Daniel A. Dias - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Daniel A. Dias

Research paper thumbnail of From micro to macro: a note on the analysis of aggregate productivity dynamics using firm-level data

Journal of Productivity Analysis, Mar 31, 2021

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Research paper thumbnail of Debt Statistics a la Carte: Alternative Recipes for Measuring Government Indebtedness

IFDP Notes

In this note, we apply our same measurement techniques to the debts of Greece, Ireland and Portug... more In this note, we apply our same measurement techniques to the debts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal and show that plausible alternative measures of indebtedness suggest that Greece is anywhere from as much as 50% more indebted, to as little as half as indebted as either Portugal or Ireland. We argue that most reasonable measures imply that Greece is far less indebted than is commonly reported, and that indebtedness levels across these three economies are roughly similar.

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Research paper thumbnail of that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. The Stock of External Sovereign Debt: Can We Take the Data At ‘Face Value’?

The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of

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Research paper thumbnail of The Effect of Monetary Policy on Housing Tenure Choice as an Explanation for the Price Puzzle

International Finance Discussion Paper, 2016

In this paper we provide an alternative explanation for the price puzzle (Sims 1992) based on the... more In this paper we provide an alternative explanation for the price puzzle (Sims 1992) based on the effect of monetary policy on housing tenure choice and the weight of the shelter component in overall CPI. In the presence of nominal or financial frictions, when interest rates increase, the real cost of owning a house increases, and this increase may make some people prefer to rent instead of buying. This change in consumption behavior increases the price of rents relative to other goods. Starting in 1983, homeownership costs are based on a measure of implied owner equivalent rent, which is calculated using observed house rents. This change implies that, directly and indirectly, prices in the rental market almost entirely command the shelter component of CPI, which weighs around 30% in the overall index. When we take these two pieces into account and use CPI net of shelter services as a measure of inflation, we obtain impulse responses of prices to a monetary contraction shock more in...

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Research paper thumbnail of Every cloud has a silver lining: micro-level evidence on the cleansing effects of the portuguese financial crisis

Using firm level data, we show that the Portuguese financial crisis had, overall, a cleansing eff... more Using firm level data, we show that the Portuguese financial crisis had, overall, a cleansing effect on productivity. During the crisis, aggregate productivity gains, both in manufacturing and services, came from relatively higher contributions of entry and exit of firms and from reallocation of resources between surviving firms. At the microlevel, we find that the crisis reduced the probability of survival for high and low productivity firms, but hit low productivity firms disproportionately harder, in line with the cleansing hypothesis. The correlation between productivity and employment growth in manufacturing and services strengthened, but the correlation between productivity and capital growth in the service sector weakened. We attribute this result in part to structural sectoral differences, but mainly to the large negative demand and credit shocks that affected mainly the nontradable services sub-sector. We also find that the probability of exit increased disproportionately f...

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Research paper thumbnail of Price-Reviewing Strategies Using Firm-Level Data *

In this regard, an important conclusion that emerges from the literature is that fi rms differ fr... more In this regard, an important conclusion that emerges from the literature is that fi rms differ from each other with respect to their price-reviewing or price-setting strategies, and that the different strategies are all widespread in the economy.1 A second important conclusion is that the effects of monetary policy may depend crucially on the underlying mechanism of fi rms’ price adjustment, namely on whether fi rms follow state-dependent or time-dependent price-setting rules.2 Understanding the factors that lie behind fi rms’ choice of different price-reviewing strategies is thus an issue of paramount importance.

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Research paper thumbnail of From micro to macro: a note on the analysis of aggregate productivity dynamics using firm-level data

Journal of Productivity Analysis, 2021

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Research paper thumbnail of The life cycle of exporting rms

We use detailed micro data from the Portuguese manufacturing sector to study the evolution of exp... more We use detailed micro data from the Portuguese manufacturing sector to study the evolution of export performance over the …rm life cycle. We …nd that, as …rms age, the distributions of employment, export revenue, number of destinations and exported products shift progressively to the right. We also show that market selection based on initial size or export performance plays a minor role in explaining this evolution; and that, as …rms grow older, they tend to pay higher wages, import more expensive inputs, and charge higher prices for exports, especially in sectors with greater scope for product di¤erentiation. This evidence points to a life cycle in which successful exporters typically start small and grow progressively as they age; …rst at home, then abroad; while upgrading the quality of their products. We discuss the implications of these …ndings for recent theories of export dynamics. Keywords: Firm-level exporting, …rm dynamics, product quality. JEL: F1. We would like to thank ...

