Julio Campuzano - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Julio Campuzano

Nicotine Tob Res, 2004

The present study describes salivary cotinine levels and their relationship to cigarettes smoked ... more The present study describes salivary cotinine levels and their relationship to cigarettes smoked per day in Mexican smokers. Using a sampling strategy based on the number of cigarettes per day, we recruited 1,222 smokers from Mexico City and the state of Morelos in Mexico during 1999. Smoking behaviors and other factors known to affect nicotine intake and cotinine level were identified in an interview using a standardized questionnaire. Salivary cotinine was measured by capillary gas chromatography with nitrogen-phosphorus detection. We used generalized additive models to describe the relationship between salivary cotinine levels and variables of interest. The mean age of the population was 39.7 years (SD~15.6 years), with a mean cotinine level of 194.7 ng/ml (SD~134.8; range~10.1-767). Participants smoked a mean of 15.5 cigarettes per day (SD~11.3). Salivary cotinine and cigarettes smoked per day were positively related, although the association was not linear, flattening above 20 cigarettes per day. After adjusting for cigarettes per day, we found that significant predictors of cotinine levels included age, body mass index, cigarette producer, and smoking behavior variables. These results may have implications for dosing with nicotine medications to aid smoking cessation in Mexican smokers and suggest that whether the cigarette is labeled light or regular has no relationship to nicotine dose from smoking cigarettes.

Salud Pública de México, 2016

To assess prostate cancer (PC) mortality in Mexico from 1980 to 2013, according to the state marg... more To assess prostate cancer (PC) mortality in Mexico from 1980 to 2013, according to the state marginalization level. Using age-adjusted rates in men ≥ 40 years old, we estimated trends and age-cohort-period effects of PC mortality from 1980-2013 according to state marginalization status by using a joinpoint regression model and a Poisson regression model proposed by Holford. The PC mortality risk has increased nationwide at a constant rate (2% annually) during the past 13 years. The highest annual increase was observed among states with very high (4.4%) and high (7.7%) marginalization rates. In contrast, states with very low levels of marginalization showed a significant reduction of 1.5% per year. The main changes were observed in the 1945-1950 birth year cohorts. Differences in PC mortality across regions of Mexico may reflect differences in the timing of the diagnosis and treatment of PC.

Lancet (London, England), Jan 8, 2016

Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, fina... more Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1-4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980-2015. We also estimated numbers and r...

Lancet (London, England), Oct 8, 2016

In transitioning from the Millennium Development Goal to the Sustainable Development Goal era, it... more In transitioning from the Millennium Development Goal to the Sustainable Development Goal era, it is imperative to comprehensively assess progress toward reducing maternal mortality to identify areas of success, remaining challenges, and frame policy discussions. We aimed to quantify maternal mortality throughout the world by underlying cause and age from 1990 to 2015. We estimated maternal mortality at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2015 for ages 10-54 years by systematically compiling and processing all available data sources from 186 of 195 countries and territories, 11 of which were analysed at the subnational level. We quantified eight underlying causes of maternal death and four timing categories, improving estimation methods since GBD 2013 for adult all-cause mortality, HIV-related maternal mortality, and late maternal death. Secondary analyses then allowed systematic examination of drivers of trends, including the relation between maternal mortality a...

Lancet (London, England), Jan 8, 2016

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robus... more Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015...

Lancet (London, England), Jan 19, 2016

In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).... more In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between ...

The Lancet HIV, 2016

Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluat... more Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. Bill…

Revista De Salud Publica, Jun 28, 2011

Herrera -Representaciones sociales relación 497 Rev. salud pública. 12 (3): 497-509, 2010 Medidas... more Herrera -Representaciones sociales relación 497 Rev. salud pública. 12 (3): 497-509, 2010 Medidas de prevención primaria para controlar lesiones y muertes en peatones y fomentar la seguridad vial ABSTRACT At least 30 % of traffic-related injuries involve pedestrians. These events typically result in incapacitating physical injury and may even cause death. Productive-aged Revisiones/Reviews REVISTA DE SALUD PÚBLICA · Volumen 12 (3), Junio 2010

Salud Publica De Mexico, 2010

... Clicerio González-Villalpando, MD, MACP, I,II ; Ruy López-Ridaura, MD, DSc, I,II ; Julio Césa... more ... Clicerio González-Villalpando, MD, MACP, I,II ; Ruy López-Ridaura, MD, DSc, I,II ; Julio César Campuzano, MD, DSc, I ; María Elena González-Villalpando, MD. ... Andrade-Rodríguez HJ, Valadez-Castillo FJ, Hernández-Sierra JF, Gordillo-Moscoso A, Dávila-Esqueda ME, Diaz ...

