Cristian Moran - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Cristian Moran
Journal of Development Economics, Feb 1, 1983
Abstract The uncertainty associated with trade variability is generally resumed to exert a signif... more Abstract The uncertainty associated with trade variability is generally resumed to exert a significant effect on the domestic economy of loss developed countries inadequately equipped to cope with these fluctuations. The belief that it has a negative influence on these economies has been for several decades the dominant hypothesis among economists. But it has been challenged on both theoretical and empirical growths. The present paper proposes to investigate this problem from an empirical point of view. Cross-country analysis is developed to investigate the influence of export instability on the domestic economy of less advanced nations. The results show that no clear conclusions for the general case can be provided, since they are sensitive to the particular time period considered. A negative impact can be expected when price and quantity instability appear to reinforce each other; but this is not always the case.
The World Bank Economic Review, 1988
A dynamic structural econometric model is developed to analyze movements in manufactured exports ... more A dynamic structural econometric model is developed to analyze movements in manufactured exports and to capture lags in the adjustment to equilibrium. The model is estimated with pooled cross-section time-series data for a representative sample of fifteen developing countries grouped according to their export market power. The results suggest that prices, domestic productive capacity, and external economic activity are critical determinants of manufactured exports from developing countries. The structural parameter estimates are used to infer the effects of changes in destination country income, distinguishing between the short-run and long-run export volume and export revenue effects. The results indicate that domestic economic policies that promote investment and capacity in export-oriented activities are likely to play a key role in increasing foreign exchange earnings in developing countries, even if growth in external demand is slow. The expansion of exports, particularly manufactured exports, has been a major concern for economists and policymakers alike. Through trade, countries can gain access to the critical inputs they need to develop, fostering specialization and increasing factor productivity. Manufactured exports are believed to play a prominent role in this process because of early country experiences linking industrialization and development, and because of the lessons and indirect benefits of industrial expansion-including industrial management, technology acquisition, marketing, and product design and development. Later experience has shown that there may have been an overemphasis on industrialization, however, as several countries achieved high growth of per capita income for long periods on the basis of producing and exporting food, raw materials, or services. But manufactured exports have continued to gain importance in world trade, propelled by the higher income elasticity of demand for manufactures than for primary products, and by the changes in the economic structure associated with increases in per capita income. In the period 1965-85, manufactured exports The author is an economist in the Country Economics Department of the World Bank. He is grateful to Bela Balassa, Riccardo Faini, and Donald Keesing for their helpful comments on an earlier draft and to Gary Evans for assistance.
Estudios De Economia, 1980
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Mar 31, 1988
To assess proposed macroeconomic adjustment programs, policymakers must estimate import demand re... more To assess proposed macroeconomic adjustment programs, policymakers must estimate import demand relative to the foreign exchange available. Traditional models estimate import demand as a function of relative prices (the real exchange rate) and income (gross domestic product) but omit changes in foreign exchange. In the 1 980s, however, declines in foreign lending and the terms of trade and increased debt service costs reduced foreign exchange availability in most developing countries and limited import capacity. In this article two import models are presented which incorporate both the traditional variables and indicators of import capacity-foreign exchange inflows and international reserves. The first model assumes that import prices are exogenous, but in the second model import prices are endogenous-allowing for government attempts to reduce import demand by increasing the domestic import price. The models are estimated using data for twenty-one developing countries for 1970-83. The results suggest that the import model presented here does a better job of explaining import behavior than do the traditional model (which excludes changes in foreign exchange) and the Hemphill model (which excludes relative import prices and income). Trade models have been important tools in the analysis of policy packages to deal with macroeconomic imbalances, and such models have received prominent attention in the economic literature (see Goldstein and Khan 1985 for a good survey of this literature). Although the traditional import model, which links imports to domestic output and relative import prices, has worked well for industrial countries that are unconstrained by foreign exchange, it has not proven useful in explaining the recent slump in the imports of developing countries which are short of foreign exchange (Mirakhor and Montiel 1987). For most developing countries the availability of foreign exchange declined in the early 1980s, as foreign lending cutbacks, interest rates increases, and declining commodity prices forced them to make significant macroeconomic adjustments. As a consequence, merchandise import volumes for all non-oilexporting developing countries remained stagnant from 1981 to 1986, compared with annual increases of more than 6 percent from 1965 to 1981. Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, unable to adjust rapidly to the The author is an economist in the Country Economics Department of the World Bank. He is grateful to Sarma Jayanthi, Abdel Semhadji Semlali, and Sheila Fallon for their assistance, and to Riccardo Faini, Heywood Fleisig, and Mohsin Khan for helpful comments on an earlier draft. X1989 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK.
