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Papers by Einars Cilinskis

Research paper thumbnail of Latvijas klimata un enerģētikas politikas mērķi, risinājumi un analīzes metodes

Research paper thumbnail of Sustainable National Policy Planning with Conflicting Goals

Research paper thumbnail of Prioritization methodology for the determination of national targets

Energy Procedia, 2017

National level planning documents have different goals, targets and indicators. Introduction of E... more National level planning documents have different goals, targets and indicators. Introduction of EU level policies require mandatory targets for climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy and others. Sometimes the goals may be contradictive and decision makers may need to prioritize them. Prioritization methodology based on multi-criteria analysis TOPSIS method is presented in this article with the analysis example on conflicting agricultural and climate goals. This methodology may be combined with other approaches including modeling.

Research paper thumbnail of Pathway and restriction in district heating systems development towards 4th generation district heating

Energy, 2018

Abstract This article analyses the indicators that describe the overall efficiency of the distric... more Abstract This article analyses the indicators that describe the overall efficiency of the district heating system and restrictions for its transition towards a 4th generation district heating system. The object of this case study is a district heating company with a modern biomass combined heat and power plant – “Fortum”, in Jelgava. Possible development scenarios for the district heating company moving towards a 4th generation district heating system were analysed. The scenarios were compared via technological, economic and bioeconomic indicators and evaluated for their restrictions for limiting long-term sustainable development. The scenarios which include production of new biomass products (bio-oil) are the most sustainable solutions that allow to increase the added value from 58 €/twood to 80 €/twood. The heat tariff was analysed in order to identify the economic feasibility of the development scenarios. Reducing tariffs by improving district heating’s operation is the only unsustainable solution for the district heating company because it reduces the company’s possibility to invest in future developments. It is concluded that bioeconomic development scenarios can support sustainability of the district heating systems. Development decisions need to be taken in due time before the consumption decreases because of energy efficiency measures.

Research paper thumbnail of Analysis of regulatory instruments promoting building energy efficiency

Energy Procedia, 2018

Abstract Building energy efficiency is important for reaching both global climate goals and Europ... more Abstract Building energy efficiency is important for reaching both global climate goals and European Union energy efficiency goals. Although building energy efficiency is a long-time government priority, renovation projects are developing at a rather slow rate and may be an obstacle for a transition to a low carbon energy system. The development of Energy Service Companies in the building renovation sector is even slower. The systems dynamic model for building renovations has been already developed in 2011. With more data on renovated buildings it is possible to improve the performance of the model, analyze the impact of support measures, including grant schemes, and propose a support intensity for future programs. It was found that grant schemes are beneficial for the energy performance measures, however, insufficient for fast implementation of large scale energy efficiency improvements.

Research paper thumbnail of Analysis of non-ETS Sector Goals Using Climate Change Indicators

Research paper thumbnail of Energy Efficiency and Energy Management Nexus

Research paper thumbnail of Use of Multi-Criteria TOPSIS Analysis to Define a Decarbonization Path in Colombia

Environmental and Climate Technologies, 2019

In the past few years, Colombia has begun to implement new laws according to new global trends, h... more In the past few years, Colombia has begun to implement new laws according to new global trends, however, carbon dioxide emissions have not decreased despite country commitments according to the Paris agreement and other international treaties. In this paper, a pathway to achieve full decarbonization of the energy system of the country has been analysed using a multi-criteria analysis tool and considering several options from previous studies, evaluating three different abatement scenarios obtained by different models. Then, a Strength, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis is conducted in order to propose a set of environmental policies that aid in seeking greater reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in sectors as agriculture, forestry, land use and transport. This set of measures is then summarized, and their abatement costs and GHG reduction potential are displayed. The outcomes show the country has great potential to exploit its renewable natural resources an...

Research paper thumbnail of Analysis of support measures for promoting energy efficiency and renewables for GHG emissions reduction in non-ETS sector

Research paper thumbnail of Impact of economical mechanisms on CO2 emissions from non-ETS district heating in Latvia using system dynamic approach

International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering

A system dynamics modeling approach was used to analyze the impact of economical mechanisms on CO... more A system dynamics modeling approach was used to analyze the impact of economical mechanisms on CO 2 emissions from the Latvian district heating system that is not covered by the European Union (EU) Emission Trading System (non-ETS). Three policy instruments were included in the system dynamic model: carbon tax, subsidies for solar technologies, and funding for energy-efficient building renovations with the aim to decrease energy consumption. Eight development scenarios were examined, taking into account different policy mixes for the transition of the heat network to the low-temperature regime. The heat tariff was used as the main indicator to determine the pace and structure of the technology change. The existing natural gas technologies and three renewable energy technologies (biomass combustion equipment, heat pump, and solar collectors with accumulation) were included in the model. Modeling results show substantial CO 2 reduction potential; however, the results are highly dependent on the applied financial instruments. It is recommended to apply a policy mix, including all the proposed policy instrumentscarbon tax, subsidies for solar technologies, and funding for energy-efficient renovation.