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Research paper thumbnail of Stylised Features of Price Setting Behaviour in Portugal: 1992-2001

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2004

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Research paper thumbnail of Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing

International Finance Discussion Paper, 2019

China’s economy has become larger and more interconnected with the rest of the world, thus raisin... more China’s economy has become larger and more interconnected with the rest of the world, thus raising the possibility that acute financial stress in China may lead to global financial instability. This paper analyzes the potential spillovers of such an event to the rest of the world with three methodologies: a VAR, an event study, and a DSGE model. We find the sentiment channel to be the primary spillover channel to the United States, affecting global risk aversion and asset prices such as equity prices and the dollar, in addition to modest real effects through the trade channel. In comparison, the combined financial and real effects to other advanced and emerging market economies, especially net commodity exporters, would be more consequential due to their larger direct exposure to China and more limited scope of monetary policy to respond to shocks.

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Research paper thumbnail of Every Cloud has a Silver Lining: Cleansing Effects of the Portuguese Financial Crisis

International Finance Discussion Paper, 2019

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Research paper thumbnail of Monetary policy, housing rents, and inflation dynamics

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2019

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Research paper thumbnail of A Tale of Two Sectors: Why is Misallocation Higher in Services than in Manufacturing?

IMF Working Papers, 2016

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Research paper thumbnail of Learning, Prices, and Firm Dynamics

Policy Research Working Papers, 2016

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Research paper thumbnail of Misallocation and Productivity in the Lead Up to the Eurozone Crisis

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015

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Research paper thumbnail of Regaining Market Access: What Determines the Duration of Exclusion?

This paper examines why some countries are able to regain access to interna-tional capital market... more This paper examines why some countries are able to regain access to interna-tional capital markets immediately after resolving a default, whereas other coun-tries appear to be punished for longer periods. We …rst develop a methodology to determine when market access occurs after default settlement. Our main …ndings from examining the duration of exclusion from international capital markets be-tween 1980-2005 in Latin American countries are the following: i) countries regain partial market access after 1.8 years on average (median of 1.0 year) while it takes 4.8 years on average (median of 4.0 years) to regain full market access; ii) partial market access depends mostly on short-term domestic and external conditions; iii) full market access depends primarily on investors'perceived outlook for a country; and iv) size matters, with large economies regaining market access twice as fast as small countries.

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Research paper thumbnail of The Determinants of Downward Wage Rigidity: Some Methodological Considerations and New Empiri-Cal Evidence

This article discusses the identifi cation of the determinants of downward wage rigidity and illu... more This article discusses the identifi cation of the determinants of downward wage rigidity and illustrates empirically its importance in Europe. It is shown that the models estimated so far in the literature suffer from econometric problems that prevent the contributions of those determinants to be correctly identifi ed or precisely estimated. An empirical exercise, along the lines discussed in this article, using survey data for 15 European Union countries, shows that the results may signifi cantly differ from the ones previously obtained in the literature. Together, the theoretical considerations and the estimated results suggest that new empirical evidence is required before defi nite conclusions on the determinants of downward nominal or real wage rigidity can be drawn.

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Research paper thumbnail of Duration of Capital Market Exclusion: An Empirical Investigation

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009

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Research paper thumbnail of A replication note on downward nominal and real wage rigidity: survey evidence from European firms

Empirical Economics, 2015

This note shows that the models estimated in Babecký et al. (Scand J Econ 112(4):884–910, 2010) d... more This note shows that the models estimated in Babecký et al. (Scand J Econ 112(4):884–910, 2010) do not allow identifying the determinants of downward nominal wage rigidity and provides new empirical evidence on the importance of downward nominal wage rigidity and its determinants in several European countries.

