Christian Ahortor - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Christian Ahortor

The International Journal of Applied Economics and Finance, 2010

In this paper we analyzed a dynamic cross-country panel dataset on 31 sampled developing countrie... more In this paper we analyzed a dynamic cross-country panel dataset on 31 sampled developing countries involving 16 Latin America and the Caribbean, and 15 Sub-Sahara African countries within the framework of Blundell-Bond Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Our results show that generally the impact of remittance inflows on overall development differ across regions. Specifically, the paper reveals that the positive role of international remittances in the development process of underdeveloped economies is more pronounced in Sub-Saharan Africa than in Latin America and the Caribbean sub-region where remittances actually retard socioeconomic development prospects. It would, therefore, be politically imprudent and economically suicidal, to over-depend on international remittances as the panacea for the underdevelopment of Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean. The contribution of this paper is unique because it has examined the long-run impact of international remittances o...

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007

The paper studies multidimensional aspects of the phenomenon of poverty and living conditions in ... more The paper studies multidimensional aspects of the phenomenon of poverty and living conditions in Ghana. The aim is to fill the vacuum that has been left over by the traditional uni-dimensional measures of deprivation based on poverty lines, exclusively estimated on the basis of monetary variables such as income or consumption expenditure. It combines monetary and non-monetary, qualitative and quantitative indicators, including housing conditions, the possession of durable goods, equivalent disposable income and equivalent expenditure, to a number of composite measures of human welfare. The study employs the fuzzy-set theoretic framework to compare levels of deprivation in Ghana over time using micro data from the last two rounds of the Ghana Living Standard Surveys (1991/1992 and 1998/1999). The results of the estimation of the membership functions, depicting the levels of deprivation for the various categories of deprivation indicators, show a composite deprivation degree of 0.2137 for the whole country in 1998/99 as compared to 0.2123 in 1991/92. This deprivation trend reveals that poverty appears to have witnessed scarcely any change in Ghana and even rose slightly during the nineties, contrary to the uni-dimensional analytical GLSS 4 report of an overall broadly favourable trend in poverty in Ghana during the 1990s.

Journal of Applied Sciences, 2010

Journal of Applied Sciences, 2009

MPRA Paper, 2008

Remittances, Exchange Rate, and Monetary Policy in Ghana. by. Deodat E. Adenutsi 1 and Christian ... more Remittances, Exchange Rate, and Monetary Policy in Ghana. by. Deodat E. Adenutsi 1 and Christian RK Ahortor 2. ABSTRACT. Within the context of the Ghanaian macroeconomy, this paper explores the monetary factors underlying ...

The fundamental objective of this study is to empirically explore the macroeconomic factors that ... more The fundamental objective of this study is to empirically explore the macroeconomic factors that explain variations in migrant remittance inflows to Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In doing this, the paper sampled 38 out of 48 SSA countries for which consistent balanced panel data can be constructed for the period 2000-2009. The Blundell-Bond system GMM dynamic panel data analytical framework was adopted. The results show that migrant remittances are largely driven by altruism, a signal that the sub-region has not been able to attract more ‘self-interest remittances’, probably due to unattractive investment climate arising out of implementation of unsound macroeconomic policies. The key macroeconomic determinants of remittance flows, measured as a percentage of GDP, are home-country income, host-country income, income differential, inflation, real interest rate differential, real exchange rate depreciation, private sector credit, institutional quality and remittance inflows inertia. While...

This study estimates the threshold level and the optimal range of inflation conducive for economi... more This study estimates the threshold level and the optimal range of inflation conducive for economic growth in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) with focus on Nigeria and Ghana. By an extension, the study endeavours to identify the determinants and direction of growth in these economies. The empirical model formulated is non-linear, reflecting the structure of the economies under study and requiring a conditional least squares estimation technique that has been widely used to estimate optimal inflation for both developed and developing economies. The findings strongly suggest the existence of threshold inflation levels for both countries, but not at the single digit that the WAMZ inflation convergence criterion dictates. The estimated optimal inflation ranges, however, indicate that the two countries can comply with the WAMZ single-digit inflation criterion without any significant loss of real GDP growth. The results are useful for policymakers in providing some clues in setting a...

