Daniel A. Dias - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Daniel A. Dias
Journal of Productivity Analysis, Mar 31, 2021
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IFDP Notes
In this note, we apply our same measurement techniques to the debts of Greece, Ireland and Portug... more In this note, we apply our same measurement techniques to the debts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal and show that plausible alternative measures of indebtedness suggest that Greece is anywhere from as much as 50% more indebted, to as little as half as indebted as either Portugal or Ireland. We argue that most reasonable measures imply that Greece is far less indebted than is commonly reported, and that indebtedness levels across these three economies are roughly similar.
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The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of
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International Finance Discussion Paper, 2016
In this paper we provide an alternative explanation for the price puzzle (Sims 1992) based on the... more In this paper we provide an alternative explanation for the price puzzle (Sims 1992) based on the effect of monetary policy on housing tenure choice and the weight of the shelter component in overall CPI. In the presence of nominal or financial frictions, when interest rates increase, the real cost of owning a house increases, and this increase may make some people prefer to rent instead of buying. This change in consumption behavior increases the price of rents relative to other goods. Starting in 1983, homeownership costs are based on a measure of implied owner equivalent rent, which is calculated using observed house rents. This change implies that, directly and indirectly, prices in the rental market almost entirely command the shelter component of CPI, which weighs around 30% in the overall index. When we take these two pieces into account and use CPI net of shelter services as a measure of inflation, we obtain impulse responses of prices to a monetary contraction shock more in...
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Using firm level data, we show that the Portuguese financial crisis had, overall, a cleansing eff... more Using firm level data, we show that the Portuguese financial crisis had, overall, a cleansing effect on productivity. During the crisis, aggregate productivity gains, both in manufacturing and services, came from relatively higher contributions of entry and exit of firms and from reallocation of resources between surviving firms. At the microlevel, we find that the crisis reduced the probability of survival for high and low productivity firms, but hit low productivity firms disproportionately harder, in line with the cleansing hypothesis. The correlation between productivity and employment growth in manufacturing and services strengthened, but the correlation between productivity and capital growth in the service sector weakened. We attribute this result in part to structural sectoral differences, but mainly to the large negative demand and credit shocks that affected mainly the nontradable services sub-sector. We also find that the probability of exit increased disproportionately f...
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In this regard, an important conclusion that emerges from the literature is that fi rms differ fr... more In this regard, an important conclusion that emerges from the literature is that fi rms differ from each other with respect to their price-reviewing or price-setting strategies, and that the different strategies are all widespread in the economy.1 A second important conclusion is that the effects of monetary policy may depend crucially on the underlying mechanism of fi rms’ price adjustment, namely on whether fi rms follow state-dependent or time-dependent price-setting rules.2 Understanding the factors that lie behind fi rms’ choice of different price-reviewing strategies is thus an issue of paramount importance.
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Journal of Productivity Analysis, 2021
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We use detailed micro data from the Portuguese manufacturing sector to study the evolution of exp... more We use detailed micro data from the Portuguese manufacturing sector to study the evolution of export performance over the rm life cycle. We nd that, as rms age, the distributions of employment, export revenue, number of destinations and exported products shift progressively to the right. We also show that market selection based on initial size or export performance plays a minor role in explaining this evolution; and that, as rms grow older, they tend to pay higher wages, import more expensive inputs, and charge higher prices for exports, especially in sectors with greater scope for product di¤erentiation. This evidence points to a life cycle in which successful exporters typically start small and grow progressively as they age; rst at home, then abroad; while upgrading the quality of their products. We discuss the implications of these ndings for recent theories of export dynamics. Keywords: Firm-level exporting, rm dynamics, product quality. JEL: F1. We would like to thank ...
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2004
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International Finance Discussion Paper, 2019
China’s economy has become larger and more interconnected with the rest of the world, thus raisin... more China’s economy has become larger and more interconnected with the rest of the world, thus raising the possibility that acute financial stress in China may lead to global financial instability. This paper analyzes the potential spillovers of such an event to the rest of the world with three methodologies: a VAR, an event study, and a DSGE model. We find the sentiment channel to be the primary spillover channel to the United States, affecting global risk aversion and asset prices such as equity prices and the dollar, in addition to modest real effects through the trade channel. In comparison, the combined financial and real effects to other advanced and emerging market economies, especially net commodity exporters, would be more consequential due to their larger direct exposure to China and more limited scope of monetary policy to respond to shocks.
