Elena Angelini - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Elena Angelini

Research paper thumbnail of Ecb-Basir: A Primer on the Macroeconomic Implications of the Covid-19 Pandemic

SSRN Electronic Journal

This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). T... more This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.

Research paper thumbnail of BIS Papers No 3 81

A multi-country trend indicator for euro area inflation: computation and properties1

Research paper thumbnail of And the Euro Area 1

In 2007 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the €20 banknote. This paper can be downl... more In 2007 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the €20 banknote. This paper can be downloaded without charge from

Research paper thumbnail of Learning about Wage and Price Mark-Ups in Euro Area Countries

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013

In this paper we show that higher flexibility, measured by lower wage and price markups leads to ... more In this paper we show that higher flexibility, measured by lower wage and price markups leads to reduced inflationary pressures, increase in competitiveness, and higher output. A rational expectation and a learning version of the ECB's New Multi-Country Model are used to understand plausible dynamics of labour cost and price adjustments. In the rational expectation version of the model gains are quicker but more short-lived than in a learning environment. We argue that a rational expectation model appears appropriate to describe the abrupt wage adjustment which took place in the Baltic States. By contrast, a learning model appears better suited to capture the gradual wage adjustment of Germany during the 2000s and the one that started in Spain and Italy after the 2008-09 crisis. In fact, in view of implementation lags and the need to change institutions, in the above countries the adjustment should be expected to deliver output gains less quickly than in the Baltic States. In this paper we use the linked version of the model to evaluate the aggregate impact of the imposed shocks as well as possible spillover effects within the euro area. All in all, spillover effects are relatively small.

Research paper thumbnail of Diffusion Index-Based Inflation Forecasts for the Euro Area

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2002

Opinions expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of ... more Opinions expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. This paper, in an earlier version, was presented at a BIS workshop on Empirical Studies of Structural Changes and Inflation in October 2000. The authors are grateful to the BIS for hosting the workshop, and to the discussant of the paper, J Ihrig of the Federal Reserve Board, and attendees of the workshop for useful comments. We also greatly benefited from discussions with J Stock at various stages of this work as well as from input from colleagues at the ECB and an anonymous referee. Remaining errors are the sole responsibility of the authors.

Research paper thumbnail of A Multi-Country Trend Indicator for Euro Area Inflation: Computation and Properties

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2001

Research paper thumbnail of Mind the gap: A multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections

International Journal of Forecasting, 2019

This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). T... more This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.

Research paper thumbnail of External and Macroeconomic Adjustment in the Larger Euro-Area Countries 

International Finance, 2016

This paper presents research conducted within the Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet). The... more This paper presents research conducted within the Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet). The network is composed of economists from the European System of Central Banks (ESCB)-i.e. the 28 national central banks of the European Union (EU) and the European Central Bank-a number of international organisations (World Bank, OECD, EU Commission) universities and think-tanks, as well as a number of non-European Central Banks (Argentina and Peru) and organisations (US International Trade Commission). The objective of CompNet is to develop a more consistent analytical framework for assessing competitiveness, one which allows for a better correspondence between determinants and outcomes. The research is carried out in three workstreams: 1) Aggregate Measures of Competitiveness; 2) Firm Level; 3) Global Value Chains CompNet is chaired by Filippo di Mauro (ECB). Workstream 1 is headed by Chiara Osbat, Giovanni Lombardo (both ECB) and Konstantins Benkovskis (Bank of Latvia); workstream 2 by Antoine Berthou (Banque de France) and Paloma Lopez-Garcia (ECB); workstream 3 by João Amador (Banco de Portugal) and Frauke Skudelny (ECB). Julia Fritz (ECB) is responsible for the CompNet Secretariat. The refereeing process of CompNet papers is coordinated by a team composed of Filippo di Mauro (ECB), Konstantins Benkovskis (Bank of Latvia), João Amador (Banco de Portugal), Vincent Vicard (Banque de France) and Martina Lawless (Central Bank of Ireland). The paper is released in order to make the research of CompNet generally available, in preliminary form, to encourage comments and suggestions prior to final publication. The views expressed in the paper are the ones of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB, the ESCB, and of other organisations associated with the Network.

