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Research paper thumbnail of The Effect Covid -19 Pandemic had on the Inflation on Health Products: The Case of Greece

Current Aspects in Business, Economics and Finance Vol. 3

Research paper thumbnail of The Case of Eu Withdraw: The Case of Greenland, Lessons for Brexit Under Business Cycles Spectral Analysis

The recent choice (2016) of UK withdraw from EU is not the first loss of the international organi... more The recent choice (2016) of UK withdraw from EU is not the first loss of the international organization. In a 1985 referendum, Greenland decided to secede the European Community even though remained constituted to its motherland Denmark. Comparisons with the present situation where a state member quails are obvious. The question arises has to do with the economic efficiency of this disintegration. Business cycles length can be a reliable answer to the raised question. If it grows then the effect is positive and vise versa. We deploy as reference time series checking out country's GNP growth in an annual frequency for sixty-six years (1950-2016) split to parts where breaking point is the year of changing its participation decision (1981 for Greenland respectively). The results show that Greenland did not manage to get the level of economic stability in lower frequency cycle trends compared to pre 1981 period. Similar behavior is expected for the UK.

Research paper thumbnail of Au fost afectate ciclurile economice de procesul de aderare la UE? *

Suedia și Marea Britanie) ne-am aplecat inițial asupra datelor anuale ale creșterii PIB pe cap de... more Suedia și Marea Britanie) ne-am aplecat inițial asupra datelor anuale ale creșterii PIB pe cap de locuitor pe o perioadă de 59 de ani (1950-2008). Pentru fiecare țară intervalul studiat a fost împărțit în două perioade: preaderare și postaderare. Apoi, după eliminarea zgomotelor de fundal cu ajutorul unei periodograme, am început examinarea curbelor de densitate spectrală. Rezultatele au indicat că în primii ani după aderare țările tindeau să aibă cicluri mai scurte decât în perioada precedentă. În a doua fază ciclurile deveneau egale cu cele ale perioadei pre-aderare. În final, după mai mulți ani, lungimea ciclurilor a crescut așa cum este evidențiat de curba în forma de J. Această curbă de creștere în formă de J este caracteristică țărilor care au aderat la UE, sugerând o legătură cauzală puternică între aderarea la Uniune și evoluția fluctuațiilor economice. Am verificat prin comparație cu un set de patru țări care nu sunt membre UE (Islanda, Norvegia, Elveția și Turcia) și nu am...

Research paper thumbnail of Has accession to the EU affected business cycles

Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2013

This paper undertakes to explain the relationship between EU accession and the length of business... more This paper undertakes to explain the relationship between EU accession and the length of business cycles, focusing specifically on whether participation in a multinational organization has, or has not, altered the length of the cycle. Employing a sample of nine EU countries (Austria, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the UK) we focused initially on annual data for per capita growth in GDP over a period of 59 years (1950-2008). For each country the sample was divided into two parts, one covering the period preceding accession to the EU and one is covering the accession year and succeeding years. Then, eliminating the background noise with the use of a periodogram, we proceeded to examine their spectral density plots. The results indicated that in the first years following accession, the countries tended to experience shorter cycles than they had previously. In the second phase the cycles were of the same duration as previous cycles. Finally, after a perio...

Research paper thumbnail of A Proposal for Creating Real Effective Exchange Rate Monthly Frequency Series for Albania

The present work is trying to cover the need for a Real Exchange Effective Rate in Albania. The b... more The present work is trying to cover the need for a Real Exchange Effective Rate in Albania. The bank of the country didn’t tend to keep this series which is important for competitiveness measure, encloses political risk and was crucial for the development of explanation model of recent empirical works on currency crises and it seem to work well. The results shown that monthly REER was statistically significant and it had negative effect to the possibility of currency crisis occurring. I use the PPP Real Exchange Rate for the set of the countrys’ trade partners weighted in their share to the Albanian trade balance, combined with price level (CPI) spread and nominal exchange rates for a fourteen year period in monthly frequency (January 1995- December 2008). I select a theoretical framework suitable for the examined country and I propose the methodology for further use.

