Dr. Tamerat Kebede - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Dr. Tamerat Kebede

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Papers by Dr. Tamerat Kebede

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of information sharing on bullwhip effect reduction in a supply chain

Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Impact of Forecasting Methods on the Bullwhip Effect in a Supply Chain with One Distributor and Multiple Retailers

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021

In this paper, we study the impact of retailers’ forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect. We c... more In this paper, we study the impact of retailers’ forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect. We consider three forecasting methods: Moving average (MA), exponential smoothing (ES), and minimum mean squared error (MMSE). We model retailers’ demand by a first-order autoregressive process. We also assume a base-stock policy for retailers’ stock replenishment. Based on Zhang (2004), we derive expressions for the bullwhip effect for each of the forecasting methods. We considered deterministic as well as stochastic lead time. We also consider multiple independent retailers. Our findings indicate that the impact of demand correlation and lead time on bullwhip effect changes with the forecasting method. However, the patterns seem to remain unaffected by the nature of lead time and the number of retailers. We also observe MMSE to outperform MA and ES when the bullwhip effect is the main concern.

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of information sharing on bullwhip effect reduction in a supply chain

Journal of Intelligent Manufacturing, 2017

Research paper thumbnail of Impact of Forecasting Methods on the Bullwhip Effect in a Supply Chain with One Distributor and Multiple Retailers

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2021

In this paper, we study the impact of retailers’ forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect. We c... more In this paper, we study the impact of retailers’ forecasting methods on the bullwhip effect. We consider three forecasting methods: Moving average (MA), exponential smoothing (ES), and minimum mean squared error (MMSE). We model retailers’ demand by a first-order autoregressive process. We also assume a base-stock policy for retailers’ stock replenishment. Based on Zhang (2004), we derive expressions for the bullwhip effect for each of the forecasting methods. We considered deterministic as well as stochastic lead time. We also consider multiple independent retailers. Our findings indicate that the impact of demand correlation and lead time on bullwhip effect changes with the forecasting method. However, the patterns seem to remain unaffected by the nature of lead time and the number of retailers. We also observe MMSE to outperform MA and ES when the bullwhip effect is the main concern.

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