Research paper thumbnail of Interpolation and backdating with a large information set

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2006

Non-technical summary 1 Introduction 2 The Framework 3 Estimators and Optimality Results 4 Simula... more Non-technical summary 1 Introduction 2 The Framework 3 Estimators and Optimality Results 4 Simulation Experiments 4.1 Practical Implementation 4.2 The experimental design 4.3 Results 5 Applications 6 Using the interpolated data 7 Conclusions References Tables Data Appendix European Central Bank Working Paper Series

Research paper thumbnail of The Italian block of the ESCB multi-country model

ECB Working Paper No. …, 2006

In 2006 all ECB publications will feature a motif taken from the €5 banknote.

Research paper thumbnail of Econometric analyses with backdated data: Unified Germany and the euro area

Economic Modelling, 2011

In 2007 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the €20 banknote.

Research paper thumbnail of Introducing ECB-Base: The Blueprint of the New ECB Semi-Structural Model for the Euro Area

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). T... more This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.

Research paper thumbnail of The French Block of the Escb Multi-Country Model

Social Science Research Network, 2005

Non-technical summary 1. Introduction 2. Theoretical background 2.1 Supply side 2.1.1 The firm's ... more Non-technical summary 1. Introduction 2. Theoretical background 2.1 Supply side 2.1.1 The firm's programme 2.1.2 Phillips curve and NAIRU 2.1.3 Calibration of the Supply Side Parameters 2.1.4 Solving the model 2.

Research paper thumbnail of Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model

OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2010

In 2008 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the 10 banknote.

Research paper thumbnail of Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth

This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of cu... more This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now-casting) in the euro area. We compare traditional methods used at institutions with a new method proposed by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2005). The method consists in bridging quarterly GDP with monthly data via a regression on factors extracted from a large panel of monthly series with different publication lags. We show that bridging via factors produces more accurate estimates than traditional bridge equations. We also show that survey data and other 'soft' information are valuable for now-casting.

Research paper thumbnail of Ecb-Basir: A Primer on the Macroeconomic Implications of the Covid-19 Pandemic

SSRN Electronic Journal

This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). T... more This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.

Research paper thumbnail of BIS Papers No 3 81

A multi-country trend indicator for euro area inflation: computation and properties1

Research paper thumbnail of And the Euro Area 1

In 2007 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the €20 banknote. This paper can be downl... more In 2007 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the €20 banknote. This paper can be downloaded without charge from

Research paper thumbnail of Learning about Wage and Price Mark-Ups in Euro Area Countries

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2013

In this paper we show that higher flexibility, measured by lower wage and price markups leads to ... more In this paper we show that higher flexibility, measured by lower wage and price markups leads to reduced inflationary pressures, increase in competitiveness, and higher output. A rational expectation and a learning version of the ECB's New Multi-Country Model are used to understand plausible dynamics of labour cost and price adjustments. In the rational expectation version of the model gains are quicker but more short-lived than in a learning environment. We argue that a rational expectation model appears appropriate to describe the abrupt wage adjustment which took place in the Baltic States. By contrast, a learning model appears better suited to capture the gradual wage adjustment of Germany during the 2000s and the one that started in Spain and Italy after the 2008-09 crisis. In fact, in view of implementation lags and the need to change institutions, in the above countries the adjustment should be expected to deliver output gains less quickly than in the Baltic States. In this paper we use the linked version of the model to evaluate the aggregate impact of the imposed shocks as well as possible spillover effects within the euro area. All in all, spillover effects are relatively small.

Research paper thumbnail of Diffusion Index-Based Inflation Forecasts for the Euro Area

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2002

Opinions expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of ... more Opinions expressed in the paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB. This paper, in an earlier version, was presented at a BIS workshop on Empirical Studies of Structural Changes and Inflation in October 2000. The authors are grateful to the BIS for hosting the workshop, and to the discussant of the paper, J Ihrig of the Federal Reserve Board, and attendees of the workshop for useful comments. We also greatly benefited from discussions with J Stock at various stages of this work as well as from input from colleagues at the ECB and an anonymous referee. Remaining errors are the sole responsibility of the authors.

