Charles Nemfakos - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Charles Nemfakos

This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND Corporatio... more This PDF document was made available from www.rand.org as a public service of the RAND Corporation. Jump down to document6

: This report presents the results of two RAND studies: One is a comparative assessment of the ca... more : This report presents the results of two RAND studies: One is a comparative assessment of the capabilities and development approaches used for the Department of Defense (DoD) Joint Tactical Radio System (JTRS) wideband networking waveform (WNW) (a key component of a planned tactical military communications system) and the long-term evolution (LTE) waveform (a key component of advanced commercial mobile communications networks). The second study analyzes acquisition programs with multiple Nunn-McCurdy breaches, that is, military acquisition programs that have exceeded certain cost thresholds. The first study compares differences in system designs, technical requirements, intellectual property protection schemes, and cost in the development of WNW, one of the key software products produced by the JTRS network enterprise domain1 (NED) program with similar elements of the commercial cell phone fourth-generation (4G) LTE waveform. The study first examined how the program managed system ...

: Continuing concern about large cost overruns in a broad range of major defense programs led Con... more : Continuing concern about large cost overruns in a broad range of major defense programs led Congress to pass new laws extending the ambit of the existing Nunn- McCurdy Act, stipulating that the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) review and report on the factors affecting program costs. In accordance with the revised Nunn- McCurdy Act, the office of Performance Assessments and Root Cause Analysis (PARCA) must provide its root cause explanation as part of a 60-day program review triggered when the applicable military department secretary reports a breach. In March 2010, in view of staffing limitations, the newly created PARCA within the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) elected to rely on federally funded research and development center support in discharging its new responsibilities. Since then, PARCA engaged the RAND Corporation to conduct multiple studies on the root causes of Nunn-McCurdy breaches or other large cost increases in nine major defense acquisition programs: the...

: The Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization Act passed in 1986 was one of the mo... more : The Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization Act passed in 1986 was one of the most sweeping pieces of legislation to affect the Department of Defense and the military services in decades. Its passage resulted from dissatisfaction on the part of Congress and other influential policy makers with what they perceived as the U.S. military's stubborn refusal to deal with long-festering problems. These problems included an inability on the part of the military services to mount effective joint operations and an inefficient, unwieldy, and at times corrupt system for acquiring weapon systems. But Goldwater-Nichols was only one manifestation of widespread discontent with the Department of Defense's operational and acquisition capabilities. Between 1986 and 1990, a remarkable number of events changed how the department was organized, conducted military operations, and did business. The climate surrounding the enactment of Goldwater-Nichols was indeed a "perfect st...

: In addition to doing root cause analyses on major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs) that inc... more : In addition to doing root cause analyses on major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs) that incurred Nunn-McCurdy breaches, the Director of the Office of Performance Assessments and Root Cause Analyses (PARCA) asked RAND to explore some additional issues to determine whether they might affect the management of such programs. This report presents research conducted on three relevant topics: the tenure of program managers, the need for Department of Defense (DoD) level oversight on Acquisition Category (ACAT) II programs, and the potential use of framing assumptions as a way to manage program risk. The issues raised by these topics are discussed briefly below.

This chapter on achieving transportation security through logistics transformation is from a text... more This chapter on achieving transportation security through logistics transformation is from a textbook that presents an interdisciplinary approach to the issue of global preparedness from a transportation perspective. The authors focus on the complex issues involving the relationship between transportation security and a nation's physical and economic security. Topics include the interplay between enhanced productivity and economic security, the impact of logistics transformation on security, the use of dual outcomes scenarios, logistics transformation in the defense arena, and the correlation between logistics transformation, transportation security, and national security. The authors describe how the RFID (radio frequency identification) technology that was initially introduced as bar coding in retail activities has subsequently evolved into the more recent application to container identification and tracking. They use their experiences in providing security to a European port ...

