Seung-Whan Choi - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Seung-Whan Choi

This study asserts that countries with large internally displaced populations (IDPs) are more lik... more This study asserts that countries with large internally displaced populations (IDPs) are more likely to experience a higher rate of suicide terrorism. After demonstrating this, the study tests four intervening factors hypothesized to drive the relationship between IDPs and suicide attacks: IDPs are expected (1) to increase the pool of potential suicide recruits, thereby lowering the labor costs for suicide terrorist groups; (2) to increase local ethnic conflicts that foster a favorable environment for suicide terrorism; (3) to worsen the human rights conditions in countries, prompting aggrieved people to support suicide terrorist tactics; and (4) to raise the counterterrorism and policing costs of the state, enabling terrorists to plan and execute suicide attacks. Results from negative binomial regression and Tobit models show evidence for the IDPssuicide terrorism connection. When recursive models are employed to evaluate the effects of four intervening variables, the results most ...

Given that immigration policy and terrorism are two hotly debated issues, this study empirically ... more Given that immigration policy and terrorism are two hotly debated issues, this study empirically examines the effects of twelve different restrictive policies that Western democratic states use to screen immigrants for terrorism prevention. This study finds mixed effects of restrictive policy alternatives. On the one hand, terrorism is likely to decrease when states impose immigration restrictions based on skill or wealth, or when states offer immigrants limited legal rights that permit only restricted residence and designated employers. On the other hand, terrorism is expected to increase when states allow no special visas or procedures to recruit immigrants, or when states give workers citizenship only when they are born to a native parent. These mixed findings suggest that to deter future terrorist incidents, states should be selective in initiating and implementing new immigration reforms.

Nations and Nationalism, 2021

PLoS ONE, 2022

This replication underlines the importance of outlier diagnostics since many researchers have lon... more This replication underlines the importance of outlier diagnostics since many researchers have long neglected influential observations in OLS regression analysis. In his article, entitled “Primary Resources, Secondary Labor,” Shin finds that advanced democracies with increased natural resource wealth, particularly from oil and natural gas production, are more likely to restrict low-skill immigration policy. By performing outlier diagnostics, this replication shows that Shin’s findings are a statistical artifact. When one outlying country, Norway, is removed from the sample data, I observe almost no significant and negative relationship between oil wealth and immigration policy. When two outlying countries are excluded, the effect of oil wealth completely disappears. Robust regression analysis, a widely used remedial method for outlier problems, confirms the results of my outlier diagnostics.

Review of International Political Economy

Asian Perspective

Although South Korea has elected every president under the same democratic constitution since 198... more Although South Korea has elected every president under the same democratic constitution since 1987, it has an ongoing puzzle: why do some presidents personalize their regimes (or at least made an effort to do so) while others remain democratic? To explain this puzzle, this study introduces a novel concept, a "lemon presidency." This is where a democratically elected president engenders a personalized regime that is backed by prejudiced judicial authorities such as courts and prosecutors' offices. South Korea experienced two lemon presidencies under Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye. South Koreans viewed Lee and Park as true representatives of democracy during the 2007 and 2012 presidential elections; however, they turned out to possess an unrealistic sense of superiority and became semi-democratic rulers. They personalized political powers by exploiting their appointment and removal powers. Based on case studies and survey results, this study provides evidence for Lee's and Park's lemon presidencies. The overall analysis of this study envisions another lemon presidency in South Korea's future if voters choose to vote for a grandiose leader.

The online version of this article can be found at:

Civil-Military Dynamics, Democracy, and International Conflict, 2005

This chapter reviews extant literature on the democratic peace. After briefly summarizing the cor... more This chapter reviews extant literature on the democratic peace. After briefly summarizing the core propositions of the democratic peace, it presents a series of criticisms under four headings: (a) paradigmatic debates, (b) neglected issues related to covert interventions and democratization, (c) methodological predicaments, and (d) problematic assertions from rational choice theory. In response to its critics, the recent evolution and prospects of the democratic peace are covered as well. This chapter culminates in the suggestion that current scholarship on peace and conflict can benefit from a foreign policy decision-making process model that incorporates the four key elements noted at the outset of the book: (a) civil-military relations, (b) military manpower system, (c) diplomatic channels, and (d) media openness.

