Ekaterine Vashakmadze - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Ekaterine Vashakmadze

Growth in developing countries is expected to pick up from 4.8 percent in 2013 to 5.0 percent in ... more Growth in developing countries is expected to pick up from 4.8 percent in 2013 to 5.0 percent in 2014, 5.4 percent in 2015, and 5.6 percent in 2016. Stronger global growth will help most developing East Asia Pacific (EAP) countries grow at a steady pace while they adjust to tighter global financial conditions. The structure of domestic demand is undergoing adjustment as countries are trying to unwind internal imbalances and respond to external vulnerabilities. External positions have steadily improved in EAP countries, making them better prepared to manage further normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies. Foreign direct investment flows into developing EAP countries have remained robust. These developments have helped the EAP countries offset the portfolio outflows associated with the scaling back of the quantitative easing program by the United States. The authorities in some of the large economies have employed macro-prudential measures to contain the risks arising from asset price boom including in the real estate market. China's priority is to further reduce total credit growth in the economy, which is still well above nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth. There are modest fiscal consolidation efforts underway in several countries, with an emphasis on rationalizing fuel and rice subsides, although more needs to be done to rebuild policy buffers and create space for priority spending. The downside risks to the economic prospects of developing EAP are evenly balanced with opportunities for more rapid growth, including through deeper structural reforms. The report is organized in following three parts: part one presents recent developments and outlook; part two focuses on elected emerging issues; and part three presents country pages and key indicators.

Washington, DC: World Bank eBooks, Mar 25, 2020

This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, ... more This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.

China's economy is slowing, reflecting cyclical factors and longer-term structural trends. No... more China's economy is slowing, reflecting cyclical factors and longer-term structural trends. Notwithstanding the recent conclusion of the phase one agreement between China and the United States, short-term risks remain tilted to the downside amid a fragile global outlook and the lingering impact of trade tensions, especially on confidence. Adverse demographics, tepid productivity growth, and the legacies of excessive borrowing and environmental pollution will continue to weigh on growth over the medium term. If downside risks lead to a sharp reduction in growth, the authorities have policy space to act, but this needs to be done in a way that is consistent with reducing financial and corporate sector risks and achieving the desired rebalancing of the economy toward consumption and private investment. The key medium-term priorities are to deepen structural reforms to strengthen productivity growth and private investment, while accelerating rebalancing toward consumption, services, and green growth. This would require addressing market distortions and mainstreaming environmental sustainability into China's medium-term development strategy. Implementation of these priorities would boost China's long-term growth prospects; it would also help move toward a more comprehensive and lasting resolution of remaining deep-seated disagreements on global trade and investment, and public goods agenda.

