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Papers by David Sobek

How does a state’s level of economic development affect its conflict propensity? This question is... more How does a state’s level of economic development affect its conflict propensity? This question is particularly interesting, since a number of views offer contrasting explanations about how it could either increase or decrease international conflict. Since economic development entails an increase in productive and consumptive capacity, it is reasonable to link development to the growth of militarism and expansion-ist foreign policies (Tilly, 1975, 1985; Choucri & North, 1975). On the other hand, much attention has been paid in recent years to how economic interdepen-dence and joint democracy appear to pacify

Many scholars have argued that unequal socioeconomic distribution constitutes a threat to democra... more Many scholars have argued that unequal socioeconomic distribution constitutes a threat to democratic survival. However, the evidence in support of this claim has been contradictory. We argue that this incon-sistency derives from the literature’s assumption that income inequality will adequately reflect the conditions under which demands for radical redistribution will emerge and trigger antidemocratic elite reactions. We argue instead that when developmental context is taken into consid-eration, absolute forms of distribution, like basic needs deprivation, are better indicators of these conditions. When needs deprivation exists in the face of enhanced economic development, citizens will not only notice deprivation more readily, but also, given the greater social sur-plus, deem it more unacceptable, provoking radical demands for redis-tributive justice. This combination of development and continuing basic needs shortfalls, a condition that we refer to as regressive socio-economic dis...

Respect for human rights represents self-imposed restraints on the behavior of a government. Thes... more Respect for human rights represents self-imposed restraints on the behavior of a government. These limits signify both a domestic norm and a state that has decided to settle political disputes through nonviolent methods. When these governments interact in the international system, we suspect that their basic norms of behavior will remain and generate relatively peaceful interactions. We test this contention on pairs of all states from 1980 to 2001 and find that joint respect for human rights decreases the probability of conflict. This relationship is maintained even when one controls for the effect of democracy and its influence on the human rights record of states. The international relations literature has shown that democracies are less likely to become embroiled in military conflicts. While important, this finding generates broad policy recommendations that may be difficult to implement: transforming authoritarian regimes into democracies. Furthermore, how is this to be done pea...

Mass Communication and Society

A slew of gruesome executions by terrorist groups in 2014–2015 renewed interest in the public rel... more A slew of gruesome executions by terrorist groups in 2014–2015 renewed interest in the public relations strategies of terrorists. As a case in point, the Islamic State group’s escalating brutality reflects their efforts as a relatively nascent extremist group to ensure a high and sustained volume of media coverage, especially among Western outlets. But what characteristics of events actually prompt coverage from major U.S. news media? Using a rich data set of terrorist incidents and coverage from six major broadcast and cable U.S. networks, we model coverage of terrorist incidents as a function of event proximity from U.S. soil, target country affinity with the United States, number of total and U.S. casualties, and the characteristics of the terrorist group. Our findings largely corroborate expectations set forth by the literature on norms and routines of journalism and economics of news. When it comes to terrorism, coverage by U.S. major media outlets is largely dependent on proximity to and affinity with the United States, weapons of mass destruction, and the number of global and U.S. casualties.

Abstract will be provided by author.

Abstract will be provided by author.

Abstract will be provided by author.

Journal of Peace Research, 2005

This paper examines how economic development influences interstate conflict. Rather than theorizi... more This paper examines how economic development influences interstate conflict. Rather than theorizing a linear relationship between economic development and state behavior in militarized conflicts, this paper hypothesizes a non-linear relationship where both extreme poverty and prosperity reduce this risk. This occurs because states at an intermediate level of development have both the opportunity and willingness to pursue territorial claims, which makes them most prone to militarized interstate conflicts. The changing orientation of economies from agricultural and extractive activities eventually to service based economies alters the cost-benefit calculations concerning territorial acquisition. Developed states, more reliant on services for their economic growth are less likely to push territorial claims, decreasing their involvement in interstate conflict. Meanwhile, the poorest states, although they have more to gain through territorial expansion, have a decreased ability to pursue their objectives through military force. We examine all states between 1870 and 1992 at the monadic level of analysis. In general, the statistical analysis confirms the hypotheses. States of an intermediate level of development are most prone to initiate and participate in militarized conflicts, including those over the issue of territory and those that result in battlefield deaths. High levels of economic development also mitigate the effects of military power and population growth that increase the risk of interstate violence. This project helps explain why past studies have linked development to both war and peace, as well as to suggest possible flashpoints in the future. Finally, the results also suggest that other models in the literature theorizing linear functions for economic development and conflict are misspecified.

