Elenio Avolio - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Elenio Avolio

Research paper thumbnail of Surface high-resolution temperature forecast in southern Italy

Advances in Science and Research, 2011

Since June 2008, 1-h temperature forecasts for the Calabria region (Southern Italy) are issued at... more Since June 2008, 1-h temperature forecasts for the Calabria region (Southern Italy) are issued at 2.5 km horizontal resolution at CRATI/ISAC-CNR. Forecasts are available online at http://meteo.crati.it/previsioni.html (every 6-h). This paper shows the forecast performance out to three days for one climatological year (from 1 December 2008 to 30 November 2009, 365 run) for minimum, mean and maximum temperature. The

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Research paper thumbnail of Surface high-resolution temperature forecast in southern Italy

Since June 2008, 1-h temperature forecasts for the Calabria region (Southern Italy) are issued at... more Since June 2008, 1-h temperature forecasts for the Calabria region (Southern Italy) are issued at 2.5 km horizontal resolution at CRATI/ISAC-CNR. Forecasts are available online at http://meteo.crati.it/previsioni.html (every 6-h). This paper shows the forecast performance out to three days for one climatological year (from 1 December 2008 to 30 November 2009, 365 run) for minimum, mean and maximum temperature. The forecast is evaluated against gridded analyses at the same horizontal resolution. Gridded analysis is based on Optimal Interpolation (OI) and uses a de-trending technique for computing the background field. Observations from 87 thermometers are used in the analysis system. In this paper cumulative statistics are shown to quantify forecast errors out to three days.

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Research paper thumbnail of Mesoscale analysis of minimum, mean and maximum temperatures in Calabria, southern Italy

Increased computing power coupled with greater access to real-time asynoptic data is paving the w... more Increased computing power coupled with greater access to real-time asynoptic data is paving the way toward a generation of high-resolution (i.e., on the order of 10 km or less) operational mesoscale analyses and forecast systems. Data analysis is a potentially cost-effective means for incorporating and displaying vast amounts of data and can be used in various capacities including the evaluation of observing strategies such as the representative siting of surface stations, the investigation of sampling issues, gauging the value of an observing system, nowcasting, model initialization, and better defining local climatic features. At CRATI/ISAC-CNR (www.crati.it), asynoptic measurements of minimum, mean and maximum temperature are available for Calabria, southern Italy, since 2008. Moreover, high horizontal resolution (2.5 km) temperature forecasts are issued daily for the same region for the following four days. The first-day temperature forecast and measurements from 82 thermometers...

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Research paper thumbnail of Calabria Daily Rainfall Trends over 1970-2006

Climate change could modify the hydrological cycle of the Mediterranean Basin, resulting in a red... more Climate change could modify the hydrological cycle of the Mediterranean Basin, resulting in a reduction of water in the area. In particular, the Italian peninsula shows a negative rainfall trend and prolonged periods of dryness, as that of 1988-1990, could occur in the future. To verify if a change in the hydrological cycle is already detectable in the Calabria region,in

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Research paper thumbnail of Preliminary Meteorological Results of a Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation Technique in Southern Italy

Atmospheric and Climate Sciences

A four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) scheme based on a Newtonian relaxation (or “nudging”)... more A four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) scheme based on a Newtonian relaxation (or “nudging”) was tested using observational asynoptic data collected at a coastal site in the Central Mediterranean peninsula of Calabria, southern Italy. The study is referred to an experimental campaign carried out in summer 2008. For this period a wind profiler, a sodar and two surface meteorological stations were considered. The collected measurements were used for the FDDA scheme, and the technique was incorporated into a tailored version of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). All instruments are installed and operated routinely at the experimental field of the CRATI-ISAC/CNR located at 600 m from the Tyrrhenian coastline. Several simulations were performed, and the results show that the assimilation of wind and/or temperature data, both throughout the simulation time (continuous FDDA) and for a 12 h time window (forecasting configuration), produces improvements of the model perfor...