Part 1. Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook The global economy grew by an estimated 3.0 percen... more Part 1. Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook The global economy grew by an estimated 3.0 percent in 2017, up from 2.4 percent in 2016. Growth in both advanced economies (2.3 percent) and emerging markets and developing economies (4.3 percent) exceeded expectations. Rapid export growth, buoyed by healthy global growth, drove Thailand's economic growth to 3.9 percent in 2017, the fastest GDP growth since 2012. Growth accelerated in the second half of the year-with robust growth of 4.3 percent in 2017Q3 and 4.0 percent in 2017Q4. A sharp acceleration in net exports accounted for 40 percent of the growth from 2016 to 2017. Export rose by 7.5 percent in 2017, the highest growth since 2011, driven by sharp increase in merchandise exports and a rebound in tourism with a 9 percent increase in tourist arrivals from 2016. While external demand drove growth, domestic demand remained sluggish: consumption grew marginally faster in 2017, while investment growth decelerated. Private consumption grew at 3.2 percent in 2017, slightly faster than in 2016 (3.1 percent), reflecting modestly rising consumer confidence and strong consumption of durables, while weakness in farm incomes and still elevated household debt weighed down consumption. Investment growth decelerated from 2.8 percent growth in 2016 to 2.1 percent in 2017. Government investment grew at 2.2 percent in 2017, significantly below the 7.4 percent growth in 2016, as the implementation of large projects suffered from approval and procurement delays. Private investment grew faster than in 2016 at 2.2 percent, with an increase in capacity utilization and acceleration in capital goods imports pointing to a potential recovery. Thailand maintained low and stable inflation, external stability and the domestic financial system remains well capitalized. Headline inflation edged higher to 0.7 percent driven by higher oil prices and slightly firmer domestic activity but remains below the target range of 1-4percent. Policy rates remained unchanged during the period at 1.5 percent. With regards to external stability, Thailand remained well placed to manage any potential volatility arising from cross-border capital flows: external debt levels to GDP remain lower than the rest of the region and most external debt is either baht denominated or hedged against currency fluctuations. The domestic financial system remained well capitalized with capital to risk-weighted assets ratio above the Bank of Thailand's minimum requirements. However, rising Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) ratios remain a concern. Thailand has made progress in reducing poverty but continued progress will depend on productivity gains. Poverty is expected to decline at a slower rate in rural areas in the medium term as agricultural prices are not expected to reach highs observed in recent years due to the global commodity cycle. Thailand's economic recovery is expected to accelerate in 2018, with growth projected at 4.1 percent, driven by external demand and private consumption. Growth is projected to be underpinned by continued strength in merchandise exports and further recovery in private consumption, signaled by improving consumer confidence and continued deleveraging. However, the growth rate of exports may slow over the medium term because of the base effect from elevated exports in 2017 and the potential impact from real exchange rate appreciation. Consumption growth will still face headwinds from slowing farm income, because of falling agricultural prices, and continued high debt burden for low income households. Government measures for low income earners and farmers, if well targeted, could potentially add mitigate the fall in disposable incomes. Key economic indices, such as the Bank of Thailand's Coincident Economic Index (CEI) and Leading Economic Index (LEI) point to an uptick in the business cycle (Figure 21) and a further pickup in economic activity going into 2018. A potential broadening of the economic recovery in 2018 will depend on progress in the implementation of critical public investment projects. A pick up in private investment is also expected in 2018, as signaled by improved business sentiment and acceleration of capital goods imports in late 2017. The extent of the private investment rebound will depend on the progress on implementing large public infrastructure projects. Government has budgeted for a 15 percent increase in capital expenditure, with a focus on efficiency measures to accelerate disbursement. The pace of disbursements will pick up, with a planned 49 percent increase in investments under the Transportation Action Plan. Projects anticipated to begin construction in 2018 include the yellow and pink lines of the sky train private-public partnership (PPP) projects, three dual track railways, and the China-Thailand high speed rail from Bangkok to Nong Khai. Even though the budget shows an ambitious scale up in disbursement, challenges remain on project execution especially around land acquisition and labor shortages. The government has focused on economic reforms aimed at raising Thailand's potential growth to achieve high income and inclusive growth as envisioned in the new 20-year national strategy. Initial steps taken are promising and bode well for reinvigorating investor confidence. Some recent highlights from the ongoing reform efforts include the passing of the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) Act, the new Competition Act, the Procurement Law and regulatory reforms to raise Thailand's 2017 Ease of Doing Business Ranking to 26. Continued reform efforts as well as institutional capacity to maintain implementation will be crucial for raising Thailand's potential growth above 4 percent.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Jul 1, 2015

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Aug 14, 2015

In June, the European Council extended EU economic sanctions against Russia for another six month... more In June, the European Council extended EU economic sanctions against Russia for another six months while Russia extended its food import ban against Western countries for a year. A fluid situation on global financial markets and yet again lower growth prospects led to oil prices losing ground in early July. Ruble depreciation pressure remained throughout June as demand for foreign currency increased while supply declined slightly due to lower oil prices. Russia’s first quarter GDP growth was revised from -1.9 to -2.2 percent−still slightly less than projected earlier−while May high frequency statistics show a deepening recession. On June 25, the government approved the main parameters for the 2016–2018 budgets, foreseeing persistent deficits and evaporating fiscal buffers despite significant expenditure cuts.

