Bryan Early - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Bryan Early

Business and Politics

What strategies work best for enforcing sanctions? Sanctions enforcement agencies like the US Off... more What strategies work best for enforcing sanctions? Sanctions enforcement agencies like the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) face resource limitations and political constraints in punishing domestic firms for violating sanctions. Beyond monetary fines, sanctions enforcement actions also serve a “naming and shaming” function that tarnishes violators’ reputations. Larger, higher-profile companies tend have much more at stake in terms of their reputations than smaller or less well-known firms. At the same time, punishing higher-profile companies for sanctions violations is likely to generate more publicity about the risks and potential consequences of not complying with sanctions. We theorize that OFAC should impose larger fines on high-profile companies to draw attention to those cases, make the enforcement actions more memorable, and enhance the reputational costs that they inflict. We conduct a statistical analysis of OFAC enforcement actions from 2010 to 2021 and find supp...

Coercive Diplomacy, Sanctions and International Law

Table Of Treaties, Legislation, And Other Documents European Union Council Regulation (ec) No. 53... more Table Of Treaties, Legislation, And Other Documents European Union Council Regulation (ec) No. 539/2001 of 15 March 2001, listing the third countries whose nationals must be in possession of visas when crossing the external borders and those whose nationals are exempt from that requirement 84 Council Regulation (ec) No. 2580/2001 of 27 December 2001, on specific restrictive measures directed against certain persons and entities with a view to combating terrorism 133 Council Regulation (ec) No. 881/2000 of 27 May 2002, imposing certain specific restrictive measures directed against certain persons and entities associated with Usama bin Laden, the Al-Qaida network and the Taliban, and repealing Council Regulation (ec) No. 467/2001 prohibiting the export of certain goods and services to Afghanistan, strengthening the flight ban and extending the freeze of funds and other financial resources in respect of the Taliban of Afghanistan 133

referees for helpful comments and suggestions. This material is based upon work supported by

Review of Policy Research, 2012

How does the American public assess risk when it comes to national security issues? This paper ad... more How does the American public assess risk when it comes to national security issues? This paper addresses this question by analyzing variation in citizen probability assessments of the terrorism risk of nuclear power plants. Drawing on the literature on how motivated reasoning, selective information processing, and domain specific knowledge influence public opinion, we argue that heterogeneous issue preferences and knowledge of nuclear energy and homeland security have important explanatory power. Using original data from a unique 2009 national survey in the United States, we show that Americans are divided in their probability assessments of the terrorism risk of nuclear power plants. Consistent with our theoretical expectations, individuals who support using nuclear power to meet rising energy demands, who are generally less concerned with terrorism, or who are more knowledgeable about terrorism and nuclear security tend to provide lower assessments of the likelihood that nuclear power plants increase terrorist attacks, and vice versa. The findings have implications for the literature on public opinion, risk assessment, energy policy and planning, and homeland security. .

Energy Research & Social Science, 2017

Advances in nuclear, biological, and chemical technologies have transformational potential relate... more Advances in nuclear, biological, and chemical technologies have transformational potential related to the global energy supply chain. At the same time, those advances pose significant security risks because those the same technologies can be diverted for violent purposes. Recognizing this threat, the United Nations Security Council in 2004 took the unprecedented step of invoking its Chapter VII authority to pass Resolution 1540, which obligated all UN members to develop, implement, and report on a comprehensive regulatory system for tracking the production and distribution of technology related to weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The resolution reflected a new international commitment to preventing the proliferation of WMD and a potentially revolutionary approach to transnational regulation. In contrast to traditional approaches that rely on rigorous third-party monitoring, verification, and enforcement, UNSCR 1540 relies on a more dynamic and iterative process of norm elaboration and dissemination that strengthens the social fabric necessary to react to emerging threats. While UNSCR 1540 faces ongoing challenges, it also holds promise as a model of cooperative governance in particularly complex and sensitive issues, such as those that characterize politics at the energy-security nexus.

This archive contains replication data and the supplemental appendix for the article: Stinnett, D... more This archive contains replication data and the supplemental appendix for the article: Stinnett, Douglas, Bryan Early, Cale Horne, and Johannes Karreth. 2011. "Complying by Denying: Explaining Why States Develop Nonproliferation Export Controls." International Studies Perspectives 12 (3), 308-326. We provide original data for the nonproliferation export control systems of 30 randomly selected countries, measured in multiple dimensions.