: Soon after the events of September 11, 2001, the intelligence community began a decade-long eff... more : Soon after the events of September 11, 2001, the intelligence community began a decade-long effort to reconstitute a workforce that was downsized considerably following the end of the Cold War, resulting in a loss not only of personnel but also of critical capability. Early efforts to rebuild this workforce focused primarily on getting more people on board to respond to growing near-term demands related to the terrorist threat. Before long, however, the community faced criticism from congressional oversight committees about the rapid and what to some seemed chaotic growth of the intelligence workforce. The need to address these concerns motivated efforts to develop and apply a more strategic approach to workforce planning in the intelligence community. The need to make far-reaching changes in a workforce with a wide diversity of elements proved challenging, but the chief human capital officer in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence made considerable headway in ident...

: In today's defense environment, pressure is growing on policy makers to make the defense ac... more : In today's defense environment, pressure is growing on policy makers to make the defense acquisition system more nimble and effective. To help, prior to the 2008 U.S. presidential election, the RAND Corporation was asked to prepare a series of white papers as part of the Office of the Secretary of Defense's effort to provide the next administration with guidance on defense acquisition challenges in several areas likely to be of critical importance to the new defense acquisition leadership: competition, risk management, novel systems, prototyping, organizational and management issues, and the acquisition workforce. These efforts led to six occasional papers that offer thought-provoking suggestions based on decades of RAND and other research, new quantitative assessments, a RAND-developed cost-analysis methodology, and the expertise of core RAND research staff. This monograph, a compilation of those six papers, is designed to inform new initiatives for markedly improving the...

Congressional concern with cost overruns, or breaches, in several major defense acquisition progr... more Congressional concern with cost overruns, or breaches, in several major defense acquisition programs led the authors, in a partnership with the Performance Assessments and Root Cause Analysis Office in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics, to investigate root causes of overruns. Having conducted six analyses, the authors were able to develop a methodology for such analyses.

Abstract : Soon after the events of September 11, 2001, the intelligence community began a decade... more Abstract : Soon after the events of September 11, 2001, the intelligence community began a decade-long effort to reconstitute a workforce that was downsized considerably following the end of the Cold War, resulting in a loss not only of personnel but also of critical capability. Early efforts to rebuild this workforce focused primarily on getting more people on board to respond to growing near-term demands related to the terrorist threat. Before long, however, the community faced criticism from congressional oversight committees about the rapid and what to some seemed chaotic growth of the intelligence workforce. The need to address these concerns motivated efforts to develop and apply a more strategic approach to workforce planning in the intelligence community. The need to make far-reaching changes in a workforce with a wide diversity of elements proved challenging, but the chief human capital officer in the Office of the Director of National Intelligence made considerable headway in identifying community-wide workforce issues and tools to facilitate more-effective workforce planning in the future. As the Obama administration enters its second term and the potential for budget cuts looms, it is an opportune time to examine the progress made within the intelligence community in workforce planning. This report chronicles intelligence community efforts over more than half a decade to improve community-wide workforce planning and management. It should be of interest to anyone concerned with workforce planning in the U.S. intelligence community. Beyond the intelligence community, the need to manage human resources in today's environment of constrained resources suggests that the lessons learned and workforce-planning tools described in this report should have applicability across the federal government to anyone who manages a large human capital portfolio. The appendix contains a 21-page analysis of Department of Defense military intelligence personnel.

: This paper suggests an approach for how the Department of Defense (DoD) might execute deep redu... more : This paper suggests an approach for how the Department of Defense (DoD) might execute deep reductions in the defense budget, deep enough that stated defense strategy could not be fully resourced. The cuts examined go beyond the $487 billion announced in January 2012 by Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta. The authors do not argue for or against further reductions. They posit that the ongoing pressure to reduce the federal budget deficit may mandate further reductions in the DoD budget. In this context, they suggest starting from a strategic basis in determining the reductions, prioritizing challenges, and identifying where to accept more risk in the process. The paper demonstrates this method with three illustrative strategic directions that might guide the department in choosing which forces and programs to reduce or to protect while making explicit the risks involved. It builds on the strategic guidance of January 2012, Sustaining U.S. Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Centur...