World Bank Other Operational Studies, Aug 11, 2014

KAzAKhstAn: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TRADE AND OPENNESS FOR DEVELOPMENT 9. Kazakhstan should ensure th... more KAzAKhstAn: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TRADE AND OPENNESS FOR DEVELOPMENT 9. Kazakhstan should ensure that the benefits from the Customs Union (CU) and Common Economic Space (CES) with Russia and Belarus outweigh the negative consequences, and should use the WTO accession process to drive the country's overall reform process. The Government of Kazakhstan aims to use regional integration to expand its markets and foster diversification. The government considers the CU with Belarus and Russia to be a major step in that direction. Because free trade agreements between the countries were already in effect before the CU treaty was signed, the main CU-related changes so far have been the adoption of a common external tariff (CET) and customs code and the elimination of customs clearance at internal borders. To harmonize its tariffs with those of the other CU members, Kazakhstan had to raise its barriers to trade with the rest of the world. SECOND REPORT UNDER THE STUDIES ON INTERNATIONAL/REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ix 14. The increasing concentration of the export basket is problematic to the extent that it is reflective of trade barriers and supply-side constraints. At this point in its economic development, specialization may simply imply fading of non-competitive industries, and therefore on its own is not a negative development. However, exploration of differences between successful and less successful sectors and products allows us to provide useful insights into the nature of constraints. 15. Successful exports have common characteristics that are not shared with less successful exports. The current successful non-resource exports (such as processed metals, inorganic chemicals, and frozen fish) all have short value chains, are less sensitive to transport times, depend on natural resources, and are all capital-intensive. Those products are typically not produced by small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and are generally less reliant on x EXECUTIVE SUMMARY KAzAKhstAn: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TRADE AND OPENNESS FOR DEVELOPMENT links between services and goods. This reinforces the specialization trends observed, and suggests that supply-side policies and behind-the-border impediments may be barriers to the growth of non-traditional exports. 16. Removing constraints to competitiveness will take far more than sector-specific interventions. The report makes the case that targeted investments are not a substitute for creating a broad trade-enabling environment. The report addresses the impact of non-tariff measures and poor trade facilitation in inhibiting access to inputs and access to markets. Progress in tariff policies, NTMs, and trade facilitation are key factors that will directly affect the extent of access to competitive inputs and markets and therefore long-term productivity and competitiveness of Kazakhstan. All three areas have been identified as requiring reforms to support rather than impede Kazakhstan's trade and openness. Making fast progress in NTMs and trade facilitation was identified as the critical factor that can compensate for loss of welfare associated with an increase in tariff protection from the CU (World Bank 2012) and reduce the negative impact of the CU on the long-term productivity of Kazakhstan. 17. Considerations related to the CU complicated a system of non-tariff measures already in need of reform. Kazakhstan relies extensively on concepts, legal instruments, and physical quality/standards infrastructure that date back to the Soviet period. Because they do not take into account technological developments, current technical regulations discourage innovation. Reform plans are heavily influenced by external developments. The CU added to the number of Kazakhstan's technical regulations, changed the direction of harmonization from EU standards to CU standards, made certification more difficult, and brought uncertainty to the private sector. In particular, the CU has prompted harmonization with Russian technical regulations that often do not conform to best practices. The CU has translated into another layer of technical regulations and administrative requirements that is creating confusion and suppressing both imports and exports. 19. Crucial for job creation and growth prospects are the size and efficiency of Kazakhstan's domestic services sector, especially backbone services. Although the services sector already accounts for 53 percent of Kazakhstan's GDP and 52 percent of its jobs, it is bound to increase in importance as incomes rise. In the most advanced economies services provide well over 80 percent of all jobs. High-quality and efficient intermediate service inputs, strong service links with other economies, and robust service exports are all features of a competitive services sector. While progress is being made, Kazakhstan is falling short of providing the requisite mix of ingredients to achieve these objectives.

The World Bank eBooks, Feb 9, 2022

Global growth again fell short of expectations in 2015. Growth is projected to edge up in 2016-18... more Global growth again fell short of expectations in 2015. Growth is projected to edge up in 2016-18 but the forecast is subject to substantial downside risks. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and outlook, this edition of the global economic prospects also includes analysis of key challenges and opportunities currently confronting emerging and developing countries: spillovers from a slowdown in major emerging markets; the potential macroeconomic implications of the Trans-Pacific partnership; and the links between exchange rate regimes and capital controls in emerging and developing countries. It also includes a study on vulnerabilities accumulating between commodity discovery and production in low-income countries.