valuable data on manufactures unit value indices, and to H. Alavi, R. Lynn, and F. Mamaghani for ... more valuable data on manufactures unit value indices, and to H. Alavi, R. Lynn, and F. Mamaghani for their invaluable help and skillful research assistance. Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed rJi The present paper describes some preliminary work done in the Economic Analysis and Projections Department of the World Bank to construct a set of international trade deflators for a large number of developing countries. A Paasche-type price index is calculated for each of 90 individual LDCs, disaggregated into three major commodity categories: manufactures, non-fuel primaries, and fuels. The index for non-fuel primaries was further disaggregated into three groups: food, non-food agriculture, and metals and minerals, and fixed weight price indices calculated for each of these groups for the same number of countries. Corresponding volume indices have been obtained by deflating...
Estudios De Economia, 1981
World Development, 1989
This paper evaluates the experience of economic reforms and stabilization efforts in Chile during... more This paper evaluates the experience of economic reforms and stabilization efforts in Chile during 1973-87. The paper presents a brief historical background, and then reviews the main goals, policy tools, and results of the economic program implemented since the military government came to power in September 1973. The paper discusses in detail the stabilization and structural transformation aspects of the economic program-including the privatization of the economy and the trade and financial liberalization. The main conclusion is that, despite a healthy improvement in the economic situation during 1985-87, the future of the Chilean economy remains uncertain and vulnerable to external shocks. The paper concludes by summarizing the main policy lessons of the Chilean experience.
The World Bank Economic Review, 1989
To assess proposed macroeconomic adjustment programs, policymakers must estimate import demand re... more To assess proposed macroeconomic adjustment programs, policymakers must estimate import demand relative to the foreign exchange available. Traditional models estimate import demand as a function of relative prices (the real exchange rate) and income (gross domestic product) but omit changes in foreign exchange. In the 1 980s, however, declines in foreign lending and the terms of trade and increased debt service costs reduced foreign exchange availability in most developing countries and limited import capacity. In this article two import models are presented which incorporate both the traditional variables and indicators of import capacity-foreign exchange inflows and international reserves. The first model assumes that import prices are exogenous, but in the second model import prices are endogenous-allowing for government attempts to reduce import demand by increasing the domestic import price. The models are estimated using data for twenty-one developing countries for 1970-83. The results suggest that the import model presented here does a better job of explaining import behavior than do the traditional model (which excludes changes in foreign exchange) and the Hemphill model (which excludes relative import prices and income). Trade models have been important tools in the analysis of policy packages to deal with macroeconomic imbalances, and such models have received prominent attention in the economic literature (see Goldstein and Khan 1985 for a good survey of this literature). Although the traditional import model, which links imports to domestic output and relative import prices, has worked well for industrial countries that are unconstrained by foreign exchange, it has not proven useful in explaining the recent slump in the imports of developing countries which are short of foreign exchange (Mirakhor and Montiel 1987). For most developing countries the availability of foreign exchange declined in the early 1980s, as foreign lending cutbacks, interest rates increases, and declining commodity prices forced them to make significant macroeconomic adjustments. As a consequence, merchandise import volumes for all non-oilexporting developing countries remained stagnant from 1981 to 1986, compared with annual increases of more than 6 percent from 1965 to 1981. Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, unable to adjust rapidly to the The author is an economist in the Country Economics Department of the World Bank. He is grateful to Sarma Jayanthi, Abdel Semhadji Semlali, and Sheila Fallon for their assistance, and to Riccardo Faini, Heywood Fleisig, and Mohsin Khan for helpful comments on an earlier draft. X1989 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK.
