Daniel Simon - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Daniel Simon
We estimate the impact of the Clean Power Plan (CPP) on SO2 and NOx emissions. We focus on these ... more We estimate the impact of the Clean Power Plan (CPP) on SO2 and NOx emissions. We focus on these copollutants because while the amount of CO2 emitted from electricity generation is well established, the same is not true for local pollutants, SO2 and NOx. Unlike previous papers, and unlike the EPA's own approach, we do not rely on engineering-based linear programming models to assess the effects of the policy. Instead, we use historical data from US power plants to empirically estimate the effects of compliance with the CPP on emissions of SO2 and NOx. In doing so, we provide an alternative approach to assessing the effects of the CPP. Our results suggest that the EPA may be substantially underestimating the reductions in SO2, while likely overestimating the reductions in NOx emissions. These differences are important from a public health perspective, because of the health effects of these co-pollutants. We provide estimates of those health effects using an integrated assessment model. Overall, our results suggest that there is value in using an empirical approach to project the environmental impacts of EPA interventions, rather than relying exclusively on engineering-based analyses.
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2016
We examine how competition affects toxic industrial releases, using five years of data from thous... more We examine how competition affects toxic industrial releases, using five years of data from thousands of facilities across hundreds of industries. Our main result indicates that competition reduces toxic releases. On average, each percentage-point reduction in the Herfindahl Index (HHI) results in a twopercent reduction in a facility's toxic releases, and the effect is larger in more concentrated industries. In addition, we find that competition reduces releases of carcinogenic chemicals, a category of pollutants that pose a particularly acute public health concern. Our results also shed some light on the mechanisms through which firms reduce pollution releases. We find that facilities in more competitive industries engage in more pollution reduction activities. At the same time, we find some evidence that is consistent with facilities in more competitive industries reducing pollution by reducing output. Taken together, our results fail to provide support for the hypothesis that competition leads to more socially undesirable behavior.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010
We examine if and how incumbent firms respond to entry, and entry threats, using non-price modes ... more We examine if and how incumbent firms respond to entry, and entry threats, using non-price modes of competition. Our analysis focuses on service quality within the airline industry. We find that incumbent on-time performance actually worsens in response to entry, and even entry threats, by Southwest Airlines. Given Southwest's general superiority in on-time performance, this result is consistent with equilibria of theoretical models of quality and price competition, which generally predict differentiation along quality. We corroborate this intuition with further analysis, showing there is no notable response by incumbents when an airline with average on-time performance (Continental) threatens to enter or enters a route.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2014
We examine how mergers affect quality provision by analyzing five U.S. airline mergers, focusing ... more We examine how mergers affect quality provision by analyzing five U.S. airline mergers, focusing on on-time performance (OTP). We find mild evidence that merging carriers' OTP worsens in the short run. However, we find consistent evidence that in the long run, their OTP improves. Subsequent analyses indicate efficiency gains, not reduced load factor or passenger volume, underlie our long-run result. Additional analyses of quality provision (e.g., flight cancellations) show no long-run worsening in these areas by merging firms. In the long run, airline mergers do not result in worsening performance, at least along several measures, and provide some time-saving efficiencies.
State-sponsored lotteries are a lucrative source of revenue. Despite their low payout rates, lott... more State-sponsored lotteries are a lucrative source of revenue. Despite their low payout rates, lotteries are extremely popular, particularly among low-income citizens. State officials laud the benefits of lottery proceeds and promote the fun and excitement of participation. This entertainment value is one explanation for lottery demand by the poor: individuals with lower incomes substitute lottery play for other entertainment. Alternatively,
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
We examine two questions: Does precision or roundedness of prices bias magnitude judgments? If so... more We examine two questions: Does precision or roundedness of prices bias magnitude judgments? If so, do these biased judgments affect buyer behavior? In a laboratory pre-test, we find that people incorrectly judge precise prices (e.g., 325,425)tobelowerthanroundpricesofsimilarmagnitudes(e.g.,325,425) to be lower than round prices of similar magnitudes (e.g., 325,425)tobelowerthanroundpricesofsimilarmagnitudes(e.g.,325,000). Building on evidence of greater prevalence of precision in smaller numbers and roundedness in larger numbers (Dehaene and Mehler 1992), we suggest that representativeness of digit patterns might influence magnitude judgments. We term this the "precision heuristic" in price magnitude judgments. We examine the effect of this precision heuristic on buyer's willingness to pay (WTP) in two distinct but complementary ways. First, we conduct a laboratory study to understand the psychological mechanism behind the precision heuristic. We find that people do learn to associate precision with smaller magnitudes, and that this association biases their price magnitude judgments. Additionally, we rule out alternative explanations which posit that a precise price signals a seller's low-price strategy or her unwillingness to negotiate. Based on these findings, we suggest that although the precision heuristic can lead to biased judgments, it is an ecologically valid judgment criterion. Next, using data from more than 27,000 residential real estate transactions in two separate markets, we find that buyers pay higher sale prices when list prices are more precise. This finding is consistent with the precision heuristic, suggesting that buyers perceive precise list prices to be lower, and therefore accept sale prices that are closer to the list price. These results have substantive implications for buyer and seller behaviors, and theoretical implications for the understanding of price cognition process.
We conduct two studies to test three hypotheses: (1) Competition increases a firm's customer sati... more We conduct two studies to test three hypotheses: (1) Competition increases a firm's customer satisfaction; (2) Rivals' customer satisfaction increases a firm's customer satisfaction; (3) Rivals' customer satisfaction reduces a firm's sales. First, we use store-level customer satisfaction data from a supermarket chain. Next, we consider a range of industries, using brand-level customer satisfaction ratings from the American Customer Satisfaction Index. Results from both studies provide support for the latter two hypotheses, while we only find support for the first hypothesis in the second study.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
ABSTRACT We find that driving fatalities increased significantly following the terrorist attacks ... more ABSTRACT We find that driving fatalities increased significantly following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, an event which prompted many travelers to substitute less-safe surface transportation for safer air transportation. After controlling for time trends, weather, road conditions, and other factors, we attribute an increase of 242 driving fatalities per month to additional road travel undertaken in response to 9/11. In total, our results suggest that at least 1,200 additional driving deaths are attributable to the effect of 9/11. We also provide evidence that is consistent with the 9/11 effect on road fatalities weakening over time as drivers return to flying. Our results show that the public response to terrorist threats can create unintended consequences that rival the attacks themselves in severity.
The Journal of Law and Economics, 2007
We examine the impact of two post-9/11 airport security measures—baggage screening and federali... more We examine the impact of two post-9/11 airport security measures—baggage screening and federalization of passenger screening—on demand for air travel in the United States. Exploiting the phased introduction of security measures across airports, we find that baggage screening reduced passenger volume by about 6 percent on all flights and by about 9 percent on flights departing from the nation’s 50
Research Policy, 2009
In this paper we measure the effect of Internet adoption on consumers' propensity to adopt a wide... more In this paper we measure the effect of Internet adoption on consumers' propensity to adopt a wide range of diffusing products. To do this, we utilize a rich panel of household surveys on purchases of relatively new technology products. Our results indicate that the Internet accelerates product diffusion, but with varying magnitude. In an attempt to determine the mechanisms underlying this effect, we find direct evidence that the Internet does not increase product awareness. However, we find suggestive evidence that the Internet increases adoption rates both through access to increased information about new products (via online research) and through online shopping. We also find that the magnitude of the Internet's effect is strongly tied to diffusion rates, and especially familiarity rates. This finding is consistent with Internet access having the greatest impact on the adoption of products with more developed marketing strategies (i.e., more developed information sources and online markets). Our findings indicate that the Internet helps bolster demand for products early in their diffusion process, and they suggest that improved access to information and the convenience of online shopping are likely the primary drivers of this effect. Consequently, to the extent that accelerated diffusion of new products is (on net) desirable, our findings may provide a further argument toward social promotion of Internet adoption.
Managerial and Decision Economics, 2006
Excerpt] Using data from both the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) and Fortune Magazin... more Excerpt] Using data from both the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) and Fortune Magazine's lists of Best Companies, we examine the relationship between making the "Best 100" list and customer satisfaction. Based on a subset of the Best 100 in each year from 1994 to 2002, we find strong evidence that firms on the list earn higher customer satisfaction ratings than firms not on the list. This result is stronger for firms in the service sector than for those in the manufacturing sector. Our analysis also suggests that the increase in customer satisfaction resulting from Best Company status yields about a 1.6 percent increase in return on assets.
Journal of International Business Studies, 2009
... Economica, 41(162): 176193. | Article | ISI; Chung, W., Mitchell, W., & Yeung, B. 2003. ... more ... Economica, 41(162): 176193. | Article | ISI; Chung, W., Mitchell, W., & Yeung, B. 2003. ... ABOUT THE AUTHORS. Garrick Blalock (garrick.blalock@cornell.edu) is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University. He earned h.