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International Finance Discussion Paper, 2019
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Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2019
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IMF Working Papers, 2016
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Policy Research Working Papers, 2016
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015
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This paper examines why some countries are able to regain access to interna-tional capital market... more This paper examines why some countries are able to regain access to interna-tional capital markets immediately after resolving a default, whereas other coun-tries appear to be punished for longer periods. We …rst develop a methodology to determine when market access occurs after default settlement. Our main …ndings from examining the duration of exclusion from international capital markets be-tween 1980-2005 in Latin American countries are the following: i) countries regain partial market access after 1.8 years on average (median of 1.0 year) while it takes 4.8 years on average (median of 4.0 years) to regain full market access; ii) partial market access depends mostly on short-term domestic and external conditions; iii) full market access depends primarily on investors'perceived outlook for a country; and iv) size matters, with large economies regaining market access twice as fast as small countries.
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This article discusses the identifi cation of the determinants of downward wage rigidity and illu... more This article discusses the identifi cation of the determinants of downward wage rigidity and illustrates empirically its importance in Europe. It is shown that the models estimated so far in the literature suffer from econometric problems that prevent the contributions of those determinants to be correctly identifi ed or precisely estimated. An empirical exercise, along the lines discussed in this article, using survey data for 15 European Union countries, shows that the results may signifi cantly differ from the ones previously obtained in the literature. Together, the theoretical considerations and the estimated results suggest that new empirical evidence is required before defi nite conclusions on the determinants of downward nominal or real wage rigidity can be drawn.
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009
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Empirical Economics, 2015
This note shows that the models estimated in Babecký et al. (Scand J Econ 112(4):884–910, 2010) d... more This note shows that the models estimated in Babecký et al. (Scand J Econ 112(4):884–910, 2010) do not allow identifying the determinants of downward nominal wage rigidity and provides new empirical evidence on the importance of downward nominal wage rigidity and its determinants in several European countries.
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SSRN Electronic Journal, 2014
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Journal of Productivity Analysis, Mar 31, 2021
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IFDP Notes
In this note, we apply our same measurement techniques to the debts of Greece, Ireland and Portug... more In this note, we apply our same measurement techniques to the debts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal and show that plausible alternative measures of indebtedness suggest that Greece is anywhere from as much as 50% more indebted, to as little as half as indebted as either Portugal or Ireland. We argue that most reasonable measures imply that Greece is far less indebted than is commonly reported, and that indebtedness levels across these three economies are roughly similar.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
International Finance Discussion Paper, 2016
In this paper we provide an alternative explanation for the price puzzle (Sims 1992) based on the... more In this paper we provide an alternative explanation for the price puzzle (Sims 1992) based on the effect of monetary policy on housing tenure choice and the weight of the shelter component in overall CPI. In the presence of nominal or financial frictions, when interest rates increase, the real cost of owning a house increases, and this increase may make some people prefer to rent instead of buying. This change in consumption behavior increases the price of rents relative to other goods. Starting in 1983, homeownership costs are based on a measure of implied owner equivalent rent, which is calculated using observed house rents. This change implies that, directly and indirectly, prices in the rental market almost entirely command the shelter component of CPI, which weighs around 30% in the overall index. When we take these two pieces into account and use CPI net of shelter services as a measure of inflation, we obtain impulse responses of prices to a monetary contraction shock more in...
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Using firm level data, we show that the Portuguese financial crisis had, overall, a cleansing eff... more Using firm level data, we show that the Portuguese financial crisis had, overall, a cleansing effect on productivity. During the crisis, aggregate productivity gains, both in manufacturing and services, came from relatively higher contributions of entry and exit of firms and from reallocation of resources between surviving firms. At the microlevel, we find that the crisis reduced the probability of survival for high and low productivity firms, but hit low productivity firms disproportionately harder, in line with the cleansing hypothesis. The correlation between productivity and employment growth in manufacturing and services strengthened, but the correlation between productivity and capital growth in the service sector weakened. We attribute this result in part to structural sectoral differences, but mainly to the large negative demand and credit shocks that affected mainly the nontradable services sub-sector. We also find that the probability of exit increased disproportionately f...
