Paula Delfino - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Paula Delfino

O setor elétrico brasileiro é fortemente dependente da energia hidrelétrica e a predição acurada ... more O setor elétrico brasileiro é fortemente dependente da energia hidrelétrica e a predição acurada das séries de vazões é essencial para o planejamento e gestão de risco. Recentemente, os modelos híbridos, que combinam técnicas de previsão e pré-processamento de dados, têm se destacado. Entretanto, na literatura, não há consenso sobre a superioridade de previsão destes modelos em relação aos tradicionais (puros). Este trabalho visa contribuir para literatura com a avaliação de performance de previsão e a adequabilidade de modelos puros e híbridos para séries mensais estacionárias e não estacionárias de vazões. Para isso, foram construídos modelos usando as técnicas de previsão de Redes Neurais Artificiais e ARIMA acoplados com as técnicas de pré-processamento de dados Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) e Seasonal and Trend decomposition based on Loess (STL). Como resultado, este estudo mostra para a série de Belo Monte (estacionária) os modelos puros obtiveram um melhor desempenho, já para a série de Sobradinho (não estacionária) os modelos híbridos foram os melhores.

Acta Fisiátrica, 2012

We started the preparation of this directive with the capacitation of the authors by means of the... more We started the preparation of this directive with the capacitation of the authors by means of the metodology employed by the Oxford Centre for Evidence Based Medicine, for the preparation of clinical directives by the Directives Program of the Brazilian Medical Association (Associação Médica Brasileira-AMB). Next, we had five directive preparation meetings with the AMB Program's coordinators. Articles from the MEDLINE (PubMed) databases, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, by means of the Health Virtual Library, with no time limitation. The search strategy adopted was based on (P.I.C.O.) structured questions (from the initials "Patient"; "Intervention"; "Control" and "Outcome". The resulting search syntax for non-specific neck pain was: Question 1: neck pain AND (analgesics OR paracetamol OR acetaminophen OR dipyrone OR non narcotics OR analgesics OR opioid); Question 2: neck pain AND (muscle relaxants OR ciclobenzaprine OR carisoprodol); Question 3: neck pain AND (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents); Question 4: neck pain AND (physical modalities OR hyperthermia induced OR diathermy OR ultrasonic therapy OR electric stimulation OR ultrasound OR transcutaneous electric nerve stimulation OR TENS); Question 5: neck pain AND (exercise therapy OR physical activity); Question 6: (neck pain OR myofascial pain syndromes) AND (massage OR manual therapy); Question 7: (neck pain OR myofascial pain syndromes) AND (posture OR ergonomic OR ergometry); Question 8: neck pain AND (sleep OR posture); Question 9: (neck pain OR myofascial neck pain) AND (acupuncture therapy OR trigger points; Question 10: neck pain AND education; Question 11: neck pain AND (psychology OR interdisciplinary communication OR interprofessional relations OR cognitive behaviour therapy OR work style intervention); Question 12: neck pain AND (mechanical OR manipulation); Question 13: neck pain AND (nerve blocks OR local anesthetics); Question 14: (neck pain OR myofascial pain syndrome) AND botulinum Toxin; On all searches, we used Field: All Fields, Limits: no age limits, with metodological filter for study types: narrow. In this manner, we found 1495 articles. Next, based on the abstracts, we selected the ninety-one papers related to neck pain and its treatment. We classified the scientific evidence strength of these studies according to the Oxford Centre for Evidence Based Medicine guidelines. The randomized and controlled clinical essays were submitted to critical evaluation according to the Jadad scale, 1996. Finally, we selected the forty-seven references which, due to greater scientific evidence strength, consistence, and clinical relevance, gave support to the recommendations of this directive. LEVEL OF RECOMMENDATION AND EVIDENCE: A: Strong consistency experimental or observational studies. B: Fair consistency experimental or observational studies. C: Case reports (uncontrolled studies). D: Opinion lacking critical evaluation, based on consensus, physiological studies or animal models. OBJECTIVES: Offering information about the rehabilitation of chronic non-specific neck pain.

REVISTA IUS, 2019

La ausencia de rigurosidad analítica a la hora de dise- ñar, implementar y evaluar políticas públ... more La ausencia de rigurosidad analítica a la hora de dise- ñar, implementar y evaluar políticas públicas de pre- vención y control del narcotráfico en Argentina es un obstáculo para diferenciar sus múltiples manifestacio- nes y el impacto de aquéllas. En el presente trabajo se busca analizar, a partir de la información disponible y en el marco del posicionamiento argentino en el régi- men internacional de control de drogas, las transfor- maciones que se han producido en los últimos quince años en materia de oferta y demanda de drogas suje- tas a fiscalización. Se busca advertir sobre la necesidad de contar con una comprensión del mercado ilícito de drogas y sus diferentes manifestaciones locales a la hora de diseñar e implementar políticas de prevención y control.