Information Economics and Policy, 2007
We examine how offering digital content affects demand for print magazines. Using a searchable we... more We examine how offering digital content affects demand for print magazines. Using a searchable website archive, we measure the digital content offered by a sample of US consumer magazines from 1996 to 2001. We find strong evidence that digital content cannibalizes print sales. ...
Ithaca, NY: Cornell University, …, 2005
... during travel.1 These additional lives lost on the road represent a cost of terrorism that is... more ... during travel.1 These additional lives lost on the road represent a cost of terrorism that is more enduring if less visible than casualties of the 9/11 attacks themselves. ... massive loss of life in the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks traumatized people throughout the nation. ...
BMJ, 2008
Objective To measure the effect of free access to the scientific literature on article downloads ... more Objective To measure the effect of free access to the scientific literature on article downloads and citations. Design Randomised controlled trial. Setting 11 journals published by the American Physiological Society. Participants 1619 research articles and reviews. Main outcome measures Article readership (measured as downloads of full text, PDFs, and abstracts) and number of unique visitors (internet protocol addresses). Citations to articles were gathered from the Institute for Scientific Information after one year. Interventions Random assignment on online publication of articles published in 11 scientific journals to open access (treatment) or subscription access (control).
Applied Economics, 2009
We show that the public's respons... more We show that the public's response to terrorist threats can have unintended consequences that rival the attacks themselves in severity. Driving fatalities increased significantly after the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks, events that prompted many travellers to substitute road transportation for safer air transportation. After controlling for time trends, weather, road conditions and other factors, we find that travellers’ response
Applied Economics, 2011
Excerpt] We test for the existence of gender bias in power relationships. Specifically, we examin... more Excerpt] We test for the existence of gender bias in power relationships. Specifically, we examine whether police officers are less likely to issue traffic tickets to men or to women during traffic stops. Whereas the conventional wisdom, which we document with surveys, is that women are less likely to receive tickets, our analysis shows otherwise. Examination of a pooled sample of traffic stops from five locations reveals no gender bias, but does show significant regional variation in the likelihood of citations. Analysis by location shows that women are more likely to receive citations in three of the five locations. Men are more likely to receive citations in the other two locations. To our knowledge, this study is the first to test for gender bias in traffic stops, and clearly refutes the conventional wisdom that police are more lenient towards women.
American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 2007
State-sponsored lotteries are a lucrative source of revenue.
W e examine two questions: Does the roundness or precision of prices bias magnitude judgments? If... more W e examine two questions: Does the roundness or precision of prices bias magnitude judgments? If so, do these biased judgments affect buyer behavior? Results from five studies suggest that buyers underestimate the magnitudes of precise prices. We term this the precision effect. The first three studies are laboratory experiments designed to test the existence of the precision effect and examine the underlying psychological processes. In Study 1, we find that precise prices are judged to be smaller than round prices of similar magnitudes. For example, participants in this experiment incorrectly judged 395,425tobesmallerthan395,425 to be smaller than 395,425tobesmallerthan395,000. In Study 2, we show that precision is more likely to affect magnitude judgments under conditions of uncertainty. Study 3 demonstrates that manipulating prior experience with the pattern of roundness and precision in numbers can moderate the precision effect. Studies 4 and 5 examine whether the precision effect influences buyers' willingness to pay for negotiated purchases (e.g., houses). In Study 4, we conduct an experiment on a nationally representative sample of homeowners to demonstrate that participants are willing to pay more for houses when the sellers use precise (e.g., 364,578)insteadofcomparableround(e.g.,364,578) instead of comparable round (e.g., 364,578)insteadofcomparableround(e.g.,365,000) prices. In Study 5, we analyze data from residential real estate transactions in two separate markets and find that buyers pay higher sale prices when list prices are more precise. These empirical results enrich our understanding of the psychological processes that underlie price magnitude judgments and have substantive implications for buyer and seller behavior.