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Research paper thumbnail of Verification of surface temperature forecast in southern Italy

Operational gridded temperature forecast is issued for Calabria since January 2007 at CRATI Scrl ... more Operational gridded temperature forecast is issued for Calabria since January 2007 at CRATI Scrl in cooperation with ISAC-CNR. The forecast is based on the output of the RAMS model at 6 km horizontal resolution and is issued for the following 4 days. Forecast quality and skill are determined relative to the Regional Meteorological Network which consists of more than 60 thermometers distributed, rather uniformly, over the Region. Measurements available are daily minimum, medium and maximum temperatures and verification refers to these parameters. Cumulative statistics are used to reduce the dimensionality of the forecast verification. In particular, BIAS, RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and MAE (Mean Absolute Error) are shown for each of the 4-day forecast. Skills are also presented as a function of the season. The orographic complexity of the country is clearly reflected by the cumulative scores. Worst statistics are realized across northwest Calabria, where the resolution of the mode...

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Research paper thumbnail of The seasonal characteristics of the breeze circulation at a coastal Mediterranean site in South Italy

Advances in Science and Research, 2010

We present a study on the characteristics of the sea breeze flow at a coastal site located in the... more We present a study on the characteristics of the sea breeze flow at a coastal site located in the centre of the Mediterranean basin at the southern tip of Italy. This study is finalized to add new data on breeze circulations over a narrow peninsula and present a unique experimental coastal site at about 600 m from the coastline in a flat open area at the foot of a mountain chain located in a region of complex orography. We study the seasonal behaviour of the sea-land breeze circulation by analysing two years of hourly data of wind speed and direction, temperature, radiation and relative humidity from a surface meteorological station, eighteen-months data from a wind profiler, and two-year data from the ECMWF analysis. Results show that breezes dominate the local circulation and play a major role for the local climate. They are modulated by the season, through the sea-land temperature difference and the large-scale flow. The large-scale forcing acts in phase with the diurnal breeze a...

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Research paper thumbnail of Verification of a high-resolution forecasting system of surface minimum, mean and maximum temperature in Calabria for summer 2008

Gridded high horizontal resolution (2.5 km) forecasts of minimum, mean and maximum temperature ar... more Gridded high horizontal resolution (2.5 km) forecasts of minimum, mean and maximum temperature are evaluated against gridded analyses at the same horizontal resolution for Calabria, southern Italy. Temperature forecasts are issued at CRATI/ISAC-CNR (meteo.crati.it/previsioni.html) since 2005 by the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) model and, starting from June 2008, the horizontal resolution was enhanced to 2.5 km. Forecast skill and accuracy are determined out to four days for the 2008 summer season (from 6 June to 30 September). Gridded analysis is based on Optimal Interpolation (OI) and uses RAMS first day forecast for minimum, mean and maximum temperatures as background field. Observations from 87 thermometers of the Centro Funzionale - ARPACAL network are used in the analysis system. Cumulative measure oriented statistics are used to quantify forecast errors out to four days. Results show that maximum temperature has the largest root men square error (RMSE), while mi...

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Research paper thumbnail of Climatology of the sea breeze and its micro-scale structure at a coastal Mediterranean site

We present a study on the characteristics and importance of the sea breeze flow at a coastal site... more We present a study on the characteristics and importance of the sea breeze flow at a coastal site located at the west coast of the peninsular Calabria region, the southern tip of Italy, in the centre of the Mediterranean basin. Modeling the adjustment of the marine air flow inland from the coastal discontinuity in meso-scale models is still a challenge

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Research paper thumbnail of Testing the data assimilation technique for short-term wind forecast in the PBL: a case study

