Emil Attanasi - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Emil Attanasi
Techniques and Methods, 2018
Annals of Regional Science, Mar 1, 1981
![Research paper thumbnail of Offshore exploration performance and industry change. [Historical aspects of exploratory operations in the Gulf of Mexico]](https://attachments.academia-assets.com/111693429/thumbnails/1.jpg)
](Soc. Pet. Eng. AIME, Pap.; (United States), Sep 1, 1982
Mater. Soc.; (United States), 1979
Several petroleum industry models that use both physical and economic data and assumptions are an... more Several petroleum industry models that use both physical and economic data and assumptions are analyzed and the importance of including appropriate physical parameters designed to characterize the future supply of petroleum is noted. To some extent these remarks can also be applied to mineral-supply modeling because deposit size distributions (of contained metal) for other minerals are highly skewed and because there appears to be little physical evidence of a relation between the grade and tonnage of copper ore bodies. As exhaustion of an area proceeds, the physical size distribution of remaining deposits declines systematically. If petroleum supply models are to be used for predicting future discoveries, ways must be found to capture analytically these systematic changes. Discovery process models such as those presented in this paper appear to provide the means for characterizing such changes. 16 references.
Mathematical Geosciences, Nov 1, 1988
Southern Economic Journal, Jul 1, 1977
The purpose of this paper is to examine several alternative behavioral hypotheses relating to the... more The purpose of this paper is to examine several alternative behavioral hypotheses relating to the determinants of field level exploration activity. In particular, this paper examines the intertemporal relationship between operator behavior, changes in profit expectations and the perceived field-size distribution. Alternative formulations and the duration of operator expectations are examined. The plan of the paper is as follows: First, the nature of field exploration activity is briefly described along with a formulation of field expectations. Following this, a discussion of the method of analysis and the data are provided. Empirical results and tests of alternative expectations mechanisms are then presented. The conducting section of the paper discusses the significance of the results for future reserve estimation and supply modeling efforts. 24 refs.
Mathematical Geosciences, May 1, 1985
The assumption of lognormal (parent) field size distributions has for a long time been applied to... more The assumption of lognormal (parent) field size distributions has for a long time been applied to resource appraisal and evaluation of exploration strategy by the petroleum industry. However, frequency distributions estimated with observed data and used to justify this hypotheses are conditional. Examination of various observed field size distributions across basins and over time shows that such distributions should be
Energy Exploration & Exploitation, Jun 1, 1990
The unprecedented natural gas price increases in the late 1970's and early 1980's... more The unprecedented natural gas price increases in the late 1970's and early 1980's allowed a glimpse of part of the in-situ distribution of natural gas fields that had been hidden by economic truncation. Analysis of those discoveries shows the distribution to be characterized by progressively larger numbers of fields as size category declines. This paper demonstrates the effects of economic truncation for gas fields found in Texas State and Federal offshore areas in the Gulf of Mexico. Economic and policy implications of alternative in-situ field size distribution influence future gas supplies, the associated costs, and petroleum industry activity.
American Association of Petroleum Geologists eBooks, 1986
Uncertainty in petroleum resource estimation can be mitigated by using different approaches in ma... more Uncertainty in petroleum resource estimation can be mitigated by using different approaches in making resource estimates for a given area. We divide methods and data into two broad categories. The first is based on geologic data, which aim at estimating the resources of a basin by gaining an understanding of the processes of petroleum formation, migration, and trapping. The second is based on statistical methods, which estimate the resources of a basin by extrapolating the industry's past experience in drilling and discovery to forecast future discoveries. Results of these approaches are compared for Nigeria, North Africa, and many of the world's offshore areas. Undiscovered offshore petroleum resources outside the United States, Canada, and communist countries were estim ted by both methods to be ~ 130 billion bbl. For Nigeria the two methods agree at about 4-6 billion bbl of undiscovered oil. In contrast, for North Africa, where the geologic estimate of undiscovered petroleum is 16 billion bbl and the statistical estimate is 5 billion bbl, the two methods are not in close agreement.
Field growth refers to the phenomenon of increasing estimates of ultimately recoverable oil and g... more Field growth refers to the phenomenon of increasing estimates of ultimately recoverable oil and gas that occur as oil and gas fields are developed. From 1978 to 1990, growth of known fields in the United States has accounted for 90 percent of the annual additions to proved reserves. Now that field growth is recognized as a significant source of additions to proved reserves, field-growth prediction models are being made more sophisticated so that the timing of these reserve additions can be forecast. This paper surveys the literature on field growth and methods of field-growth estimation. It also examines data of nonassociated gas fields of South America, Western Europe, the Middle East, Africa, non-Communist Far East, and the southwestern Pacific to demonstrate evidence of field growth. Field growth patterns are influenced by market conditions for the resource as well as physical characteristics. These data are also then used in an example that demonstrates field-growth analysis. Although international gas fields show clear evidence of field growth, the data are not yet sufficient for estimating reliable growth functions. 14 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.