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Research paper thumbnail of The Stock of External Sovereign Debt: Can We Take the Data at Face Valuee?

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2014

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Research paper thumbnail of From micro to macro: a note on the analysis of aggregate productivity dynamics using firm-level data

Journal of Productivity Analysis, Mar 31, 2021

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Research paper thumbnail of Debt Statistics a la Carte: Alternative Recipes for Measuring Government Indebtedness

IFDP Notes

In this note, we apply our same measurement techniques to the debts of Greece, Ireland and Portug... more In this note, we apply our same measurement techniques to the debts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal and show that plausible alternative measures of indebtedness suggest that Greece is anywhere from as much as 50% more indebted, to as little as half as indebted as either Portugal or Ireland. We argue that most reasonable measures imply that Greece is far less indebted than is commonly reported, and that indebtedness levels across these three economies are roughly similar.

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. The Stock of External Sovereign Debt: Can We Take the Data At ‘Face Value’?

The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of The Effect of Monetary Policy on Housing Tenure Choice as an Explanation for the Price Puzzle

International Finance Discussion Paper, 2016

In this paper we provide an alternative explanation for the price puzzle (Sims 1992) based on the... more In this paper we provide an alternative explanation for the price puzzle (Sims 1992) based on the effect of monetary policy on housing tenure choice and the weight of the shelter component in overall CPI. In the presence of nominal or financial frictions, when interest rates increase, the real cost of owning a house increases, and this increase may make some people prefer to rent instead of buying. This change in consumption behavior increases the price of rents relative to other goods. Starting in 1983, homeownership costs are based on a measure of implied owner equivalent rent, which is calculated using observed house rents. This change implies that, directly and indirectly, prices in the rental market almost entirely command the shelter component of CPI, which weighs around 30% in the overall index. When we take these two pieces into account and use CPI net of shelter services as a measure of inflation, we obtain impulse responses of prices to a monetary contraction shock more in...

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Research paper thumbnail of Every cloud has a silver lining: micro-level evidence on the cleansing effects of the portuguese financial crisis

Using firm level data, we show that the Portuguese financial crisis had, overall, a cleansing eff... more Using firm level data, we show that the Portuguese financial crisis had, overall, a cleansing effect on productivity. During the crisis, aggregate productivity gains, both in manufacturing and services, came from relatively higher contributions of entry and exit of firms and from reallocation of resources between surviving firms. At the microlevel, we find that the crisis reduced the probability of survival for high and low productivity firms, but hit low productivity firms disproportionately harder, in line with the cleansing hypothesis. The correlation between productivity and employment growth in manufacturing and services strengthened, but the correlation between productivity and capital growth in the service sector weakened. We attribute this result in part to structural sectoral differences, but mainly to the large negative demand and credit shocks that affected mainly the nontradable services sub-sector. We also find that the probability of exit increased disproportionately f...

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Price-Reviewing Strategies Using Firm-Level Data *

In this regard, an important conclusion that emerges from the literature is that fi rms differ fr... more In this regard, an important conclusion that emerges from the literature is that fi rms differ from each other with respect to their price-reviewing or price-setting strategies, and that the different strategies are all widespread in the economy.1 A second important conclusion is that the effects of monetary policy may depend crucially on the underlying mechanism of fi rms’ price adjustment, namely on whether fi rms follow state-dependent or time-dependent price-setting rules.2 Understanding the factors that lie behind fi rms’ choice of different price-reviewing strategies is thus an issue of paramount importance.