Research paper thumbnail of A Multi-Country Trend Indicator for Euro Area Inflation: Computation and Properties

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2001

Research paper thumbnail of Mind the gap: A multi-country BVAR benchmark for the Eurosystem projections

International Journal of Forecasting, 2019

This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). T... more This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.

Research paper thumbnail of External and Macroeconomic Adjustment in the Larger Euro-Area Countries 

International Finance, 2016

This paper presents research conducted within the Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet). The... more This paper presents research conducted within the Competitiveness Research Network (CompNet). The network is composed of economists from the European System of Central Banks (ESCB)-i.e. the 28 national central banks of the European Union (EU) and the European Central Bank-a number of international organisations (World Bank, OECD, EU Commission) universities and think-tanks, as well as a number of non-European Central Banks (Argentina and Peru) and organisations (US International Trade Commission). The objective of CompNet is to develop a more consistent analytical framework for assessing competitiveness, one which allows for a better correspondence between determinants and outcomes. The research is carried out in three workstreams: 1) Aggregate Measures of Competitiveness; 2) Firm Level; 3) Global Value Chains CompNet is chaired by Filippo di Mauro (ECB). Workstream 1 is headed by Chiara Osbat, Giovanni Lombardo (both ECB) and Konstantins Benkovskis (Bank of Latvia); workstream 2 by Antoine Berthou (Banque de France) and Paloma Lopez-Garcia (ECB); workstream 3 by João Amador (Banco de Portugal) and Frauke Skudelny (ECB). Julia Fritz (ECB) is responsible for the CompNet Secretariat. The refereeing process of CompNet papers is coordinated by a team composed of Filippo di Mauro (ECB), Konstantins Benkovskis (Bank of Latvia), João Amador (Banco de Portugal), Vincent Vicard (Banque de France) and Martina Lawless (Central Bank of Ireland). The paper is released in order to make the research of CompNet generally available, in preliminary form, to encourage comments and suggestions prior to final publication. The views expressed in the paper are the ones of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB, the ESCB, and of other organisations associated with the Network.

Research paper thumbnail of Interpolation and backdating with a large information set

Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2006

Non-technical summary 1 Introduction 2 The Framework 3 Estimators and Optimality Results 4 Simula... more Non-technical summary 1 Introduction 2 The Framework 3 Estimators and Optimality Results 4 Simulation Experiments 4.1 Practical Implementation 4.2 The experimental design 4.3 Results 5 Applications 6 Using the interpolated data 7 Conclusions References Tables Data Appendix European Central Bank Working Paper Series

Research paper thumbnail of The Italian block of the ESCB multi-country model

ECB Working Paper No. …, 2006

In 2006 all ECB publications will feature a motif taken from the €5 banknote.

Research paper thumbnail of Econometric analyses with backdated data: Unified Germany and the euro area

Economic Modelling, 2011

In 2007 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the €20 banknote.

Research paper thumbnail of Introducing ECB-Base: The Blueprint of the New ECB Semi-Structural Model for the Euro Area

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2019

This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). T... more This paper should not be reported as representing the views of the European Central Bank (ECB). The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.

Research paper thumbnail of The French Block of the Escb Multi-Country Model

Social Science Research Network, 2005

Non-technical summary 1. Introduction 2. Theoretical background 2.1 Supply side 2.1.1 The firm's ... more Non-technical summary 1. Introduction 2. Theoretical background 2.1 Supply side 2.1.1 The firm's programme 2.1.2 Phillips curve and NAIRU 2.1.3 Calibration of the Supply Side Parameters 2.1.4 Solving the model 2.

Research paper thumbnail of Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model

OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, 2010

In 2008 all ECB publications feature a motif taken from the 10 banknote.

Research paper thumbnail of Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth

This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of cu... more This paper evaluates models that exploit timely monthly releases to compute early estimates of current quarter GDP (now-casting) in the euro area. We compare traditional methods used at institutions with a new method proposed by Giannone, Reichlin, and Small (2005). The method consists in bridging quarterly GDP with monthly data via a regression on factors extracted from a large panel of monthly series with different publication lags. We show that bridging via factors produces more accurate estimates than traditional bridge equations. We also show that survey data and other 'soft' information are valuable for now-casting.