Emilio Ocampo - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Emilio Ocampo
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Jun 1, 2021
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2020
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2021
Argentina's modern economic history offers perhaps the clearest evidence in support of a rules-ba... more Argentina's modern economic history offers perhaps the clearest evidence in support of a rules-based fiscal and monetary policy framework. From 1899 until 1914 the country abided by the rules of the gold standard and experienced rapid GDP growth with price stability. After WWI and until 1939, when it was mostly off the gold standard, its inflation rate and fiscal balances remained in line with those of the world's most developed countries. During the 1930s the Argentine Treasury was able to issue long-term debt in pesos at rates between 3% and 4% per annum. Something fundamental happened after 1945 and its effects proved persistent: since then inflation has averaged 143% a year-with several bouts of extreme inflation and hyperinflation. In the last 50 years, persistent and high fiscal imbalances, low growth and recurrent sovereign debt defaults have become semi-permanent features of the Argentine economy. This paper argues that Argentina suffers from a condition that can be described as fiscal and monetary anomie, the roots of which can be traced back to the establishment of a populist-corporatist economic regime in 1946. It also contends that the failure of the 1990s structural reforms reinforced this condition.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2020
Before Hugo Chavez burst into the political scene in Venezuela, Argentina's Juan Perón (1895-1974... more Before Hugo Chavez burst into the political scene in Venezuela, Argentina's Juan Perón (1895-1974) was considered the quintessential Latin American populist leader. He ruled Argentina
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2020
In the last three decades average inflation rates have declined around the world. Since 1995 the ... more In the last three decades average inflation rates have declined around the world. Since 1995 the number of countries with inflation rates below 10% a year increased from 98 (54% of the total) to an average of 178 in 2015-2019 (90% of the total). In the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), inflation in the US has averaged 1.8% a year despite an unprecedented monetary expansion, and more recently, a drop in the unemployment rate to historical lows. In the last decades, two of modern macroeconomic theory's most important relationships appear to have broken down: the Quantity Theory of Money (QTM) and the Phillips Curve (PC). This paper i) presents evidence that confirms the global disinflationary trend of the last three decades, ii) identifies previous historical episodes during which the QTM appeared to break down in the US and the UK and the theoretical reassessment that it provoked, iii) examines experts' reaction to the apparent current breakdown of the QTM and the PC and the alternative paradigms that have emerged, and iv) reviews the alternative hypotheses that have been proposed to explain global disinflation, focusing particularly on the effects of technological innovation and globalization. 1 Ines S. Ocampo provided valuable research assistance in the preparation of this paper. I received helpful comments from Jorge Streb, Jorge Ávila, Carlos Newland, José Dapena and Martín Lagos. Any mistakes are my sole responsibility. My viewpoints do not necessarily represent those of Universidad del CEMA. 2 Changes in the general level of prices have always excited great interest. Obscure in origin, they exert a profound and far-reaching influence on the whole economic and social life of a country.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2021
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2020
Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2020
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2020
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Apr 1, 2021
The Economists’ Voice
This paper looks at twenty first-century dollarization in Latin America. We emphasize that dollar... more This paper looks at twenty first-century dollarization in Latin America. We emphasize that dollarization is a complex reform that can be implemented in many different ways. We draw three important lessons from these experiences: (1) keeping the central bank after dollarizing is an unnecessary institutional vulnerability that facilitates compulsive de-dollarization, (2) public opinion offers the most important defense of dollarization against populist attempts at reversal, and (3) even if dollarization is not supported with structural reforms (or such reforms are reversed), it remains superior to the counterfactual of no reforms with persistent, high and volatile inflation.
Social Science Research Network, 2023
This paper summarizes Peron's economic ideas, which guided his economic policies and those of his... more This paper summarizes Peron's economic ideas, which guided his economic policies and those of his contemporary successors.Peronism emphasized income redistribution in favor of the urban masses by promoting the expansion of an inward looking industrial sector, imposing trade and financial autarchy, taking control of the banking sytem, enforcing financial repression and putting key areas of economic activity under state control. Peronism had a lasting, decisive and negative impact on the evolution of the Argentine economy after 1945 and introduced pathdependence on inflation, deficit and stagnation.
Argentina's economic and institutional decline has long posed a conundrum to economists and s... more Argentina's economic and institutional decline has long posed a conundrum to economists and social scientists. In particular, it challenges modern theories that seek to explain differences in economic growth across countries. Theories that claim that institutions have a first-order effect on growth cannot explain the secular economic decadence of the most institutionally advanced country in Latin America. Theories that claim that that education precedes good institutions, cannot explain the institutional degradation of the most educationally advanced country in Latin America. Theories that claim that social capital is the determinant factor face an equally daunting problem. This paper emphasizes the key role played by recurrent cycles of populism in pushing the country into secular decadence. It explains these cycles in terms of the interaction of culture and institutions and posits that rising commodity prices are a signal of impending political change and predict the ascent of...
