Euripide AVOKPAHO - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Euripide AVOKPAHO
*PSAC: Pre-School Aged Children, **SAC: School Aged Children.</p
Nature Medicine, 2020
A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experie... more A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, poli...
Lancet (London, England), Jan 7, 2015
Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and year... more Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally...
Parasitology Research, 2022
Among the Plasmodium species that infect humans, P. falciparum has been largely studied in malari... more Among the Plasmodium species that infect humans, P. falciparum has been largely studied in malaria endemic areas. However, P. malariae infection is less documented among the human population. This study aimed to monitor the prevalence and distribution of P. malariae in Southern Benin. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in rural localities in the Ouidah-Kpomasse-Tori Bossito (OKT) health district in Southern Benin from June to October 2019. Socio-demographic data were collected using a questionnaire, while malaria infection data were obtained on the one hand by microscopy diagnosis and, on the other, by nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Based on microscopy, the prevalence of P. malariae mono-infection and coinfection of P. falciparum, P. malariae was respectively 2.3% and 1.2% in the OKT health district. This prevalence was higher (P < 0.01) than that reported by Damien et al. (2010) 10 years ago in the same study area with 0.7% and 0.3% of P. malariae and P. falciparum/P. malariae, respectively. Based on PCR analysis, P. malariae prevalence was 14.1%, including 5.2% of mono-infection and 8.9% of mixed infection with P. falciparum. Sub-microscopic Plasmodium infections were high (30.6%) and more pronounced in older participants (>20 years). The present study revealed that P. malariae increased in the OKT health district with a high prevalence of submicroscopic infection. Since our results provide valuable evidence of increasing P. malariae infection, the National Malaria Control Programs (NMCPs) must consider P. malariae when designing future measures for effective control and malaria treatment.
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Apr 17, 2020
Nature Medicine
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the pa... more An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
Nature Medicine, 2020
A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experie... more A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, poli...
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Background Despite several years of school-based MDA implementation, STH infections remain an imp... more Background Despite several years of school-based MDA implementation, STH infections remain an important public health problem in Benin, with a country-wide prevalence of 20% in 2015. The DeWorm3 study is designed to assess the feasibility of using community-based MDA with albendazole to interrupt the transmission of STH, through a series of cluster-randomized trials in Benin, India and Malawi. We used the pre-treatment baseline survey data to describe and analyze the factors associated with STH infection in Comé, the study site of the DeWorm3 project in Benin. These data will improve understanding of the challenges that need to be addressed in order to eliminate STH as a public health problem in Benin. Methods Between March and April 2018, the prevalence of STH (hookworm spp., Ascaris and Trichuris trichiura) was assessed by Kato-Katz in stool samples collected from 6,153 residents in the community of Comé, Benin using a stratified random sampling procedure. A standardized survey qu...
Advances in Infectious Diseases
Introduction: Self-medication is a common practice in Benin. It has many consequences on people's... more Introduction: Self-medication is a common practice in Benin. It has many consequences on people's health in general and develops chemoresistance in particular. Aim: The aim of this work is to study the practice of anti-malarial self-medication in the city of Parakou and to identify the associated factors with this practice. Methods: This was a descriptive cross-sectional analytical survey that took place in the period from April 15 to June 24, 2017. Adults who reported having had malaria symptoms in the last 6 months before the survey and living in 9 neighbourhoods randomly selected in the city of Parakou were included. A structured questionnaire collected their self-medication habit, the drugs used, the supply places and the reasons for this practice. Data were analysed using the Epi-data 3.1 software. Results: Of the 335 respondents included in this study, 141 (42.09%) had self-medicated including 130 (38.81%) with anti-malarial drugs. Fever is the main symptom of malaria cited by respondents (129% or 38.51%) followed by headache (93% or 27.76%). The most commonly used anti-malarial drugs for self-medication are quinine (60% or 44.45%) followed by artemisinin-based combination therapy (46% or 34.07%). Eighty-seven respondents (66.92%) did not have a good knowledge of the drug dosage. Reasons for self-medication were mainly the high cost of consultation fees (99% or 54.10%) and good knowledge of one's illness (53% or 28.96%). Self-medication associated factors were fever (p = 0.04), non-prescription drugs supply in pharmacies (p < 0.