International Trade, Politics and Development, 2021

PurposeThis study proposes a Bayesian approach to analyze structural breaks and examines whether ... more PurposeThis study proposes a Bayesian approach to analyze structural breaks and examines whether structural changes have occurred, at the onset of civil war, with respect to economic development and population during the period from 1945 to 1999.Design/methodology/approachIn the Bayesian logit regression changepoint model, parameters of covariates are allowed to shift individually, regime transitions can move back and forth, and the model is applicable to cross-sectional, time-series data.FindingsContrary to popular belief that the causal process of civil war changed with the end of the Cold War, the empirical analysis shows that the regression relationships between civil war and economic development, as well as between civil war and population, remain quite stable during the study period.Originality/valueThis is the first to develop a Bayesian logit regression changepoint model and to apply it to studies of economic development and civil war.

Purpose – This study proposes a Bayesian approach to analyze structural breaks and examines wheth... more Purpose – This study proposes a Bayesian approach to analyze structural breaks and examines whether structural changes have occurred, at the onset of civil war, with respect to economic development and population during the period from 1945 to 1999. Design/methodology/approach – In the Bayesian logit regression changepoint model, parameters of covariates are allowed to shift individually, regime transitions can move back and forth, and the model is applicable to cross-sectional, time-series data. Findings – Contrary to popular belief that the causal process of civil war changed with the end of the Cold War, the empirical analysis shows that the regression relationships between civil war and economic development, as well as between civil war and population, remain quite stable during the study period. Originality/value –This is the first to develop a Bayesian logit regression changepoint model and to apply it to studies of economic development and civil war.

Among the four factors introduced in this book, media openness has emerged as preeminent at the d... more Among the four factors introduced in this book, media openness has emerged as preeminent at the dyadic level in its association with avoiding MIDs. The effects of media openness supersede those from the other components of the foreign policy decision-making model as well as Oneal and Russett’s (1999c) three neo-Kantian peace variables (i.e., democraticness, economic interdependence, and joint membership in international organizations). These persistent and important findings encourage more in-depth assessment of media as a component of democracy in direct comparison with Polity-based democracy. In particular, the institutional elements from the quasistandard Polity Index might be re-examined when compared with media openness with regard to explanation of MIDs and related phenomena. Thus, the present chapter presents (a) more refined theoretical linkages between media and conflict and (b) additional empirical tests for the longer period from 1950 to 1992, which corresponds approximat...

Civil-Military Dynamics, Democracy, and International Conflict, 2005

Whether military fatalities can restrain belligerent foreign policies is an interesting issue for... more Whether military fatalities can restrain belligerent foreign policies is an interesting issue for both theory and practice of international relations.1 Vigilant about potential loss of precious life, the public may be expected to raise its voice against military actions (Gartner and Segura 1998). In this regard, Luttwak (1996: 36) argues that “the prospect of high casualties, which can rapidly undermine domestic support for any military operation, is the key political constraint when decisions must be made on which forces to deploy in a crisis, and at what levels.” Sophisticated data analysis suggests that to be more than just speculation (Gartzke 2001). Oneal et al. (2003) use distributed-lag models to determine that democracy, economic interdependence, and joint membership in international organizations decrease the likelihood of fatal MIDs.

Japanese Journal of Political Science, 2021

The world population of Muslims has increased exponentially in the past decade. Why is the world&... more The world population of Muslims has increased exponentially in the past decade. Why is the world's Muslim population growing so quickly? This study offers a new theoretical perspective: the growth of the worldwide Muslim population is a result of a series of terrorist campaigns that inspire non-Muslims to convert to Islam. For empirical testing, this study employs a cross-national, time-series analysis of 152 countries from 1970 to 2007. Although there is lack of data on conversions that follow terrorist campaigns for a direct test of the theory, this study finds a correlation between terrorist attacks and growth of the Muslim population. This finding is robust and consistent even after controlling for salient demographic reasons for growth, such as the level of fertility and immigration.