The World Bank Economic Review, 1988
Journal of Development Economics, 1983
The uncertainty associated with trade variability is general!1 .-esumed to exert a significant ef... more The uncertainty associated with trade variability is general!1 .-esumed to exert a significant effect on the domestic eccnys,;' r '-c developed countries, ir~zc~,; lately equipped to cope with these fluctuations. TLIp belief th :t IL ,"FIS a +le&atiue iv\F;l*c;rce WI these economies !las been fcr several decades tht; UOI~:..-* h,pothesis-hung-ct l & ~1 31s. But it has been challenged on both theoretical and empirical grot'I *qI-! L: 3 _ :.=-at papr proposes tc icirestigate this prrsblem from an t5mpirical point of view. 9 .* r,s-cOUi~h~ a;ialysis is developed to investigate the Influence of export instability on the domes'ic r;onou~qr ?f less advanced nations. The n;sults show that no clear conclusions for the general case can be provided, since they are sensitive to the particular time period considered. A negative impact can be expected when price and quantity instability appear to reinforce each other; but this is not always the case. *I am specially ind.ebted to P. Bardhan, L. .Jarvis and it. Fish\ m. f>r ilaeir encourageFkent and many useful suggestions. D. Coes and an anonymous rofel t'e also made some l~~pful comments on a previous draft.
Journal of Development Economics, 1993
The present paper evaluates the effects of alternative trade policy reforms to the Central Americ... more The present paper evaluates the effects of alternative trade policy reforms to the Central American Common External Tariff (CET) schedule on the Guatemalan economy. To accomplish this, the paper develops a multiperiod Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, with dynamic sequencing to link interperiod equilibria. As is common in other CGE applications, the model allows for product differentiation, sector specitic capital, and substitution in production and consumption. Furthermore, the model incorporates explicitly Guatemala's main economic features-including its membership in the Central American Common Market and gives special attention to the tradable goods and commercial services sectors, to capture adequately the response of the economy to trade policy changes. The trade reforms analyzed include small changes in the average CET rates, and a reduction in the dispersion of nominal protection rates across sectors. The results suggest that GDP, investment, employment and exports, particularly non-traditional exports to non-regional markets, are likely to increase moderately as a result of the policy reforms. Although the changes are modest, they are commensurate with the magnitude of the trade reforms analyzed-and they are likely to underestimate the gains achieved from trade liberalization.
Journal of Development Economics, Feb 1, 1983
Abstract The uncertainty associated with trade variability is generally resumed to exert a signif... more Abstract The uncertainty associated with trade variability is generally resumed to exert a significant effect on the domestic economy of loss developed countries inadequately equipped to cope with these fluctuations. The belief that it has a negative influence on these economies has been for several decades the dominant hypothesis among economists. But it has been challenged on both theoretical and empirical growths. The present paper proposes to investigate this problem from an empirical point of view. Cross-country analysis is developed to investigate the influence of export instability on the domestic economy of less advanced nations. The results show that no clear conclusions for the general case can be provided, since they are sensitive to the particular time period considered. A negative impact can be expected when price and quantity instability appear to reinforce each other; but this is not always the case.
The World Bank Economic Review, 1988
A dynamic structural econometric model is developed to analyze movements in manufactured exports ... more A dynamic structural econometric model is developed to analyze movements in manufactured exports and to capture lags in the adjustment to equilibrium. The model is estimated with pooled cross-section time-series data for a representative sample of fifteen developing countries grouped according to their export market power. The results suggest that prices, domestic productive capacity, and external economic activity are critical determinants of manufactured exports from developing countries. The structural parameter estimates are used to infer the effects of changes in destination country income, distinguishing between the short-run and long-run export volume and export revenue effects. The results indicate that domestic economic policies that promote investment and capacity in export-oriented activities are likely to play a key role in increasing foreign exchange earnings in developing countries, even if growth in external demand is slow. The expansion of exports, particularly manufactured exports, has been a major concern for economists and policymakers alike. Through trade, countries can gain access to the critical inputs they need to develop, fostering specialization and increasing factor productivity. Manufactured exports are believed to play a prominent role in this process because of early country experiences linking industrialization and development, and because of the lessons and indirect benefits of industrial expansion-including industrial management, technology acquisition, marketing, and product design and development. Later experience has shown that there may have been an overemphasis on industrialization, however, as several countries achieved high growth of per capita income for long periods on the basis of producing and exporting food, raw materials, or services. But manufactured exports have continued to gain importance in world trade, propelled by the higher income elasticity of demand for manufactures than for primary products, and by the changes in the economic structure associated with increases in per capita income. In the period 1965-85, manufactured exports The author is an economist in the Country Economics Department of the World Bank. He is grateful to Bela Balassa, Riccardo Faini, and Donald Keesing for their helpful comments on an earlier draft and to Gary Evans for assistance.