The study investigates the level of coordination between the fiscal and monetary authorities in t... more The study investigates the level of coordination between the fiscal and monetary authorities in the WAMZ countries and its implications for the attainment of the inflation and fiscal deficit criteria. To achieve this objective, the study utilizes the Set Theoretic Approach (STA) and the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling to estimate the degree of policy coordination in the Zone. The empirical analysis uses annual data for the period 1980-2011. Under the STA, coordination exists when shocks to policy goals elicit prudent policy responses. In the case of the VAR, the strength of coordination is measured by the impulse responses of fiscal and monetary policy variables to innovations in inflation, output gap and exchange rate. The results reveal weak policy coordination in all the WAMZ countries during the period, contributing to the non-compliance with respect to inflation and fiscal deficit criteria. The results of the set theoretic models show that explicit policy coordination scores in the WAMZ countries are less than 50.0 percent, with The Gambia obtaining a coordination score of 46.6 percent, Ghana (34.5), Guinea (31.8), Liberia (37.9), Nigeria (46.6) and Sierra Leone (41.3). Additionally, the monetary authorities in the WAMZ countries tend to implement relatively more prudent policies than the fiscal authorities, except in the case of Guinea, where the two policies are at par in terms of prudence. The results of the impulse response also indicate that there is weak response to shocks induced by different variables. It takes a long period for the variables to convergence to their long-run equilibrium path. The key recommendation is that WAMZ countries should strengthen policy coordination by putting in place formal coordination platforms and institutional arrangements for timely and adequate statistics, binding commitments and effective monitoring and evaluation of policy outcomes.

Tanzanian Economic Review, 2011

Mpra Paper, 2009

The analytical framework of this paper makes use of a hexa-variate panel vector autoregressive (P... more The analytical framework of this paper makes use of a hexa-variate panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) approach on balanced annual panel data from 30 sampled importdependent developing economies for the period, 1970-2006. The variables included in the empirical PVAR model are inflation, capital accumulation, output growth rate, interest rate, exchange rate, terms of trade and import dependence. Our empirical results suggest that the long-run static impact of capital accumulation and economic growth on inflation is negative. Besides, inflation and economic growth had dampening effects on capital accumulation contemporaneously in the long run. The short-run dynamics also indicate that while it is possible for any previous disequilibrium in inflation, capital accumulation and economic growth relationship to be corrected overtime, the speed of adjustment to equilibrium is so sluggish that it will take a very long time for this to manifest. Exchange rate and money supply produce short-run dynamics that drive price levels in import-dependent developing economies. It is, therefore, recommended that in order to reduce inflation in importdependent economies, demand management policies should be used in the short run, while macroeconomic policies should be directed at enhancing economic growth and capital accumulation in the long run.

As the Ghanaian economy moved from a regime of command and control to a market oriented one, seve... more As the Ghanaian economy moved from a regime of command and control to a market oriented one, several far-reaching economic reforms have been implemented to help transform the economy and put it on a path leading to the attainment of middle-income status. These reforms, in most cases, sought to relax the regulatory environment such that regulations serve more as lubricants for fair competition than as barriers in the way of economic development. The telecommunication sector was also blessed with one of these reforms. In the wake of the telecom sector reforms, the state-owned Post and Telecommunication Corporation, the only major player in the telecom sector at the time, was split into two entities namely Ghana Post and Ghana Telecom. In a bid to liberalise the sector, Ghana Telecom was privatised and a second network operator (SNO) was licensed to create a duopoly in the telecom industry. Prior to the telecom sector reforms, not-less-than four regulatory bodies were regulating the sector but their functions were ceded to the National Communications Authority (NCA) as the sole regulator of the sector as the reform gathered momentum. The stage was, therefore, thought to be set for a fair competition among operators. The rate of infrastructure development more than doubled and the quality of service improved slightly during the post-reform period. However, the two network operators could not meet their expansion targets set in their licences in terms of fixed line installations. Heavy pecuniary penalties were slapped on them. Operators mostly blamed their nonperformance on the Regulator's inability to create a level playing field in the sector. The key problem of the sector centres on interconnectivity between operators but the Regulator has not been adequately and firmly positioned to deal with this problem. For the Regulator to make an impact it is suggested that the NCA Board be properly constituted while efforts are made to appoint its substantive head, develop its regulatory guidelines, and make it completely independent of governmental control.