How do international institutions affect trade with sanctioned states? Despite the central role p... more How do international institutions affect trade with sanctioned states? Despite the central role played by international institutions in theories of sanctions success, little is actually known about the direct effects they have on state behavior. This paper explores the effects that institutional membership and institutional sanctions have on states’ proclivity to sanctions-bust. We test the literature’s assumption that international institutions’ sanctions are capable of preventing their members from undercutting sanctioning efforts by trading heavily with the sanctions’ target. We test this hypothesis and others via an analysis of the trade conducted with the targets of 164 sanctions episodes from 1950-2004 and the role played by five different international institutions. Surprisingly, we find only weak evidence that institutional sanctions actually reduce their members’ likelihoods of sanctions-busting and no evidence that U.N. sanctions do. We also find that members of the Europe...

Foreign Policy Analysis

In September 1991, U.S. President George H.W. Bush launched the Presidential Nuclear Initiatives ... more In September 1991, U.S. President George H.W. Bush launched the Presidential Nuclear Initiatives (PNIs), which were unilateral measures that led to the largest reductions in the American and Soviet/Russian nuclear arsenals to date. Despite their eventual success, the United States took on significant risks in launching the PNIs. To uncover the best theoretical explanation for their onset, this article uses realism, neorealism, the bureaucratic politics model, expected utility theory, and prospect theory to generate ex ante predictions regarding nuclear arms control at the end of the Cold War. It then tests the theories’ predictions against the empirical record. The results suggest that a focus on an individual decision maker—President Bush—is necessary to fully understand the PNIs and that an explanation rooted in prospect theory offers the most explanatory power. This study speaks to an important debate in discipline regarding the significance of individuals, while underscoring the...

International Area Studies Review, 2013

ABSTRACT

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Does the diffusion of nuclear programs encourage nuclear and radiological (NR) terrorism? It is a... more Does the diffusion of nuclear programs encourage nuclear and radiological (NR) terrorism? It is argued that a country's vulnerability to NR terrorism grows as the size of its nuclear program increases. The presence of expansive nuclear infrastructure facilitates terrorists' efforts to steal or acquire nuclear and radiological materials, increases the targets open to attack, and amplifies the potential economic and social-psychological consequences of related terrorist attacks. It is also argued that countries can reduce the likelihood of NR terrorism by improving nuclear security and reducing corruption. An empirical analysis of NR terrorist incidents during 1992-2006 supports for these arguments. The findings offer empirically grounded insights into the future risks of nuclear terrorism, and possible solutions are offered.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

ABSTRACT Why do governments and rebel groups employ child soldiers in some internal armed conflic... more ABSTRACT Why do governments and rebel groups employ child soldiers in some internal armed conflicts but not in others? While previous studies have examined aspects of the causes and consequences of child soldier usage, to date there has never been a comprehensive empirical analysis that has examined their worldwide usage. In this study, we develop a theory that explains the use of child soldiers as a tactical military innovation that rebel groups have greater incentives and abilities to adopt as compared to governments. As we argue, however, governments’ incentives and ability to adopt child soldiers increase dramatically if rebels adopt the tactic. According to our theory, the decision to adopt child soldiers by governments and rebel groups will be primarily driven by tactical considerations rather than the socio-demographic factors typically highlighted in the literature. To test our theory, we collected global data on the usage of child soldiers by governments and rebel groups in 109 internal armed conflicts from 1987-2007. This new data shows that governments and rebels employed child soldiers in 45% of the internal armed conflicts that took place during this period, whereas governments were the only party to employ them in 10% of the cases and rebels were the only part to do so in 26% of the cases. Our analysis of these cases using binomial and multinomial estimation techniques reveal strong support for our tactically-driven explanation of child soldier usage, especially compared to the rival socio-demographic account. Our findings have salient implications for how this problem should be understood and the policy measures that may be effective in diminishing its occurrence.