Scientific Reports
placental malaria has been associated with an immune tolerance phenomenon and a higher susceptibi... more placental malaria has been associated with an immune tolerance phenomenon and a higher susceptibility to malaria infection during infancy. HLA-G is involved in fetal maternal immune tolerance by inhibiting maternal immunity. During infections HLA-G can be involved in immune escape of pathogens by creating a tolerogenic environment. Recent studies have shown an association between the risk of malaria and HLA-G at both genetic and protein levels. Moreover, women with placental malaria have a higher probability of giving birth to children exhibiting high sHLA-G, independently of their own level during pregnancy. Our aim was to explore the association between the level of maternal soluble HLA-G and the risk of malaria infection in their newborns. Here, 400 pregnant women and their children were actively followed-up during 24 months. The results show a significant association between the level of sHLA-G at the first antenatal visit and the time to first malaria infection during infancy adjusted to the risk of exposure to vector bites (aHR = 1.02, 95%CI [1.01-1.03], p = 0.014). The level of sHLA-G is a significant predictor of the occurrence of malaria infection during infancy consistent with the hypothesis that mother sHLA-G could be a biomarker of malaria susceptibility in children. Children born to mother with placental malaria (PM) seem to have a shorter delay of occurrence of the first malaria infection 1-4. This phenomenon is referred as immune tolerance (IT) that may be due to modifications of the newborn immune system development involving at least some cytokines production in cord blood 5. These modifications may induce differential immune responses involving IL10 and Interferon-γ during infancy 6. A similar phenomenon was described in cases of filariasis infection during pregnancy 7,8. It has been shown that children born to mothers with PM were also at an increased risk for non-malarial fever 9. Moreover, a recent result shows that children born to mothers with PM tend to have an increased risk for the first malaria attack but not for subsequent ones 10. These observations highlight that it is a very complex phenomenon that could imply immunity to a broader sense, not specific to malaria infection and not only related to PM infection. Human leucocyte antigen-G (HLA-G) is an immune-modulatory molecule that plays a crucial role in materno-foetal tolerance during pregnancy 11,12 by interacting with immune cells of both innate and adaptive
The Lancet Infectious Diseases
Background Efforts to quantify the global burden of enteric fever are valuable for understanding ... more Background Efforts to quantify the global burden of enteric fever are valuable for understanding the health lost and the large-scale spatial distribution of the disease. We present the estimates of typhoid and paratyphoid fever burden from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, and the approach taken to produce them. Methods For this systematic analysis we broke down the relative contributions of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers by country, year, and age, and analysed trends in incidence and mortality. We modelled the combined incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers and split these total cases proportionally between typhoid and paratyphoid fevers using aetiological proportion models. We estimated deaths using vital registration data for countries with sufficiently high data completeness and using a natural history approach for other locations. We also estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for typhoid and paratyphoid fevers. Findings Globally, 14•3 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 12•5-16•3) cases of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers occurred in 2017, a 44•6% (42•2-47•0) decline from 25•9 million (22•0-29•9) in 1990. Age-standardised incidence rates declined by 54•9% (53•4-56•5), from 439•2 (376•7-507•7) per 100 000 person-years in 1990, to 197•8 (172•0-226•2) per 100 000 person-years in 2017. In 2017, Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi caused 76•3% (71•8-80•5) of cases of enteric fever. We estimated a global case fatality of 0•95% (0•54-1•53) in 2017, with higher case fatality estimates among children and older adults, and among those living in lower-income countries. We therefore estimated 135•9 thousand (76•9-218•9) deaths from typhoid and paratyphoid fever globally in 2017, a 41•0% (33•6-48•3) decline from 230•5 thousand (131•2-372•6) in 1990. Overall, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers were responsible for 9•8 million (5•6-15•8) DALYs in 2017, down 43•0% (35•5-50•6) from 17•2 million (9•9-27•8) DALYs in 1990. Interpretation Despite notable progress, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers remain major causes of disability and death, with billions of people likely to be exposed to the pathogens. Although improvements in water and sanitation remain essential, increased vaccine use (including with typhoid conjugate vaccines that are effective in infants and young children and protective for longer periods) and improved data and surveillance to inform vaccine rollout are likely to drive the greatest improvements in the global burden of the disease. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
The Lancet Respiratory Medicine
Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing... more Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.
