Carl Boe - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Carl Boe
Scientific Data, 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed substantial coverage and quality gaps in existing internationa... more The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed substantial coverage and quality gaps in existing international and national statistical monitoring systems. It is striking that obtaining timely, accurate, and comparable across countries data in order to adequately respond to unexpected epidemiological threats is very challenging. The most robust and reliable approach to quantify the mortality burden due to short-term risk factors is based on estimating weekly excess deaths. This approach is more reliable than monitoring deaths with COVID-19 diagnosis or calculating incidence or fatality rates affected by numerous problems such as testing coverage and comparability of diagnostic approaches. In response to the emerging data challenges, a new data resource on weekly mortality has been established. The Short-term Mortality Fluctuations (STMF, available at www.mortality.org) data series is the first international database providing open-access harmonized, uniform, and fully documented data on weekly ...
Nature, 2000
Human lifespan has increased enormously this century. But we remain uncertain about the forces th... more Human lifespan has increased enormously this century. But we remain uncertain about the forces that reduce mortality, and about the cost implications of ageing populations and their associated social burden. The poor understanding of the factors driving mortality decline, and the difficulty of forecasting mortality are due in part to the pronounced irregularity of annual to decadal mortality change. Here we examine mortality over five decades in the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US). In every country over this period, mortality at each age has declined exponentially at a roughly constant rate. This trend places a constraint on any theory of society-driven mortality decline, and provides a basis for stochastic mortality forecasting. We find that median forecasts of life expectancy are substantially larger than in existing official forecasts. In terms of the costs of ageing, we forecast values of the dependency ratio (that is, the ratio of people over 65 to working people) in 2050 that are between 6% (UK) and 40% (Japan) higher than official forecasts.
International journal of epidemiology, Jan 23, 2015
Demographic Research, 2005
Using data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), the paper analyzes the increase in the life e... more Using data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), the paper analyzes the increase in the life expectancy of the Spanish population during three decades, 1970-2001, in order to ascertain which age and sex groups have made the most progress in terms of increasing life expectancy. Within the theoretical context of the Health Transition, the authors provide a brief description of the Spanish mortality during the XXth century across several indexes. The study uses a decomposition technique to separate changes in Spanish life expectancy at birth (e 0) into age, sex, and time components. The most important components of change are found in the elderly, in young people, and in the evolution of sex differences in human mortality.
Demography, 2011
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Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes, 1993
Many epidemiological studies have identified the number of sex partners as a risk factor for the ... more Many epidemiological studies have identified the number of sex partners as a risk factor for the acquisition of HIV, but few studies have identified the number of sex acts as a risk factor. The seeming lack of importance of the number of sex acts as a risk factor has yet to be explained. In this report we conduct an exploratory data analysis to evaluate the relationship between the number of sex acts and the number of sex partners for heterosexuals. Our results indicate that it may be most appropriate to view sexual activity within a sex budget and resource allocation framework. We use the results (a) to suggest an explanation for why the results from some of the risk factor analysis studies have identified a per partnership but not a per act risk, and (b) to assess the implications of the relationship for the estimation of heterosexual transmission probabilities for HIV.
Life tables describe the extent to which a generation of people (the life table cohort) dies off ... more Life tables describe the extent to which a generation of people (the life table cohort) dies off with age. Life tables are the most ancient and important tool in demography. They are widely used for descriptive and analytical purposes in demography, public health, epidemiology, population geography, biology and many other branches of
and Bryan Lincoln for their research contributions to projects on which this paper draws. We have... more and Bryan Lincoln for their research contributions to projects on which this paper draws. We have benefited from comments on an earlier draft by Dan McFadden, Jim Smith, and Peter Diamond, as well as by other conference participants. Lee’s research for this paper was funded by a grant from NIA, AG11761. Tuljapurkar’s
Acknowledgements This work was supported by a grant from the Social Security Administration throu... more Acknowledgements This work was supported by a grant from the Social Security Administration through the
Center For the Economics and Demography of Aging, May 19, 2004
# El apartado 3.2 referido a los cambios más recientes de la mortalidad española se han realizado... more # El apartado 3.2 referido a los cambios más recientes de la mortalidad española se han realizado en colaboración con
Population (english edition), 2008
In the early 1960s, the gap between Spain and Portugal in terms of life expectancy at birth was v... more In the early 1960s, the gap between Spain and Portugal in terms of life expectancy at birth was very large (6.5 years in favour of Spanish women and 7.2 years in favour of Spanish men). Excess mortality in Portugal was due mainly to high death rates among babies, children and adolescents. Today, the gap is much narrower, although Portuguese life expectancy (81.3 years for females and 74.9 years for males in 2005) is still around two years lower than in Spain, which ranks among European leaders. In this article, Vladimir Canudas-romo and his colleagues analyse this change by examining the impact of mortality by age and by major cause of death on the life expectancy differential between the two countries over the last fifty years. They pinpoint the areas upon which health policies should focus in order to close the gap between Portugal and its neighbour.