Estudios De Economia, 1980
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Mar 31, 1988
To assess proposed macroeconomic adjustment programs, policymakers must estimate import demand re... more To assess proposed macroeconomic adjustment programs, policymakers must estimate import demand relative to the foreign exchange available. Traditional models estimate import demand as a function of relative prices (the real exchange rate) and income (gross domestic product) but omit changes in foreign exchange. In the 1 980s, however, declines in foreign lending and the terms of trade and increased debt service costs reduced foreign exchange availability in most developing countries and limited import capacity. In this article two import models are presented which incorporate both the traditional variables and indicators of import capacity-foreign exchange inflows and international reserves. The first model assumes that import prices are exogenous, but in the second model import prices are endogenous-allowing for government attempts to reduce import demand by increasing the domestic import price. The models are estimated using data for twenty-one developing countries for 1970-83. The results suggest that the import model presented here does a better job of explaining import behavior than do the traditional model (which excludes changes in foreign exchange) and the Hemphill model (which excludes relative import prices and income). Trade models have been important tools in the analysis of policy packages to deal with macroeconomic imbalances, and such models have received prominent attention in the economic literature (see Goldstein and Khan 1985 for a good survey of this literature). Although the traditional import model, which links imports to domestic output and relative import prices, has worked well for industrial countries that are unconstrained by foreign exchange, it has not proven useful in explaining the recent slump in the imports of developing countries which are short of foreign exchange (Mirakhor and Montiel 1987). For most developing countries the availability of foreign exchange declined in the early 1980s, as foreign lending cutbacks, interest rates increases, and declining commodity prices forced them to make significant macroeconomic adjustments. As a consequence, merchandise import volumes for all non-oilexporting developing countries remained stagnant from 1981 to 1986, compared with annual increases of more than 6 percent from 1965 to 1981. Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, unable to adjust rapidly to the The author is an economist in the Country Economics Department of the World Bank. He is grateful to Sarma Jayanthi, Abdel Semhadji Semlali, and Sheila Fallon for their assistance, and to Riccardo Faini, Heywood Fleisig, and Mohsin Khan for helpful comments on an earlier draft. X1989 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK.
valuable data on manufactures unit value indices, and to H. Alavi, R. Lynn, and F. Mamaghani for ... more valuable data on manufactures unit value indices, and to H. Alavi, R. Lynn, and F. Mamaghani for their invaluable help and skillful research assistance. Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed Pu bl ic Di sc lo su re A ut ho riz ed rJi The present paper describes some preliminary work done in the Economic Analysis and Projections Department of the World Bank to construct a set of international trade deflators for a large number of developing countries. A Paasche-type price index is calculated for each of 90 individual LDCs, disaggregated into three major commodity categories: manufactures, non-fuel primaries, and fuels. The index for non-fuel primaries was further disaggregated into three groups: food, non-food agriculture, and metals and minerals, and fixed weight price indices calculated for each of these groups for the same number of countries. Corresponding volume indices have been obtained by deflating...
Estudios De Economia, 1981
World Development, 1989
This paper evaluates the experience of economic reforms and stabilization efforts in Chile during... more This paper evaluates the experience of economic reforms and stabilization efforts in Chile during 1973-87. The paper presents a brief historical background, and then reviews the main goals, policy tools, and results of the economic program implemented since the military government came to power in September 1973. The paper discusses in detail the stabilization and structural transformation aspects of the economic program-including the privatization of the economy and the trade and financial liberalization. The main conclusion is that, despite a healthy improvement in the economic situation during 1985-87, the future of the Chilean economy remains uncertain and vulnerable to external shocks. The paper concludes by summarizing the main policy lessons of the Chilean experience.