State-sponsored lotteries are a lucrative source of revenue. Despite their low payout rates, lott... more State-sponsored lotteries are a lucrative source of revenue. Despite their low payout rates, lotteries are extremely popular, particularly among low-income citizens. State officials laud the benefits of lottery proceeds and promote the fun and excitement of participation. This entertainment value is one explanation for lottery demand by the poor: individuals with lower incomes substitute lottery play for other entertainment. Alternatively,
We estimate the impact of the Clean Power Plan (CPP) on SO2 and NOx emissions. We focus on these ... more We estimate the impact of the Clean Power Plan (CPP) on SO2 and NOx emissions. We focus on these copollutants because while the amount of CO2 emitted from electricity generation is well established, the same is not true for local pollutants, SO2 and NOx. Unlike previous papers, and unlike the EPA's own approach, we do not rely on engineering-based linear programming models to assess the effects of the policy. Instead, we use historical data from US power plants to empirically estimate the effects of compliance with the CPP on emissions of SO2 and NOx. In doing so, we provide an alternative approach to assessing the effects of the CPP. Our results suggest that the EPA may be substantially underestimating the reductions in SO2, while likely overestimating the reductions in NOx emissions. These differences are important from a public health perspective, because of the health effects of these co-pollutants. We provide estimates of those health effects using an integrated assessment model. Overall, our results suggest that there is value in using an empirical approach to project the environmental impacts of EPA interventions, rather than relying exclusively on engineering-based analyses.
Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 2016
We examine how competition affects toxic industrial releases, using five years of data from thous... more We examine how competition affects toxic industrial releases, using five years of data from thousands of facilities across hundreds of industries. Our main result indicates that competition reduces toxic releases. On average, each percentage-point reduction in the Herfindahl Index (HHI) results in a twopercent reduction in a facility's toxic releases, and the effect is larger in more concentrated industries. In addition, we find that competition reduces releases of carcinogenic chemicals, a category of pollutants that pose a particularly acute public health concern. Our results also shed some light on the mechanisms through which firms reduce pollution releases. We find that facilities in more competitive industries engage in more pollution reduction activities. At the same time, we find some evidence that is consistent with facilities in more competitive industries reducing pollution by reducing output. Taken together, our results fail to provide support for the hypothesis that competition leads to more socially undesirable behavior.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010
We examine if and how incumbent firms respond to entry, and entry threats, using non-price modes ... more We examine if and how incumbent firms respond to entry, and entry threats, using non-price modes of competition. Our analysis focuses on service quality within the airline industry. We find that incumbent on-time performance actually worsens in response to entry, and even entry threats, by Southwest Airlines. Given Southwest's general superiority in on-time performance, this result is consistent with equilibria of theoretical models of quality and price competition, which generally predict differentiation along quality. We corroborate this intuition with further analysis, showing there is no notable response by incumbents when an airline with average on-time performance (Continental) threatens to enter or enters a route.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2014
We examine how mergers affect quality provision by analyzing five U.S. airline mergers, focusing ... more We examine how mergers affect quality provision by analyzing five U.S. airline mergers, focusing on on-time performance (OTP). We find mild evidence that merging carriers' OTP worsens in the short run. However, we find consistent evidence that in the long run, their OTP improves. Subsequent analyses indicate efficiency gains, not reduced load factor or passenger volume, underlie our long-run result. Additional analyses of quality provision (e.g., flight cancellations) show no long-run worsening in these areas by merging firms. In the long run, airline mergers do not result in worsening performance, at least along several measures, and provide some time-saving efficiencies.
State-sponsored lotteries are a lucrative source of revenue. Despite their low payout rates, lott... more State-sponsored lotteries are a lucrative source of revenue. Despite their low payout rates, lotteries are extremely popular, particularly among low-income citizens. State officials laud the benefits of lottery proceeds and promote the fun and excitement of participation. This entertainment value is one explanation for lottery demand by the poor: individuals with lower incomes substitute lottery play for other entertainment. Alternatively,
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
We examine two questions: Does precision or roundedness of prices bias magnitude judgments? If so... more We examine two questions: Does precision or roundedness of prices bias magnitude judgments? If so, do these biased judgments affect buyer behavior? In a laboratory pre-test, we find that people incorrectly judge precise prices (e.g., 325,425)tobelowerthanroundpricesofsimilarmagnitudes(e.g.,325,425) to be lower than round prices of similar magnitudes (e.g., 325,425)tobelowerthanroundpricesofsimilarmagnitudes(e.g.,325,000). Building on evidence of greater prevalence of precision in smaller numbers and roundedness in larger numbers (Dehaene and Mehler 1992), we suggest that representativeness of digit patterns might influence magnitude judgments. We term this the "precision heuristic" in price magnitude judgments. We examine the effect of this precision heuristic on buyer's willingness to pay (WTP) in two distinct but complementary ways. First, we conduct a laboratory study to understand the psychological mechanism behind the precision heuristic. We find that people do learn to associate precision with smaller magnitudes, and that this association biases their price magnitude judgments. Additionally, we rule out alternative explanations which posit that a precise price signals a seller's low-price strategy or her unwillingness to negotiate. Based on these findings, we suggest that although the precision heuristic can lead to biased judgments, it is an ecologically valid judgment criterion. Next, using data from more than 27,000 residential real estate transactions in two separate markets, we find that buyers pay higher sale prices when list prices are more precise. This finding is consistent with the precision heuristic, suggesting that buyers perceive precise list prices to be lower, and therefore accept sale prices that are closer to the list price. These results have substantive implications for buyer and seller behaviors, and theoretical implications for the understanding of price cognition process.