ABSTRACT Ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons are complementary technologies that dramatically ... more ABSTRACT Ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons are complementary technologies that dramatically enhance each other’s strategic utility. To date, explanations of how these military technologies proliferate have largely considered their developmental paths as separate from one another. In this study, we argue that mastering missile technology provides states with significant advantages in acquiring nuclear weapons. Both missile programs and nuclear weapons programs are costly, scientifically challenging endeavors that require the mastery of a significant body of tacit knowledge. However, missile programs are less expensive, less risky, and pose lower scientific entry barriers compared to nuclear programs. By investing in the mastery of rocket technology, states cultivate scientific-military industrial complexes (SMICs) that increase the research infrastructure and scientific and technical human capital within their countries that can also aid in nuclear weapons acquisition efforts. Furthermore, such programs provide governments with cross-applicable experience in managing expansive, interdisciplinary weapons acquisition projects. Lastly, military rocketry SMICs have significant incentives to lobby on behalf of acquiring nuclear weapons, which could spur significant additional investments in their own programs. We test our theory with a large-n analysis of the factors affecting the acquisition of nuclear weapons in 154 countries from 1945-2000. Our results provide strong support for our theory, demonstrating that mature military rocketry programs substantially contribute to countries’ ability to acquire nuclear weapons.

ABSTRACT Why do governments and rebel groups employ child soldiers in some internal armed conflic... more ABSTRACT Why do governments and rebel groups employ child soldiers in some internal armed conflicts but not in others? While previous studies have examined aspects of the causes and consequences of child soldier usage, to date there has never been a comprehensive empirical analysis that has examined their worldwide usage. In this study, we develop a theory that explains the use of child soldiers as a tactical military innovation that rebel groups have greater incentives and abilities to adopt as compared to governments. As we argue, however, governments’ incentives and ability to adopt child soldiers increase dramatically if rebels adopt the tactic. According to our theory, the decision to adopt child soldiers by governments and rebel groups will be primarily driven by tactical considerations rather than the socio-demographic factors typically highlighted in the literature. To test our theory, we collected global data on the usage of child soldiers by governments and rebel groups in 109 internal armed conflicts from 1987-2007. This new data shows that governments and rebels employed child soldiers in 45% of the internal armed conflicts that took place during this period, whereas governments were the only party to employ them in 10% of the cases and rebels were the only part to do so in 26% of the cases. Our analysis of these cases using binomial and multinomial estimation techniques reveal strong support for our tactically-driven explanation of child soldier usage, especially compared to the rival socio-demographic account. Our findings have salient implications for how this problem should be understood and the policy measures that may be effective in diminishing its occurrence.

Political Psychology, 2013

ABSTRACT This article draws upon recent findings from the field of neuroscience to explore how lo... more ABSTRACT This article draws upon recent findings from the field of neuroscience to explore how loss aversion affects foreign policy resolve. We theorize that U.S. policy makers are more resolute in pursuing preventive policies that seek to avoid losses than they are in pursuing promotive policies that seek to acquire new gains. To test our theory, we conduct the first large‐n analysis of foreign policy hypotheses derived from the neuroscience of loss aversion using data from 100 cases of U.S.‐initiated Section 301 trade disputes. The results provide strong support for the loss‐aversion‐based theory, revealing that American policy makers are willing to fight harder and hold out longer in trade disputes with preventive objectives than they are in cases with promotive ones. Our study demonstrates that hypotheses derived from neuroscientific findings can be tested using large‐n techniques in study of foreign policy, revealing a new avenue of inquiry within the field.

International Studies Perspectives, 2011

ABSTRACT The adoption of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1540 in 2004 reflects an emerging... more ABSTRACT The adoption of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1540 in 2004 reflects an emerging consensus that more should be done by the international community to address the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. UNSCR 1540 articulates a universal, legally binding obligation for all states to confront proliferation by adopting effective export control systems. To date, however, there have been no attempts to systematically analyze compliance with this new obligation, making it impossible to assess the success of this measure and the underlying causes of any shortcomings. This study addresses this by conducting a systematic empirical analysis of state compliance with UNSCR 1540. Drawing upon theories of compliance with international law, we investigate two distinct explanations for variation in the degree to which states adopt nonproliferation export controls: one based on state interests and enforcement and the other based on state capacity. Our statistical tests of these theories use a new, cross-national data set detailing the nonproliferation policies of 30 states. The empirical results indicate that compliance with international nonproliferation obligations is influenced most by a state’s economic and governmental capacities and has little to do with interest-based factors. These findings suggest that capacity-building programs are the best option for improving the implementation of UNSCR 1540 and of nonproliferation efforts in general.