Research paper thumbnail of Saving Euro by Dividing Europe in Multiple OCAs

On the aftermath of the global credit crunch was made clear that the Euro countries debt crisis s... more On the aftermath of the global credit crunch was made clear that the Euro countries debt crisis shows that the EMU is far from being an Optimal Currency Area (OCA) under its current form. The countries accepted bailouts from their counterparts and international organizations in order to prevent the Eurozone collapse spreading the crisis further. Can the breakup to multiple areas help as Tootel (1990) suggested? Three possible sets of OCA scenarios are analyzed along with the demolition scenario. The breakup of the Eurozone to two currencies consisting possible OCAs along with a second one adding all the EU members and a third one applying in small regions. The scenarios are analyzed by using eleven equally weighted optimum area criteria to make Eurozone a single or a set of sustainable OCAs. These type and extension scenarios are presented for the first time for EU countries finding possible sets of independent country groups. The results show that the asymmetries lead to the crisis...

Research paper thumbnail of Relationship between mortality and financial crisis. The case of Greece

This manuscript is presenting the facts of crisis in Greece and especially the mortality raises. ... more This manuscript is presenting the facts of crisis in Greece and especially the mortality raises. Using a set of seven variables proposed by earlier authors (Alcohol and tobacco consumption, crisis(lagged) and unemployment(lagged), Number of heart attacks and suicide attempts and health expenditure per capita) respectively. Under an exact statistic method (Robust Least Squares) for a 38-year period (1979-2016). The results show that six variables had positive relation to mortality but the effect of the two lagged variables needed one year to show. Health expenditure per capita cuts had the expected negative effect.

Research paper thumbnail of Currency crises: The case of Hungary (2008-2009)

Research paper thumbnail of Has the NAFTA Foundation Affected Business Cycles Length? An Introduction

Annals of the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University - Economics, 2013

Research paper thumbnail of Bulgaria and possible Euro Introduction

International Journal of Science and Management Studies (IJSMS)

The Present manuscript is presenting the economic history of Bulgaria as a candidate country to j... more The Present manuscript is presenting the economic history of Bulgaria as a candidate country to join the Eurozone. The difficulties have been overcome under the bond to Deutsche Mark scheme back in 1997. European Union participation in 2007, fiscal health and ERM II participation since 2020 have enchased country’s plans to be a part of Euro in 2024 despite any current members disbelief, divided public opinion and global tension.

Research paper thumbnail of Developing EWS Models for Contemporary Crises Using Extreme Value Binary Models

Handbook of Research on Financial and Banking Crisis Prediction through Early Warning Systems, 2000

Research paper thumbnail of The Argentinian Peso Crisis (2014)

Scientific Annals of the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi Economic Sciences Section, Dec 23, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of Saving Euro by Dividing Europe in Multiple OCAs

Acta Universitatis Danubius Oeconomica, 2013

Research paper thumbnail of Examining Eurozone crisis and unemployment relationship using VAR models

Scientific Annals of the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi Economic Sciences Section, Dec 1, 2013

Research paper thumbnail of Were the Crises in Eurozone Countries Predictable?

Ovidius University Annals Economic Sciences Series, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of A comparison study on currency crises in Turkey

Research paper thumbnail of Examining Eurozone Crisis and Unemployment Relationship Using Var Models

Annals of the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University - Economics, 2013

Research paper thumbnail of Were the Currency Crises in Eastern Europe (1995-2008) Predictable? An Empirical Approach

Annals of the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University - Economics, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of The Argentinian Peso Crisis (2014)

Annals of the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University - Economics, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of Comparing 1994, 2001 And 2008 Currency Crises In Turkey

This paper is comparing the currency crises in Turkey for 20 years (from 1990 till today) and to ... more This paper is comparing the currency crises in Turkey for 20 years (from 1990 till today) and to distinguish their causes divided in three periods (1990-1995), (1995-2002) and (2002-2009). My goal is to compare these incidents to find similarities and differences among them for the very first time for the country’s analysis. The forward spread is selected as a dependent variable along with a set of independent macroeconomic and social variables (balance of payments, crisis elsewhere, real effective exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves, gold price, lending rate, money, external debt and consumer price level) examining these variables for a twenty year period (January 1990- December 2009) the largest set availiable in refered literature I examined their relation to the forward spread, following the feasible least squares methodology. This innovative approach is used for the first time in the field and it has the major advantages of least squares methodology along with panel data a...