ABSTRACT In this contribution we show the results of using a data assimilation technique to impro... more ABSTRACT In this contribution we show the results of using a data assimilation technique to improve the short-term wind forecast at a site in northern Europe. The assimilation technique is a simple four-dimensional nudging and, for this purpose, we set-up a version of the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System. The nudging technique consists of adding an extra-tendency term, to the prognostic equations of the zonal and meridional wind components, which forces the variable toward the observations. dφm- (φobs -φm-) dt = τ f(r) (1) where φmis model variable (zonal or meridional wind component), φobs is the observation, τ is relaxation time scale (900 s), f(r) is a Gaussian function f(r) = e0-(r/r)Λ2 , and r0=50 km. The method was applied in Denmark where suitable observations were available at the Danish National Test Station for Large Wind Turbines, located at Høvsøre (Western Jutland, Denmark), and refer to the measurements of vertical wind profiles; the instrument is the WINDCUBE Doppler LIDAR. Data were available every 10 minutes at the following levels: 40 m, 60 m, 80 m, 100 m, 116 m, 130 m, 160 m, 200 m, 250 m and 300 m. The data represent the average of the measurement for the previous 10 minutes. Only data available at the 00 minutes of each hour were considered in this study. The RAMS model is set-up with four nested grids. The fourth grid has 1 km horizontal resolution and is centred over the site. Model levels do not coincide with the measurement levels, and, to assimilate and to verify the forecast, the observations were linearly interpolated to the model levels. The physical configuration of the model is the one adopted for operational forecast over the Calabria Region in South Italy. In order to show the potential impact of the nudging technique, we run the model in two different configurations: (a) a simple forecast and (b) an analysis-forecast run. The runs duration is twenty-four hours for both configurations. For each configuration, simulations were performed for a one-month period from 21 April 2010 to 20 May 2010 (one simulation per day, starting at 12 UTC). In the simple forecast, RAMS uses the ECMWF (European Centre For Medium Weather Range Forecast) gridded analysis and forecast data as initial and dynamic boundary conditions available every 6 hours at 0.25 degrees horizontal resolution. In the analysis-forecast run, in addition to the ECMWF initial and boundary conditions, measurements at three-hour time interval are nudged into the model for the first 12 h of simulation. For the second half of the period, the model is driven only by the ECMWF forecast, as for the simple forecast run. To compare the simple forecast and the analysis-forecast runs, we computed the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the Root Means Square Error (RMSE) for one, three, and six hours following the end of the nudging time, i.e. after the first 12 h of simulation. The method was verified we used hourly values at the 00 minutes. So, for each day, one, three, and six model-observation pairs are available for the one, three, and six hours forecast verification. In this work, we show the results of those statistics. There are days in which the forecast is improved by the nudging technique and days in which the nudging technique does not improve or even worsen the forecast. Work is in progress to characterise each day in terms of synoptical versus local situation in order to associate errors at each run at all heights. Further, we aim to repeat the analyses for very-short term forecasts (up to 1 h).

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Research paper thumbnail of Detection of pollutant sources in the atmosphere with Lidar/Dial techniques: Results of an experimental campaign in the south of Italy

ABSTRACT In the last years, surveying large regions of the atmosphere in an automatic way, for ea... more ABSTRACT In the last years, surveying large regions of the atmosphere in an automatic way, for early detection of pollutant sources in urban and industrial areas, has become a strategic objective of various public health organizations. The Lidar/Dial technique has become a well-established laser remote sensing method for atmosphere monitoring. It is often used to probe almost any level of the atmosphere and to acquire information necessary to validate theoretical models about different topics of atmospheric physics. It can also be deployed for environment surveying by monitoring particles, aerosols and molecules. For these reasons, an experimental campaign for evaluating the performances of a Lidar/Dial system in detecting pollutants (particulate and/or chemical compounds) has been carried out in an industrial area in the south of Italy. In this work, a homemade Lidar/Dial system (developed and built by the authors) and the results of the experimental campaign will be presented and discussed.

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Research paper thumbnail of On the assimilation of TOVS data: a case study

actif-ec.net

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Research paper thumbnail of Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy)

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2012

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Research paper thumbnail of Application of the LEPS technique for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) in Southern Italy: a preliminary study

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2006

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Research paper thumbnail of <i>Brief communication</i> "Calabria daily rainfall from 1970 to 2006

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 2010

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Research paper thumbnail of Numerical analysis of an intense rainstorm occurred in southern Italy

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 2008

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Research paper thumbnail of Atmospheric patterns for heavy rain events in Calabria

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 2008

This study investigates the atmospheric pattern circulations associated with heavy rainfall (HR) ... more This study investigates the atmospheric pattern circulations associated with heavy rainfall (HR) days in Calabria, southern Italy, and contributes to the understanding of the dynamical mechanisms that produce those events. Heavy rainfall days are extracted from the raingauge database of the &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;quot;Protezione Civile Regionale&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;quot;, which has more than a hundred pluviometric stations for the period 1999 2007 (eight years). To

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Research paper thumbnail of Potential shifts in olive flowering according to climate variations in Southern Italy