The Review of International Organizations, 2021

von Borzyskowski and Vabulas' Review of International Organizations 14(2):335-366 (2019) pioneeri... more von Borzyskowski and Vabulas' Review of International Organizations 14(2):335-366 (2019) pioneering research explores why states withdraw from intergovernmental organizations (IGOs). Contrary to popular belief, the research finds that IGO withdrawal has little to do with increased nationalism and instead is largely driven by geopolitical reasons and democracy levels both within the state and organization. In this study, I test von Borzyskowski and Vabulas' empirical analysis by the introduction of an alternative measure of leader nationalism that more closely matches their theoretical argument. With this alternative nationalism measure, I find strong evidence consistent with popular belief: nationalism is a key driving force for IGO withdrawals across space and time.

International Trade, Politics and Development, 2019

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine a curvilinear effect of legislative constraints o... more Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine a curvilinear effect of legislative constraints on foreign debt. Design/methodology/approach A cross-sectional, time-series data analysis of 68 developing countries during the period from 1981 to 1999 was performed. Findings Foreign borrowing is most likely to increase at both low and high levels of legislative constraints, while it is most likely to decrease at moderate levels. Originality/value The paper is a first-cut empirical analysis of a curvilinear relationship between legislative constraints and foreign debt.

Left History: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Historical Inquiry and Debate, 2000

Both of these books, then, seem to end on notes of defeat, if not failure. Mullen's Chicago radic... more Both of these books, then, seem to end on notes of defeat, if not failure. Mullen's Chicago radicals end up laying the foundation for Ebony, a mass market, middle class magazine, while Maxwell's New York City radicals are, at best, able to leave the left under their own terms. But, in the process of these books, in their analyses, in the stories they tell along the way, there is great hopehope of a cultural politics that links race and class in constructive ways, hope that links white cultural workers and cultural workers of colour in ways that expand them without diminishing them, hope that comes from understanding what earlier generations of radicals might have done wrong, and, perhaps most of all, the hope that comes from the inspiration of being exposed to the

This study asserts that countries with large internally displaced populations (IDPs) are more lik... more This study asserts that countries with large internally displaced populations (IDPs) are more likely to experience a higher rate of suicide terrorism. After demonstrating this, the study tests four intervening factors hypothesized to drive the relationship between IDPs and suicide attacks: IDPs are expected (1) to increase the pool of potential suicide recruits, thereby lowering the labor costs for suicide terrorist groups; (2) to increase local ethnic conflicts that foster a favorable environment for suicide terrorism; (3) to worsen the human rights conditions in countries, prompting aggrieved people to support suicide terrorist tactics; and (4) to raise the counterterrorism and policing costs of the state, enabling terrorists to plan and execute suicide attacks. Results from negative binomial regression and Tobit models show evidence for the IDPssuicide terrorism connection. When recursive models are employed to evaluate the effects of four intervening variables, the results most ...

Given that immigration policy and terrorism are two hotly debated issues, this study empirically ... more Given that immigration policy and terrorism are two hotly debated issues, this study empirically examines the effects of twelve different restrictive policies that Western democratic states use to screen immigrants for terrorism prevention. This study finds mixed effects of restrictive policy alternatives. On the one hand, terrorism is likely to decrease when states impose immigration restrictions based on skill or wealth, or when states offer immigrants limited legal rights that permit only restricted residence and designated employers. On the other hand, terrorism is expected to increase when states allow no special visas or procedures to recruit immigrants, or when states give workers citizenship only when they are born to a native parent. These mixed findings suggest that to deter future terrorist incidents, states should be selective in initiating and implementing new immigration reforms.

Nations and Nationalism, 2021

PLoS ONE, 2022

This replication underlines the importance of outlier diagnostics since many researchers have lon... more This replication underlines the importance of outlier diagnostics since many researchers have long neglected influential observations in OLS regression analysis. In his article, entitled “Primary Resources, Secondary Labor,” Shin finds that advanced democracies with increased natural resource wealth, particularly from oil and natural gas production, are more likely to restrict low-skill immigration policy. By performing outlier diagnostics, this replication shows that Shin’s findings are a statistical artifact. When one outlying country, Norway, is removed from the sample data, I observe almost no significant and negative relationship between oil wealth and immigration policy. When two outlying countries are excluded, the effect of oil wealth completely disappears. Robust regression analysis, a widely used remedial method for outlier problems, confirms the results of my outlier diagnostics.