Natural resources research, Jan 18, 2022
This paper analyzes the relationship between actual reservoir conditions and predicted measures o... more This paper analyzes the relationship between actual reservoir conditions and predicted measures of performance of carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 –EOR) programs. It then shows how CO 2 –EOR operators might maximize the value of their projects by approaching implementation using a “flexible selective” pattern development strategy, where the CO 2 –EOR program patterns are selectively developed based on site-specific reservoir properties. It also analyzes performance measures and economic consequences of utilizing a continuous CO 2 injection strategy intended to maximize CO 2 retention for a defined time period. “Net CO 2 utilization,” calculated as difference between the volumes of CO 2 injected and CO 2 recovered in the production stream divided by the oil produced, is a standard measure of CO 2 –EOR carbon utilization, but it can be a misleading predictor of the actual CO 2 retained in the reservoir. Asset value can be added to a CO 2 –EOR project by recognizing effects of variations in reservoir parameter values and basing incremental development decisions on those data. For policy analysts, the consequences of ignoring geologic variability within a reservoir that is a candidate for CO 2 –EOR will likely be to substantially overestimate predicted adoption of CO 2 –EOR in response to economic incentives. This result holds true whether the CO 2 –EOR program objective is to maximize net value by maximizing oil production or maximize CO 2 storage with oil recovery.
Energy Economics, Apr 1, 1981
Abstract The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how physical characteristics of deposits and... more Abstract The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how physical characteristics of deposits and results of past exploration enter future exploration decisions. A proposed decision model is presented that is consistent with a set of primitive probabilistic assumptions associated with deposit size distributions and discoverability. Analysis of optimal field exploration strategy showed the likely firm responses to alternative exploration taxes and effects on the distribution of future discoveries. Examination of the probabilistic elements of the decision model indicates that changes in firm expectations associated with the distribution of deposits cannot be totally offset by changes in economic variables.
Natural resources research, Jul 15, 2008
Sustained crude oil price increases have led to increased investment in and production of Canadia... more Sustained crude oil price increases have led to increased investment in and production of Canadian bitumen to supplement North American oil supplies. For new projects, the evaluation of profitability is based on a prediction of the future price path of bitumen and ultimately light/medium crude oil. This article examines the relationship between the bitumen and light crude oil prices in the context of a simple error-correction economic-adjustment model. The analysis shows bitumen prices to be significantly more volatile than light crude prices. Also, the dominant effect of an oil price shock on bitumen prices is immediate and is amplified, both in absolute terms and percentage price changes. It is argued that the bitumen industry response to such market risks will likely be a realignment toward vertical integration via new downstream construction, mergers, or on a de facto basis by the establishment of alliances.
Energy Procedia, Jul 1, 2017
Water Resources Research, Apr 1, 1977
Management Science, Jul 1, 1974
This note provides an alternative interpretation for sequential bid pricing strategies as initial... more This note provides an alternative interpretation for sequential bid pricing strategies as initially formulated by Kortanek, Soden, and Sodaro [Kortanek, K. O., J. V. Soden, D. Sodabo. 1973. Profit analysis and sequential bid pricing models. Management Sci. 20 (3, November) 396–417.]. In particular, bid prices obtained from the sequential model are shown to result from a condition which incorporates the failure rate function as a means of including probable actions of competing firms. A reformulation of the bidder's criterion function in the context of utility theory is also discussed and shown to result in bidding strategies which may also be interpreted in the proposed fashion.
AAPG Bulletin, 1993
In the 1989 National Oil and Gas Assessment prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the... more In the 1989 National Oil and Gas Assessment prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Minerals Management Service, undiscovered oil and gas resources in small fields were assessed separately from resources in fields containing more than 1 million bbl of oil equivalent. This paper concerns the USGS Part of the study: onshore and state waters in the conterminous United States. After the resources in small fields were assessed by geologists, statistical techniques were used to allocate these resources to field-size distributions at the province level. The total numbers of small fields remaining to be discovered is estimated at about 77,800. They account for about 10.6 billion bbl of oil equivalent or 20% of the undiscovered resources in the conterminous United st tes. When an economic analysis was applied to the small fields, none of the offshore small fields were estimated to be commercially developable. For the onshore study area, about 52% of the small oil fields and 46% of the small gas fields are commercially developable. Overall, because more hydrocarbons are contained in the larger size classes of the small fields, about 70% of the undiscovered resources in small fields is expected to be commercially developable.