Durante el periodo 1977-1982, el economista cubano-argentino Armando Ribas se convirtio en uno de... more Durante el periodo 1977-1982, el economista cubano-argentino Armando Ribas se convirtio en uno de los criticos mas visibles y persistentes de la politica economica implementada bajo el gobierno militar liderada inicialmente por Jose Alfredo Martinez de Hoz. La principal critica de Ribas se centraba en la inconsistencia entre la politica fiscal y monetaria y la importancia de reducir el gasto publico para asegurar el exito de cualquier plan de estabilizacion. Con el termino “monetarismo cum estatismo” definio la implementacion de una politica fiscal expansiva y una politica monetaria restrictiva. El presente trabajo, completado en abril de 2017, resena las ideas de Ribas, su critica al enfoque monetario de la balanza de pagos y el plan de estabilizacion de diciembre de 1978 y plantea ciertos paralelismos entre las politicas economicas implementadas entre 1978-1980 y 2016-2017.
After being dormant for several decades, populism has resurfaced in Europe and North America. Sin... more After being dormant for several decades, populism has resurfaced in Europe and North America. Since the beginning of the 21st century Europe’s populist parties have tripled their vote and were able to put their leaders into government posts in eleven countries, which has increased thirteen fold the population living under populist regimes. The virus has even contaminated Anglo-Saxon countries, which were considered immune. This new strain of populism seems different from the one that infected Latin America for most of the second half of the 20th century. Instead of fostering class struggle it appeals to racism, xenophobia and anti-globalization. In this regard, it has a closer resemblance to early 20th century European populist strains. Although much has been written about populism, a widely accepted definition remains elusive. Before Hugo Chavez burst into the political scene in Venezuela, Argentina’s Juan Perón (1895-1974) was considered the quintessential Latin American populist ...
This article presents a summary of the main theoretical arguments and policy recommendations of M... more This article presents a summary of the main theoretical arguments and policy recommendations of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and traces back its intellectual origins to the writings on money of Georg F. Knapp and on fiscal policy of Abba P. Lerner. It also presents evidence on two countries that followed MMT like policies: Germany between 1939 and 1945 and Argentina with brief interruptions since 1946. The main conclusion of the article is that any country that consistently follows the policy prescriptions of MMT will inevitably experience high inflation and lower (and even negative) economic growth.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Jun 1, 2021
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2020
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2021
Argentina's modern economic history offers perhaps the clearest evidence in support of a rules-ba... more Argentina's modern economic history offers perhaps the clearest evidence in support of a rules-based fiscal and monetary policy framework. From 1899 until 1914 the country abided by the rules of the gold standard and experienced rapid GDP growth with price stability. After WWI and until 1939, when it was mostly off the gold standard, its inflation rate and fiscal balances remained in line with those of the world's most developed countries. During the 1930s the Argentine Treasury was able to issue long-term debt in pesos at rates between 3% and 4% per annum. Something fundamental happened after 1945 and its effects proved persistent: since then inflation has averaged 143% a year-with several bouts of extreme inflation and hyperinflation. In the last 50 years, persistent and high fiscal imbalances, low growth and recurrent sovereign debt defaults have become semi-permanent features of the Argentine economy. This paper argues that Argentina suffers from a condition that can be described as fiscal and monetary anomie, the roots of which can be traced back to the establishment of a populist-corporatist economic regime in 1946. It also contends that the failure of the 1990s structural reforms reinforced this condition.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2020
Before Hugo Chavez burst into the political scene in Venezuela, Argentina's Juan Perón (1895-1974... more Before Hugo Chavez burst into the political scene in Venezuela, Argentina's Juan Perón (1895-1974) was considered the quintessential Latin American populist leader. He ruled Argentina
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2020
In the last three decades average inflation rates have declined around the world. Since 1995 the ... more In the last three decades average inflation rates have declined around the world. Since 1995 the number of countries with inflation rates below 10% a year increased from 98 (54% of the total) to an average of 178 in 2015-2019 (90% of the total). In the aftermath of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC), inflation in the US has averaged 1.8% a year despite an unprecedented monetary expansion, and more recently, a drop in the unemployment rate to historical lows. In the last decades, two of modern macroeconomic theory's most important relationships appear to have broken down: the Quantity Theory of Money (QTM) and the Phillips Curve (PC). This paper i) presents evidence that confirms the global disinflationary trend of the last three decades, ii) identifies previous historical episodes during which the QTM appeared to break down in the US and the UK and the theoretical reassessment that it provoked, iii) examines experts' reaction to the apparent current breakdown of the QTM and the PC and the alternative paradigms that have emerged, and iv) reviews the alternative hypotheses that have been proposed to explain global disinflation, focusing particularly on the effects of technological innovation and globalization. 1 Ines S. Ocampo provided valuable research assistance in the preparation of this paper. I received helpful comments from Jorge Streb, Jorge Ávila, Carlos Newland, José Dapena and Martín Lagos. Any mistakes are my sole responsibility. My viewpoints do not necessarily represent those of Universidad del CEMA. 2 Changes in the general level of prices have always excited great interest. Obscure in origin, they exert a profound and far-reaching influence on the whole economic and social life of a country.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2021
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2020
Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2020
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2020
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Apr 1, 2021
The Economists’ Voice
This paper looks at twenty first-century dollarization in Latin America. We emphasize that dollar... more This paper looks at twenty first-century dollarization in Latin America. We emphasize that dollarization is a complex reform that can be implemented in many different ways. We draw three important lessons from these experiences: (1) keeping the central bank after dollarizing is an unnecessary institutional vulnerability that facilitates compulsive de-dollarization, (2) public opinion offers the most important defense of dollarization against populist attempts at reversal, and (3) even if dollarization is not supported with structural reforms (or such reforms are reversed), it remains superior to the counterfactual of no reforms with persistent, high and volatile inflation.