The study investigates the effect of changes in the exchange rate on output growth and inflation ... more The study investigates the effect of changes in the exchange rate on output growth and inflation in the WAMZ economies. It formulates an open-economy general equilibrium model which highlights the interrelationships among real GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate depreciation/ appreciation and money supply growth. Employing quarterly data series for the period 1981Q1 to 2010Q4 for all countries except Ghana (1983Q2 to 2010Q4) and Guinea (1989Q1 to 2010Q4), the study uses the vector autoregressive (VAR) model to estimate the impulse response functions and variance decompositions for inflation and output in order to determine how inflation and output respond to changes in the exchange rate, and what proportion of inflation and output variance can be explained by the exchange rate. The results of the study suggest that exchange rate had significant impact on inflation in all the Member States. The results reveal a negative relationship between real exchange rate and real GDP growth for...

This paper examines the relationship between exchange-rate volatility and export performance in t... more This paper examines the relationship between exchange-rate volatility and export performance in the WAMZ countries using quarterly data for the period 1990-2010. The paper utilizes the Engel-Granger Dynamic OLS (DOLS) estimation technique as well as the Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) approach to model the real exchange rate volatility. In conformity with theoretical considerations, the results indicate that increases in the exchange-rate volatility exert a significant negative effect upon export in Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone. While a positive relationship is established in the case of The Gambia, exchange-rate volatility impact on Ghana and Guinea is insignificant. The results also reveal a positive relationship between terms of trade and export performance for all the countries, indicating that improvement in terms of trade trigger increases in export performance in the WAMZ countries. Income from the rest of the world is found to have a p...

The focus of this paper was to empirically estimate the threshold levels of inflation in the WAMZ... more The focus of this paper was to empirically estimate the threshold levels of inflation in the WAMZ, using the conditional least square technique. The study also identified the determinants of growth in the WAMZ. The empirical analysis used annual data from 1970-2010 for Ghana, Nigeria and Sierra Leone, and 1980-2010 for the Gambia and Guinea. The results showed that there exists a statistically significant long-run negative relationship between inflation and economic growth for the WAMZ countries. Furthermore, the empirical results strongly suggest the existence of threshold level of inflation for the WAMZ countries, beyond which inflation exert a negative effect on growth. The results revealed an inflation rate of 9 percent as the optimal rate of inflation for the WAMZ countries. The results showed that WAMZ countries threshold inflation rates lie within the convergence criterion of maintaining an inflation rate not exceeding 10 percent. The results are useful for policy makers in p...

The International Journal of Applied Economics and Finance, 2010

In this paper we analyzed a dynamic cross-country panel dataset on 31 sampled developing countrie... more In this paper we analyzed a dynamic cross-country panel dataset on 31 sampled developing countries involving 16 Latin America and the Caribbean, and 15 Sub-Sahara African countries within the framework of Blundell-Bond Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Our results show that generally the impact of remittance inflows on overall development differ across regions. Specifically, the paper reveals that the positive role of international remittances in the development process of underdeveloped economies is more pronounced in Sub-Saharan Africa than in Latin America and the Caribbean sub-region where remittances actually retard socioeconomic development prospects. It would, therefore, be politically imprudent and economically suicidal, to over-depend on international remittances as the panacea for the underdevelopment of Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean. The contribution of this paper is unique because it has examined the long-run impact of international remittances o...

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2007

The paper studies multidimensional aspects of the phenomenon of poverty and living conditions in ... more The paper studies multidimensional aspects of the phenomenon of poverty and living conditions in Ghana. The aim is to fill the vacuum that has been left over by the traditional uni-dimensional measures of deprivation based on poverty lines, exclusively estimated on the basis of monetary variables such as income or consumption expenditure. It combines monetary and non-monetary, qualitative and quantitative indicators, including housing conditions, the possession of durable goods, equivalent disposable income and equivalent expenditure, to a number of composite measures of human welfare. The study employs the fuzzy-set theoretic framework to compare levels of deprivation in Ghana over time using micro data from the last two rounds of the Ghana Living Standard Surveys (1991/1992 and 1998/1999). The results of the estimation of the membership functions, depicting the levels of deprivation for the various categories of deprivation indicators, show a composite deprivation degree of 0.2137 for the whole country in 1998/99 as compared to 0.2123 in 1991/92. This deprivation trend reveals that poverty appears to have witnessed scarcely any change in Ghana and even rose slightly during the nineties, contrary to the uni-dimensional analytical GLSS 4 report of an overall broadly favourable trend in poverty in Ghana during the 1990s.