World Bank policy research working paper, Mar 16, 2023

KAzAKhstAn: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TRADE AND OPENNESS FOR DEVELOPMENT 9. Kazakhstan should ensure th... more KAzAKhstAn: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TRADE AND OPENNESS FOR DEVELOPMENT 9. Kazakhstan should ensure that the benefits from the Customs Union (CU) and Common Economic Space (CES) with Russia and Belarus outweigh the negative consequences, and should use the WTO accession process to drive the country's overall reform process. The Government of Kazakhstan aims to use regional integration to expand its markets and foster diversification. The government considers the CU with Belarus and Russia to be a major step in that direction. Because free trade agreements between the countries were already in effect before the CU treaty was signed, the main CU-related changes so far have been the adoption of a common external tariff (CET) and customs code and the elimination of customs clearance at internal borders. To harmonize its tariffs with those of the other CU members, Kazakhstan had to raise its barriers to trade with the rest of the world. SECOND REPORT UNDER THE STUDIES ON INTERNATIONAL/REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ix 14. The increasing concentration of the export basket is problematic to the extent that it is reflective of trade barriers and supply-side constraints. At this point in its economic development, specialization may simply imply fading of non-competitive industries, and therefore on its own is not a negative development. However, exploration of differences between successful and less successful sectors and products allows us to provide useful insights into the nature of constraints. 15. Successful exports have common characteristics that are not shared with less successful exports. The current successful non-resource exports (such as processed metals, inorganic chemicals, and frozen fish) all have short value chains, are less sensitive to transport times, depend on natural resources, and are all capital-intensive. Those products are typically not produced by small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and are generally less reliant on x EXECUTIVE SUMMARY KAzAKhstAn: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TRADE AND OPENNESS FOR DEVELOPMENT links between services and goods. This reinforces the specialization trends observed, and suggests that supply-side policies and behind-the-border impediments may be barriers to the growth of non-traditional exports. 16. Removing constraints to competitiveness will take far more than sector-specific interventions. The report makes the case that targeted investments are not a substitute for creating a broad trade-enabling environment. The report addresses the impact of non-tariff measures and poor trade facilitation in inhibiting access to inputs and access to markets. Progress in tariff policies, NTMs, and trade facilitation are key factors that will directly affect the extent of access to competitive inputs and markets and therefore long-term productivity and competitiveness of Kazakhstan. All three areas have been identified as requiring reforms to support rather than impede Kazakhstan's trade and openness. Making fast progress in NTMs and trade facilitation was identified as the critical factor that can compensate for loss of welfare associated with an increase in tariff protection from the CU (World Bank 2012) and reduce the negative impact of the CU on the long-term productivity of Kazakhstan. 17. Considerations related to the CU complicated a system of non-tariff measures already in need of reform. Kazakhstan relies extensively on concepts, legal instruments, and physical quality/standards infrastructure that date back to the Soviet period. Because they do not take into account technological developments, current technical regulations discourage innovation. Reform plans are heavily influenced by external developments. The CU added to the number of Kazakhstan's technical regulations, changed the direction of harmonization from EU standards to CU standards, made certification more difficult, and brought uncertainty to the private sector. In particular, the CU has prompted harmonization with Russian technical regulations that often do not conform to best practices. The CU has translated into another layer of technical regulations and administrative requirements that is creating confusion and suppressing both imports and exports. 19. Crucial for job creation and growth prospects are the size and efficiency of Kazakhstan's domestic services sector, especially backbone services. Although the services sector already accounts for 53 percent of Kazakhstan's GDP and 52 percent of its jobs, it is bound to increase in importance as incomes rise. In the most advanced economies services provide well over 80 percent of all jobs. High-quality and efficient intermediate service inputs, strong service links with other economies, and robust service exports are all features of a competitive services sector. While progress is being made, Kazakhstan is falling short of providing the requisite mix of ingredients to achieve these objectives.

Policy Research Working Papers

Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) continues to be resilient and in line with previ... more Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) continues to be resilient and in line with previous expectations. Already robust domestic demand has been supported by some pickup in external demand and the gradual recovery in commodity prices. Fiscal deficits in the major regional economies widened in 2016, prompting some adjustment toward the end of the year in Indonesia and Malaysia. Monetary policies remained accommodative, and credit continued to grow rapidly in most major economies. Inflation is edging up and producer prices are rising quickly as commodity prices increase. Capital outflows intensified toward end-2016 leading to depreciation pressures, but financial markets have since recovered. The growth outlook for 2017–19 remains broadly positive across the region. China is expected to continue its gradual transition to lower, more sustainable growth. In the rest of the region, growth is projected to pick up moderately. Continued buoyancy in domestic demand, including publi...