The Lancet Neurology
Background Acute meningitis has a high case-fatality rate and survivors can have severe lifelong ... more Background Acute meningitis has a high case-fatality rate and survivors can have severe lifelong disability. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of global meningitis burden that could help to guide introduction, continuation, and ongoing development of vaccines and treatment programmes. Methods The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2016 study estimated meningitis burden due to one of four types of cause: pneumococcal, meningococcal, Haemophilus influenzae type b, and a residual category of other causes. Cause-specific mortality estimates were generated via cause of death ensemble modelling of vital registration and verbal autopsy data that were subject to standardised data processing algorithms. Deaths were multiplied by the GBD standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost, the mortality component of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A systematic analysis of relevant publications and hospital and claims data was used to estimate meningitis incidence via a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Meningitis deaths and cases were split between causes with meta-regressions of aetiological proportions of mortality and incidence, respectively. Probabilities of long-term impairment by cause of meningitis were applied to survivors and used to estimate years of life lived with disability (YLDs). We assessed the relationship between burden metrics and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of development based on fertility, income, and education. Findings Global meningitis deaths decreased by 21•0% from 1990 to 2016, from 403 012 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 319 426-458 514) to 318 400 (265 218-408 705). Incident cases globally increased from 2•50 million (95% UI 2•19-2•91) in 1990 to 2•82 million (2•46-3•31) in 2016. Meningitis mortality and incidence were closely related to SDI. The highest mortality rates and incidence rates were found in the peri-Sahelian countries that comprise the African meningitis belt, with six of the ten countries with the largest number of cases and deaths being located within this region. Haemophilus influenzae type b was the most common cause of incident meningitis in 1990, at 780 070 cases (95% UI 613 585-978 219) globally, but decreased the most (-49•1%) to become the least common cause in 2016, with 397 297 cases (291 076-533 662). Meningococcus was the leading cause of meningitis mortality in 1990 (192 833 deaths [95% UI 153 358-221 503] globally), whereas other meningitis was the leading cause for both deaths (136 423 [112 682-178 022]) and incident cases (1•25 million [1•06-1•49]) in 2016. Pneumococcus caused the largest number of YLDs (634 458 [444 787-839 749]) in 2016, owing to its more severe long-term effects on survivors. Globally in 2016, 1•48 million (1•04-1•96) YLDs were due to meningitis compared with 21•87 million (18•20-28•28) DALYs, indicating that the contribution of mortality to meningitis burden is far greater than the contribution of disabling outcomes. Interpretation Meningitis burden remains high and progress lags substantially behind that of other vaccinepreventable diseases. Particular attention should be given to developing vaccines with broader coverage against the causes of meningitis, making these vaccines affordable in the most affected countries, improving vaccine uptake, improving access to low-cost diagnostics and therapeutics, and improving support for disabled survivors. Substantial uncertainty remains around pathogenic causes and risk factors for meningitis. Ongoing, active cause-specific surveillance of meningitis is crucial to continue and to improve monitoring of meningitis burdens and trends throughout the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
The Lancet
Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to... more Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49•4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46•4-52•0). The TFR decreased from 4•7 livebirths (4•5-4•9) to 2•4 livebirths (2•2-2•5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83•8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197•2% (193•3-200•8) since 1950, from 2•6 billion (2•5-2•6) to 7•6 billion (7•4-7•9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2•0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1•1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2•5% in 1963 to 0•7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2•7%. The global average age increased from 26•6 years in 1950 to 32•1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59•9% to 65•3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1•0 livebirths (95% UI 0•9-1•2) in Cyprus to a high of 7•1 livebirths (6•8-7•4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0•08 livebirths (0•07-0•09) in South Korea to 2•4 livebirths (2•2-2•6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0•3 livebirths (0•3-0•4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3•1 livebirths (3•0-3•2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2•0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.