Meteorological Applications, 2013

ABSTRACT Phenological investigations that adopt aerobiological monitoring methodologies are frequ... more ABSTRACT Phenological investigations that adopt aerobiological monitoring methodologies are frequently used for species that rely on the wind for pollen grain dispersion, such as the olive in the Mediterranean basin. The present study of olive flowering dates was carried out in the Calabria region (southern Italy). These were calculated on the basis of a phenological study of pollen levels in the atmosphere in three typical olive-growing areas over an 11 year study period (1999–2009). This phenological method provides olive flowering maps that are based on temperatures (as the growing degree days: GDDs), which are highly correlated with the release of the pollen grains. According to the model developed, the average GDDs corresponding to the flowering dates were calculated for the baseline period of 1981–2000. Moreover, with the use of meteorological data derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios, the future olive flowering dates are estimated for the 20 year period from 2081 to 2100. The close relationships between the spring temperature trends and the reproductive phenological phases in the olive are highly sensitive to climatic change, which has implications in terms of potential latitude and altitude shifts in the olive cultivation areas. In some cultivation areas in southern Italy, the present particular combination of microclimate, soil status and level of erosion is considered as limiting to regular vegetative plant development. However, the use of olive cultivars that are specifically adapted to extremely stressful environments, in terms of high temperatures and water deficit, might represent the main solution for the mitigation of the consequences of climatic change.

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Research paper thumbnail of Correlation between large-scale atmospheric fields and the olive pollen season in Central Italy

International Journal of Biometeorology, 2008

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Research paper thumbnail of On the Assimilation of Water Vapour LIDAR Measurements: a Case Study

22nd Internation …, 2004

... 1&#x27;2~, Livio Casella~1~, Stefano Federico~2~, Teresa Lo Feudo~2~, Pasquale Gaudio~1~,... more ... 1&#x27;2~, Livio Casella~1~, Stefano Federico~2~, Teresa Lo Feudo~2~, Pasquale Gaudio~1~, Sergio Martellucci~1~, Maria Richetta~1 ... In addition, orographic uplift is overestimated over the Sila mountain and precipitation maximum is mislocated, even if a secondary maximum is ...

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Research paper thumbnail of Surface high-resolution temperature forecast in southern Italy

Advances in Science and Research, 2011

Since June 2008, 1-h temperature forecasts for the Calabria region (Southern Italy) are issued at... more Since June 2008, 1-h temperature forecasts for the Calabria region (Southern Italy) are issued at 2.5 km horizontal resolution at CRATI/ISAC-CNR. Forecasts are available online at http://meteo.crati.it/previsioni.html (every 6-h). This paper shows the forecast performance out to three days for one climatological year (from 1 December 2008 to 30 November 2009, 365 run) for minimum, mean and maximum temperature. The

Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact

Research paper thumbnail of Surface high-resolution temperature forecast in southern Italy

Since June 2008, 1-h temperature forecasts for the Calabria region (Southern Italy) are issued at... more Since June 2008, 1-h temperature forecasts for the Calabria region (Southern Italy) are issued at 2.5 km horizontal resolution at CRATI/ISAC-CNR. Forecasts are available online at http://meteo.crati.it/previsioni.html (every 6-h). This paper shows the forecast performance out to three days for one climatological year (from 1 December 2008 to 30 November 2009, 365 run) for minimum, mean and maximum temperature. The forecast is evaluated against gridded analyses at the same horizontal resolution. Gridded analysis is based on Optimal Interpolation (OI) and uses a de-trending technique for computing the background field. Observations from 87 thermometers are used in the analysis system. In this paper cumulative statistics are shown to quantify forecast errors out to three days.

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Research paper thumbnail of Mesoscale analysis of minimum, mean and maximum temperatures in Calabria, southern Italy

Increased computing power coupled with greater access to real-time asynoptic data is paving the w... more Increased computing power coupled with greater access to real-time asynoptic data is paving the way toward a generation of high-resolution (i.e., on the order of 10 km or less) operational mesoscale analyses and forecast systems. Data analysis is a potentially cost-effective means for incorporating and displaying vast amounts of data and can be used in various capacities including the evaluation of observing strategies such as the representative siting of surface stations, the investigation of sampling issues, gauging the value of an observing system, nowcasting, model initialization, and better defining local climatic features. At CRATI/ISAC-CNR (www.crati.it), asynoptic measurements of minimum, mean and maximum temperature are available for Calabria, southern Italy, since 2008. Moreover, high horizontal resolution (2.5 km) temperature forecasts are issued daily for the same region for the following four days. The first-day temperature forecast and measurements from 82 thermometers...