Population, 2008
Aujourd’hui, les esperances de vie au Portugal (81,3 ans pour les femmes et 74,9 ans pour les hom... more Aujourd’hui, les esperances de vie au Portugal (81,3 ans pour les femmes et 74,9 ans pour les hommes en 2005) et en Espagne (respectivement 83,5 ans et 76,9 ans) presentent la particularite de figurer pour les hommes portugais parmi les plus basses d’Europe occidentale et pour les femmes espagnoles parmi les plus elevees. Cet article decrit les tendances convergentes de la mortalite dans la peninsule Iberique au cours de la seconde moitie du XXe siecle. L’esperance de vie au Portugal semble suivre la meme trajectoire que celle de l’Espagne avec plusieurs annees de retard (dix ans pour les femmes, quinze ans pour les hommes) grâce aux progres enregistres a tous les âges. Les analyses de la mortalite par âge et par cause montrent que c’est la mortalite entre 20 et 79 ans chez les hommes et au-dessus de 60 ans chez les femmes qui est responsable de la majeure partie de l’ecart d’esperance de vie subsistant entre les deux pays. Les causes de deces qui contribuent le plus a ces differences sont les maladies de l’appareil circulatoire et, pour les hommes, les traumatismes et morts violentes.
International Journal of Forecasting, 1999
This paper addresses issues that arise in evaluating, making, and using stochastic forecasts of f... more This paper addresses issues that arise in evaluating, making, and using stochastic forecasts of future fertility in the United States. We begin with Lee's ARMA model which leads to prediction intervals that are more realistic and informative than point-wise forecasts or traditional scenario methods. The roles of historical information and expert judgment are analyzed in terms of their effects upon prediction uncertainty. Validation experiments suggest that the model performs well in characterizing the uncertainty of the US fertility experience. We argue that the long-run average of fertility, a key assumption of the model, operates on a time scale not probed by time-series methods and we use Bayesian priors to quantify the additional prediction uncertainty that comes from making the long-run fertility assumption.
North American …, 1998
Prospects of longer life are viewed as a positive change for individuals and as a substantial soc... more Prospects of longer life are viewed as a positive change for individuals and as a substantial social achievement but have led to concern over their implications for public spending on old-age support. This paper makes a critical assessment of knowledge about ...
Scientific Data, 2021
The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed substantial coverage and quality gaps in existing internationa... more The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed substantial coverage and quality gaps in existing international and national statistical monitoring systems. It is striking that obtaining timely, accurate, and comparable across countries data in order to adequately respond to unexpected epidemiological threats is very challenging. The most robust and reliable approach to quantify the mortality burden due to short-term risk factors is based on estimating weekly excess deaths. This approach is more reliable than monitoring deaths with COVID-19 diagnosis or calculating incidence or fatality rates affected by numerous problems such as testing coverage and comparability of diagnostic approaches. In response to the emerging data challenges, a new data resource on weekly mortality has been established. The Short-term Mortality Fluctuations (STMF, available at www.mortality.org) data series is the first international database providing open-access harmonized, uniform, and fully documented data on weekly ...
Nature, 2000
Human lifespan has increased enormously this century. But we remain uncertain about the forces th... more Human lifespan has increased enormously this century. But we remain uncertain about the forces that reduce mortality, and about the cost implications of ageing populations and their associated social burden. The poor understanding of the factors driving mortality decline, and the difficulty of forecasting mortality are due in part to the pronounced irregularity of annual to decadal mortality change. Here we examine mortality over five decades in the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, US). In every country over this period, mortality at each age has declined exponentially at a roughly constant rate. This trend places a constraint on any theory of society-driven mortality decline, and provides a basis for stochastic mortality forecasting. We find that median forecasts of life expectancy are substantially larger than in existing official forecasts. In terms of the costs of ageing, we forecast values of the dependency ratio (that is, the ratio of people over 65 to working people) in 2050 that are between 6% (UK) and 40% (Japan) higher than official forecasts.
International journal of epidemiology, Jan 23, 2015
Demographic Research, 2005
Using data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), the paper analyzes the increase in the life e... more Using data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), the paper analyzes the increase in the life expectancy of the Spanish population during three decades, 1970-2001, in order to ascertain which age and sex groups have made the most progress in terms of increasing life expectancy. Within the theoretical context of the Health Transition, the authors provide a brief description of the Spanish mortality during the XXth century across several indexes. The study uses a decomposition technique to separate changes in Spanish life expectancy at birth (e 0) into age, sex, and time components. The most important components of change are found in the elderly, in young people, and in the evolution of sex differences in human mortality.
Demography, 2011
Logo Springer. Search Menu. Search Options: ...
Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes, 1993
Many epidemiological studies have identified the number of sex partners as a risk factor for the ... more Many epidemiological studies have identified the number of sex partners as a risk factor for the acquisition of HIV, but few studies have identified the number of sex acts as a risk factor. The seeming lack of importance of the number of sex acts as a risk factor has yet to be explained. In this report we conduct an exploratory data analysis to evaluate the relationship between the number of sex acts and the number of sex partners for heterosexuals. Our results indicate that it may be most appropriate to view sexual activity within a sex budget and resource allocation framework. We use the results (a) to suggest an explanation for why the results from some of the risk factor analysis studies have identified a per partnership but not a per act risk, and (b) to assess the implications of the relationship for the estimation of heterosexual transmission probabilities for HIV.
Life tables describe the extent to which a generation of people (the life table cohort) dies off ... more Life tables describe the extent to which a generation of people (the life table cohort) dies off with age. Life tables are the most ancient and important tool in demography. They are widely used for descriptive and analytical purposes in demography, public health, epidemiology, population geography, biology and many other branches of
and Bryan Lincoln for their research contributions to projects on which this paper draws. We have... more and Bryan Lincoln for their research contributions to projects on which this paper draws. We have benefited from comments on an earlier draft by Dan McFadden, Jim Smith, and Peter Diamond, as well as by other conference participants. Lee’s research for this paper was funded by a grant from NIA, AG11761. Tuljapurkar’s
Acknowledgements This work was supported by a grant from the Social Security Administration throu... more Acknowledgements This work was supported by a grant from the Social Security Administration through the
Center For the Economics and Demography of Aging, May 19, 2004
# El apartado 3.2 referido a los cambios más recientes de la mortalidad española se han realizado... more # El apartado 3.2 referido a los cambios más recientes de la mortalidad española se han realizado en colaboración con
Population (english edition), 2008
In the early 1960s, the gap between Spain and Portugal in terms of life expectancy at birth was v... more In the early 1960s, the gap between Spain and Portugal in terms of life expectancy at birth was very large (6.5 years in favour of Spanish women and 7.2 years in favour of Spanish men). Excess mortality in Portugal was due mainly to high death rates among babies, children and adolescents. Today, the gap is much narrower, although Portuguese life expectancy (81.3 years for females and 74.9 years for males in 2005) is still around two years lower than in Spain, which ranks among European leaders. In this article, Vladimir Canudas-romo and his colleagues analyse this change by examining the impact of mortality by age and by major cause of death on the life expectancy differential between the two countries over the last fifty years. They pinpoint the areas upon which health policies should focus in order to close the gap between Portugal and its neighbour.
Population, 2008
Aujourd’hui, les esperances de vie au Portugal (81,3 ans pour les femmes et 74,9 ans pour les hom... more Aujourd’hui, les esperances de vie au Portugal (81,3 ans pour les femmes et 74,9 ans pour les hommes en 2005) et en Espagne (respectivement 83,5 ans et 76,9 ans) presentent la particularite de figurer pour les hommes portugais parmi les plus basses d’Europe occidentale et pour les femmes espagnoles parmi les plus elevees. Cet article decrit les tendances convergentes de la mortalite dans la peninsule Iberique au cours de la seconde moitie du XXe siecle. L’esperance de vie au Portugal semble suivre la meme trajectoire que celle de l’Espagne avec plusieurs annees de retard (dix ans pour les femmes, quinze ans pour les hommes) grâce aux progres enregistres a tous les âges. Les analyses de la mortalite par âge et par cause montrent que c’est la mortalite entre 20 et 79 ans chez les hommes et au-dessus de 60 ans chez les femmes qui est responsable de la majeure partie de l’ecart d’esperance de vie subsistant entre les deux pays. Les causes de deces qui contribuent le plus a ces differences sont les maladies de l’appareil circulatoire et, pour les hommes, les traumatismes et morts violentes.
International Journal of Forecasting, 1999
This paper addresses issues that arise in evaluating, making, and using stochastic forecasts of f... more This paper addresses issues that arise in evaluating, making, and using stochastic forecasts of future fertility in the United States. We begin with Lee's ARMA model which leads to prediction intervals that are more realistic and informative than point-wise forecasts or traditional scenario methods. The roles of historical information and expert judgment are analyzed in terms of their effects upon prediction uncertainty. Validation experiments suggest that the model performs well in characterizing the uncertainty of the US fertility experience. We argue that the long-run average of fertility, a key assumption of the model, operates on a time scale not probed by time-series methods and we use Bayesian priors to quantify the additional prediction uncertainty that comes from making the long-run fertility assumption.
North American …, 1998
Prospects of longer life are viewed as a positive change for individuals and as a substantial soc... more Prospects of longer life are viewed as a positive change for individuals and as a substantial social achievement but have led to concern over their implications for public spending on old-age support. This paper makes a critical assessment of knowledge about ...