Growth in developing countries is expected to pick up from 4.8 percent in 2013 to 5.0 percent in ... more Growth in developing countries is expected to pick up from 4.8 percent in 2013 to 5.0 percent in 2014, 5.4 percent in 2015, and 5.6 percent in 2016. Stronger global growth will help most developing East Asia Pacific (EAP) countries grow at a steady pace while they adjust to tighter global financial conditions. The structure of domestic demand is undergoing adjustment as countries are trying to unwind internal imbalances and respond to external vulnerabilities. External positions have steadily improved in EAP countries, making them better prepared to manage further normalization of monetary policy in advanced economies. Foreign direct investment flows into developing EAP countries have remained robust. These developments have helped the EAP countries offset the portfolio outflows associated with the scaling back of the quantitative easing program by the United States. The authorities in some of the large economies have employed macro-prudential measures to contain the risks arising from asset price boom including in the real estate market. China's priority is to further reduce total credit growth in the economy, which is still well above nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth. There are modest fiscal consolidation efforts underway in several countries, with an emphasis on rationalizing fuel and rice subsides, although more needs to be done to rebuild policy buffers and create space for priority spending. The downside risks to the economic prospects of developing EAP are evenly balanced with opportunities for more rapid growth, including through deeper structural reforms. The report is organized in following three parts: part one presents recent developments and outlook; part two focuses on elected emerging issues; and part three presents country pages and key indicators.

Washington, DC: World Bank eBooks, Mar 25, 2020

This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, ... more This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.

China's economy is slowing, reflecting cyclical factors and longer-term structural trends. No... more China's economy is slowing, reflecting cyclical factors and longer-term structural trends. Notwithstanding the recent conclusion of the phase one agreement between China and the United States, short-term risks remain tilted to the downside amid a fragile global outlook and the lingering impact of trade tensions, especially on confidence. Adverse demographics, tepid productivity growth, and the legacies of excessive borrowing and environmental pollution will continue to weigh on growth over the medium term. If downside risks lead to a sharp reduction in growth, the authorities have policy space to act, but this needs to be done in a way that is consistent with reducing financial and corporate sector risks and achieving the desired rebalancing of the economy toward consumption and private investment. The key medium-term priorities are to deepen structural reforms to strengthen productivity growth and private investment, while accelerating rebalancing toward consumption, services, and green growth. This would require addressing market distortions and mainstreaming environmental sustainability into China's medium-term development strategy. Implementation of these priorities would boost China's long-term growth prospects; it would also help move toward a more comprehensive and lasting resolution of remaining deep-seated disagreements on global trade and investment, and public goods agenda.