The World Bank Economic Review, 1989
To assess proposed macroeconomic adjustment programs, policymakers must estimate import demand re... more To assess proposed macroeconomic adjustment programs, policymakers must estimate import demand relative to the foreign exchange available. Traditional models estimate import demand as a function of relative prices (the real exchange rate) and income (gross domestic product) but omit changes in foreign exchange. In the 1 980s, however, declines in foreign lending and the terms of trade and increased debt service costs reduced foreign exchange availability in most developing countries and limited import capacity. In this article two import models are presented which incorporate both the traditional variables and indicators of import capacity-foreign exchange inflows and international reserves. The first model assumes that import prices are exogenous, but in the second model import prices are endogenous-allowing for government attempts to reduce import demand by increasing the domestic import price. The models are estimated using data for twenty-one developing countries for 1970-83. The results suggest that the import model presented here does a better job of explaining import behavior than do the traditional model (which excludes changes in foreign exchange) and the Hemphill model (which excludes relative import prices and income). Trade models have been important tools in the analysis of policy packages to deal with macroeconomic imbalances, and such models have received prominent attention in the economic literature (see Goldstein and Khan 1985 for a good survey of this literature). Although the traditional import model, which links imports to domestic output and relative import prices, has worked well for industrial countries that are unconstrained by foreign exchange, it has not proven useful in explaining the recent slump in the imports of developing countries which are short of foreign exchange (Mirakhor and Montiel 1987). For most developing countries the availability of foreign exchange declined in the early 1980s, as foreign lending cutbacks, interest rates increases, and declining commodity prices forced them to make significant macroeconomic adjustments. As a consequence, merchandise import volumes for all non-oilexporting developing countries remained stagnant from 1981 to 1986, compared with annual increases of more than 6 percent from 1965 to 1981. Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, unable to adjust rapidly to the The author is an economist in the Country Economics Department of the World Bank. He is grateful to Sarma Jayanthi, Abdel Semhadji Semlali, and Sheila Fallon for their assistance, and to Riccardo Faini, Heywood Fleisig, and Mohsin Khan for helpful comments on an earlier draft. X1989 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK.
The World Bank Economic Review, 1988
Journal of Development Economics, 1983
The uncertainty associated with trade variability is general!1 .-esumed to exert a significant ef... more The uncertainty associated with trade variability is general!1 .-esumed to exert a significant effect on the domestic eccnys,;' r '-c developed countries, ir~zc~,; lately equipped to cope with these fluctuations. TLIp belief th :t IL ,"FIS a +le&atiue iv\F;l*c;rce WI these economies !las been fcr several decades tht; UOI~:..-* h,pothesis-hung-ct l & ~1 31s. But it has been challenged on both theoretical and empirical grot'I *qI-! L: 3 _ :.=-at papr proposes tc icirestigate this prrsblem from an t5mpirical point of view. 9 .* r,s-cOUi~h~ a;ialysis is developed to investigate the Influence of export instability on the domes'ic r;onou~qr ?f less advanced nations. The n;sults show that no clear conclusions for the general case can be provided, since they are sensitive to the particular time period considered. A negative impact can be expected when price and quantity instability appear to reinforce each other; but this is not always the case. *I am specially ind.ebted to P. Bardhan, L. .Jarvis and it. Fish\ m. f>r ilaeir encourageFkent and many useful suggestions. D. Coes and an anonymous rofel t'e also made some l~~pful comments on a previous draft.
Journal of Development Economics, 1993
The present paper evaluates the effects of alternative trade policy reforms to the Central Americ... more The present paper evaluates the effects of alternative trade policy reforms to the Central American Common External Tariff (CET) schedule on the Guatemalan economy. To accomplish this, the paper develops a multiperiod Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, with dynamic sequencing to link interperiod equilibria. As is common in other CGE applications, the model allows for product differentiation, sector specitic capital, and substitution in production and consumption. Furthermore, the model incorporates explicitly Guatemala's main economic features-including its membership in the Central American Common Market and gives special attention to the tradable goods and commercial services sectors, to capture adequately the response of the economy to trade policy changes. The trade reforms analyzed include small changes in the average CET rates, and a reduction in the dispersion of nominal protection rates across sectors. The results suggest that GDP, investment, employment and exports, particularly non-traditional exports to non-regional markets, are likely to increase moderately as a result of the policy reforms. Although the changes are modest, they are commensurate with the magnitude of the trade reforms analyzed-and they are likely to underestimate the gains achieved from trade liberalization.