Journal of Peace Research, 2013

As far back as Thucydides, scholars have hypothesized that power affects the onset of conflict. D... more As far back as Thucydides, scholars have hypothesized that power affects the onset of conflict. Despite its importance, power remains a difficult concept to measure, and scholars have primarily relied on material measures that quantify the internal resources available to a state. This concentration on internal sources of power, however, excludes an important power resource available to a state: its external relations. It is reasonable to expect that when a state estimates the power of a potential opponent it looks not only at the internal resources but also at the power of states that would likely join the conflict. In this article, we develop a new measure of external power that explicitly accounts for the external sources of state power. Unlike previous studies that aggregate a state’s expected alliance contributions, our measure is based on the expected contribution of all states, allies and non-allies alike. We conduct a preliminary test of this new measure on dispute onset, and...

International Studies Quarterly, 2005

Research examining the effect of regime type on conflict has focused on the democracy/autocracy c... more Research examining the effect of regime type on conflict has focused on the democracy/autocracy continuum expounded in the political philosophies of liberal thinkers such as Kant and Schumpeter. While this concentration has yielded impressive results (democratic peace), it seems plausible that other conceptions of regime type may yield similar success. This paper examines the philosophy of Machiavelli and develops a measure of his “imperial regimes.” These states, which can either be democratic or autocratic, should exhibit an increased propensity to initiate international conflict. Testing this contention in Renaissance Italy (1250–1494) and the modern international system (1920–1992), this paper finds strong empirical support. Machiavelli's views illuminate key differences between democracies and autocracies that have been previously overlooked. Thus, it deepens rather than replaces our conception of how domestic institutions affect international conflict.

International Studies Quarterly, 2012

Page 1. Conventional Wisdom? The Effect of Nuclear Proliferation on Armed Conflict, 1945–2001 Dav... more Page 1. Conventional Wisdom? The Effect of Nuclear Proliferation on Armed Conflict, 1945–2001 David Sobek Louisiana State University Dennis M. Foster Virginia Military Institute and Samuel B. Robison Louisiana State University ...

International Interactions, 2010

Benjamin Netanyahu's come-from-behind victory over Sh... more Benjamin Netanyahu's come-from-behind victory over Shimon Peres in the Israeli national elections of May 1996, following an apparent intensification of Palestinian terrorism over the course of that spring, reminded observers of the political ramifications of terrorism. Since May 1996 was also the month in which Israel reentered Final Status negotiations with a Palestinian delegation in Taba, Egypt, the timing of

International Interactions, 2010

Benjamin Netanyahu's come-from-behind victory over Sh... more Benjamin Netanyahu's come-from-behind victory over Shimon Peres in the Israeli national elections of May 1996, following an apparent intensification of Palestinian terrorism over the course of that spring, reminded observers of the political ramifications of terrorism. Since May 1996 was also the month in which Israel reentered Final Status negotiations with a Palestinian delegation in Taba, Egypt, the timing of

Journal of Peace Research, 2004

high stakes generally make compromise difficult (Licklider, 1995). Given these challenges, what g... more high stakes generally make compromise difficult (Licklider, 1995). Given these challenges, what goes into the calculations rebels and governments use when deciding to end or continue a civil war? Recent scholarship has focused intensively on the 'greed vs. creed' question (see Collier & Hoeffler, 1999; Collier & Hoeffler, 2002a; de Soysa, 2002). These studies attempt to explain the outbreak and duration of civil wars based on political, ethnic, and economic grievances, and typically theorize from the perspective of the non-state combatants. In the past few years, attention has turned back to the role of the state in civil wars. One such line of inquiry probes the effect of

International Studies Quarterly, 2010

Skip to Main Content. ...

Journal of Peace Research, 2007

Page 1. 29 Introduction The idea that leaders attempt to manipulate the 'rally around th... more Page 1. 29 Introduction The idea that leaders attempt to manipulate the 'rally around the flag' effect to boost ailing approval has an intuitive appeal, but has not received consistent empirical support. The empirical support for the ...

British Journal of Political Science, 2013

Research on terrorism in democracies borrows from the literature on civil war and rebellion to ar... more Research on terrorism in democracies borrows from the literature on civil war and rebellion to argue that more proportional representation decreases the likelihood of terrorist violence. However, theories of broader social mobilization may be ill-suited to predicting the occurrence of terrorism. This article proposes that proportionalism's institutionalization of small minority groups as legitimate but relatively insignificant political actors leads to militancy. Analyses of the Global Terrorism Database on domestic terrorist attacks across all democracies in 1975–2007 provide broad support for this argument. The presence and greater degrees of proportionalism are significantly associated with greater levels of domestic terrorism when ethnic fractionalization within a given society increases. Moreover, domestic terrorism increases as the number of small parties represented in the legislature increases.