Business and Politics

What strategies work best for enforcing sanctions? Sanctions enforcement agencies like the US Off... more What strategies work best for enforcing sanctions? Sanctions enforcement agencies like the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) face resource limitations and political constraints in punishing domestic firms for violating sanctions. Beyond monetary fines, sanctions enforcement actions also serve a “naming and shaming” function that tarnishes violators’ reputations. Larger, higher-profile companies tend have much more at stake in terms of their reputations than smaller or less well-known firms. At the same time, punishing higher-profile companies for sanctions violations is likely to generate more publicity about the risks and potential consequences of not complying with sanctions. We theorize that OFAC should impose larger fines on high-profile companies to draw attention to those cases, make the enforcement actions more memorable, and enhance the reputational costs that they inflict. We conduct a statistical analysis of OFAC enforcement actions from 2010 to 2021 and find supp...

Coercive Diplomacy, Sanctions and International Law

Table Of Treaties, Legislation, And Other Documents European Union Council Regulation (ec) No. 53... more Table Of Treaties, Legislation, And Other Documents European Union Council Regulation (ec) No. 539/2001 of 15 March 2001, listing the third countries whose nationals must be in possession of visas when crossing the external borders and those whose nationals are exempt from that requirement 84 Council Regulation (ec) No. 2580/2001 of 27 December 2001, on specific restrictive measures directed against certain persons and entities with a view to combating terrorism 133 Council Regulation (ec) No. 881/2000 of 27 May 2002, imposing certain specific restrictive measures directed against certain persons and entities associated with Usama bin Laden, the Al-Qaida network and the Taliban, and repealing Council Regulation (ec) No. 467/2001 prohibiting the export of certain goods and services to Afghanistan, strengthening the flight ban and extending the freeze of funds and other financial resources in respect of the Taliban of Afghanistan 133

referees for helpful comments and suggestions. This material is based upon work supported by

Review of Policy Research, 2012

How does the American public assess risk when it comes to national security issues? This paper ad... more How does the American public assess risk when it comes to national security issues? This paper addresses this question by analyzing variation in citizen probability assessments of the terrorism risk of nuclear power plants. Drawing on the literature on how motivated reasoning, selective information processing, and domain specific knowledge influence public opinion, we argue that heterogeneous issue preferences and knowledge of nuclear energy and homeland security have important explanatory power. Using original data from a unique 2009 national survey in the United States, we show that Americans are divided in their probability assessments of the terrorism risk of nuclear power plants. Consistent with our theoretical expectations, individuals who support using nuclear power to meet rising energy demands, who are generally less concerned with terrorism, or who are more knowledgeable about terrorism and nuclear security tend to provide lower assessments of the likelihood that nuclear power plants increase terrorist attacks, and vice versa. The findings have implications for the literature on public opinion, risk assessment, energy policy and planning, and homeland security. .

Energy Research & Social Science, 2017

Advances in nuclear, biological, and chemical technologies have transformational potential relate... more Advances in nuclear, biological, and chemical technologies have transformational potential related to the global energy supply chain. At the same time, those advances pose significant security risks because those the same technologies can be diverted for violent purposes. Recognizing this threat, the United Nations Security Council in 2004 took the unprecedented step of invoking its Chapter VII authority to pass Resolution 1540, which obligated all UN members to develop, implement, and report on a comprehensive regulatory system for tracking the production and distribution of technology related to weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The resolution reflected a new international commitment to preventing the proliferation of WMD and a potentially revolutionary approach to transnational regulation. In contrast to traditional approaches that rely on rigorous third-party monitoring, verification, and enforcement, UNSCR 1540 relies on a more dynamic and iterative process of norm elaboration and dissemination that strengthens the social fabric necessary to react to emerging threats. While UNSCR 1540 faces ongoing challenges, it also holds promise as a model of cooperative governance in particularly complex and sensitive issues, such as those that characterize politics at the energy-security nexus.

This archive contains replication data and the supplemental appendix for the article: Stinnett, D... more This archive contains replication data and the supplemental appendix for the article: Stinnett, Douglas, Bryan Early, Cale Horne, and Johannes Karreth. 2011. "Complying by Denying: Explaining Why States Develop Nonproliferation Export Controls." International Studies Perspectives 12 (3), 308-326. We provide original data for the nonproliferation export control systems of 30 randomly selected countries, measured in multiple dimensions.