Lancet (London, England), Jan 10, 2015

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a s... more The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental...

The Lancet, 2015

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all availabl... more Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Lancet (London, England), Jan 7, 2015

Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and year... more Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally...

Salud Pública de …, 2010

... Clicerio González-Villalpando, MD, MACP, I,II ; Ruy López-Ridaura, MD, DSc, I,II ; Julio Césa... more ... Clicerio González-Villalpando, MD, MACP, I,II ; Ruy López-Ridaura, MD, DSc, I,II ; Julio César Campuzano, MD, DSc, I ; María Elena González-Villalpando, MD. ... Andrade-Rodríguez HJ, Valadez-Castillo FJ, Hernández-Sierra JF, Gordillo-Moscoso A, Dávila-Esqueda ME, Diaz ...

Injury Prevention, 2013

Objective To describe the process for implementing an intervention to prevent pedestrian injuries... more Objective To describe the process for implementing an intervention to prevent pedestrian injuries in Cuernavaca, Mexico, using a multidisciplinary and evidence-based approach. Methodology This study included two phases with several stages. The first was an overall assessment of pedestrian mortality in Cuernavaca that included a comparison of pedestrian mortality between Cuernavaca and the rest of Morelos State (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007), an analysis and geocoding of pedestrian injuries (2008)(2009), and a description of techniques for selecting and analysing clustered events using road audits. The second phase focused on selecting an intervention through a review of the literature seeking the 'best evidence' adaptable to the local context and a methodological evaluation for implementation including techniques for cluster randomisation and for the evaluation of possible effects of the intervention. Results Between 2008 and 2009, in Cuernavaca there were 620 pedestrian injury events: 59.4% were men, the mean age was 36.3 years, 70% occurred during daylight hours, 55% had mild severity and there were no differences by sex ( p>0.05). We generated evidence, that when combined with the results from a systematic search of the literature, provided sufficient information for the implementation of a pedestrian injury prevention intervention. Conclusions A combination of strategies and disciplines makes it possible to comprehensively address this public health problem, allowing interventions to strengthen aspects of pedestrian safety while accounting for characteristics of the local context; the promotion of local measures, of low cost and high impact, with modifications to the road infrastructure, are more effective in addressing pedestrian vulnerabilities.

Background: Road traffic injuries and fatalities have increased in Colombia despite that 2011-202... more Background: Road traffic injuries and fatalities have increased in Colombia despite that 2011-2020 had been declared as the Decade of Action for Road Safety in the world. Then, this paper aims to describe the trends of motorcycle mortality patterns in Colombia from 2000-2013.

Methods: A longitudinal study is carried out using mortality records from the Colombian National Department of Statistics, and following the International Classification of Diseases -ICD-10 V200 to V299.

Results: From 2000 to 2013 the study founded a near 100% increase in the number of motorcycle fatalities in Colombia; the occurrence rate increased from 3.6 to 5.7 per 100,000 populations. 65.4% of the fatalities
involve individuals from 15 to 34 years of age.

Conclusions: Motorcycle fatalities have become a serious public health issue in Colombia. For the 14-year of the study period, slightly more than 28,800 motorcyclist’s deaths have been attributed to different factors and social determinants.

Salud Pública de México, 2010

Examine clinical indicators to evaluate diabetes care in Mexico. Diabetics (self reported, with t... more Examine clinical indicators to evaluate diabetes care in Mexico. Diabetics (self reported, with therapy) were examined with standardized questionnaires, anthropometry, glucose, lipids and glycohemoglobin. Data were analyzed statistically. There were 2 644 patients, 677 cases without access to medical care (73% women), most lived in rural communities and spoke aboriginal dialect. Prevalence of obesity for private access group was 21.2%, for other or non access group was between 31 and 65%. The group without or basic education was most common, 76% of the cases had HDL <40 mg/dl and 36% had hypertriglyceridemia. Only 6.6% of patients had HbA1c <7%. There was no significant difference between HbA1c values observed in the group with or without access. Most patients were treated with oral agents. A significant group was without therapy. Assessments for complications was infrequent. Current model for diabetes care in Mexico is inefficacious and a paradigm change is necessary.

Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 2004

The present study describes salivary cotinine levels and their relationship to cigarettes smoked ... more The present study describes salivary cotinine levels and their relationship to cigarettes smoked per day in Mexican smokers. Using a sampling strategy based on the number of cigarettes per day, we recruited 1,222 smokers from Mexico City and the state of Morelos in Mexico during 1999. Smoking behaviors and other factors known to affect nicotine intake and cotinine level were identified in an interview using a standardized questionnaire. Salivary cotinine was measured by capillary gas chromatography with nitrogen-phosphorus detection. We used generalized additive models to describe the relationship between salivary cotinine levels and variables of interest. The mean age of the population was 39.7 years (SD~15.6 years), with a mean cotinine level of 194.7 ng/ml (SD~134.8; range~10.1-767). Participants smoked a mean of 15.5 cigarettes per day (SD~11.3). Salivary cotinine and cigarettes smoked per day were positively related, although the association was not linear, flattening above 20 cigarettes per day. After adjusting for cigarettes per day, we found that significant predictors of cotinine levels included age, body mass index, cigarette producer, and smoking behavior variables. These results may have implications for dosing with nicotine medications to aid smoking cessation in Mexican smokers and suggest that whether the cigarette is labeled light or regular has no relationship to nicotine dose from smoking cigarettes.

Salud Pública de México, 2006

Nicotine Tob Res, 2004

The present study describes salivary cotinine levels and their relationship to cigarettes smoked ... more The present study describes salivary cotinine levels and their relationship to cigarettes smoked per day in Mexican smokers. Using a sampling strategy based on the number of cigarettes per day, we recruited 1,222 smokers from Mexico City and the state of Morelos in Mexico during 1999. Smoking behaviors and other factors known to affect nicotine intake and cotinine level were identified in an interview using a standardized questionnaire. Salivary cotinine was measured by capillary gas chromatography with nitrogen-phosphorus detection. We used generalized additive models to describe the relationship between salivary cotinine levels and variables of interest. The mean age of the population was 39.7 years (SD~15.6 years), with a mean cotinine level of 194.7 ng/ml (SD~134.8; range~10.1-767). Participants smoked a mean of 15.5 cigarettes per day (SD~11.3). Salivary cotinine and cigarettes smoked per day were positively related, although the association was not linear, flattening above 20 cigarettes per day. After adjusting for cigarettes per day, we found that significant predictors of cotinine levels included age, body mass index, cigarette producer, and smoking behavior variables. These results may have implications for dosing with nicotine medications to aid smoking cessation in Mexican smokers and suggest that whether the cigarette is labeled light or regular has no relationship to nicotine dose from smoking cigarettes.

Salud Pública de México, 2016

To assess prostate cancer (PC) mortality in Mexico from 1980 to 2013, according to the state marg... more To assess prostate cancer (PC) mortality in Mexico from 1980 to 2013, according to the state marginalization level. Using age-adjusted rates in men ≥ 40 years old, we estimated trends and age-cohort-period effects of PC mortality from 1980-2013 according to state marginalization status by using a joinpoint regression model and a Poisson regression model proposed by Holford. The PC mortality risk has increased nationwide at a constant rate (2% annually) during the past 13 years. The highest annual increase was observed among states with very high (4.4%) and high (7.7%) marginalization rates. In contrast, states with very low levels of marginalization showed a significant reduction of 1.5% per year. The main changes were observed in the 1945-1950 birth year cohorts. Differences in PC mortality across regions of Mexico may reflect differences in the timing of the diagnosis and treatment of PC.

Lancet (London, England), Jan 8, 2016

Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, fina... more Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1-4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980-2015. We also estimated numbers and r...