The Lancet
Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Dev... more Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from…
*PSAC: Pre-School Aged Children, **SAC: School Aged Children.</p
Nature Medicine, 2020
A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experie... more A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, poli...
Lancet (London, England), Jan 7, 2015
Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and year... more Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally...
Parasitology Research, 2022
Among the Plasmodium species that infect humans, P. falciparum has been largely studied in malari... more Among the Plasmodium species that infect humans, P. falciparum has been largely studied in malaria endemic areas. However, P. malariae infection is less documented among the human population. This study aimed to monitor the prevalence and distribution of P. malariae in Southern Benin. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in rural localities in the Ouidah-Kpomasse-Tori Bossito (OKT) health district in Southern Benin from June to October 2019. Socio-demographic data were collected using a questionnaire, while malaria infection data were obtained on the one hand by microscopy diagnosis and, on the other, by nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Based on microscopy, the prevalence of P. malariae mono-infection and coinfection of P. falciparum, P. malariae was respectively 2.3% and 1.2% in the OKT health district. This prevalence was higher (P < 0.01) than that reported by Damien et al. (2010) 10 years ago in the same study area with 0.7% and 0.3% of P. malariae and P. falciparum/P. malariae, respectively. Based on PCR analysis, P. malariae prevalence was 14.1%, including 5.2% of mono-infection and 8.9% of mixed infection with P. falciparum. Sub-microscopic Plasmodium infections were high (30.6%) and more pronounced in older participants (>20 years). The present study revealed that P. malariae increased in the OKT health district with a high prevalence of submicroscopic infection. Since our results provide valuable evidence of increasing P. malariae infection, the National Malaria Control Programs (NMCPs) must consider P. malariae when designing future measures for effective control and malaria treatment.
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Apr 17, 2020
Nature Medicine
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the pa... more An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
Nature Medicine, 2020
A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experie... more A double burden of malnutrition occurs when individuals, household members or communities experience both undernutrition and overweight. Here, we show geospatial estimates of overweight and wasting prevalence among children under 5 years of age in 105 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017 and aggregate these to policy-relevant administrative units. Wasting decreased overall across LMICs between 2000 and 2017, from 8.4% (62.3 (55.1–70.8) million) to 6.4% (58.3 (47.6–70.7) million), but is predicted to remain above the World Health Organization’s Global Nutrition Target of <5% in over half of LMICs by 2025. Prevalence of overweight increased from 5.2% (30 (22.8–38.5) million) in 2000 to 6.0% (55.5 (44.8–67.9) million) children aged under 5 years in 2017. Areas most affected by double burden of malnutrition were located in Indonesia, Thailand, southeastern China, Botswana, Cameroon and central Nigeria. Our estimates provide a new perspective to researchers, poli...
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Background Despite several years of school-based MDA implementation, STH infections remain an imp... more Background Despite several years of school-based MDA implementation, STH infections remain an important public health problem in Benin, with a country-wide prevalence of 20% in 2015. The DeWorm3 study is designed to assess the feasibility of using community-based MDA with albendazole to interrupt the transmission of STH, through a series of cluster-randomized trials in Benin, India and Malawi. We used the pre-treatment baseline survey data to describe and analyze the factors associated with STH infection in Comé, the study site of the DeWorm3 project in Benin. These data will improve understanding of the challenges that need to be addressed in order to eliminate STH as a public health problem in Benin. Methods Between March and April 2018, the prevalence of STH (hookworm spp., Ascaris and Trichuris trichiura) was assessed by Kato-Katz in stool samples collected from 6,153 residents in the community of Comé, Benin using a stratified random sampling procedure. A standardized survey qu...