Social Science Research Network, 2023
This paper summarizes Peron's economic ideas, which guided his economic policies and those of his... more This paper summarizes Peron's economic ideas, which guided his economic policies and those of his contemporary successors.Peronism emphasized income redistribution in favor of the urban masses by promoting the expansion of an inward looking industrial sector, imposing trade and financial autarchy, taking control of the banking sytem, enforcing financial repression and putting key areas of economic activity under state control. Peronism had a lasting, decisive and negative impact on the evolution of the Argentine economy after 1945 and introduced pathdependence on inflation, deficit and stagnation.
Argentina's economic and institutional decline has long posed a conundrum to economists and s... more Argentina's economic and institutional decline has long posed a conundrum to economists and social scientists. In particular, it challenges modern theories that seek to explain differences in economic growth across countries. Theories that claim that institutions have a first-order effect on growth cannot explain the secular economic decadence of the most institutionally advanced country in Latin America. Theories that claim that that education precedes good institutions, cannot explain the institutional degradation of the most educationally advanced country in Latin America. Theories that claim that social capital is the determinant factor face an equally daunting problem. This paper emphasizes the key role played by recurrent cycles of populism in pushing the country into secular decadence. It explains these cycles in terms of the interaction of culture and institutions and posits that rising commodity prices are a signal of impending political change and predict the ascent of...
Durante el periodo 1977-1982, el economista cubano-argentino Armando Ribas se convirtio en uno de... more Durante el periodo 1977-1982, el economista cubano-argentino Armando Ribas se convirtio en uno de los criticos mas visibles y persistentes de la politica economica implementada bajo el gobierno militar liderada inicialmente por Jose Alfredo Martinez de Hoz. La principal critica de Ribas se centraba en la inconsistencia entre la politica fiscal y monetaria y la importancia de reducir el gasto publico para asegurar el exito de cualquier plan de estabilizacion. Con el termino “monetarismo cum estatismo” definio la implementacion de una politica fiscal expansiva y una politica monetaria restrictiva. El presente trabajo, completado en abril de 2017, resena las ideas de Ribas, su critica al enfoque monetario de la balanza de pagos y el plan de estabilizacion de diciembre de 1978 y plantea ciertos paralelismos entre las politicas economicas implementadas entre 1978-1980 y 2016-2017.
After being dormant for several decades, populism has resurfaced in Europe and North America. Sin... more After being dormant for several decades, populism has resurfaced in Europe and North America. Since the beginning of the 21st century Europe’s populist parties have tripled their vote and were able to put their leaders into government posts in eleven countries, which has increased thirteen fold the population living under populist regimes. The virus has even contaminated Anglo-Saxon countries, which were considered immune. This new strain of populism seems different from the one that infected Latin America for most of the second half of the 20th century. Instead of fostering class struggle it appeals to racism, xenophobia and anti-globalization. In this regard, it has a closer resemblance to early 20th century European populist strains. Although much has been written about populism, a widely accepted definition remains elusive. Before Hugo Chavez burst into the political scene in Venezuela, Argentina’s Juan Perón (1895-1974) was considered the quintessential Latin American populist ...
This article presents a summary of the main theoretical arguments and policy recommendations of M... more This article presents a summary of the main theoretical arguments and policy recommendations of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and traces back its intellectual origins to the writings on money of Georg F. Knapp and on fiscal policy of Abba P. Lerner. It also presents evidence on two countries that followed MMT like policies: Germany between 1939 and 1945 and Argentina with brief interruptions since 1946. The main conclusion of the article is that any country that consistently follows the policy prescriptions of MMT will inevitably experience high inflation and lower (and even negative) economic growth.