Techniques and Methods, 2018
Annals of Regional Science, Mar 1, 1981
Soc. Pet. Eng. AIME, Pap.; (United States), Sep 1, 1982
Mater. Soc.; (United States), 1979
Several petroleum industry models that use both physical and economic data and assumptions are an... more Several petroleum industry models that use both physical and economic data and assumptions are analyzed and the importance of including appropriate physical parameters designed to characterize the future supply of petroleum is noted. To some extent these remarks can also be applied to mineral-supply modeling because deposit size distributions (of contained metal) for other minerals are highly skewed and because there appears to be little physical evidence of a relation between the grade and tonnage of copper ore bodies. As exhaustion of an area proceeds, the physical size distribution of remaining deposits declines systematically. If petroleum supply models are to be used for predicting future discoveries, ways must be found to capture analytically these systematic changes. Discovery process models such as those presented in this paper appear to provide the means for characterizing such changes. 16 references.
Mathematical Geosciences, Nov 1, 1988
Southern Economic Journal, Jul 1, 1977
The purpose of this paper is to examine several alternative behavioral hypotheses relating to the... more The purpose of this paper is to examine several alternative behavioral hypotheses relating to the determinants of field level exploration activity. In particular, this paper examines the intertemporal relationship between operator behavior, changes in profit expectations and the perceived field-size distribution. Alternative formulations and the duration of operator expectations are examined. The plan of the paper is as follows: First, the nature of field exploration activity is briefly described along with a formulation of field expectations. Following this, a discussion of the method of analysis and the data are provided. Empirical results and tests of alternative expectations mechanisms are then presented. The conducting section of the paper discusses the significance of the results for future reserve estimation and supply modeling efforts. 24 refs.
Mathematical Geosciences, May 1, 1985
The assumption of lognormal (parent) field size distributions has for a long time been applied to... more The assumption of lognormal (parent) field size distributions has for a long time been applied to resource appraisal and evaluation of exploration strategy by the petroleum industry. However, frequency distributions estimated with observed data and used to justify this hypotheses are conditional. Examination of various observed field size distributions across basins and over time shows that such distributions should be
Energy Exploration & Exploitation, Jun 1, 1990
The unprecedented natural gas price increases in the late 1970's and early 1980's... more The unprecedented natural gas price increases in the late 1970's and early 1980's allowed a glimpse of part of the in-situ distribution of natural gas fields that had been hidden by economic truncation. Analysis of those discoveries shows the distribution to be characterized by progressively larger numbers of fields as size category declines. This paper demonstrates the effects of economic truncation for gas fields found in Texas State and Federal offshore areas in the Gulf of Mexico. Economic and policy implications of alternative in-situ field size distribution influence future gas supplies, the associated costs, and petroleum industry activity.
American Association of Petroleum Geologists eBooks, 1986
Uncertainty in petroleum resource estimation can be mitigated by using different approaches in ma... more Uncertainty in petroleum resource estimation can be mitigated by using different approaches in making resource estimates for a given area. We divide methods and data into two broad categories. The first is based on geologic data, which aim at estimating the resources of a basin by gaining an understanding of the processes of petroleum formation, migration, and trapping. The second is based on statistical methods, which estimate the resources of a basin by extrapolating the industry's past experience in drilling and discovery to forecast future discoveries. Results of these approaches are compared for Nigeria, North Africa, and many of the world's offshore areas. Undiscovered offshore petroleum resources outside the United States, Canada, and communist countries were estim ted by both methods to be ~ 130 billion bbl. For Nigeria the two methods agree at about 4-6 billion bbl of undiscovered oil. In contrast, for North Africa, where the geologic estimate of undiscovered petroleum is 16 billion bbl and the statistical estimate is 5 billion bbl, the two methods are not in close agreement.
Field growth refers to the phenomenon of increasing estimates of ultimately recoverable oil and g... more Field growth refers to the phenomenon of increasing estimates of ultimately recoverable oil and gas that occur as oil and gas fields are developed. From 1978 to 1990, growth of known fields in the United States has accounted for 90 percent of the annual additions to proved reserves. Now that field growth is recognized as a significant source of additions to proved reserves, field-growth prediction models are being made more sophisticated so that the timing of these reserve additions can be forecast. This paper surveys the literature on field growth and methods of field-growth estimation. It also examines data of nonassociated gas fields of South America, Western Europe, the Middle East, Africa, non-Communist Far East, and the southwestern Pacific to demonstrate evidence of field growth. Field growth patterns are influenced by market conditions for the resource as well as physical characteristics. These data are also then used in an example that demonstrates field-growth analysis. Although international gas fields show clear evidence of field growth, the data are not yet sufficient for estimating reliable growth functions. 14 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.