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Research paper thumbnail of Calabria Daily Rainfall Trends over 1970-2006

Climate change could modify the hydrological cycle of the Mediterranean Basin, resulting in a red... more Climate change could modify the hydrological cycle of the Mediterranean Basin, resulting in a reduction of water in the area. In particular, the Italian peninsula shows a negative rainfall trend and prolonged periods of dryness, as that of 1988-1990, could occur in the future. To verify if a change in the hydrological cycle is already detectable in the Calabria region,in

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Research paper thumbnail of Preliminary Meteorological Results of a Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation Technique in Southern Italy

Atmospheric and Climate Sciences

A four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) scheme based on a Newtonian relaxation (or “nudging”)... more A four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA) scheme based on a Newtonian relaxation (or “nudging”) was tested using observational asynoptic data collected at a coastal site in the Central Mediterranean peninsula of Calabria, southern Italy. The study is referred to an experimental campaign carried out in summer 2008. For this period a wind profiler, a sodar and two surface meteorological stations were considered. The collected measurements were used for the FDDA scheme, and the technique was incorporated into a tailored version of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). All instruments are installed and operated routinely at the experimental field of the CRATI-ISAC/CNR located at 600 m from the Tyrrhenian coastline. Several simulations were performed, and the results show that the assimilation of wind and/or temperature data, both throughout the simulation time (continuous FDDA) and for a 12 h time window (forecasting configuration), produces improvements of the model perfor...

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Research paper thumbnail of Verification of surface temperature forecast in southern Italy

Operational gridded temperature forecast is issued for Calabria since January 2007 at CRATI Scrl ... more Operational gridded temperature forecast is issued for Calabria since January 2007 at CRATI Scrl in cooperation with ISAC-CNR. The forecast is based on the output of the RAMS model at 6 km horizontal resolution and is issued for the following 4 days. Forecast quality and skill are determined relative to the Regional Meteorological Network which consists of more than 60 thermometers distributed, rather uniformly, over the Region. Measurements available are daily minimum, medium and maximum temperatures and verification refers to these parameters. Cumulative statistics are used to reduce the dimensionality of the forecast verification. In particular, BIAS, RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) and MAE (Mean Absolute Error) are shown for each of the 4-day forecast. Skills are also presented as a function of the season. The orographic complexity of the country is clearly reflected by the cumulative scores. Worst statistics are realized across northwest Calabria, where the resolution of the mode...

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Research paper thumbnail of The seasonal characteristics of the breeze circulation at a coastal Mediterranean site in South Italy

Advances in Science and Research, 2010

We present a study on the characteristics of the sea breeze flow at a coastal site located in the... more We present a study on the characteristics of the sea breeze flow at a coastal site located in the centre of the Mediterranean basin at the southern tip of Italy. This study is finalized to add new data on breeze circulations over a narrow peninsula and present a unique experimental coastal site at about 600 m from the coastline in a flat open area at the foot of a mountain chain located in a region of complex orography. We study the seasonal behaviour of the sea-land breeze circulation by analysing two years of hourly data of wind speed and direction, temperature, radiation and relative humidity from a surface meteorological station, eighteen-months data from a wind profiler, and two-year data from the ECMWF analysis. Results show that breezes dominate the local circulation and play a major role for the local climate. They are modulated by the season, through the sea-land temperature difference and the large-scale flow. The large-scale forcing acts in phase with the diurnal breeze a...

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Research paper thumbnail of Verification of a high-resolution forecasting system of surface minimum, mean and maximum temperature in Calabria for summer 2008

Gridded high horizontal resolution (2.5 km) forecasts of minimum, mean and maximum temperature ar... more Gridded high horizontal resolution (2.5 km) forecasts of minimum, mean and maximum temperature are evaluated against gridded analyses at the same horizontal resolution for Calabria, southern Italy. Temperature forecasts are issued at CRATI/ISAC-CNR (meteo.crati.it/previsioni.html) since 2005 by the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) model and, starting from June 2008, the horizontal resolution was enhanced to 2.5 km. Forecast skill and accuracy are determined out to four days for the 2008 summer season (from 6 June to 30 September). Gridded analysis is based on Optimal Interpolation (OI) and uses RAMS first day forecast for minimum, mean and maximum temperatures as background field. Observations from 87 thermometers of the Centro Funzionale - ARPACAL network are used in the analysis system. Cumulative measure oriented statistics are used to quantify forecast errors out to four days. Results show that maximum temperature has the largest root men square error (RMSE), while mi...

