Elena Esposito - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Elena Esposito
SSRN Electronic Journal
The consequences of successful public health interventions for social violence and conflict are l... more The consequences of successful public health interventions for social violence and conflict are largely unknown. This paper closes this gap by evaluating the effect of a major health intervention-the successful expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) to combat the HIV/AIDS pandemicin Africa. To identify the effect, we combine exogenous variation in the scope for treatment and global variation in drug prices. We find that the ART expansion significantly reduced the number of violent events in African countries and sub-national regions. The effect pertains to social violence and unrest, not civil war. The evidence also shows that the effect is not explained by general improvements in economic prosperity, but related to health improvements, greater approval of government policy, and increased trust in political institutions. Results of a counterfactual simulation reveal the largest potential gains in countries with intermediate HIV prevalence where disease control has been given relatively low priority.
The resistance of Sub-Saharan Africans to diseases that were plaguing the southern United States ... more The resistance of Sub-Saharan Africans to diseases that were plaguing the southern United States contributed to the establishment of African slavery in those regions. Specifically, Africans' resistance to malaria increased the profitability of employing African slave labor, especially that of slaves coming from the most malaria-ridden parts of Africa. In this paper, I first document that African slavery was largely concentrated in the malaria-infested areas of the United States. Moreover, I show that the introduction of a virulent strain of malaria into US colonies greatly increased the share of African slaves, but only in states where malaria could thrive. Finally, by looking at the historical prices of African slaves, I show that enslaved individuals born in the most malaria-ridden African regions commanded higher prices.
Why did African slavery rise in the southern United States? The novel empirical evidence presente... more Why did African slavery rise in the southern United States? The novel empirical evidence presented in this paper reveals that (i) malaria was a major determinant for the rise and spread of African slavery in the US South and (ii) malaria resistance made sub-Saharan Africans especially attractive for employment in these regions. We show that African enslaved labor was massively introduced in the United States after the spread of a deadly malaria species, and that it remained largely concentrated in the more malariainfested areas of the South. We further document that more malaria-resistant slaves, i.e. those born in the most malaria-ridden regions of Africa, commanded higher prices.
We investigate the epidemiological origins of ethnic diversity and its persistence. First, we con... more We investigate the epidemiological origins of ethnic diversity and its persistence. First, we conceptualize the role of malaria for the incentives to voluntary isolation in a Malthusian environment. The theory predicts that interactions in multiple geographically clustered groups with high sexual endogamy allowed limiting disease prevalence and increasing group fitness in pre-modern populations exposed to malaria. Second, using disaggregate level data, we document the hitherto unexplored and robust role of malaria for pre-colonial, historical and contemporaneous ethnic diversity in Africa. Third, falsification tests based on malaria epidemiology and history further allow us to validate the specific predictions of the model. No effect can be detected for other placebo vector-borne diseases. Malaria is a main driver of pre-colonial ethnic diversity in Africa but not in the Americas, where the pathogen was absent before European colonization. Fourth, the effect of ancestral malaria on ...
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017
Journal of Development Economics, 2021
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2021
This paper presents the first systematic investigation of the effect of epidemic shocks on civil ... more This paper presents the first systematic investigation of the effect of epidemic shocks on civil violence. The identification exploits exogenous within cell×year variation in conditions that are suitable for malaria transmission using a panel database with month-by-month variation at a resolution of 1° × 1° latitude/longitude for Africa. Suitable conditions increase civil violence in areas with populations susceptible to epidemic outbreaks. The effect is immediate, related to the acute phase of the epidemic, and largest during short harvesting seasons of subsistence crops. Genetic immunities and anti-malaria policies attenuate the effect. The results deliver new insights for prevention and attenuation policies and for potential consequences of climate change.
Economic Policy
This paper explores the existence of a link between the long-term exposure to malaria and the fre... more This paper explores the existence of a link between the long-term exposure to malaria and the frequency of civil conflicts in Africa. Using geographically disaggregated data at the level of grid cells the analysis provides empirical evidence for a hump-shaped relationship between the long-run stability and force of malaria transmission and the incidence of civil violence. In line with epidemiological predictions about the acquired immunity to malaria, cells that are characterized by intermediate malaria exposure exhibit higher conflict incidence than cells with very low or very high malaria exposure. We explore the role of the expansion of anti-malaria policies after 2005 in the context of the Roll Back Malaria programme. The results provide suggestive evidence that anti-malaria interventions reduced the incidence of civil violence, but only in areas where adults lack acquired immunity to malaria.