Review of International Political Economy

Asian Perspective

Although South Korea has elected every president under the same democratic constitution since 198... more Although South Korea has elected every president under the same democratic constitution since 1987, it has an ongoing puzzle: why do some presidents personalize their regimes (or at least made an effort to do so) while others remain democratic? To explain this puzzle, this study introduces a novel concept, a "lemon presidency." This is where a democratically elected president engenders a personalized regime that is backed by prejudiced judicial authorities such as courts and prosecutors' offices. South Korea experienced two lemon presidencies under Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye. South Koreans viewed Lee and Park as true representatives of democracy during the 2007 and 2012 presidential elections; however, they turned out to possess an unrealistic sense of superiority and became semi-democratic rulers. They personalized political powers by exploiting their appointment and removal powers. Based on case studies and survey results, this study provides evidence for Lee's and Park's lemon presidencies. The overall analysis of this study envisions another lemon presidency in South Korea's future if voters choose to vote for a grandiose leader.

The online version of this article can be found at:

Civil-Military Dynamics, Democracy, and International Conflict, 2005

This chapter reviews extant literature on the democratic peace. After briefly summarizing the cor... more This chapter reviews extant literature on the democratic peace. After briefly summarizing the core propositions of the democratic peace, it presents a series of criticisms under four headings: (a) paradigmatic debates, (b) neglected issues related to covert interventions and democratization, (c) methodological predicaments, and (d) problematic assertions from rational choice theory. In response to its critics, the recent evolution and prospects of the democratic peace are covered as well. This chapter culminates in the suggestion that current scholarship on peace and conflict can benefit from a foreign policy decision-making process model that incorporates the four key elements noted at the outset of the book: (a) civil-military relations, (b) military manpower system, (c) diplomatic channels, and (d) media openness.

International Trade, Politics and Development, 2021

PurposeThis study proposes a Bayesian approach to analyze structural breaks and examines whether ... more PurposeThis study proposes a Bayesian approach to analyze structural breaks and examines whether structural changes have occurred, at the onset of civil war, with respect to economic development and population during the period from 1945 to 1999.Design/methodology/approachIn the Bayesian logit regression changepoint model, parameters of covariates are allowed to shift individually, regime transitions can move back and forth, and the model is applicable to cross-sectional, time-series data.FindingsContrary to popular belief that the causal process of civil war changed with the end of the Cold War, the empirical analysis shows that the regression relationships between civil war and economic development, as well as between civil war and population, remain quite stable during the study period.Originality/valueThis is the first to develop a Bayesian logit regression changepoint model and to apply it to studies of economic development and civil war.

Purpose – This study proposes a Bayesian approach to analyze structural breaks and examines wheth... more Purpose – This study proposes a Bayesian approach to analyze structural breaks and examines whether structural changes have occurred, at the onset of civil war, with respect to economic development and population during the period from 1945 to 1999. Design/methodology/approach – In the Bayesian logit regression changepoint model, parameters of covariates are allowed to shift individually, regime transitions can move back and forth, and the model is applicable to cross-sectional, time-series data. Findings – Contrary to popular belief that the causal process of civil war changed with the end of the Cold War, the empirical analysis shows that the regression relationships between civil war and economic development, as well as between civil war and population, remain quite stable during the study period. Originality/value –This is the first to develop a Bayesian logit regression changepoint model and to apply it to studies of economic development and civil war.