Research paper thumbnail of Latvijas klimata un enerģētikas politikas mērķi, risinājumi un analīzes metodes

Research paper thumbnail of Sustainable National Policy Planning with Conflicting Goals

Research paper thumbnail of Prioritization methodology for the determination of national targets

Energy Procedia, 2017

National level planning documents have different goals, targets and indicators. Introduction of E... more National level planning documents have different goals, targets and indicators. Introduction of EU level policies require mandatory targets for climate change, energy efficiency, renewable energy and others. Sometimes the goals may be contradictive and decision makers may need to prioritize them. Prioritization methodology based on multi-criteria analysis TOPSIS method is presented in this article with the analysis example on conflicting agricultural and climate goals. This methodology may be combined with other approaches including modeling.

Research paper thumbnail of Pathway and restriction in district heating systems development towards 4th generation district heating

Energy, 2018

Abstract This article analyses the indicators that describe the overall efficiency of the distric... more Abstract This article analyses the indicators that describe the overall efficiency of the district heating system and restrictions for its transition towards a 4th generation district heating system. The object of this case study is a district heating company with a modern biomass combined heat and power plant – “Fortum”, in Jelgava. Possible development scenarios for the district heating company moving towards a 4th generation district heating system were analysed. The scenarios were compared via technological, economic and bioeconomic indicators and evaluated for their restrictions for limiting long-term sustainable development. The scenarios which include production of new biomass products (bio-oil) are the most sustainable solutions that allow to increase the added value from 58 €/twood to 80 €/twood. The heat tariff was analysed in order to identify the economic feasibility of the development scenarios. Reducing tariffs by improving district heating’s operation is the only unsustainable solution for the district heating company because it reduces the company’s possibility to invest in future developments. It is concluded that bioeconomic development scenarios can support sustainability of the district heating systems. Development decisions need to be taken in due time before the consumption decreases because of energy efficiency measures.

Research paper thumbnail of Analysis of regulatory instruments promoting building energy efficiency

Energy Procedia, 2018

Abstract Building energy efficiency is important for reaching both global climate goals and Europ... more Abstract Building energy efficiency is important for reaching both global climate goals and European Union energy efficiency goals. Although building energy efficiency is a long-time government priority, renovation projects are developing at a rather slow rate and may be an obstacle for a transition to a low carbon energy system. The development of Energy Service Companies in the building renovation sector is even slower. The systems dynamic model for building renovations has been already developed in 2011. With more data on renovated buildings it is possible to improve the performance of the model, analyze the impact of support measures, including grant schemes, and propose a support intensity for future programs. It was found that grant schemes are beneficial for the energy performance measures, however, insufficient for fast implementation of large scale energy efficiency improvements.

Research paper thumbnail of Analysis of non-ETS Sector Goals Using Climate Change Indicators

Research paper thumbnail of Energy Efficiency and Energy Management Nexus

Research paper thumbnail of Use of Multi-Criteria TOPSIS Analysis to Define a Decarbonization Path in Colombia

Environmental and Climate Technologies, 2019

In the past few years, Colombia has begun to implement new laws according to new global trends, h... more In the past few years, Colombia has begun to implement new laws according to new global trends, however, carbon dioxide emissions have not decreased despite country commitments according to the Paris agreement and other international treaties. In this paper, a pathway to achieve full decarbonization of the energy system of the country has been analysed using a multi-criteria analysis tool and considering several options from previous studies, evaluating three different abatement scenarios obtained by different models. Then, a Strength, Weakness, Opportunities and Threats (SWOT) analysis is conducted in order to propose a set of environmental policies that aid in seeking greater reduction of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in sectors as agriculture, forestry, land use and transport. This set of measures is then summarized, and their abatement costs and GHG reduction potential are displayed. The outcomes show the country has great potential to exploit its renewable natural resources an...

Research paper thumbnail of Analysis of support measures for promoting energy efficiency and renewables for GHG emissions reduction in non-ETS sector

Research paper thumbnail of Impact of economical mechanisms on CO2 emissions from non-ETS district heating in Latvia using system dynamic approach

International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering

A system dynamics modeling approach was used to analyze the impact of economical mechanisms on CO... more A system dynamics modeling approach was used to analyze the impact of economical mechanisms on CO 2 emissions from the Latvian district heating system that is not covered by the European Union (EU) Emission Trading System (non-ETS). Three policy instruments were included in the system dynamic model: carbon tax, subsidies for solar technologies, and funding for energy-efficient building renovations with the aim to decrease energy consumption. Eight development scenarios were examined, taking into account different policy mixes for the transition of the heat network to the low-temperature regime. The heat tariff was used as the main indicator to determine the pace and structure of the technology change. The existing natural gas technologies and three renewable energy technologies (biomass combustion equipment, heat pump, and solar collectors with accumulation) were included in the model. Modeling results show substantial CO 2 reduction potential; however, the results are highly dependent on the applied financial instruments. It is recommended to apply a policy mix, including all the proposed policy instrumentscarbon tax, subsidies for solar technologies, and funding for energy-efficient renovation.