Catherine M Bulman - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
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Papers by Catherine M Bulman
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel int... more While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate chan...
Marine and Freshwater Research
The demersal fish community on the mid-slope off southern Tasmania in south-eastern Australia is ... more The demersal fish community on the mid-slope off southern Tasmania in south-eastern Australia is dominated by orange roughy Hoplostethus atlanticus (Trachichthyidae), several species of oreosomatids, macrourids, squalids, alepocephalids and a synaphobranchid eel. Cluster analysis based on diet dissimilarities of proportional prey weight identified five major trophic guilds: pyrosome-feeders, crustacean feeders, piscivores, benthopelagic omnivores and benthic-invertebrate feeders. Overall, the fish fed predominantly on pelagic or benthopelagic prey, consistent with other trophic studies in the Australasian region and the Northern Hemisphere. H. atlanticus, warty dory Allocyttus verrucosus, and the macrourid Coryphaenoides serrulatus were benthopelagic omnivores that ate mesopelagic fishes, crustaceans and squid. The first two species ate more mesopelagic fishes as their sizes increased. The squalids were predominantly piscivorous but might also scavenge. Macrourids were benthic-inver...
This assessment of the ecological impacts of the shark gillnet sub-fishery was undertaken using t... more This assessment of the ecological impacts of the shark gillnet sub-fishery was undertaken using the ERAEF method version 9.2. ERAEF stands for “Ecological Risk Assessment for Effect of Fishing”, and was developed jointly by CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, and the Australian Fisheries Management Authority. ERAEF provides a hierarchical framework for a comprehensive assessment of the ecological risks arising from fishing, with impacts assessed against five ecological components – target species; by-product and by-catch species; threatened, endangered and protected (TEP) species; habitats; and (ecological) communities. ERAEF proceeds through four stages of analysis: scoping; an expert judgement-based Level 1 analysis (SICA – Scale Intensity Consequence Analysis); an empirically based Level 2 analysis (PSA – Productivity Susceptibility Analysis); and a model based Level 3 analysis. This hierarchical approach provides a cost-efficient way of screening hazards, with increasing time...
presenting no real concern for the target species. The operators prosecute the fishery with a hig... more presenting no real concern for the target species. The operators prosecute the fishery with a high level compliance and have shown integrity by self-imposing precautions to reduce threat to TEP species. The major concern that needs further monitoring and investigation is the impact on porbeagles and seabirds, particularly if effort in the fishery increases. Two ecological issues are highlighted from this ERAEF assessment of the mid-water trawl sub-fishery at Heard and McDonald Island. Firstly and most importantly there is a need for continued monitoring of seabird interactions to ensure mandatory and recently introduced voluntary mitigation measures are effective in maintaining seabird mortality at sustainable levels. Secondly there is a need to monitor catches of porbeagle shark (currently around 7 tonnes over the last five years) and ensure these catches are sustainable. A further consideration is the potential for mid-water trawl gear to interact with beaked whales and dolphins. ...
Seamounts: Ecology, Fisheries & Conservation, 2007
Marine Ecology Progress Series, 1992
Marine and Freshwater Research, 1995
The development of the eggs of deep-sea fish has seldom been described. The eggs of orange roughy... more The development of the eggs of deep-sea fish has seldom been described. The eggs of orange roughy (Hoplostethus atlanticus), a mid-slope benthopelagic fish, were fertilized and incubated at three temperatures. Those incubated at 7�C hatched at 13 days; wild eggs were estimated to hatch at 7.3 days. Their development rate was similar to that of eggs of fish from other orders and of shallower- living species. From depth-stratified plankton samples, early-stage eggs were found at 500-700 m. Their buoyancy was estimated to be 6.02 kg m-3, the upper end of the range of known fish-egg buoyancies. The eggs rose to the upper mixed layer at an estimated 23.8 m h-1, which is faster than ascent rates reported for other fishes. Their relative buoyancy and large size would be the reason for this faster rate. However, large egg size is apparently not an adaptation to enhance development rate; the more rapid rise into warmer water reduces development time but does not fully compensate for the slow...
Marine and Freshwater Research, 1987
Densities of the brittle star O. fidelis at a site on the upper continental slope (420-580 m) off... more Densities of the brittle star O. fidelis at a site on the upper continental slope (420-580 m) off eastern Tasmania, Australia, were calculated from underwater photographs. Their beds covered 61% of the substratum, with a mean density of 348 animals m-2 (52.2 g m-2). The starfish Mediaster australiensis, which was restricted to O. fidelis beds, had a mean density of 0.09 animals m-2 (5.5 g m-2). Gut analyses of trawled M. australiensis confirmed that they are predators of 0. fidelis, as were several common benthic fish species.