Among the four factors introduced in this book, media openness has emerged as preeminent at the d... more Among the four factors introduced in this book, media openness has emerged as preeminent at the dyadic level in its association with avoiding MIDs. The effects of media openness supersede those from the other components of the foreign policy decision-making model as well as Oneal and Russett’s (1999c) three neo-Kantian peace variables (i.e., democraticness, economic interdependence, and joint membership in international organizations). These persistent and important findings encourage more in-depth assessment of media as a component of democracy in direct comparison with Polity-based democracy. In particular, the institutional elements from the quasistandard Polity Index might be re-examined when compared with media openness with regard to explanation of MIDs and related phenomena. Thus, the present chapter presents (a) more refined theoretical linkages between media and conflict and (b) additional empirical tests for the longer period from 1950 to 1992, which corresponds approximat...

Civil-Military Dynamics, Democracy, and International Conflict, 2005

Whether military fatalities can restrain belligerent foreign policies is an interesting issue for... more Whether military fatalities can restrain belligerent foreign policies is an interesting issue for both theory and practice of international relations.1 Vigilant about potential loss of precious life, the public may be expected to raise its voice against military actions (Gartner and Segura 1998). In this regard, Luttwak (1996: 36) argues that “the prospect of high casualties, which can rapidly undermine domestic support for any military operation, is the key political constraint when decisions must be made on which forces to deploy in a crisis, and at what levels.” Sophisticated data analysis suggests that to be more than just speculation (Gartzke 2001). Oneal et al. (2003) use distributed-lag models to determine that democracy, economic interdependence, and joint membership in international organizations decrease the likelihood of fatal MIDs.

Japanese Journal of Political Science, 2021

The world population of Muslims has increased exponentially in the past decade. Why is the world&... more The world population of Muslims has increased exponentially in the past decade. Why is the world's Muslim population growing so quickly? This study offers a new theoretical perspective: the growth of the worldwide Muslim population is a result of a series of terrorist campaigns that inspire non-Muslims to convert to Islam. For empirical testing, this study employs a cross-national, time-series analysis of 152 countries from 1970 to 2007. Although there is lack of data on conversions that follow terrorist campaigns for a direct test of the theory, this study finds a correlation between terrorist attacks and growth of the Muslim population. This finding is robust and consistent even after controlling for salient demographic reasons for growth, such as the level of fertility and immigration.

The Review of International Organizations, 2021

von Borzyskowski and Vabulas' Review of International Organizations 14(2):335-366 (2019) pioneeri... more von Borzyskowski and Vabulas' Review of International Organizations 14(2):335-366 (2019) pioneering research explores why states withdraw from intergovernmental organizations (IGOs). Contrary to popular belief, the research finds that IGO withdrawal has little to do with increased nationalism and instead is largely driven by geopolitical reasons and democracy levels both within the state and organization. In this study, I test von Borzyskowski and Vabulas' empirical analysis by the introduction of an alternative measure of leader nationalism that more closely matches their theoretical argument. With this alternative nationalism measure, I find strong evidence consistent with popular belief: nationalism is a key driving force for IGO withdrawals across space and time.

International Trade, Politics and Development, 2019

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine a curvilinear effect of legislative constraints o... more Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine a curvilinear effect of legislative constraints on foreign debt. Design/methodology/approach A cross-sectional, time-series data analysis of 68 developing countries during the period from 1981 to 1999 was performed. Findings Foreign borrowing is most likely to increase at both low and high levels of legislative constraints, while it is most likely to decrease at moderate levels. Originality/value The paper is a first-cut empirical analysis of a curvilinear relationship between legislative constraints and foreign debt.

Left History: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Historical Inquiry and Debate, 2000

Both of these books, then, seem to end on notes of defeat, if not failure. Mullen's Chicago radic... more Both of these books, then, seem to end on notes of defeat, if not failure. Mullen's Chicago radicals end up laying the foundation for Ebony, a mass market, middle class magazine, while Maxwell's New York City radicals are, at best, able to leave the left under their own terms. But, in the process of these books, in their analyses, in the stories they tell along the way, there is great hopehope of a cultural politics that links race and class in constructive ways, hope that links white cultural workers and cultural workers of colour in ways that expand them without diminishing them, hope that comes from understanding what earlier generations of radicals might have done wrong, and, perhaps most of all, the hope that comes from the inspiration of being exposed to the