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Research paper thumbnail of From micro to macro: a note on the analysis of aggregate productivity dynamics using firm-level data

Journal of Productivity Analysis, 2021

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Research paper thumbnail of The life cycle of exporting rms

We use detailed micro data from the Portuguese manufacturing sector to study the evolution of exp... more We use detailed micro data from the Portuguese manufacturing sector to study the evolution of export performance over the …rm life cycle. We …nd that, as …rms age, the distributions of employment, export revenue, number of destinations and exported products shift progressively to the right. We also show that market selection based on initial size or export performance plays a minor role in explaining this evolution; and that, as …rms grow older, they tend to pay higher wages, import more expensive inputs, and charge higher prices for exports, especially in sectors with greater scope for product di¤erentiation. This evidence points to a life cycle in which successful exporters typically start small and grow progressively as they age; …rst at home, then abroad; while upgrading the quality of their products. We discuss the implications of these …ndings for recent theories of export dynamics. Keywords: Firm-level exporting, …rm dynamics, product quality. JEL: F1. We would like to thank ...

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Research paper thumbnail of Stylised Features of Price Setting Behaviour in Portugal: 1992-2001

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2004

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Research paper thumbnail of Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing

International Finance Discussion Paper, 2019

China’s economy has become larger and more interconnected with the rest of the world, thus raisin... more China’s economy has become larger and more interconnected with the rest of the world, thus raising the possibility that acute financial stress in China may lead to global financial instability. This paper analyzes the potential spillovers of such an event to the rest of the world with three methodologies: a VAR, an event study, and a DSGE model. We find the sentiment channel to be the primary spillover channel to the United States, affecting global risk aversion and asset prices such as equity prices and the dollar, in addition to modest real effects through the trade channel. In comparison, the combined financial and real effects to other advanced and emerging market economies, especially net commodity exporters, would be more consequential due to their larger direct exposure to China and more limited scope of monetary policy to respond to shocks.

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Every Cloud has a Silver Lining: Cleansing Effects of the Portuguese Financial Crisis

International Finance Discussion Paper, 2019

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Monetary policy, housing rents, and inflation dynamics

Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2019

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of A Tale of Two Sectors: Why is Misallocation Higher in Services than in Manufacturing?

IMF Working Papers, 2016

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Learning, Prices, and Firm Dynamics

Policy Research Working Papers, 2016

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Misallocation and Productivity in the Lead Up to the Eurozone Crisis

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Regaining Market Access: What Determines the Duration of Exclusion?

This paper examines why some countries are able to regain access to interna-tional capital market... more This paper examines why some countries are able to regain access to interna-tional capital markets immediately after resolving a default, whereas other coun-tries appear to be punished for longer periods. We …rst develop a methodology to determine when market access occurs after default settlement. Our main …ndings from examining the duration of exclusion from international capital markets be-tween 1980-2005 in Latin American countries are the following: i) countries regain partial market access after 1.8 years on average (median of 1.0 year) while it takes 4.8 years on average (median of 4.0 years) to regain full market access; ii) partial market access depends mostly on short-term domestic and external conditions; iii) full market access depends primarily on investors'perceived outlook for a country; and iv) size matters, with large economies regaining market access twice as fast as small countries.

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of The Determinants of Downward Wage Rigidity: Some Methodological Considerations and New Empiri-Cal Evidence

This article discusses the identifi cation of the determinants of downward wage rigidity and illu... more This article discusses the identifi cation of the determinants of downward wage rigidity and illustrates empirically its importance in Europe. It is shown that the models estimated so far in the literature suffer from econometric problems that prevent the contributions of those determinants to be correctly identifi ed or precisely estimated. An empirical exercise, along the lines discussed in this article, using survey data for 15 European Union countries, shows that the results may signifi cantly differ from the ones previously obtained in the literature. Together, the theoretical considerations and the estimated results suggest that new empirical evidence is required before defi nite conclusions on the determinants of downward nominal or real wage rigidity can be drawn.

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Duration of Capital Market Exclusion: An Empirical Investigation

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of A replication note on downward nominal and real wage rigidity: survey evidence from European firms

Empirical Economics, 2015

This note shows that the models estimated in Babecký et al. (Scand J Econ 112(4):884–910, 2010) d... more This note shows that the models estimated in Babecký et al. (Scand J Econ 112(4):884–910, 2010) do not allow identifying the determinants of downward nominal wage rigidity and provides new empirical evidence on the importance of downward nominal wage rigidity and its determinants in several European countries.

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of The Stock of External Sovereign Debt: Can We Take the Data at Face Valuee?

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2014

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