How does a state’s level of economic development affect its conflict propensity? This question is... more How does a state’s level of economic development affect its conflict propensity? This question is particularly interesting, since a number of views offer contrasting explanations about how it could either increase or decrease international conflict. Since economic development entails an increase in productive and consumptive capacity, it is reasonable to link development to the growth of militarism and expansion-ist foreign policies (Tilly, 1975, 1985; Choucri & North, 1975). On the other hand, much attention has been paid in recent years to how economic interdepen-dence and joint democracy appear to pacify

Many scholars have argued that unequal socioeconomic distribution constitutes a threat to democra... more Many scholars have argued that unequal socioeconomic distribution constitutes a threat to democratic survival. However, the evidence in support of this claim has been contradictory. We argue that this incon-sistency derives from the literature’s assumption that income inequality will adequately reflect the conditions under which demands for radical redistribution will emerge and trigger antidemocratic elite reactions. We argue instead that when developmental context is taken into consid-eration, absolute forms of distribution, like basic needs deprivation, are better indicators of these conditions. When needs deprivation exists in the face of enhanced economic development, citizens will not only notice deprivation more readily, but also, given the greater social sur-plus, deem it more unacceptable, provoking radical demands for redis-tributive justice. This combination of development and continuing basic needs shortfalls, a condition that we refer to as regressive socio-economic dis...

Respect for human rights represents self-imposed restraints on the behavior of a government. Thes... more Respect for human rights represents self-imposed restraints on the behavior of a government. These limits signify both a domestic norm and a state that has decided to settle political disputes through nonviolent methods. When these governments interact in the international system, we suspect that their basic norms of behavior will remain and generate relatively peaceful interactions. We test this contention on pairs of all states from 1980 to 2001 and find that joint respect for human rights decreases the probability of conflict. This relationship is maintained even when one controls for the effect of democracy and its influence on the human rights record of states. The international relations literature has shown that democracies are less likely to become embroiled in military conflicts. While important, this finding generates broad policy recommendations that may be difficult to implement: transforming authoritarian regimes into democracies. Furthermore, how is this to be done pea...

Mass Communication and Society

A slew of gruesome executions by terrorist groups in 2014–2015 renewed interest in the public rel... more A slew of gruesome executions by terrorist groups in 2014–2015 renewed interest in the public relations strategies of terrorists. As a case in point, the Islamic State group’s escalating brutality reflects their efforts as a relatively nascent extremist group to ensure a high and sustained volume of media coverage, especially among Western outlets. But what characteristics of events actually prompt coverage from major U.S. news media? Using a rich data set of terrorist incidents and coverage from six major broadcast and cable U.S. networks, we model coverage of terrorist incidents as a function of event proximity from U.S. soil, target country affinity with the United States, number of total and U.S. casualties, and the characteristics of the terrorist group. Our findings largely corroborate expectations set forth by the literature on norms and routines of journalism and economics of news. When it comes to terrorism, coverage by U.S. major media outlets is largely dependent on proximity to and affinity with the United States, weapons of mass destruction, and the number of global and U.S. casualties.

Abstract will be provided by author.

Abstract will be provided by author.

Abstract will be provided by author.

Journal of Peace Research, 2005

This paper examines how economic development influences interstate conflict. Rather than theorizi... more This paper examines how economic development influences interstate conflict. Rather than theorizing a linear relationship between economic development and state behavior in militarized conflicts, this paper hypothesizes a non-linear relationship where both extreme poverty and prosperity reduce this risk. This occurs because states at an intermediate level of development have both the opportunity and willingness to pursue territorial claims, which makes them most prone to militarized interstate conflicts. The changing orientation of economies from agricultural and extractive activities eventually to service based economies alters the cost-benefit calculations concerning territorial acquisition. Developed states, more reliant on services for their economic growth are less likely to push territorial claims, decreasing their involvement in interstate conflict. Meanwhile, the poorest states, although they have more to gain through territorial expansion, have a decreased ability to pursue their objectives through military force. We examine all states between 1870 and 1992 at the monadic level of analysis. In general, the statistical analysis confirms the hypotheses. States of an intermediate level of development are most prone to initiate and participate in militarized conflicts, including those over the issue of territory and those that result in battlefield deaths. High levels of economic development also mitigate the effects of military power and population growth that increase the risk of interstate violence. This project helps explain why past studies have linked development to both war and peace, as well as to suggest possible flashpoints in the future. Finally, the results also suggest that other models in the literature theorizing linear functions for economic development and conflict are misspecified.