O setor elétrico brasileiro é fortemente dependente da energia hidrelétrica e a predição acurada ... more O setor elétrico brasileiro é fortemente dependente da energia hidrelétrica e a predição acurada das séries de vazões é essencial para o planejamento e gestão de risco. Recentemente, os modelos híbridos, que combinam técnicas de previsão e pré-processamento de dados, têm se destacado. Entretanto, na literatura, não há consenso sobre a superioridade de previsão destes modelos em relação aos tradicionais (puros). Este trabalho visa contribuir para literatura com a avaliação de performance de previsão e a adequabilidade de modelos puros e híbridos para séries mensais estacionárias e não estacionárias de vazões. Para isso, foram construídos modelos usando as técnicas de previsão de Redes Neurais Artificiais e ARIMA acoplados com as técnicas de pré-processamento de dados Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) e Seasonal and Trend decomposition based on Loess (STL). Como resultado, este estudo mostra para a série de Belo Monte (estacionária) os modelos puros obtiveram um melhor desempenho, já para a série de Sobradinho (não estacionária) os modelos híbridos foram os melhores.

Acta Fisiátrica, 2012

We started the preparation of this directive with the capacitation of the authors by means of the... more We started the preparation of this directive with the capacitation of the authors by means of the metodology employed by the Oxford Centre for Evidence Based Medicine, for the preparation of clinical directives by the Directives Program of the Brazilian Medical Association (Associação Médica Brasileira-AMB). Next, we had five directive preparation meetings with the AMB Program's coordinators. Articles from the MEDLINE (PubMed) databases, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, by means of the Health Virtual Library, with no time limitation. The search strategy adopted was based on (P.I.C.O.) structured questions (from the initials "Patient"; "Intervention"; "Control" and "Outcome". The resulting search syntax for non-specific neck pain was: Question 1: neck pain AND (analgesics OR paracetamol OR acetaminophen OR dipyrone OR non narcotics OR analgesics OR opioid); Question 2: neck pain AND (muscle relaxants OR ciclobenzaprine OR carisoprodol); Question 3: neck pain AND (non-steroidal anti-inflammatory agents); Question 4: neck pain AND (physical modalities OR hyperthermia induced OR diathermy OR ultrasonic therapy OR electric stimulation OR ultrasound OR transcutaneous electric nerve stimulation OR TENS); Question 5: neck pain AND (exercise therapy OR physical activity); Question 6: (neck pain OR myofascial pain syndromes) AND (massage OR manual therapy); Question 7: (neck pain OR myofascial pain syndromes) AND (posture OR ergonomic OR ergometry); Question 8: neck pain AND (sleep OR posture); Question 9: (neck pain OR myofascial neck pain) AND (acupuncture therapy OR trigger points; Question 10: neck pain AND education; Question 11: neck pain AND (psychology OR interdisciplinary communication OR interprofessional relations OR cognitive behaviour therapy OR work style intervention); Question 12: neck pain AND (mechanical OR manipulation); Question 13: neck pain AND (nerve blocks OR local anesthetics); Question 14: (neck pain OR myofascial pain syndrome) AND botulinum Toxin; On all searches, we used Field: All Fields, Limits: no age limits, with metodological filter for study types: narrow. In this manner, we found 1495 articles. Next, based on the abstracts, we selected the ninety-one papers related to neck pain and its treatment. We classified the scientific evidence strength of these studies according to the Oxford Centre for Evidence Based Medicine guidelines. The randomized and controlled clinical essays were submitted to critical evaluation according to the Jadad scale, 1996. Finally, we selected the forty-seven references which, due to greater scientific evidence strength, consistence, and clinical relevance, gave support to the recommendations of this directive. LEVEL OF RECOMMENDATION AND EVIDENCE: A: Strong consistency experimental or observational studies. B: Fair consistency experimental or observational studies. C: Case reports (uncontrolled studies). D: Opinion lacking critical evaluation, based on consensus, physiological studies or animal models. OBJECTIVES: Offering information about the rehabilitation of chronic non-specific neck pain.

REVISTA IUS, 2019

La ausencia de rigurosidad analítica a la hora de dise- ñar, implementar y evaluar políticas públ... more La ausencia de rigurosidad analítica a la hora de dise- ñar, implementar y evaluar políticas públicas de pre- vención y control del narcotráfico en Argentina es un obstáculo para diferenciar sus múltiples manifestacio- nes y el impacto de aquéllas. En el presente trabajo se busca analizar, a partir de la información disponible y en el marco del posicionamiento argentino en el régi- men internacional de control de drogas, las transfor- maciones que se han producido en los últimos quince años en materia de oferta y demanda de drogas suje- tas a fiscalización. Se busca advertir sobre la necesidad de contar con una comprensión del mercado ilícito de drogas y sus diferentes manifestaciones locales a la hora de diseñar e implementar políticas de prevención y control.