Lancet (London, England), Oct 8, 2016

In transitioning from the Millennium Development Goal to the Sustainable Development Goal era, it... more In transitioning from the Millennium Development Goal to the Sustainable Development Goal era, it is imperative to comprehensively assess progress toward reducing maternal mortality to identify areas of success, remaining challenges, and frame policy discussions. We aimed to quantify maternal mortality throughout the world by underlying cause and age from 1990 to 2015. We estimated maternal mortality at the global, regional, and national levels from 1990 to 2015 for ages 10-54 years by systematically compiling and processing all available data sources from 186 of 195 countries and territories, 11 of which were analysed at the subnational level. We quantified eight underlying causes of maternal death and four timing categories, improving estimation methods since GBD 2013 for adult all-cause mortality, HIV-related maternal mortality, and late maternal death. Secondary analyses then allowed systematic examination of drivers of trends, including the relation between maternal mortality a...

Lancet (London, England), Jan 8, 2016

Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robus... more Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures. We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015...

Lancet (London, England), Jan 19, 2016

In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).... more In September, 2015, the UN General Assembly established the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs specify 17 universal goals, 169 targets, and 230 indicators leading up to 2030. We provide an analysis of 33 health-related SDG indicators based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015). We applied statistical methods to systematically compiled data to estimate the performance of 33 health-related SDG indicators for 188 countries from 1990 to 2015. We rescaled each indicator on a scale from 0 (worst observed value between 1990 and 2015) to 100 (best observed). Indices representing all 33 health-related SDG indicators (health-related SDG index), health-related SDG indicators included in the Millennium Development Goals (MDG index), and health-related indicators not included in the MDGs (non-MDG index) were computed as the geometric mean of the rescaled indicators by SDG target. We used spline regressions to examine the relations between ...

The Lancet HIV, 2016

Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluat... more Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification. Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections. Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030. Bill…

Revista De Salud Publica, Jun 28, 2011

Herrera -Representaciones sociales relación 497 Rev. salud pública. 12 (3): 497-509, 2010 Medidas... more Herrera -Representaciones sociales relación 497 Rev. salud pública. 12 (3): 497-509, 2010 Medidas de prevención primaria para controlar lesiones y muertes en peatones y fomentar la seguridad vial ABSTRACT At least 30 % of traffic-related injuries involve pedestrians. These events typically result in incapacitating physical injury and may even cause death. Productive-aged Revisiones/Reviews REVISTA DE SALUD PÚBLICA · Volumen 12 (3), Junio 2010

Salud Publica De Mexico, 2010

... Clicerio González-Villalpando, MD, MACP, I,II ; Ruy López-Ridaura, MD, DSc, I,II ; Julio Césa... more ... Clicerio González-Villalpando, MD, MACP, I,II ; Ruy López-Ridaura, MD, DSc, I,II ; Julio César Campuzano, MD, DSc, I ; María Elena González-Villalpando, MD. ... Andrade-Rodríguez HJ, Valadez-Castillo FJ, Hernández-Sierra JF, Gordillo-Moscoso A, Dávila-Esqueda ME, Diaz ...

Lancet (London, England), Jan 10, 2015

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a s... more The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental...

The Lancet, 2015

Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all availabl... more Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.

Lancet (London, England), Jan 7, 2015

Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and year... more Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally...

Salud Pública de …, 2010

... Clicerio González-Villalpando, MD, MACP, I,II ; Ruy López-Ridaura, MD, DSc, I,II ; Julio Césa... more ... Clicerio González-Villalpando, MD, MACP, I,II ; Ruy López-Ridaura, MD, DSc, I,II ; Julio César Campuzano, MD, DSc, I ; María Elena González-Villalpando, MD. ... Andrade-Rodríguez HJ, Valadez-Castillo FJ, Hernández-Sierra JF, Gordillo-Moscoso A, Dávila-Esqueda ME, Diaz ...