Research paper thumbnail of The Effect Covid -19 Pandemic had on the Inflation on Health Products: The Case of Greece

Current Aspects in Business, Economics and Finance Vol. 3

Research paper thumbnail of The Case of Eu Withdraw: The Case of Greenland, Lessons for Brexit Under Business Cycles Spectral Analysis

The recent choice (2016) of UK withdraw from EU is not the first loss of the international organi... more The recent choice (2016) of UK withdraw from EU is not the first loss of the international organization. In a 1985 referendum, Greenland decided to secede the European Community even though remained constituted to its motherland Denmark. Comparisons with the present situation where a state member quails are obvious. The question arises has to do with the economic efficiency of this disintegration. Business cycles length can be a reliable answer to the raised question. If it grows then the effect is positive and vise versa. We deploy as reference time series checking out country's GNP growth in an annual frequency for sixty-six years (1950-2016) split to parts where breaking point is the year of changing its participation decision (1981 for Greenland respectively). The results show that Greenland did not manage to get the level of economic stability in lower frequency cycle trends compared to pre 1981 period. Similar behavior is expected for the UK.

Research paper thumbnail of Au fost afectate ciclurile economice de procesul de aderare la UE? *

Suedia și Marea Britanie) ne-am aplecat inițial asupra datelor anuale ale creșterii PIB pe cap de... more Suedia și Marea Britanie) ne-am aplecat inițial asupra datelor anuale ale creșterii PIB pe cap de locuitor pe o perioadă de 59 de ani (1950-2008). Pentru fiecare țară intervalul studiat a fost împărțit în două perioade: preaderare și postaderare. Apoi, după eliminarea zgomotelor de fundal cu ajutorul unei periodograme, am început examinarea curbelor de densitate spectrală. Rezultatele au indicat că în primii ani după aderare țările tindeau să aibă cicluri mai scurte decât în perioada precedentă. În a doua fază ciclurile deveneau egale cu cele ale perioadei pre-aderare. În final, după mai mulți ani, lungimea ciclurilor a crescut așa cum este evidențiat de curba în forma de J. Această curbă de creștere în formă de J este caracteristică țărilor care au aderat la UE, sugerând o legătură cauzală puternică între aderarea la Uniune și evoluția fluctuațiilor economice. Am verificat prin comparație cu un set de patru țări care nu sunt membre UE (Islanda, Norvegia, Elveția și Turcia) și nu am...

Research paper thumbnail of Has accession to the EU affected business cycles

Theoretical and Applied Economics, 2013

This paper undertakes to explain the relationship between EU accession and the length of business... more This paper undertakes to explain the relationship between EU accession and the length of business cycles, focusing specifically on whether participation in a multinational organization has, or has not, altered the length of the cycle. Employing a sample of nine EU countries (Austria, Denmark, Finland, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and the UK) we focused initially on annual data for per capita growth in GDP over a period of 59 years (1950-2008). For each country the sample was divided into two parts, one covering the period preceding accession to the EU and one is covering the accession year and succeeding years. Then, eliminating the background noise with the use of a periodogram, we proceeded to examine their spectral density plots. The results indicated that in the first years following accession, the countries tended to experience shorter cycles than they had previously. In the second phase the cycles were of the same duration as previous cycles. Finally, after a perio...

Research paper thumbnail of A Proposal for Creating Real Effective Exchange Rate Monthly Frequency Series for Albania

The present work is trying to cover the need for a Real Exchange Effective Rate in Albania. The b... more The present work is trying to cover the need for a Real Exchange Effective Rate in Albania. The bank of the country didn’t tend to keep this series which is important for competitiveness measure, encloses political risk and was crucial for the development of explanation model of recent empirical works on currency crises and it seem to work well. The results shown that monthly REER was statistically significant and it had negative effect to the possibility of currency crisis occurring. I use the PPP Real Exchange Rate for the set of the countrys’ trade partners weighted in their share to the Albanian trade balance, combined with price level (CPI) spread and nominal exchange rates for a fourteen year period in monthly frequency (January 1995- December 2008). I select a theoretical framework suitable for the examined country and I propose the methodology for further use.