How do international institutions affect trade with sanctioned states? Despite the central role p... more How do international institutions affect trade with sanctioned states? Despite the central role played by international institutions in theories of sanctions success, little is actually known about the direct effects they have on state behavior. This paper explores the effects that institutional membership and institutional sanctions have on states’ proclivity to sanctions-bust. We test the literature’s assumption that international institutions’ sanctions are capable of preventing their members from undercutting sanctioning efforts by trading heavily with the sanctions’ target. We test this hypothesis and others via an analysis of the trade conducted with the targets of 164 sanctions episodes from 1950-2004 and the role played by five different international institutions. Surprisingly, we find only weak evidence that institutional sanctions actually reduce their members’ likelihoods of sanctions-busting and no evidence that U.N. sanctions do. We also find that members of the Europe...

Foreign Policy Analysis

In September 1991, U.S. President George H.W. Bush launched the Presidential Nuclear Initiatives ... more In September 1991, U.S. President George H.W. Bush launched the Presidential Nuclear Initiatives (PNIs), which were unilateral measures that led to the largest reductions in the American and Soviet/Russian nuclear arsenals to date. Despite their eventual success, the United States took on significant risks in launching the PNIs. To uncover the best theoretical explanation for their onset, this article uses realism, neorealism, the bureaucratic politics model, expected utility theory, and prospect theory to generate ex ante predictions regarding nuclear arms control at the end of the Cold War. It then tests the theories’ predictions against the empirical record. The results suggest that a focus on an individual decision maker—President Bush—is necessary to fully understand the PNIs and that an explanation rooted in prospect theory offers the most explanatory power. This study speaks to an important debate in discipline regarding the significance of individuals, while underscoring the...

International Area Studies Review, 2013

ABSTRACT

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

Does the diffusion of nuclear programs encourage nuclear and radiological (NR) terrorism? It is a... more Does the diffusion of nuclear programs encourage nuclear and radiological (NR) terrorism? It is argued that a country's vulnerability to NR terrorism grows as the size of its nuclear program increases. The presence of expansive nuclear infrastructure facilitates terrorists' efforts to steal or acquire nuclear and radiological materials, increases the targets open to attack, and amplifies the potential economic and social-psychological consequences of related terrorist attacks. It is also argued that countries can reduce the likelihood of NR terrorism by improving nuclear security and reducing corruption. An empirical analysis of NR terrorist incidents during 1992-2006 supports for these arguments. The findings offer empirically grounded insights into the future risks of nuclear terrorism, and possible solutions are offered.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

ABSTRACT Why do governments and rebel groups employ child soldiers in some internal armed conflic... more ABSTRACT Why do governments and rebel groups employ child soldiers in some internal armed conflicts but not in others? While previous studies have examined aspects of the causes and consequences of child soldier usage, to date there has never been a comprehensive empirical analysis that has examined their worldwide usage. In this study, we develop a theory that explains the use of child soldiers as a tactical military innovation that rebel groups have greater incentives and abilities to adopt as compared to governments. As we argue, however, governments’ incentives and ability to adopt child soldiers increase dramatically if rebels adopt the tactic. According to our theory, the decision to adopt child soldiers by governments and rebel groups will be primarily driven by tactical considerations rather than the socio-demographic factors typically highlighted in the literature. To test our theory, we collected global data on the usage of child soldiers by governments and rebel groups in 109 internal armed conflicts from 1987-2007. This new data shows that governments and rebels employed child soldiers in 45% of the internal armed conflicts that took place during this period, whereas governments were the only party to employ them in 10% of the cases and rebels were the only part to do so in 26% of the cases. Our analysis of these cases using binomial and multinomial estimation techniques reveal strong support for our tactically-driven explanation of child soldier usage, especially compared to the rival socio-demographic account. Our findings have salient implications for how this problem should be understood and the policy measures that may be effective in diminishing its occurrence.