SSRN Electronic Journal
The consequences of successful public health interventions for social violence and conflict are l... more The consequences of successful public health interventions for social violence and conflict are largely unknown. This paper closes this gap by evaluating the effect of a major health intervention-the successful expansion of anti-retroviral therapy (ART) to combat the HIV/AIDS pandemicin Africa. To identify the effect, we combine exogenous variation in the scope for treatment and global variation in drug prices. We find that the ART expansion significantly reduced the number of violent events in African countries and sub-national regions. The effect pertains to social violence and unrest, not civil war. The evidence also shows that the effect is not explained by general improvements in economic prosperity, but related to health improvements, greater approval of government policy, and increased trust in political institutions. Results of a counterfactual simulation reveal the largest potential gains in countries with intermediate HIV prevalence where disease control has been given relatively low priority.
The resistance of Sub-Saharan Africans to diseases that were plaguing the southern United States ... more The resistance of Sub-Saharan Africans to diseases that were plaguing the southern United States contributed to the establishment of African slavery in those regions. Specifically, Africans' resistance to malaria increased the profitability of employing African slave labor, especially that of slaves coming from the most malaria-ridden parts of Africa. In this paper, I first document that African slavery was largely concentrated in the malaria-infested areas of the United States. Moreover, I show that the introduction of a virulent strain of malaria into US colonies greatly increased the share of African slaves, but only in states where malaria could thrive. Finally, by looking at the historical prices of African slaves, I show that enslaved individuals born in the most malaria-ridden African regions commanded higher prices.
Why did African slavery rise in the southern United States? The novel empirical evidence presente... more Why did African slavery rise in the southern United States? The novel empirical evidence presented in this paper reveals that (i) malaria was a major determinant for the rise and spread of African slavery in the US South and (ii) malaria resistance made sub-Saharan Africans especially attractive for employment in these regions. We show that African enslaved labor was massively introduced in the United States after the spread of a deadly malaria species, and that it remained largely concentrated in the more malariainfested areas of the South. We further document that more malaria-resistant slaves, i.e. those born in the most malaria-ridden regions of Africa, commanded higher prices.
We investigate the epidemiological origins of ethnic diversity and its persistence. First, we con... more We investigate the epidemiological origins of ethnic diversity and its persistence. First, we conceptualize the role of malaria for the incentives to voluntary isolation in a Malthusian environment. The theory predicts that interactions in multiple geographically clustered groups with high sexual endogamy allowed limiting disease prevalence and increasing group fitness in pre-modern populations exposed to malaria. Second, using disaggregate level data, we document the hitherto unexplored and robust role of malaria for pre-colonial, historical and contemporaneous ethnic diversity in Africa. Third, falsification tests based on malaria epidemiology and history further allow us to validate the specific predictions of the model. No effect can be detected for other placebo vector-borne diseases. Malaria is a main driver of pre-colonial ethnic diversity in Africa but not in the Americas, where the pathogen was absent before European colonization. Fourth, the effect of ancestral malaria on ...
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2017
Journal of Development Economics, 2021
The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2021
This paper presents the first systematic investigation of the effect of epidemic shocks on civil ... more This paper presents the first systematic investigation of the effect of epidemic shocks on civil violence. The identification exploits exogenous within cell×year variation in conditions that are suitable for malaria transmission using a panel database with month-by-month variation at a resolution of 1° × 1° latitude/longitude for Africa. Suitable conditions increase civil violence in areas with populations susceptible to epidemic outbreaks. The effect is immediate, related to the acute phase of the epidemic, and largest during short harvesting seasons of subsistence crops. Genetic immunities and anti-malaria policies attenuate the effect. The results deliver new insights for prevention and attenuation policies and for potential consequences of climate change.
Economic Policy
This paper explores the existence of a link between the long-term exposure to malaria and the fre... more This paper explores the existence of a link between the long-term exposure to malaria and the frequency of civil conflicts in Africa. Using geographically disaggregated data at the level of grid cells the analysis provides empirical evidence for a hump-shaped relationship between the long-run stability and force of malaria transmission and the incidence of civil violence. In line with epidemiological predictions about the acquired immunity to malaria, cells that are characterized by intermediate malaria exposure exhibit higher conflict incidence than cells with very low or very high malaria exposure. We explore the role of the expansion of anti-malaria policies after 2005 in the context of the Roll Back Malaria programme. The results provide suggestive evidence that anti-malaria interventions reduced the incidence of civil violence, but only in areas where adults lack acquired immunity to malaria.