Injury Prevention, 2013

Objective To describe the process for implementing an intervention to prevent pedestrian injuries... more Objective To describe the process for implementing an intervention to prevent pedestrian injuries in Cuernavaca, Mexico, using a multidisciplinary and evidence-based approach. Methodology This study included two phases with several stages. The first was an overall assessment of pedestrian mortality in Cuernavaca that included a comparison of pedestrian mortality between Cuernavaca and the rest of Morelos State (1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007), an analysis and geocoding of pedestrian injuries (2008)(2009), and a description of techniques for selecting and analysing clustered events using road audits. The second phase focused on selecting an intervention through a review of the literature seeking the 'best evidence' adaptable to the local context and a methodological evaluation for implementation including techniques for cluster randomisation and for the evaluation of possible effects of the intervention. Results Between 2008 and 2009, in Cuernavaca there were 620 pedestrian injury events: 59.4% were men, the mean age was 36.3 years, 70% occurred during daylight hours, 55% had mild severity and there were no differences by sex ( p>0.05). We generated evidence, that when combined with the results from a systematic search of the literature, provided sufficient information for the implementation of a pedestrian injury prevention intervention. Conclusions A combination of strategies and disciplines makes it possible to comprehensively address this public health problem, allowing interventions to strengthen aspects of pedestrian safety while accounting for characteristics of the local context; the promotion of local measures, of low cost and high impact, with modifications to the road infrastructure, are more effective in addressing pedestrian vulnerabilities.

Background: Road traffic injuries and fatalities have increased in Colombia despite that 2011-202... more Background: Road traffic injuries and fatalities have increased in Colombia despite that 2011-2020 had been declared as the Decade of Action for Road Safety in the world. Then, this paper aims to describe the trends of motorcycle mortality patterns in Colombia from 2000-2013.

Methods: A longitudinal study is carried out using mortality records from the Colombian National Department of Statistics, and following the International Classification of Diseases -ICD-10 V200 to V299.

Results: From 2000 to 2013 the study founded a near 100% increase in the number of motorcycle fatalities in Colombia; the occurrence rate increased from 3.6 to 5.7 per 100,000 populations. 65.4% of the fatalities
involve individuals from 15 to 34 years of age.

Conclusions: Motorcycle fatalities have become a serious public health issue in Colombia. For the 14-year of the study period, slightly more than 28,800 motorcyclist’s deaths have been attributed to different factors and social determinants.

Salud Pública de México, 2010

Examine clinical indicators to evaluate diabetes care in Mexico. Diabetics (self reported, with t... more Examine clinical indicators to evaluate diabetes care in Mexico. Diabetics (self reported, with therapy) were examined with standardized questionnaires, anthropometry, glucose, lipids and glycohemoglobin. Data were analyzed statistically. There were 2 644 patients, 677 cases without access to medical care (73% women), most lived in rural communities and spoke aboriginal dialect. Prevalence of obesity for private access group was 21.2%, for other or non access group was between 31 and 65%. The group without or basic education was most common, 76% of the cases had HDL <40 mg/dl and 36% had hypertriglyceridemia. Only 6.6% of patients had HbA1c <7%. There was no significant difference between HbA1c values observed in the group with or without access. Most patients were treated with oral agents. A significant group was without therapy. Assessments for complications was infrequent. Current model for diabetes care in Mexico is inefficacious and a paradigm change is necessary.

Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 2004

The present study describes salivary cotinine levels and their relationship to cigarettes smoked ... more The present study describes salivary cotinine levels and their relationship to cigarettes smoked per day in Mexican smokers. Using a sampling strategy based on the number of cigarettes per day, we recruited 1,222 smokers from Mexico City and the state of Morelos in Mexico during 1999. Smoking behaviors and other factors known to affect nicotine intake and cotinine level were identified in an interview using a standardized questionnaire. Salivary cotinine was measured by capillary gas chromatography with nitrogen-phosphorus detection. We used generalized additive models to describe the relationship between salivary cotinine levels and variables of interest. The mean age of the population was 39.7 years (SD~15.6 years), with a mean cotinine level of 194.7 ng/ml (SD~134.8; range~10.1-767). Participants smoked a mean of 15.5 cigarettes per day (SD~11.3). Salivary cotinine and cigarettes smoked per day were positively related, although the association was not linear, flattening above 20 cigarettes per day. After adjusting for cigarettes per day, we found that significant predictors of cotinine levels included age, body mass index, cigarette producer, and smoking behavior variables. These results may have implications for dosing with nicotine medications to aid smoking cessation in Mexican smokers and suggest that whether the cigarette is labeled light or regular has no relationship to nicotine dose from smoking cigarettes.

Salud Pública de México, 2006