ABSTRACT Ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons are complementary technologies that dramatically ... more ABSTRACT Ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons are complementary technologies that dramatically enhance each other’s strategic utility. To date, explanations of how these military technologies proliferate have largely considered their developmental paths as separate from one another. In this study, we argue that mastering missile technology provides states with significant advantages in acquiring nuclear weapons. Both missile programs and nuclear weapons programs are costly, scientifically challenging endeavors that require the mastery of a significant body of tacit knowledge. However, missile programs are less expensive, less risky, and pose lower scientific entry barriers compared to nuclear programs. By investing in the mastery of rocket technology, states cultivate scientific-military industrial complexes (SMICs) that increase the research infrastructure and scientific and technical human capital within their countries that can also aid in nuclear weapons acquisition efforts. Furthermore, such programs provide governments with cross-applicable experience in managing expansive, interdisciplinary weapons acquisition projects. Lastly, military rocketry SMICs have significant incentives to lobby on behalf of acquiring nuclear weapons, which could spur significant additional investments in their own programs. We test our theory with a large-n analysis of the factors affecting the acquisition of nuclear weapons in 154 countries from 1945-2000. Our results provide strong support for our theory, demonstrating that mature military rocketry programs substantially contribute to countries’ ability to acquire nuclear weapons.

ABSTRACT Why do governments and rebel groups employ child soldiers in some internal armed conflic... more ABSTRACT Why do governments and rebel groups employ child soldiers in some internal armed conflicts but not in others? While previous studies have examined aspects of the causes and consequences of child soldier usage, to date there has never been a comprehensive empirical analysis that has examined their worldwide usage. In this study, we develop a theory that explains the use of child soldiers as a tactical military innovation that rebel groups have greater incentives and abilities to adopt as compared to governments. As we argue, however, governments’ incentives and ability to adopt child soldiers increase dramatically if rebels adopt the tactic. According to our theory, the decision to adopt child soldiers by governments and rebel groups will be primarily driven by tactical considerations rather than the socio-demographic factors typically highlighted in the literature. To test our theory, we collected global data on the usage of child soldiers by governments and rebel groups in 109 internal armed conflicts from 1987-2007. This new data shows that governments and rebels employed child soldiers in 45% of the internal armed conflicts that took place during this period, whereas governments were the only party to employ them in 10% of the cases and rebels were the only part to do so in 26% of the cases. Our analysis of these cases using binomial and multinomial estimation techniques reveal strong support for our tactically-driven explanation of child soldier usage, especially compared to the rival socio-demographic account. Our findings have salient implications for how this problem should be understood and the policy measures that may be effective in diminishing its occurrence.

Political Psychology, 2013

ABSTRACT This article draws upon recent findings from the field of neuroscience to explore how lo... more ABSTRACT This article draws upon recent findings from the field of neuroscience to explore how loss aversion affects foreign policy resolve. We theorize that U.S. policy makers are more resolute in pursuing preventive policies that seek to avoid losses than they are in pursuing promotive policies that seek to acquire new gains. To test our theory, we conduct the first large‐n analysis of foreign policy hypotheses derived from the neuroscience of loss aversion using data from 100 cases of U.S.‐initiated Section 301 trade disputes. The results provide strong support for the loss‐aversion‐based theory, revealing that American policy makers are willing to fight harder and hold out longer in trade disputes with preventive objectives than they are in cases with promotive ones. Our study demonstrates that hypotheses derived from neuroscientific findings can be tested using large‐n techniques in study of foreign policy, revealing a new avenue of inquiry within the field.

International Studies Perspectives, 2011

ABSTRACT The adoption of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1540 in 2004 reflects an emerging... more ABSTRACT The adoption of UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1540 in 2004 reflects an emerging consensus that more should be done by the international community to address the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. UNSCR 1540 articulates a universal, legally binding obligation for all states to confront proliferation by adopting effective export control systems. To date, however, there have been no attempts to systematically analyze compliance with this new obligation, making it impossible to assess the success of this measure and the underlying causes of any shortcomings. This study addresses this by conducting a systematic empirical analysis of state compliance with UNSCR 1540. Drawing upon theories of compliance with international law, we investigate two distinct explanations for variation in the degree to which states adopt nonproliferation export controls: one based on state interests and enforcement and the other based on state capacity. Our statistical tests of these theories use a new, cross-national data set detailing the nonproliferation policies of 30 states. The empirical results indicate that compliance with international nonproliferation obligations is influenced most by a state’s economic and governmental capacities and has little to do with interest-based factors. These findings suggest that capacity-building programs are the best option for improving the implementation of UNSCR 1540 and of nonproliferation efforts in general.