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Research paper thumbnail of Climatology of the sea breeze and its micro-scale structure at a coastal Mediterranean site

We present a study on the characteristics and importance of the sea breeze flow at a coastal site... more We present a study on the characteristics and importance of the sea breeze flow at a coastal site located at the west coast of the peninsular Calabria region, the southern tip of Italy, in the centre of the Mediterranean basin. Modeling the adjustment of the marine air flow inland from the coastal discontinuity in meso-scale models is still a challenge

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Research paper thumbnail of Testing the data assimilation technique for short-term wind forecast in the PBL: a case study

ABSTRACT In this contribution we show the results of using a data assimilation technique to impro... more ABSTRACT In this contribution we show the results of using a data assimilation technique to improve the short-term wind forecast at a site in northern Europe. The assimilation technique is a simple four-dimensional nudging and, for this purpose, we set-up a version of the Regional Atmospheric Modelling System. The nudging technique consists of adding an extra-tendency term, to the prognostic equations of the zonal and meridional wind components, which forces the variable toward the observations. dφm- (φobs -φm-) dt = τ f(r) (1) where φmis model variable (zonal or meridional wind component), φobs is the observation, τ is relaxation time scale (900 s), f(r) is a Gaussian function f(r) = e0-(r/r)Λ2 , and r0=50 km. The method was applied in Denmark where suitable observations were available at the Danish National Test Station for Large Wind Turbines, located at Høvsøre (Western Jutland, Denmark), and refer to the measurements of vertical wind profiles; the instrument is the WINDCUBE Doppler LIDAR. Data were available every 10 minutes at the following levels: 40 m, 60 m, 80 m, 100 m, 116 m, 130 m, 160 m, 200 m, 250 m and 300 m. The data represent the average of the measurement for the previous 10 minutes. Only data available at the 00 minutes of each hour were considered in this study. The RAMS model is set-up with four nested grids. The fourth grid has 1 km horizontal resolution and is centred over the site. Model levels do not coincide with the measurement levels, and, to assimilate and to verify the forecast, the observations were linearly interpolated to the model levels. The physical configuration of the model is the one adopted for operational forecast over the Calabria Region in South Italy. In order to show the potential impact of the nudging technique, we run the model in two different configurations: (a) a simple forecast and (b) an analysis-forecast run. The runs duration is twenty-four hours for both configurations. For each configuration, simulations were performed for a one-month period from 21 April 2010 to 20 May 2010 (one simulation per day, starting at 12 UTC). In the simple forecast, RAMS uses the ECMWF (European Centre For Medium Weather Range Forecast) gridded analysis and forecast data as initial and dynamic boundary conditions available every 6 hours at 0.25 degrees horizontal resolution. In the analysis-forecast run, in addition to the ECMWF initial and boundary conditions, measurements at three-hour time interval are nudged into the model for the first 12 h of simulation. For the second half of the period, the model is driven only by the ECMWF forecast, as for the simple forecast run. To compare the simple forecast and the analysis-forecast runs, we computed the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the Root Means Square Error (RMSE) for one, three, and six hours following the end of the nudging time, i.e. after the first 12 h of simulation. The method was verified we used hourly values at the 00 minutes. So, for each day, one, three, and six model-observation pairs are available for the one, three, and six hours forecast verification. In this work, we show the results of those statistics. There are days in which the forecast is improved by the nudging technique and days in which the nudging technique does not improve or even worsen the forecast. Work is in progress to characterise each day in terms of synoptical versus local situation in order to associate errors at each run at all heights. Further, we aim to repeat the analyses for very-short term forecasts (up to 1 h).