We conduct two studies to test three hypotheses: (1) Competition increases a firm's customer sati... more We conduct two studies to test three hypotheses: (1) Competition increases a firm's customer satisfaction; (2) Rivals' customer satisfaction increases a firm's customer satisfaction; (3) Rivals' customer satisfaction reduces a firm's sales. First, we use store-level customer satisfaction data from a supermarket chain. Next, we consider a range of industries, using brand-level customer satisfaction ratings from the American Customer Satisfaction Index. Results from both studies provide support for the latter two hypotheses, while we only find support for the first hypothesis in the second study.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
ABSTRACT We find that driving fatalities increased significantly following the terrorist attacks ... more ABSTRACT We find that driving fatalities increased significantly following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, an event which prompted many travelers to substitute less-safe surface transportation for safer air transportation. After controlling for time trends, weather, road conditions, and other factors, we attribute an increase of 242 driving fatalities per month to additional road travel undertaken in response to 9/11. In total, our results suggest that at least 1,200 additional driving deaths are attributable to the effect of 9/11. We also provide evidence that is consistent with the 9/11 effect on road fatalities weakening over time as drivers return to flying. Our results show that the public response to terrorist threats can create unintended consequences that rival the attacks themselves in severity.
The Journal of Law and Economics, 2007
We examine the impact of two post-9/11 airport security measures—baggage screening and federali... more We examine the impact of two post-9/11 airport security measures—baggage screening and federalization of passenger screening—on demand for air travel in the United States. Exploiting the phased introduction of security measures across airports, we find that baggage screening reduced passenger volume by about 6 percent on all flights and by about 9 percent on flights departing from the nation’s 50
Research Policy, 2009
In this paper we measure the effect of Internet adoption on consumers' propensity to adopt a wide... more In this paper we measure the effect of Internet adoption on consumers' propensity to adopt a wide range of diffusing products. To do this, we utilize a rich panel of household surveys on purchases of relatively new technology products. Our results indicate that the Internet accelerates product diffusion, but with varying magnitude. In an attempt to determine the mechanisms underlying this effect, we find direct evidence that the Internet does not increase product awareness. However, we find suggestive evidence that the Internet increases adoption rates both through access to increased information about new products (via online research) and through online shopping. We also find that the magnitude of the Internet's effect is strongly tied to diffusion rates, and especially familiarity rates. This finding is consistent with Internet access having the greatest impact on the adoption of products with more developed marketing strategies (i.e., more developed information sources and online markets). Our findings indicate that the Internet helps bolster demand for products early in their diffusion process, and they suggest that improved access to information and the convenience of online shopping are likely the primary drivers of this effect. Consequently, to the extent that accelerated diffusion of new products is (on net) desirable, our findings may provide a further argument toward social promotion of Internet adoption.
Managerial and Decision Economics, 2006
Excerpt] Using data from both the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) and Fortune Magazin... more Excerpt] Using data from both the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) and Fortune Magazine's lists of Best Companies, we examine the relationship between making the "Best 100" list and customer satisfaction. Based on a subset of the Best 100 in each year from 1994 to 2002, we find strong evidence that firms on the list earn higher customer satisfaction ratings than firms not on the list. This result is stronger for firms in the service sector than for those in the manufacturing sector. Our analysis also suggests that the increase in customer satisfaction resulting from Best Company status yields about a 1.6 percent increase in return on assets.
Journal of International Business Studies, 2009
... Economica, 41(162): 176193. | Article | ISI; Chung, W., Mitchell, W., & Yeung, B. 2003. ... more ... Economica, 41(162): 176193. | Article | ISI; Chung, W., Mitchell, W., & Yeung, B. 2003. ... ABOUT THE AUTHORS. Garrick Blalock (garrick.blalock@cornell.edu) is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Applied Economics and Management at Cornell University. He earned h.
