Douglas Dias - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
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Papers by Douglas Dias
International Journal of Natural Computing Research, 2012
Combining forecasts is a common practice in time series analysis. This technique involves weighin... more Combining forecasts is a common practice in time series analysis. This technique involves weighing each estimate of different models in order to minimize the error between the resulting output and the target. This work presents a novel methodology, aiming to combine forecasts using genetic programming, a metaheuristic that searches for a nonlinear combination and selection of forecasters simultaneously. To present the method, the authors made three different tests comparing with the linear forecasting combination, evaluating both in terms of RMSE and MAPE. The statistical analysis shows that the genetic programming combination outperforms the linear combination in two of the three tests evaluated.
International Journal of Natural Computing Research, 2012
Combining forecasts is a common practice in time series analysis. This technique involves weighin... more Combining forecasts is a common practice in time series analysis. This technique involves weighing each estimate of different models in order to minimize the error between the resulting output and the target. This work presents a novel methodology, aiming to combine forecasts using genetic programming, a metaheuristic that searches for a nonlinear combination and selection of forecasters simultaneously. To present the method, the authors made three different tests comparing with the linear forecasting combination, evaluating both in terms of RMSE and MAPE. The statistical analysis shows that the genetic programming combination outperforms the linear combination in two of the three tests evaluated.