Journal of Applied Sciences, 2010

Journal of Applied Sciences, 2009

MPRA Paper, 2008

Remittances, Exchange Rate, and Monetary Policy in Ghana. by. Deodat E. Adenutsi 1 and Christian ... more Remittances, Exchange Rate, and Monetary Policy in Ghana. by. Deodat E. Adenutsi 1 and Christian RK Ahortor 2. ABSTRACT. Within the context of the Ghanaian macroeconomy, this paper explores the monetary factors underlying ...

The fundamental objective of this study is to empirically explore the macroeconomic factors that ... more The fundamental objective of this study is to empirically explore the macroeconomic factors that explain variations in migrant remittance inflows to Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In doing this, the paper sampled 38 out of 48 SSA countries for which consistent balanced panel data can be constructed for the period 2000-2009. The Blundell-Bond system GMM dynamic panel data analytical framework was adopted. The results show that migrant remittances are largely driven by altruism, a signal that the sub-region has not been able to attract more ‘self-interest remittances’, probably due to unattractive investment climate arising out of implementation of unsound macroeconomic policies. The key macroeconomic determinants of remittance flows, measured as a percentage of GDP, are home-country income, host-country income, income differential, inflation, real interest rate differential, real exchange rate depreciation, private sector credit, institutional quality and remittance inflows inertia. While...

This study estimates the threshold level and the optimal range of inflation conducive for economi... more This study estimates the threshold level and the optimal range of inflation conducive for economic growth in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) with focus on Nigeria and Ghana. By an extension, the study endeavours to identify the determinants and direction of growth in these economies. The empirical model formulated is non-linear, reflecting the structure of the economies under study and requiring a conditional least squares estimation technique that has been widely used to estimate optimal inflation for both developed and developing economies. The findings strongly suggest the existence of threshold inflation levels for both countries, but not at the single digit that the WAMZ inflation convergence criterion dictates. The estimated optimal inflation ranges, however, indicate that the two countries can comply with the WAMZ single-digit inflation criterion without any significant loss of real GDP growth. The results are useful for policymakers in providing some clues in setting a...

The study investigates the level of coordination between the fiscal and monetary authorities in t... more The study investigates the level of coordination between the fiscal and monetary authorities in the WAMZ countries and its implications for the attainment of the inflation and fiscal deficit criteria. To achieve this objective, the study utilizes the Set Theoretic Approach (STA) and the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling to estimate the degree of policy coordination in the Zone. The empirical analysis uses annual data for the period 1980-2011. Under the STA, coordination exists when shocks to policy goals elicit prudent policy responses. In the case of the VAR, the strength of coordination is measured by the impulse responses of fiscal and monetary policy variables to innovations in inflation, output gap and exchange rate. The results reveal weak policy coordination in all the WAMZ countries during the period, contributing to the non-compliance with respect to inflation and fiscal deficit criteria. The results of the set theoretic models show that explicit policy coordination scores in the WAMZ countries are less than 50.0 percent, with The Gambia obtaining a coordination score of 46.6 percent, Ghana (34.5), Guinea (31.8), Liberia (37.9), Nigeria (46.6) and Sierra Leone (41.3). Additionally, the monetary authorities in the WAMZ countries tend to implement relatively more prudent policies than the fiscal authorities, except in the case of Guinea, where the two policies are at par in terms of prudence. The results of the impulse response also indicate that there is weak response to shocks induced by different variables. It takes a long period for the variables to convergence to their long-run equilibrium path. The key recommendation is that WAMZ countries should strengthen policy coordination by putting in place formal coordination platforms and institutional arrangements for timely and adequate statistics, binding commitments and effective monitoring and evaluation of policy outcomes.

Tanzanian Economic Review, 2011

Mpra Paper, 2009

The analytical framework of this paper makes use of a hexa-variate panel vector autoregressive (P... more The analytical framework of this paper makes use of a hexa-variate panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) approach on balanced annual panel data from 30 sampled importdependent developing economies for the period, 1970-2006. The variables included in the empirical PVAR model are inflation, capital accumulation, output growth rate, interest rate, exchange rate, terms of trade and import dependence. Our empirical results suggest that the long-run static impact of capital accumulation and economic growth on inflation is negative. Besides, inflation and economic growth had dampening effects on capital accumulation contemporaneously in the long run. The short-run dynamics also indicate that while it is possible for any previous disequilibrium in inflation, capital accumulation and economic growth relationship to be corrected overtime, the speed of adjustment to equilibrium is so sluggish that it will take a very long time for this to manifest. Exchange rate and money supply produce short-run dynamics that drive price levels in import-dependent developing economies. It is, therefore, recommended that in order to reduce inflation in importdependent economies, demand management policies should be used in the short run, while macroeconomic policies should be directed at enhancing economic growth and capital accumulation in the long run.