Information Economics and Policy, 2007
We examine how offering digital content affects demand for print magazines. Using a searchable we... more We examine how offering digital content affects demand for print magazines. Using a searchable website archive, we measure the digital content offered by a sample of US consumer magazines from 1996 to 2001. We find strong evidence that digital content cannibalizes print sales. ...
Ithaca, NY: Cornell University, …, 2005
... during travel.1 These additional lives lost on the road represent a cost of terrorism that is... more ... during travel.1 These additional lives lost on the road represent a cost of terrorism that is more enduring if less visible than casualties of the 9/11 attacks themselves. ... massive loss of life in the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks traumatized people throughout the nation. ...
BMJ, 2008
Objective To measure the effect of free access to the scientific literature on article downloads ... more Objective To measure the effect of free access to the scientific literature on article downloads and citations. Design Randomised controlled trial. Setting 11 journals published by the American Physiological Society. Participants 1619 research articles and reviews. Main outcome measures Article readership (measured as downloads of full text, PDFs, and abstracts) and number of unique visitors (internet protocol addresses). Citations to articles were gathered from the Institute for Scientific Information after one year. Interventions Random assignment on online publication of articles published in 11 scientific journals to open access (treatment) or subscription access (control).
Applied Economics, 2009
We show that the public's respons... more We show that the public's response to terrorist threats can have unintended consequences that rival the attacks themselves in severity. Driving fatalities increased significantly after the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks, events that prompted many travellers to substitute road transportation for safer air transportation. After controlling for time trends, weather, road conditions and other factors, we find that travellers’ response
Applied Economics, 2011
Excerpt] We test for the existence of gender bias in power relationships. Specifically, we examin... more Excerpt] We test for the existence of gender bias in power relationships. Specifically, we examine whether police officers are less likely to issue traffic tickets to men or to women during traffic stops. Whereas the conventional wisdom, which we document with surveys, is that women are less likely to receive tickets, our analysis shows otherwise. Examination of a pooled sample of traffic stops from five locations reveals no gender bias, but does show significant regional variation in the likelihood of citations. Analysis by location shows that women are more likely to receive citations in three of the five locations. Men are more likely to receive citations in the other two locations. To our knowledge, this study is the first to test for gender bias in traffic stops, and clearly refutes the conventional wisdom that police are more lenient towards women.
American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 2007
State-sponsored lotteries are a lucrative source of revenue.
W e examine two questions: Does the roundness or precision of prices bias magnitude judgments? If... more W e examine two questions: Does the roundness or precision of prices bias magnitude judgments? If so, do these biased judgments affect buyer behavior? Results from five studies suggest that buyers underestimate the magnitudes of precise prices. We term this the precision effect. The first three studies are laboratory experiments designed to test the existence of the precision effect and examine the underlying psychological processes. In Study 1, we find that precise prices are judged to be smaller than round prices of similar magnitudes. For example, participants in this experiment incorrectly judged 395,425tobesmallerthan395,425 to be smaller than 395,425tobesmallerthan395,000. In Study 2, we show that precision is more likely to affect magnitude judgments under conditions of uncertainty. Study 3 demonstrates that manipulating prior experience with the pattern of roundness and precision in numbers can moderate the precision effect. Studies 4 and 5 examine whether the precision effect influences buyers' willingness to pay for negotiated purchases (e.g., houses). In Study 4, we conduct an experiment on a nationally representative sample of homeowners to demonstrate that participants are willing to pay more for houses when the sellers use precise (e.g., 364,578)insteadofcomparableround(e.g.,364,578) instead of comparable round (e.g., 364,578)insteadofcomparableround(e.g.,365,000) prices. In Study 5, we analyze data from residential real estate transactions in two separate markets and find that buyers pay higher sale prices when list prices are more precise. These empirical results enrich our understanding of the psychological processes that underlie price magnitude judgments and have substantive implications for buyer and seller behavior.
State-sponsored lotteries are a lucrative source of revenue. Despite their low payout rates, lott... more State-sponsored lotteries are a lucrative source of revenue. Despite their low payout rates, lotteries are extremely popular, particularly among low-income citizens. State officials laud the benefits of lottery proceeds and promote the fun and excitement of participation. This entertainment value is one explanation for lottery demand by the poor: individuals with lower incomes substitute lottery play for other entertainment. Alternatively,