Marine and Freshwater Research, 1999
Egg production of the blue grenadier, Macruronus novaezelandiae, spawning stock off western Tasma... more Egg production of the blue grenadier, Macruronus novaezelandiae, spawning stock off western Tasmania was surveyed from June through September in 1994 and 1995. In each year, daily egg production rates were calculated for each of three surveys and a normal curve was fitted to estimate annual egg production. The CV for the egg production estimate for the survey at the peak of the 1995 season was 14%. Daily egg mortality was not significant in any survey, but a value of 5% was assumed. The spawning biomass of blue grenadier on the west coast of Tasmania was estimated to be between 83 660 and 100 073 t in 1994 and between 59 727 and 71 376 t in 1995. Confidence limits of the estimates were obtained by a bootstrap where the highly skewed egg density data were resampled. Biomass was approximately inversely proportional to incubation time. Increases or decreases in mortality resulted in slightly smaller increases or decreases of biomass respectively. Uncertainty of the sex ratio between sp...
Marine and Freshwater Research, 1995
An egg survey was carried out in 1992 to estimate the biomass of the orange roughy stock that spa... more An egg survey was carried out in 1992 to estimate the biomass of the orange roughy stock that spawns off north-eastern Tasmania. Spawning occurs at depths of 700-1000 m around a single seamount from early July through early August. Orange roughy have determinate fecundity, and their fecundity and the depth distribution and development rate of the eggs are described elsewhere. A random stratified survey was designed for a limited area around the spawning site in order to sample the eggs fully during their first day of development. The eggs were sampled with vertical tows from 1000 m to the surface. There was no evidence of significant mortality or other egg loss during the first day after spawning, when the eggs are mostly below 400 m. Subsequently, egg numbers declined rapidly at an instantaneous loss rate of 0.036 h-1, primariIy through advection out of the survey area. The estimated biomass of spawning fish was 27 445 t. From the proportion of non-spawning fish in the population (...
Ecological Modelling, 2013
Biological Conservation, 2003
This assessment of the ecological impacts of the shark gillnet sub-fishery was undertaken using t... more This assessment of the ecological impacts of the shark gillnet sub-fishery was undertaken using the ERAEF method version 9.2. ERAEF stands for “Ecological Risk Assessment for Effect of Fishing”, and was developed jointly by CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, and the Australian Fisheries Management Authority. ERAEF provides a hierarchical framework for a comprehensive assessment of the ecological risks arising from fishing, with impacts assessed against five ecological components – target species; by-product and by-catch species; threatened, endangered and protected (TEP) species; habitats; and (ecological) communities. ERAEF proceeds through four stages of analysis: scoping; an expert judgement-based Level 1 analysis (SICA – Scale Intensity Consequence Analysis); an empirically based Level 2 analysis (PSA – Productivity Susceptibility Analysis); and a model based Level 3 analysis. This hierarchical approach provides a cost-efficient way of screening hazards, with increasing time...
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel int... more While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate chan...
Marine and Freshwater Research
The demersal fish community on the mid-slope off southern Tasmania in south-eastern Australia is ... more The demersal fish community on the mid-slope off southern Tasmania in south-eastern Australia is dominated by orange roughy Hoplostethus atlanticus (Trachichthyidae), several species of oreosomatids, macrourids, squalids, alepocephalids and a synaphobranchid eel. Cluster analysis based on diet dissimilarities of proportional prey weight identified five major trophic guilds: pyrosome-feeders, crustacean feeders, piscivores, benthopelagic omnivores and benthic-invertebrate feeders. Overall, the fish fed predominantly on pelagic or benthopelagic prey, consistent with other trophic studies in the Australasian region and the Northern Hemisphere. H. atlanticus, warty dory Allocyttus verrucosus, and the macrourid Coryphaenoides serrulatus were benthopelagic omnivores that ate mesopelagic fishes, crustaceans and squid. The first two species ate more mesopelagic fishes as their sizes increased. The squalids were predominantly piscivorous but might also scavenge. Macrourids were benthic-inver...
This assessment of the ecological impacts of the shark gillnet sub-fishery was undertaken using t... more This assessment of the ecological impacts of the shark gillnet sub-fishery was undertaken using the ERAEF method version 9.2. ERAEF stands for “Ecological Risk Assessment for Effect of Fishing”, and was developed jointly by CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, and the Australian Fisheries Management Authority. ERAEF provides a hierarchical framework for a comprehensive assessment of the ecological risks arising from fishing, with impacts assessed against five ecological components – target species; by-product and by-catch species; threatened, endangered and protected (TEP) species; habitats; and (ecological) communities. ERAEF proceeds through four stages of analysis: scoping; an expert judgement-based Level 1 analysis (SICA – Scale Intensity Consequence Analysis); an empirically based Level 2 analysis (PSA – Productivity Susceptibility Analysis); and a model based Level 3 analysis. This hierarchical approach provides a cost-efficient way of screening hazards, with increasing time...
presenting no real concern for the target species. The operators prosecute the fishery with a hig... more presenting no real concern for the target species. The operators prosecute the fishery with a high level compliance and have shown integrity by self-imposing precautions to reduce threat to TEP species. The major concern that needs further monitoring and investigation is the impact on porbeagles and seabirds, particularly if effort in the fishery increases. Two ecological issues are highlighted from this ERAEF assessment of the mid-water trawl sub-fishery at Heard and McDonald Island. Firstly and most importantly there is a need for continued monitoring of seabird interactions to ensure mandatory and recently introduced voluntary mitigation measures are effective in maintaining seabird mortality at sustainable levels. Secondly there is a need to monitor catches of porbeagle shark (currently around 7 tonnes over the last five years) and ensure these catches are sustainable. A further consideration is the potential for mid-water trawl gear to interact with beaked whales and dolphins. ...