Journal of Peace Research, 2013

As far back as Thucydides, scholars have hypothesized that power affects the onset of conflict. D... more As far back as Thucydides, scholars have hypothesized that power affects the onset of conflict. Despite its importance, power remains a difficult concept to measure, and scholars have primarily relied on material measures that quantify the internal resources available to a state. This concentration on internal sources of power, however, excludes an important power resource available to a state: its external relations. It is reasonable to expect that when a state estimates the power of a potential opponent it looks not only at the internal resources but also at the power of states that would likely join the conflict. In this article, we develop a new measure of external power that explicitly accounts for the external sources of state power. Unlike previous studies that aggregate a state’s expected alliance contributions, our measure is based on the expected contribution of all states, allies and non-allies alike. We conduct a preliminary test of this new measure on dispute onset, and...

International Studies Quarterly, 2005

Research examining the effect of regime type on conflict has focused on the democracy/autocracy c... more Research examining the effect of regime type on conflict has focused on the democracy/autocracy continuum expounded in the political philosophies of liberal thinkers such as Kant and Schumpeter. While this concentration has yielded impressive results (democratic peace), it seems plausible that other conceptions of regime type may yield similar success. This paper examines the philosophy of Machiavelli and develops a measure of his “imperial regimes.” These states, which can either be democratic or autocratic, should exhibit an increased propensity to initiate international conflict. Testing this contention in Renaissance Italy (1250–1494) and the modern international system (1920–1992), this paper finds strong empirical support. Machiavelli's views illuminate key differences between democracies and autocracies that have been previously overlooked. Thus, it deepens rather than replaces our conception of how domestic institutions affect international conflict.

International Studies Quarterly, 2012

Page 1. Conventional Wisdom? The Effect of Nuclear Proliferation on Armed Conflict, 1945–2001 Dav... more Page 1. Conventional Wisdom? The Effect of Nuclear Proliferation on Armed Conflict, 1945–2001 David Sobek Louisiana State University Dennis M. Foster Virginia Military Institute and Samuel B. Robison Louisiana State University ...

International Interactions, 2010

Benjamin Netanyahu's come-from-behind victory over Sh... more Benjamin Netanyahu's come-from-behind victory over Shimon Peres in the Israeli national elections of May 1996, following an apparent intensification of Palestinian terrorism over the course of that spring, reminded observers of the political ramifications of terrorism. Since May 1996 was also the month in which Israel reentered Final Status negotiations with a Palestinian delegation in Taba, Egypt, the timing of

International Interactions, 2010

Benjamin Netanyahu's come-from-behind victory over Sh... more Benjamin Netanyahu's come-from-behind victory over Shimon Peres in the Israeli national elections of May 1996, following an apparent intensification of Palestinian terrorism over the course of that spring, reminded observers of the political ramifications of terrorism. Since May 1996 was also the month in which Israel reentered Final Status negotiations with a Palestinian delegation in Taba, Egypt, the timing of

Journal of Peace Research, 2004

high stakes generally make compromise difficult (Licklider, 1995). Given these challenges, what g... more high stakes generally make compromise difficult (Licklider, 1995). Given these challenges, what goes into the calculations rebels and governments use when deciding to end or continue a civil war? Recent scholarship has focused intensively on the 'greed vs. creed' question (see Collier & Hoeffler, 1999; Collier & Hoeffler, 2002a; de Soysa, 2002). These studies attempt to explain the outbreak and duration of civil wars based on political, ethnic, and economic grievances, and typically theorize from the perspective of the non-state combatants. In the past few years, attention has turned back to the role of the state in civil wars. One such line of inquiry probes the effect of

International Studies Quarterly, 2010

Skip to Main Content. ...

Journal of Peace Research, 2007

Page 1. 29 Introduction The idea that leaders attempt to manipulate the 'rally around th... more Page 1. 29 Introduction The idea that leaders attempt to manipulate the 'rally around the flag' effect to boost ailing approval has an intuitive appeal, but has not received consistent empirical support. The empirical support for the ...

British Journal of Political Science, 2013

Research on terrorism in democracies borrows from the literature on civil war and rebellion to ar... more Research on terrorism in democracies borrows from the literature on civil war and rebellion to argue that more proportional representation decreases the likelihood of terrorist violence. However, theories of broader social mobilization may be ill-suited to predicting the occurrence of terrorism. This article proposes that proportionalism's institutionalization of small minority groups as legitimate but relatively insignificant political actors leads to militancy. Analyses of the Global Terrorism Database on domestic terrorist attacks across all democracies in 1975–2007 provide broad support for this argument. The presence and greater degrees of proportionalism are significantly associated with greater levels of domestic terrorism when ethnic fractionalization within a given society increases. Moreover, domestic terrorism increases as the number of small parties represented in the legislature increases.