As the Ghanaian economy moved from a regime of command and control to a market oriented one, seve... more As the Ghanaian economy moved from a regime of command and control to a market oriented one, several far-reaching economic reforms have been implemented to help transform the economy and put it on a path leading to the attainment of middle-income status. These reforms, in most cases, sought to relax the regulatory environment such that regulations serve more as lubricants for fair competition than as barriers in the way of economic development. The telecommunication sector was also blessed with one of these reforms. In the wake of the telecom sector reforms, the state-owned Post and Telecommunication Corporation, the only major player in the telecom sector at the time, was split into two entities namely Ghana Post and Ghana Telecom. In a bid to liberalise the sector, Ghana Telecom was privatised and a second network operator (SNO) was licensed to create a duopoly in the telecom industry. Prior to the telecom sector reforms, not-less-than four regulatory bodies were regulating the sector but their functions were ceded to the National Communications Authority (NCA) as the sole regulator of the sector as the reform gathered momentum. The stage was, therefore, thought to be set for a fair competition among operators. The rate of infrastructure development more than doubled and the quality of service improved slightly during the post-reform period. However, the two network operators could not meet their expansion targets set in their licences in terms of fixed line installations. Heavy pecuniary penalties were slapped on them. Operators mostly blamed their nonperformance on the Regulator's inability to create a level playing field in the sector. The key problem of the sector centres on interconnectivity between operators but the Regulator has not been adequately and firmly positioned to deal with this problem. For the Regulator to make an impact it is suggested that the NCA Board be properly constituted while efforts are made to appoint its substantive head, develop its regulatory guidelines, and make it completely independent of governmental control.

The study investigates the effect of changes in the exchange rate on output growth and inflation ... more The study investigates the effect of changes in the exchange rate on output growth and inflation in the WAMZ economies. It formulates an open-economy general equilibrium model which highlights the interrelationships among real GDP growth, inflation, exchange rate depreciation/ appreciation and money supply growth. Employing quarterly data series for the period 1981Q1 to 2010Q4 for all countries except Ghana (1983Q2 to 2010Q4) and Guinea (1989Q1 to 2010Q4), the study uses the vector autoregressive (VAR) model to estimate the impulse response functions and variance decompositions for inflation and output in order to determine how inflation and output respond to changes in the exchange rate, and what proportion of inflation and output variance can be explained by the exchange rate. The results of the study suggest that exchange rate had significant impact on inflation in all the Member States. The results reveal a negative relationship between real exchange rate and real GDP growth for...

This paper examines the relationship between exchange-rate volatility and export performance in t... more This paper examines the relationship between exchange-rate volatility and export performance in the WAMZ countries using quarterly data for the period 1990-2010. The paper utilizes the Engel-Granger Dynamic OLS (DOLS) estimation technique as well as the Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) approach to model the real exchange rate volatility. In conformity with theoretical considerations, the results indicate that increases in the exchange-rate volatility exert a significant negative effect upon export in Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone. While a positive relationship is established in the case of The Gambia, exchange-rate volatility impact on Ghana and Guinea is insignificant. The results also reveal a positive relationship between terms of trade and export performance for all the countries, indicating that improvement in terms of trade trigger increases in export performance in the WAMZ countries. Income from the rest of the world is found to have a p...

The focus of this paper was to empirically estimate the threshold levels of inflation in the WAMZ... more The focus of this paper was to empirically estimate the threshold levels of inflation in the WAMZ, using the conditional least square technique. The study also identified the determinants of growth in the WAMZ. The empirical analysis used annual data from 1970-2010 for Ghana, Nigeria and Sierra Leone, and 1980-2010 for the Gambia and Guinea. The results showed that there exists a statistically significant long-run negative relationship between inflation and economic growth for the WAMZ countries. Furthermore, the empirical results strongly suggest the existence of threshold level of inflation for the WAMZ countries, beyond which inflation exert a negative effect on growth. The results revealed an inflation rate of 9 percent as the optimal rate of inflation for the WAMZ countries. The results showed that WAMZ countries threshold inflation rates lie within the convergence criterion of maintaining an inflation rate not exceeding 10 percent. The results are useful for policy makers in p...