Part 1. Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook The global economy grew by an estimated 3.0 percen... more Part 1. Macroeconomic Developments and Outlook The global economy grew by an estimated 3.0 percent in 2017, up from 2.4 percent in 2016. Growth in both advanced economies (2.3 percent) and emerging markets and developing economies (4.3 percent) exceeded expectations. Rapid export growth, buoyed by healthy global growth, drove Thailand's economic growth to 3.9 percent in 2017, the fastest GDP growth since 2012. Growth accelerated in the second half of the year-with robust growth of 4.3 percent in 2017Q3 and 4.0 percent in 2017Q4. A sharp acceleration in net exports accounted for 40 percent of the growth from 2016 to 2017. Export rose by 7.5 percent in 2017, the highest growth since 2011, driven by sharp increase in merchandise exports and a rebound in tourism with a 9 percent increase in tourist arrivals from 2016. While external demand drove growth, domestic demand remained sluggish: consumption grew marginally faster in 2017, while investment growth decelerated. Private consumption grew at 3.2 percent in 2017, slightly faster than in 2016 (3.1 percent), reflecting modestly rising consumer confidence and strong consumption of durables, while weakness in farm incomes and still elevated household debt weighed down consumption. Investment growth decelerated from 2.8 percent growth in 2016 to 2.1 percent in 2017. Government investment grew at 2.2 percent in 2017, significantly below the 7.4 percent growth in 2016, as the implementation of large projects suffered from approval and procurement delays. Private investment grew faster than in 2016 at 2.2 percent, with an increase in capacity utilization and acceleration in capital goods imports pointing to a potential recovery. Thailand maintained low and stable inflation, external stability and the domestic financial system remains well capitalized. Headline inflation edged higher to 0.7 percent driven by higher oil prices and slightly firmer domestic activity but remains below the target range of 1-4percent. Policy rates remained unchanged during the period at 1.5 percent. With regards to external stability, Thailand remained well placed to manage any potential volatility arising from cross-border capital flows: external debt levels to GDP remain lower than the rest of the region and most external debt is either baht denominated or hedged against currency fluctuations. The domestic financial system remained well capitalized with capital to risk-weighted assets ratio above the Bank of Thailand's minimum requirements. However, rising Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) ratios remain a concern. Thailand has made progress in reducing poverty but continued progress will depend on productivity gains. Poverty is expected to decline at a slower rate in rural areas in the medium term as agricultural prices are not expected to reach highs observed in recent years due to the global commodity cycle. Thailand's economic recovery is expected to accelerate in 2018, with growth projected at 4.1 percent, driven by external demand and private consumption. Growth is projected to be underpinned by continued strength in merchandise exports and further recovery in private consumption, signaled by improving consumer confidence and continued deleveraging. However, the growth rate of exports may slow over the medium term because of the base effect from elevated exports in 2017 and the potential impact from real exchange rate appreciation. Consumption growth will still face headwinds from slowing farm income, because of falling agricultural prices, and continued high debt burden for low income households. Government measures for low income earners and farmers, if well targeted, could potentially add mitigate the fall in disposable incomes. Key economic indices, such as the Bank of Thailand's Coincident Economic Index (CEI) and Leading Economic Index (LEI) point to an uptick in the business cycle (Figure 21) and a further pickup in economic activity going into 2018. A potential broadening of the economic recovery in 2018 will depend on progress in the implementation of critical public investment projects. A pick up in private investment is also expected in 2018, as signaled by improved business sentiment and acceleration of capital goods imports in late 2017. The extent of the private investment rebound will depend on the progress on implementing large public infrastructure projects. Government has budgeted for a 15 percent increase in capital expenditure, with a focus on efficiency measures to accelerate disbursement. The pace of disbursements will pick up, with a planned 49 percent increase in investments under the Transportation Action Plan. Projects anticipated to begin construction in 2018 include the yellow and pink lines of the sky train private-public partnership (PPP) projects, three dual track railways, and the China-Thailand high speed rail from Bangkok to Nong Khai. Even though the budget shows an ambitious scale up in disbursement, challenges remain on project execution especially around land acquisition and labor shortages. The government has focused on economic reforms aimed at raising Thailand's potential growth to achieve high income and inclusive growth as envisioned in the new 20-year national strategy. Initial steps taken are promising and bode well for reinvigorating investor confidence. Some recent highlights from the ongoing reform efforts include the passing of the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) Act, the new Competition Act, the Procurement Law and regulatory reforms to raise Thailand's 2017 Ease of Doing Business Ranking to 26. Continued reform efforts as well as institutional capacity to maintain implementation will be crucial for raising Thailand's potential growth above 4 percent.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Jul 1, 2015

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Aug 14, 2015

In June, the European Council extended EU economic sanctions against Russia for another six month... more In June, the European Council extended EU economic sanctions against Russia for another six months while Russia extended its food import ban against Western countries for a year. A fluid situation on global financial markets and yet again lower growth prospects led to oil prices losing ground in early July. Ruble depreciation pressure remained throughout June as demand for foreign currency increased while supply declined slightly due to lower oil prices. Russia’s first quarter GDP growth was revised from -1.9 to -2.2 percent−still slightly less than projected earlier−while May high frequency statistics show a deepening recession. On June 25, the government approved the main parameters for the 2016–2018 budgets, foreseeing persistent deficits and evaporating fiscal buffers despite significant expenditure cuts.