Seamounts: Ecology, Fisheries & Conservation, 2007
Marine Ecology Progress Series, 1992
Marine and Freshwater Research, 1995
The development of the eggs of deep-sea fish has seldom been described. The eggs of orange roughy... more The development of the eggs of deep-sea fish has seldom been described. The eggs of orange roughy (Hoplostethus atlanticus), a mid-slope benthopelagic fish, were fertilized and incubated at three temperatures. Those incubated at 7�C hatched at 13 days; wild eggs were estimated to hatch at 7.3 days. Their development rate was similar to that of eggs of fish from other orders and of shallower- living species. From depth-stratified plankton samples, early-stage eggs were found at 500-700 m. Their buoyancy was estimated to be 6.02 kg m-3, the upper end of the range of known fish-egg buoyancies. The eggs rose to the upper mixed layer at an estimated 23.8 m h-1, which is faster than ascent rates reported for other fishes. Their relative buoyancy and large size would be the reason for this faster rate. However, large egg size is apparently not an adaptation to enhance development rate; the more rapid rise into warmer water reduces development time but does not fully compensate for the slow...
Marine and Freshwater Research, 1987
Densities of the brittle star O. fidelis at a site on the upper continental slope (420-580 m) off... more Densities of the brittle star O. fidelis at a site on the upper continental slope (420-580 m) off eastern Tasmania, Australia, were calculated from underwater photographs. Their beds covered 61% of the substratum, with a mean density of 348 animals m-2 (52.2 g m-2). The starfish Mediaster australiensis, which was restricted to O. fidelis beds, had a mean density of 0.09 animals m-2 (5.5 g m-2). Gut analyses of trawled M. australiensis confirmed that they are predators of 0. fidelis, as were several common benthic fish species.
Marine and Freshwater Research, 1999
Egg production of the blue grenadier, Macruronus novaezelandiae, spawning stock off western Tasma... more Egg production of the blue grenadier, Macruronus novaezelandiae, spawning stock off western Tasmania was surveyed from June through September in 1994 and 1995. In each year, daily egg production rates were calculated for each of three surveys and a normal curve was fitted to estimate annual egg production. The CV for the egg production estimate for the survey at the peak of the 1995 season was 14%. Daily egg mortality was not significant in any survey, but a value of 5% was assumed. The spawning biomass of blue grenadier on the west coast of Tasmania was estimated to be between 83 660 and 100 073 t in 1994 and between 59 727 and 71 376 t in 1995. Confidence limits of the estimates were obtained by a bootstrap where the highly skewed egg density data were resampled. Biomass was approximately inversely proportional to incubation time. Increases or decreases in mortality resulted in slightly smaller increases or decreases of biomass respectively. Uncertainty of the sex ratio between sp...
Marine and Freshwater Research, 1995
An egg survey was carried out in 1992 to estimate the biomass of the orange roughy stock that spa... more An egg survey was carried out in 1992 to estimate the biomass of the orange roughy stock that spawns off north-eastern Tasmania. Spawning occurs at depths of 700-1000 m around a single seamount from early July through early August. Orange roughy have determinate fecundity, and their fecundity and the depth distribution and development rate of the eggs are described elsewhere. A random stratified survey was designed for a limited area around the spawning site in order to sample the eggs fully during their first day of development. The eggs were sampled with vertical tows from 1000 m to the surface. There was no evidence of significant mortality or other egg loss during the first day after spawning, when the eggs are mostly below 400 m. Subsequently, egg numbers declined rapidly at an instantaneous loss rate of 0.036 h-1, primariIy through advection out of the survey area. The estimated biomass of spawning fish was 27 445 t. From the proportion of non-spawning fish in the population (...
Ecological Modelling, 2013
Biological Conservation, 2003
This assessment of the ecological impacts of the shark gillnet sub-fishery was undertaken using t... more This assessment of the ecological impacts of the shark gillnet sub-fishery was undertaken using the ERAEF method version 9.2. ERAEF stands for “Ecological Risk Assessment for Effect of Fishing”, and was developed jointly by CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, and the Australian Fisheries Management Authority. ERAEF provides a hierarchical framework for a comprehensive assessment of the ecological risks arising from fishing, with impacts assessed against five ecological components – target species; by-product and by-catch species; threatened, endangered and protected (TEP) species; habitats; and (ecological) communities. ERAEF proceeds through four stages of analysis: scoping; an expert judgement-based Level 1 analysis (SICA – Scale Intensity Consequence Analysis); an empirically based Level 2 analysis (PSA – Productivity Susceptibility Analysis); and a model based Level 3 analysis. This hierarchical approach provides a cost-efficient way of screening hazards, with increasing time...