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
In this regard, an important conclusion that emerges from the literature is that fi rms differ fr... more In this regard, an important conclusion that emerges from the literature is that fi rms differ from each other with respect to their price-reviewing or price-setting strategies, and that the different strategies are all widespread in the economy.1 A second important conclusion is that the effects of monetary policy may depend crucially on the underlying mechanism of fi rms’ price adjustment, namely on whether fi rms follow state-dependent or time-dependent price-setting rules.2 Understanding the factors that lie behind fi rms’ choice of different price-reviewing strategies is thus an issue of paramount importance.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of Productivity Analysis, 2021
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
We use detailed micro data from the Portuguese manufacturing sector to study the evolution of exp... more We use detailed micro data from the Portuguese manufacturing sector to study the evolution of export performance over the rm life cycle. We nd that, as rms age, the distributions of employment, export revenue, number of destinations and exported products shift progressively to the right. We also show that market selection based on initial size or export performance plays a minor role in explaining this evolution; and that, as rms grow older, they tend to pay higher wages, import more expensive inputs, and charge higher prices for exports, especially in sectors with greater scope for product di¤erentiation. This evidence points to a life cycle in which successful exporters typically start small and grow progressively as they age; rst at home, then abroad; while upgrading the quality of their products. We discuss the implications of these ndings for recent theories of export dynamics. Keywords: Firm-level exporting, rm dynamics, product quality. JEL: F1. We would like to thank ...
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2004
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
International Finance Discussion Paper, 2019
China’s economy has become larger and more interconnected with the rest of the world, thus raisin... more China’s economy has become larger and more interconnected with the rest of the world, thus raising the possibility that acute financial stress in China may lead to global financial instability. This paper analyzes the potential spillovers of such an event to the rest of the world with three methodologies: a VAR, an event study, and a DSGE model. We find the sentiment channel to be the primary spillover channel to the United States, affecting global risk aversion and asset prices such as equity prices and the dollar, in addition to modest real effects through the trade channel. In comparison, the combined financial and real effects to other advanced and emerging market economies, especially net commodity exporters, would be more consequential due to their larger direct exposure to China and more limited scope of monetary policy to respond to shocks.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
International Finance Discussion Paper, 2019
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2019
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
IMF Working Papers, 2016
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Policy Research Working Papers, 2016
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2015
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
This paper examines why some countries are able to regain access to interna-tional capital market... more This paper examines why some countries are able to regain access to interna-tional capital markets immediately after resolving a default, whereas other coun-tries appear to be punished for longer periods. We …rst develop a methodology to determine when market access occurs after default settlement. Our main …ndings from examining the duration of exclusion from international capital markets be-tween 1980-2005 in Latin American countries are the following: i) countries regain partial market access after 1.8 years on average (median of 1.0 year) while it takes 4.8 years on average (median of 4.0 years) to regain full market access; ii) partial market access depends mostly on short-term domestic and external conditions; iii) full market access depends primarily on investors'perceived outlook for a country; and iv) size matters, with large economies regaining market access twice as fast as small countries.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
This article discusses the identifi cation of the determinants of downward wage rigidity and illu... more This article discusses the identifi cation of the determinants of downward wage rigidity and illustrates empirically its importance in Europe. It is shown that the models estimated so far in the literature suffer from econometric problems that prevent the contributions of those determinants to be correctly identifi ed or precisely estimated. An empirical exercise, along the lines discussed in this article, using survey data for 15 European Union countries, shows that the results may signifi cantly differ from the ones previously obtained in the literature. Together, the theoretical considerations and the estimated results suggest that new empirical evidence is required before defi nite conclusions on the determinants of downward nominal or real wage rigidity can be drawn.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2009
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
Empirical Economics, 2015
This note shows that the models estimated in Babecký et al. (Scand J Econ 112(4):884–910, 2010) d... more This note shows that the models estimated in Babecký et al. (Scand J Econ 112(4):884–910, 2010) do not allow identifying the determinants of downward nominal wage rigidity and provides new empirical evidence on the importance of downward nominal wage rigidity and its determinants in several European countries.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2014
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact