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Papers by Cécile Couharde

La mise en place de l’euro suscite de nombreuses questions sur l’instabilite des changes qui pour... more La mise en place de l’euro suscite de nombreuses questions sur l’instabilite des changes qui pourrait en resulter. Un certain nombre de travaux accreditent l’idee d’une plus forte volatilite de l’euro en raison du faible degre d’ouverture de l’Union europeenne et de l’absence d’objectif de change de la Banque centrale europeenne. En revanche, peu d’etudes se prononcent sur le niveau

Les termes de l'echange des pays exportateurs de produits primaires enregistrent les mouvemen... more Les termes de l'echange des pays exportateurs de produits primaires enregistrent les mouvements de grande ampleur des prix mondiaux. Ces termes de l'echange constituent l'un des determinants essentiels des taux de change reels de ces economies. L'estimation de taux de change d'equilibre de long terme nous permet de chiffrer cet impact, pour les exportateurs de petrole, d'une part, et ceux d'autres produits primaires, de l'autre. Nous pouvons alors evaluer les "mesalignements" des monnaies par les ecarts entre les taux de change reels observes et leurs valeurs d'equilibre. Peut-on expliquer ces ecarts ? Dans le cas des pays dont les devises sont ancrees au dollar ou a l'euro, l'explication reside dans le comportement de la monnaie d'ancrage. Lorsque les mouvements de la devise-ancre sont importants, ils affectent les taux de change reels des monnaies ancrees davantage encore que ne le font les termes de l'echange.Creation-...

International Economics, 2013

ABSTRACT The terms of trade of commodity-exporting countries are directly affected by the large-s... more ABSTRACT The terms of trade of commodity-exporting countries are directly affected by the large-scale swings of worldwide prices. These terms of trade represent one of the key determinants of the real exchange rates of these economies. By estimating long-term equilibrium exchange rates we can gauge their impact for oil exporters and for exporters of other commodities. We then evaluate currency ‘misalignments’ as the discrepancies between the observed real exchange rates and their equilibrium values. Can these misalignments themselves be explained? In countries whose currencies are anchored to the dollar or to the euro, the misalignments are shown to depend on the behaviour of the anchor currency. When the anchor currency appreciates, the anchored currencies tend to be overvalued; when it depreciates, their undervaluation is likely.

Journal of International Money and Finance, 2014

ABSTRACT Oil-exporting countries usually experience large current account improvements following ... more ABSTRACT Oil-exporting countries usually experience large current account improvements following a sharp increase in oil prices. In this paper, we investigate this oil price-current account relationship on a sample of 27 oil-exporting economies. Relying upon the estimation of panel smooth transition regression models over the 1980-2010 period, we provide evidence that refines the traditional interpretation of oil price effects on current accounts. While current accounts are positively affected by oil price variations, this effect is nonlinear and depends critically on the degree of financial development of oil-exporting economies. More specifically, oil price variations exert a stronger impact on the current account position for less financially developed countries, this influence diminishing with financial deepness.

&amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/titre&amp;amp;amp;amp;gt; The aim of this article is to stud... more &amp;amp;amp;amp;lt;/titre&amp;amp;amp;amp;gt; The aim of this article is to study the vulnerability of the New-Caledonian economy from the analysis of its genuine saving. The calculation of the genuine savings shows that at first glance the New-Caledonian economy doesn?t show vulnerability signs over the period 1970-2007. However, the analysis of its trajectory reveals threshold effects in the nickel sector, thresholds from which

Environment and Development Economics, 2014

We investigate the consequences of remittances inflows on the macroeconomic performance of West A... more We investigate the consequences of remittances inflows on the macroeconomic performance of West African countries over the 1985–2007 period. We take into account the exposure of those countries to climate variability by estimating a PCHVAR model which allows heterogeneity between countries’ responses to rainfall shocks. Our results show that the impact of remittances on macroeconomic performance is highly sensitive to those shocks. In particular, when drought conditions prevail, remittances no longer exert any short-term spillover effects on growth and may increase a situation of economic dependence, by spurring agricultural imports.

Open Economies Review, 2003

This paper presents an extension of the macroeconomic exchange rate balance approach. This extens... more This paper presents an extension of the macroeconomic exchange rate balance approach. This extension comprises two new aspects. Firstly, it is based on a multinational framework which allows for macroeconomic linkages between countries. Secondly, it uses a procedure that does not require a full modeling of the world economy to derive a consistent set of equilibrium exchange rates. The findings

The introduction of the euro raised two questions: what was the appropriate exchange rate of the ... more The introduction of the euro raised two questions: what was the appropriate exchange rate of the European currencies for entry in the EMU? What were the main determinants of the external value of the euro? To bring some insight in the matter, the concept of equilibrium exchange rates was used, which illustrated the divergence between exchange rates and long run fundamentals. For each country, the equilibrium exchange rate was calculated from a simplified model of external trade which, in its reduced form, allows one to explicitly represent the structural determinants of exchange rates. To obtain supplementary results we also make an analysis of unit cost levels. The results suggest that although the central parities in force within the EMS were rather satisfactory and ought not to give rise subsequently to intra-European tensions, the European currencies were overvalued in terms of their equilibrium exchange rates and the dollar was undervalued. This misalignment thus provides suppo...

In this paper, we analyse currencies' misalignments of the CFA zone countries and the adjust... more In this paper, we analyse currencies' misalignments of the CFA zone countries and the adjustment process of their real effective exchange rates towards their equilibrium level over the period 1985-2007. To this end, we firstly estimate, using panel cointegration techniques, a long term relationship between the real effective exchange rate and economic fundamentals. Secondly, we estimate a panel smooth transition error correction model in order to take into account non linearities in the convergence process of real exchange rates towards their equilibrium level. Two main results emerge from our analysis. Firstly, the real appreciation of effective exchange rates in the CFA zone countries from the 2000s did not translate, in 2007, into a real overvaluation comparable to that occurring before the devaluation of the CFA franc in 1994. However, some countries are exceptions, indicating a strong heterogeneity within the CFA zone. Finally, the convergence process of real effective exc...

Document de travail cepii, 2008

Journal of Macroeconomics, 2013