Research paper thumbnail of Saving Euro by Dividing Europe in Multiple OCAs

On the aftermath of the global credit crunch was made clear that the Euro countries debt crisis s... more On the aftermath of the global credit crunch was made clear that the Euro countries debt crisis shows that the EMU is far from being an Optimal Currency Area (OCA) under its current form. The countries accepted bailouts from their counterparts and international organizations in order to prevent the Eurozone collapse spreading the crisis further. Can the breakup to multiple areas help as Tootel (1990) suggested? Three possible sets of OCA scenarios are analyzed along with the demolition scenario. The breakup of the Eurozone to two currencies consisting possible OCAs along with a second one adding all the EU members and a third one applying in small regions. The scenarios are analyzed by using eleven equally weighted optimum area criteria to make Eurozone a single or a set of sustainable OCAs. These type and extension scenarios are presented for the first time for EU countries finding possible sets of independent country groups. The results show that the asymmetries lead to the crisis...

Research paper thumbnail of Relationship between mortality and financial crisis. The case of Greece

This manuscript is presenting the facts of crisis in Greece and especially the mortality raises. ... more This manuscript is presenting the facts of crisis in Greece and especially the mortality raises. Using a set of seven variables proposed by earlier authors (Alcohol and tobacco consumption, crisis(lagged) and unemployment(lagged), Number of heart attacks and suicide attempts and health expenditure per capita) respectively. Under an exact statistic method (Robust Least Squares) for a 38-year period (1979-2016). The results show that six variables had positive relation to mortality but the effect of the two lagged variables needed one year to show. Health expenditure per capita cuts had the expected negative effect.

Research paper thumbnail of Currency crises: The case of Hungary (2008-2009)

Research paper thumbnail of Has the NAFTA Foundation Affected Business Cycles Length? An Introduction

Annals of the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University - Economics, 2013

Research paper thumbnail of Bulgaria and possible Euro Introduction

International Journal of Science and Management Studies (IJSMS)

The Present manuscript is presenting the economic history of Bulgaria as a candidate country to j... more The Present manuscript is presenting the economic history of Bulgaria as a candidate country to join the Eurozone. The difficulties have been overcome under the bond to Deutsche Mark scheme back in 1997. European Union participation in 2007, fiscal health and ERM II participation since 2020 have enchased country’s plans to be a part of Euro in 2024 despite any current members disbelief, divided public opinion and global tension.

Research paper thumbnail of Developing EWS Models for Contemporary Crises Using Extreme Value Binary Models

Handbook of Research on Financial and Banking Crisis Prediction through Early Warning Systems, 2000

Research paper thumbnail of The Argentinian Peso Crisis (2014)

Scientific Annals of the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi Economic Sciences Section, Dec 23, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of Saving Euro by Dividing Europe in Multiple OCAs

Acta Universitatis Danubius Oeconomica, 2013

Research paper thumbnail of Examining Eurozone crisis and unemployment relationship using VAR models

Scientific Annals of the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University of Iasi Economic Sciences Section, Dec 1, 2013

Research paper thumbnail of Were the Crises in Eurozone Countries Predictable?

Ovidius University Annals Economic Sciences Series, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of A comparison study on currency crises in Turkey

Research paper thumbnail of Examining Eurozone Crisis and Unemployment Relationship Using Var Models

Annals of the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University - Economics, 2013

Research paper thumbnail of Were the Currency Crises in Eastern Europe (1995-2008) Predictable? An Empirical Approach

Annals of the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University - Economics, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of The Argentinian Peso Crisis (2014)

Annals of the Alexandru Ioan Cuza University - Economics, 2014

Research paper thumbnail of Comparing 1994, 2001 And 2008 Currency Crises In Turkey

This paper is comparing the currency crises in Turkey for 20 years (from 1990 till today) and to ... more This paper is comparing the currency crises in Turkey for 20 years (from 1990 till today) and to distinguish their causes divided in three periods (1990-1995), (1995-2002) and (2002-2009). My goal is to compare these incidents to find similarities and differences among them for the very first time for the country’s analysis. The forward spread is selected as a dependent variable along with a set of independent macroeconomic and social variables (balance of payments, crisis elsewhere, real effective exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves, gold price, lending rate, money, external debt and consumer price level) examining these variables for a twenty year period (January 1990- December 2009) the largest set availiable in refered literature I examined their relation to the forward spread, following the feasible least squares methodology. This innovative approach is used for the first time in the field and it has the major advantages of least squares methodology along with panel data a...