World Bank Other Operational Studies, Aug 11, 2014

KAzAKhstAn: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TRADE AND OPENNESS FOR DEVELOPMENT 9. Kazakhstan should ensure th... more KAzAKhstAn: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TRADE AND OPENNESS FOR DEVELOPMENT 9. Kazakhstan should ensure that the benefits from the Customs Union (CU) and Common Economic Space (CES) with Russia and Belarus outweigh the negative consequences, and should use the WTO accession process to drive the country's overall reform process. The Government of Kazakhstan aims to use regional integration to expand its markets and foster diversification. The government considers the CU with Belarus and Russia to be a major step in that direction. Because free trade agreements between the countries were already in effect before the CU treaty was signed, the main CU-related changes so far have been the adoption of a common external tariff (CET) and customs code and the elimination of customs clearance at internal borders. To harmonize its tariffs with those of the other CU members, Kazakhstan had to raise its barriers to trade with the rest of the world. SECOND REPORT UNDER THE STUDIES ON INTERNATIONAL/REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ix 14. The increasing concentration of the export basket is problematic to the extent that it is reflective of trade barriers and supply-side constraints. At this point in its economic development, specialization may simply imply fading of non-competitive industries, and therefore on its own is not a negative development. However, exploration of differences between successful and less successful sectors and products allows us to provide useful insights into the nature of constraints. 15. Successful exports have common characteristics that are not shared with less successful exports. The current successful non-resource exports (such as processed metals, inorganic chemicals, and frozen fish) all have short value chains, are less sensitive to transport times, depend on natural resources, and are all capital-intensive. Those products are typically not produced by small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and are generally less reliant on x EXECUTIVE SUMMARY KAzAKhstAn: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TRADE AND OPENNESS FOR DEVELOPMENT links between services and goods. This reinforces the specialization trends observed, and suggests that supply-side policies and behind-the-border impediments may be barriers to the growth of non-traditional exports. 16. Removing constraints to competitiveness will take far more than sector-specific interventions. The report makes the case that targeted investments are not a substitute for creating a broad trade-enabling environment. The report addresses the impact of non-tariff measures and poor trade facilitation in inhibiting access to inputs and access to markets. Progress in tariff policies, NTMs, and trade facilitation are key factors that will directly affect the extent of access to competitive inputs and markets and therefore long-term productivity and competitiveness of Kazakhstan. All three areas have been identified as requiring reforms to support rather than impede Kazakhstan's trade and openness. Making fast progress in NTMs and trade facilitation was identified as the critical factor that can compensate for loss of welfare associated with an increase in tariff protection from the CU (World Bank 2012) and reduce the negative impact of the CU on the long-term productivity of Kazakhstan. 17. Considerations related to the CU complicated a system of non-tariff measures already in need of reform. Kazakhstan relies extensively on concepts, legal instruments, and physical quality/standards infrastructure that date back to the Soviet period. Because they do not take into account technological developments, current technical regulations discourage innovation. Reform plans are heavily influenced by external developments. The CU added to the number of Kazakhstan's technical regulations, changed the direction of harmonization from EU standards to CU standards, made certification more difficult, and brought uncertainty to the private sector. In particular, the CU has prompted harmonization with Russian technical regulations that often do not conform to best practices. The CU has translated into another layer of technical regulations and administrative requirements that is creating confusion and suppressing both imports and exports. 19. Crucial for job creation and growth prospects are the size and efficiency of Kazakhstan's domestic services sector, especially backbone services. Although the services sector already accounts for 53 percent of Kazakhstan's GDP and 52 percent of its jobs, it is bound to increase in importance as incomes rise. In the most advanced economies services provide well over 80 percent of all jobs. High-quality and efficient intermediate service inputs, strong service links with other economies, and robust service exports are all features of a competitive services sector. While progress is being made, Kazakhstan is falling short of providing the requisite mix of ingredients to achieve these objectives.

The World Bank eBooks, Feb 9, 2022

Global growth again fell short of expectations in 2015. Growth is projected to edge up in 2016-18... more Global growth again fell short of expectations in 2015. Growth is projected to edge up in 2016-18 but the forecast is subject to substantial downside risks. In addition to discussing global and regional economic developments and outlook, this edition of the global economic prospects also includes analysis of key challenges and opportunities currently confronting emerging and developing countries: spillovers from a slowdown in major emerging markets; the potential macroeconomic implications of the Trans-Pacific partnership; and the links between exchange rate regimes and capital controls in emerging and developing countries. It also includes a study on vulnerabilities accumulating between commodity discovery and production in low-income countries.