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Research paper thumbnail of Detection of pollutant sources in the atmosphere with Lidar/Dial techniques: Results of an experimental campaign in the south of Italy

ABSTRACT In the last years, surveying large regions of the atmosphere in an automatic way, for ea... more ABSTRACT In the last years, surveying large regions of the atmosphere in an automatic way, for early detection of pollutant sources in urban and industrial areas, has become a strategic objective of various public health organizations. The Lidar/Dial technique has become a well-established laser remote sensing method for atmosphere monitoring. It is often used to probe almost any level of the atmosphere and to acquire information necessary to validate theoretical models about different topics of atmospheric physics. It can also be deployed for environment surveying by monitoring particles, aerosols and molecules. For these reasons, an experimental campaign for evaluating the performances of a Lidar/Dial system in detecting pollutants (particulate and/or chemical compounds) has been carried out in an industrial area in the south of Italy. In this work, a homemade Lidar/Dial system (developed and built by the authors) and the results of the experimental campaign will be presented and discussed.

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Research paper thumbnail of On the assimilation of TOVS data: a case study

actif-ec.net

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Research paper thumbnail of Assessment of the impact of climate change on the olive flowering in Calabria (southern Italy)

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2012

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Research paper thumbnail of Application of the LEPS technique for Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) in Southern Italy: a preliminary study

Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 2006

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Research paper thumbnail of <i>Brief communication</i> "Calabria daily rainfall from 1970 to 2006

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 2010

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Research paper thumbnail of Numerical analysis of an intense rainstorm occurred in southern Italy

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 2008

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Research paper thumbnail of Atmospheric patterns for heavy rain events in Calabria

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 2008

This study investigates the atmospheric pattern circulations associated with heavy rainfall (HR) ... more This study investigates the atmospheric pattern circulations associated with heavy rainfall (HR) days in Calabria, southern Italy, and contributes to the understanding of the dynamical mechanisms that produce those events. Heavy rainfall days are extracted from the raingauge database of the &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;quot;Protezione Civile Regionale&amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;amp;quot;, which has more than a hundred pluviometric stations for the period 1999 2007 (eight years). To

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Research paper thumbnail of Potential shifts in olive flowering according to climate variations in Southern Italy

Meteorological Applications, 2013

ABSTRACT Phenological investigations that adopt aerobiological monitoring methodologies are frequ... more ABSTRACT Phenological investigations that adopt aerobiological monitoring methodologies are frequently used for species that rely on the wind for pollen grain dispersion, such as the olive in the Mediterranean basin. The present study of olive flowering dates was carried out in the Calabria region (southern Italy). These were calculated on the basis of a phenological study of pollen levels in the atmosphere in three typical olive-growing areas over an 11 year study period (1999–2009). This phenological method provides olive flowering maps that are based on temperatures (as the growing degree days: GDDs), which are highly correlated with the release of the pollen grains. According to the model developed, the average GDDs corresponding to the flowering dates were calculated for the baseline period of 1981–2000. Moreover, with the use of meteorological data derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios, the future olive flowering dates are estimated for the 20 year period from 2081 to 2100. The close relationships between the spring temperature trends and the reproductive phenological phases in the olive are highly sensitive to climatic change, which has implications in terms of potential latitude and altitude shifts in the olive cultivation areas. In some cultivation areas in southern Italy, the present particular combination of microclimate, soil status and level of erosion is considered as limiting to regular vegetative plant development. However, the use of olive cultivars that are specifically adapted to extremely stressful environments, in terms of high temperatures and water deficit, might represent the main solution for the mitigation of the consequences of climatic change.

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Research paper thumbnail of Correlation between large-scale atmospheric fields and the olive pollen season in Central Italy

International Journal of Biometeorology, 2008

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Research paper thumbnail of On the Assimilation of Water Vapour LIDAR Measurements: a Case Study

22nd Internation …, 2004

... 1&#x27;2~, Livio Casella~1~, Stefano Federico~2~, Teresa Lo Feudo~2~, Pasquale Gaudio~1~,... more ... 1&#x27;2~, Livio Casella~1~, Stefano Federico~2~, Teresa Lo Feudo~2~, Pasquale Gaudio~1~, Sergio Martellucci~1~, Maria Richetta~1 ... In addition, orographic uplift is overestimated over the Sila mountain and precipitation maximum is mislocated, even if a secondary maximum is ...

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