Natural resources research, Jan 18, 2022
This paper analyzes the relationship between actual reservoir conditions and predicted measures o... more This paper analyzes the relationship between actual reservoir conditions and predicted measures of performance of carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery (CO 2 –EOR) programs. It then shows how CO 2 –EOR operators might maximize the value of their projects by approaching implementation using a “flexible selective” pattern development strategy, where the CO 2 –EOR program patterns are selectively developed based on site-specific reservoir properties. It also analyzes performance measures and economic consequences of utilizing a continuous CO 2 injection strategy intended to maximize CO 2 retention for a defined time period. “Net CO 2 utilization,” calculated as difference between the volumes of CO 2 injected and CO 2 recovered in the production stream divided by the oil produced, is a standard measure of CO 2 –EOR carbon utilization, but it can be a misleading predictor of the actual CO 2 retained in the reservoir. Asset value can be added to a CO 2 –EOR project by recognizing effects of variations in reservoir parameter values and basing incremental development decisions on those data. For policy analysts, the consequences of ignoring geologic variability within a reservoir that is a candidate for CO 2 –EOR will likely be to substantially overestimate predicted adoption of CO 2 –EOR in response to economic incentives. This result holds true whether the CO 2 –EOR program objective is to maximize net value by maximizing oil production or maximize CO 2 storage with oil recovery.
Energy Economics, Apr 1, 1981
Abstract The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how physical characteristics of deposits and... more Abstract The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how physical characteristics of deposits and results of past exploration enter future exploration decisions. A proposed decision model is presented that is consistent with a set of primitive probabilistic assumptions associated with deposit size distributions and discoverability. Analysis of optimal field exploration strategy showed the likely firm responses to alternative exploration taxes and effects on the distribution of future discoveries. Examination of the probabilistic elements of the decision model indicates that changes in firm expectations associated with the distribution of deposits cannot be totally offset by changes in economic variables.
Natural resources research, Jul 15, 2008
Sustained crude oil price increases have led to increased investment in and production of Canadia... more Sustained crude oil price increases have led to increased investment in and production of Canadian bitumen to supplement North American oil supplies. For new projects, the evaluation of profitability is based on a prediction of the future price path of bitumen and ultimately light/medium crude oil. This article examines the relationship between the bitumen and light crude oil prices in the context of a simple error-correction economic-adjustment model. The analysis shows bitumen prices to be significantly more volatile than light crude prices. Also, the dominant effect of an oil price shock on bitumen prices is immediate and is amplified, both in absolute terms and percentage price changes. It is argued that the bitumen industry response to such market risks will likely be a realignment toward vertical integration via new downstream construction, mergers, or on a de facto basis by the establishment of alliances.
Energy Procedia, Jul 1, 2017
Water Resources Research, Apr 1, 1977
Management Science, Jul 1, 1974
This note provides an alternative interpretation for sequential bid pricing strategies as initial... more This note provides an alternative interpretation for sequential bid pricing strategies as initially formulated by Kortanek, Soden, and Sodaro [Kortanek, K. O., J. V. Soden, D. Sodabo. 1973. Profit analysis and sequential bid pricing models. Management Sci. 20 (3, November) 396–417.]. In particular, bid prices obtained from the sequential model are shown to result from a condition which incorporates the failure rate function as a means of including probable actions of competing firms. A reformulation of the bidder's criterion function in the context of utility theory is also discussed and shown to result in bidding strategies which may also be interpreted in the proposed fashion.
AAPG Bulletin, 1993
In the 1989 National Oil and Gas Assessment prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the... more In the 1989 National Oil and Gas Assessment prepared by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Minerals Management Service, undiscovered oil and gas resources in small fields were assessed separately from resources in fields containing more than 1 million bbl of oil equivalent. This paper concerns the USGS Part of the study: onshore and state waters in the conterminous United States. After the resources in small fields were assessed by geologists, statistical techniques were used to allocate these resources to field-size distributions at the province level. The total numbers of small fields remaining to be discovered is estimated at about 77,800. They account for about 10.6 billion bbl of oil equivalent or 20% of the undiscovered resources in the conterminous United st tes. When an economic analysis was applied to the small fields, none of the offshore small fields were estimated to be commercially developable. For the onshore study area, about 52% of the small oil fields and 46% of the small gas fields are commercially developable. Overall, because more hydrocarbons are contained in the larger size classes of the small fields, about 70% of the undiscovered resources in small fields is expected to be commercially developable.