: During the most recent rounds of Base Closure and Realignment Commission activities in 2005, a ... more : During the most recent rounds of Base Closure and Realignment Commission activities in 2005, a significant number of training bases were closed. In light of the introduction of new technologies and the great expansion of unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) in the force, Department of Defense planners and some in Congress have become concerned that the existing training infrastructure bases and their training support facilities may not be adequate to train UAS air and ground components and the ground forces that use such equipment to capitalize fully on their capabilities. Accordingly, the Deputy Director, Readiness and Training Policy and Programs in the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness (OUSD [P&R]) asked the RAND Corporation to assess the adequacy of UAS training to support current and future requirements. In addition, the House Armed Services Committee report accompanying the Fiscal Year 2013 National Defense Appropriations Act raised a number of...

: As a result of continuing concern with large cost overruns in a broad range of major defense pr... more : As a result of continuing concern with large cost overruns in a broad range of major defense programs, Congress enacted new statutory provisions extending the ambit of the existing Nunn-McCurdy Act. In accordance with the revised Nunn-McCurdy law, the Performance Assessments and Root Cause Analysis (PARCA) office must provide its root cause explanation as part of a 60-day program review triggered when the breach is reported by the applicable military department secretary. This report does two things. First, it analyzes the root cause of cost overruns in two programs: the Army Excalibur artillery round and the Navy Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP). The Excalibur project incurred a Nunn-McCurdy breach. The ERP did not, but the cost growth was so great that the Department of Defense (DoD) requested a root cause analysis. Second, it presents what can be described as an exercise to help identify the most critical features of a program. Critical program components are those that carry...

: Continuing concern over defense acquisition has led Congress to direct the establishment of an ... more : Continuing concern over defense acquisition has led Congress to direct the establishment of an office in the Department of Defense to oversee the conduct of root cause analyses on programs that have incurred Nunn-McCurdy breaches. This paper focuses on one such program. RAND analysis of several programs with Nunn-McCurdy breaches reveals they share several common causes. However, each program is different, and those differences suggest that policymakers should be wary of applying policies that assume all program cost increases stem from common causes.

The authors explore defense contractor motivations and identify mechanisms that might more closel... more The authors explore defense contractor motivations and identify mechanisms that might more closely align those incentives with Department of Defense goals. They also analyze major defense acquisition programs to determine if it is possible to identify programs that might incur a future Nunn-McCurdy breach by reviewing a number of acquisition programs that have incurred breaches and analyzing them for common characteristics.

: Planning and program oversight issues which are within DoD s control are significant root cause... more : Planning and program oversight issues which are within DoD s control are significant root causes of cost growth. 5 of 7 RAND analyses identify planning issues. All 7 RAND analyses identify program oversight issues. Only one program (WGS) showed economic issues as a significant root cause of cost growth. Related root causes can be collectively significant. 7 planning issues in DDG case contributed to cost growth though no single planning issue was a significant root cause.

: In 1986, the military establishment underwent the most sweeping package of defense reforms to b... more : In 1986, the military establishment underwent the most sweeping package of defense reforms to be enacted in almost 40 years, starting with the Goldwater-Nichols Department of Defense Reorganization Act. Related reforms followed shortly thereafter, including those contained in the National Defense Authorization Act of 1987, reflecting many of the recommendations of the Packard Commission. In the two decades following enactment of this legislation, the military establishment has taken numerous steps to implement them. However, some within the military services have grown increasingly concerned about the effect of some of these reforms, perceiving a growing divide between a military-run requirements process and a civilian-run acquisition process that they regard inimical to the efficient and effective support of military forces. This study describes the analysis that was done, conclusions that were drawn, and recommendations that were made to the Department of the Navy (DoN) regardin...

: Despite years of change and reform, DoD continues to develop and acquire weapon systems that it... more : Despite years of change and reform, DoD continues to develop and acquire weapon systems that it cannot afford and cannot deliver on schedule. The U.S. Government Accountability Office reported, for example, that research and development costs in 2008 for selected major programs were 42 percent higher than originally estimated and that the average delay in delivering initial capabilities had increased to 22 months (March 2009, p. 1). Also, William Lynn, the new Deputy Secretary of Defense, stated that it will be very difficult to sustain a force large enough to meet demands if current acquisition trends continue. This suggests that the new administration will have to find ways to halt traditional cost growth associated with fielding new capabilities -- or consider program terminations (Lynn, 2009, p. 16). Many of the problems that contribute to poor cost and schedule outcomes are systemic to the way that the acquisition process is organized and managed in DoD. It is our purpose in ...