World Bank policy research working paper, Mar 16, 2023

KAzAKhstAn: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TRADE AND OPENNESS FOR DEVELOPMENT 9. Kazakhstan should ensure th... more KAzAKhstAn: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TRADE AND OPENNESS FOR DEVELOPMENT 9. Kazakhstan should ensure that the benefits from the Customs Union (CU) and Common Economic Space (CES) with Russia and Belarus outweigh the negative consequences, and should use the WTO accession process to drive the country's overall reform process. The Government of Kazakhstan aims to use regional integration to expand its markets and foster diversification. The government considers the CU with Belarus and Russia to be a major step in that direction. Because free trade agreements between the countries were already in effect before the CU treaty was signed, the main CU-related changes so far have been the adoption of a common external tariff (CET) and customs code and the elimination of customs clearance at internal borders. To harmonize its tariffs with those of the other CU members, Kazakhstan had to raise its barriers to trade with the rest of the world. SECOND REPORT UNDER THE STUDIES ON INTERNATIONAL/REGIONAL TRADE INTEGRATION EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ix 14. The increasing concentration of the export basket is problematic to the extent that it is reflective of trade barriers and supply-side constraints. At this point in its economic development, specialization may simply imply fading of non-competitive industries, and therefore on its own is not a negative development. However, exploration of differences between successful and less successful sectors and products allows us to provide useful insights into the nature of constraints. 15. Successful exports have common characteristics that are not shared with less successful exports. The current successful non-resource exports (such as processed metals, inorganic chemicals, and frozen fish) all have short value chains, are less sensitive to transport times, depend on natural resources, and are all capital-intensive. Those products are typically not produced by small and medium enterprises (SMEs), and are generally less reliant on x EXECUTIVE SUMMARY KAzAKhstAn: TAKING ADVANTAGE OF TRADE AND OPENNESS FOR DEVELOPMENT links between services and goods. This reinforces the specialization trends observed, and suggests that supply-side policies and behind-the-border impediments may be barriers to the growth of non-traditional exports. 16. Removing constraints to competitiveness will take far more than sector-specific interventions. The report makes the case that targeted investments are not a substitute for creating a broad trade-enabling environment. The report addresses the impact of non-tariff measures and poor trade facilitation in inhibiting access to inputs and access to markets. Progress in tariff policies, NTMs, and trade facilitation are key factors that will directly affect the extent of access to competitive inputs and markets and therefore long-term productivity and competitiveness of Kazakhstan. All three areas have been identified as requiring reforms to support rather than impede Kazakhstan's trade and openness. Making fast progress in NTMs and trade facilitation was identified as the critical factor that can compensate for loss of welfare associated with an increase in tariff protection from the CU (World Bank 2012) and reduce the negative impact of the CU on the long-term productivity of Kazakhstan. 17. Considerations related to the CU complicated a system of non-tariff measures already in need of reform. Kazakhstan relies extensively on concepts, legal instruments, and physical quality/standards infrastructure that date back to the Soviet period. Because they do not take into account technological developments, current technical regulations discourage innovation. Reform plans are heavily influenced by external developments. The CU added to the number of Kazakhstan's technical regulations, changed the direction of harmonization from EU standards to CU standards, made certification more difficult, and brought uncertainty to the private sector. In particular, the CU has prompted harmonization with Russian technical regulations that often do not conform to best practices. The CU has translated into another layer of technical regulations and administrative requirements that is creating confusion and suppressing both imports and exports. 19. Crucial for job creation and growth prospects are the size and efficiency of Kazakhstan's domestic services sector, especially backbone services. Although the services sector already accounts for 53 percent of Kazakhstan's GDP and 52 percent of its jobs, it is bound to increase in importance as incomes rise. In the most advanced economies services provide well over 80 percent of all jobs. High-quality and efficient intermediate service inputs, strong service links with other economies, and robust service exports are all features of a competitive services sector. While progress is being made, Kazakhstan is falling short of providing the requisite mix of ingredients to achieve these objectives.

Policy Research Working Papers

Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) continues to be resilient and in line with previ... more Growth in developing East Asia and Pacific (EAP) continues to be resilient and in line with previous expectations. Already robust domestic demand has been supported by some pickup in external demand and the gradual recovery in commodity prices. Fiscal deficits in the major regional economies widened in 2016, prompting some adjustment toward the end of the year in Indonesia and Malaysia. Monetary policies remained accommodative, and credit continued to grow rapidly in most major economies. Inflation is edging up and producer prices are rising quickly as commodity prices increase. Capital outflows intensified toward end-2016 leading to depreciation pressures, but financial markets have since recovered. The growth outlook for 2017–19 remains broadly positive across the region. China is expected to continue its gradual transition to lower, more sustainable growth. In the rest of the region, growth is projected to pick up moderately. Continued buoyancy in domestic demand, including publi...