E. Zylberstajn - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
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Papers by E. Zylberstajn
Pesquisa e …, 2007
Este artigo simula os efeitos de reformas previdenciárias paramétricas na previdência social, e o... more Este artigo simula os efeitos de reformas previdenciárias paramétricas na previdência social, e os resultados mais importantes são: a) o valor presente da dívida atuarial é equivalente a 1,9 PIB de 2005, no cenário básico; b) a interrupção do crescimento real do piso previdenciário, a partir de 2011, reduziria a dívida atuarial; c) mudanças paramétricas poderiam reduzir a dívida atuarial para cerca de 40% a 60% dos níveis atuais; d) as medidas de maior impacto seriam a adoção da idade mínima de 65 anos para a aposentadoria dos novos trabalhadores, bem como o aumento gradual para 64 anos, para os atuais trabalhadores; e) a elevação da idade mínima para o benefício da Lei Orgânica da Assistência Social (Loas) e a redução do seu valor para 75% do piso previdenciário para as futuras concessões teriam impacto fiscal importante.
This paper solves and estimates a stochastic model of optimal inter-temporal behavior to assess h... more This paper solves and estimates a stochastic model of optimal inter-temporal behavior to assess how changes in the design of the income protection and pension systems in Brazil could affect savings rates, the share of time that individuals spend outside of the formal sector, and retirement decisions. Dynamics depend on five main parameters: preferences regarding consumption and leisure, preferences regarding formal Vs. informal work, attitudes towards risks, the rate of time preference, and the distributions of two exogenous shocks that affect movements in and out of the social security system (independently of individual decisions). The yearly household survey is used to create a pseudo panel by age-cohorts and estimate the joint distribution of model parameters based on a generalized version of the Gibbs sampler. The model does a good job in replicating the distribution of the members of the cohort across states (in or out of the social security / active or retired). Because the parameters are related to individual preferences or exogenous shocks, the joint distribution is unlikely to change when the social insurance system changes. Thus, the model is used to explore how alternative policy interventions could affect behaviors and through this channel benefit levels and fiscal costs. The results from various simulations provide three main insights: (i) the Brazilian SI system today might generate unnecessary distortions (lower savings rates, less formal employment, and more early retirement) that increase the costs of the system and might generate regressive redistribution; (ii) there are important interactions between the income protection and pension systems, which calls for joint policy analysis when considering reforms; and (iii) current distortions could be reduced by creating an actuarial link between contributions and benefits and then giving matching contributions or matching capital to individuals with limited savings capacity, which requires having individual savings accounts that can be funded or notional. JEL: J65, H55, C61, C11.
Pesquisa e …, 2007
Este artigo simula os efeitos de reformas previdenciárias paramétricas na previdência social, e o... more Este artigo simula os efeitos de reformas previdenciárias paramétricas na previdência social, e os resultados mais importantes são: a) o valor presente da dívida atuarial é equivalente a 1,9 PIB de 2005, no cenário básico; b) a interrupção do crescimento real do piso previdenciário, a partir de 2011, reduziria a dívida atuarial; c) mudanças paramétricas poderiam reduzir a dívida atuarial para cerca de 40% a 60% dos níveis atuais; d) as medidas de maior impacto seriam a adoção da idade mínima de 65 anos para a aposentadoria dos novos trabalhadores, bem como o aumento gradual para 64 anos, para os atuais trabalhadores; e) a elevação da idade mínima para o benefício da Lei Orgânica da Assistência Social (Loas) e a redução do seu valor para 75% do piso previdenciário para as futuras concessões teriam impacto fiscal importante.
This paper solves and estimates a stochastic model of optimal inter-temporal behavior to assess h... more This paper solves and estimates a stochastic model of optimal inter-temporal behavior to assess how changes in the design of the income protection and pension systems in Brazil could affect savings rates, the share of time that individuals spend outside of the formal sector, and retirement decisions. Dynamics depend on five main parameters: preferences regarding consumption and leisure, preferences regarding formal Vs. informal work, attitudes towards risks, the rate of time preference, and the distributions of two exogenous shocks that affect movements in and out of the social security system (independently of individual decisions). The yearly household survey is used to create a pseudo panel by age-cohorts and estimate the joint distribution of model parameters based on a generalized version of the Gibbs sampler. The model does a good job in replicating the distribution of the members of the cohort across states (in or out of the social security / active or retired). Because the parameters are related to individual preferences or exogenous shocks, the joint distribution is unlikely to change when the social insurance system changes. Thus, the model is used to explore how alternative policy interventions could affect behaviors and through this channel benefit levels and fiscal costs. The results from various simulations provide three main insights: (i) the Brazilian SI system today might generate unnecessary distortions (lower savings rates, less formal employment, and more early retirement) that increase the costs of the system and might generate regressive redistribution; (ii) there are important interactions between the income protection and pension systems, which calls for joint policy analysis when considering reforms; and (iii) current distortions could be reduced by creating an actuarial link between contributions and benefits and then giving matching contributions or matching capital to individuals with limited savings capacity, which requires having individual savings accounts that can be funded or notional. JEL: J65, H55, C61, C11.