Advances in Infectious Diseases
Introduction: Self-medication is a common practice in Benin. It has many consequences on people's... more Introduction: Self-medication is a common practice in Benin. It has many consequences on people's health in general and develops chemoresistance in particular. Aim: The aim of this work is to study the practice of anti-malarial self-medication in the city of Parakou and to identify the associated factors with this practice. Methods: This was a descriptive cross-sectional analytical survey that took place in the period from April 15 to June 24, 2017. Adults who reported having had malaria symptoms in the last 6 months before the survey and living in 9 neighbourhoods randomly selected in the city of Parakou were included. A structured questionnaire collected their self-medication habit, the drugs used, the supply places and the reasons for this practice. Data were analysed using the Epi-data 3.1 software. Results: Of the 335 respondents included in this study, 141 (42.09%) had self-medicated including 130 (38.81%) with anti-malarial drugs. Fever is the main symptom of malaria cited by respondents (129% or 38.51%) followed by headache (93% or 27.76%). The most commonly used anti-malarial drugs for self-medication are quinine (60% or 44.45%) followed by artemisinin-based combination therapy (46% or 34.07%). Eighty-seven respondents (66.92%) did not have a good knowledge of the drug dosage. Reasons for self-medication were mainly the high cost of consultation fees (99% or 54.10%) and good knowledge of one's illness (53% or 28.96%). Self-medication associated factors were fever (p = 0.04), non-prescription drugs supply in pharmacies (p < 0.
Scientific Reports
placental malaria has been associated with an immune tolerance phenomenon and a higher susceptibi... more placental malaria has been associated with an immune tolerance phenomenon and a higher susceptibility to malaria infection during infancy. HLA-G is involved in fetal maternal immune tolerance by inhibiting maternal immunity. During infections HLA-G can be involved in immune escape of pathogens by creating a tolerogenic environment. Recent studies have shown an association between the risk of malaria and HLA-G at both genetic and protein levels. Moreover, women with placental malaria have a higher probability of giving birth to children exhibiting high sHLA-G, independently of their own level during pregnancy. Our aim was to explore the association between the level of maternal soluble HLA-G and the risk of malaria infection in their newborns. Here, 400 pregnant women and their children were actively followed-up during 24 months. The results show a significant association between the level of sHLA-G at the first antenatal visit and the time to first malaria infection during infancy adjusted to the risk of exposure to vector bites (aHR = 1.02, 95%CI [1.01-1.03], p = 0.014). The level of sHLA-G is a significant predictor of the occurrence of malaria infection during infancy consistent with the hypothesis that mother sHLA-G could be a biomarker of malaria susceptibility in children. Children born to mother with placental malaria (PM) seem to have a shorter delay of occurrence of the first malaria infection 1-4. This phenomenon is referred as immune tolerance (IT) that may be due to modifications of the newborn immune system development involving at least some cytokines production in cord blood 5. These modifications may induce differential immune responses involving IL10 and Interferon-γ during infancy 6. A similar phenomenon was described in cases of filariasis infection during pregnancy 7,8. It has been shown that children born to mothers with PM were also at an increased risk for non-malarial fever 9. Moreover, a recent result shows that children born to mothers with PM tend to have an increased risk for the first malaria attack but not for subsequent ones 10. These observations highlight that it is a very complex phenomenon that could imply immunity to a broader sense, not specific to malaria infection and not only related to PM infection. Human leucocyte antigen-G (HLA-G) is an immune-modulatory molecule that plays a crucial role in materno-foetal tolerance during pregnancy 11,12 by interacting with immune cells of both innate and adaptive
The Lancet Infectious Diseases
Background Efforts to quantify the global burden of enteric fever are valuable for understanding ... more Background Efforts to quantify the global burden of enteric fever are valuable for understanding the health lost and the large-scale spatial distribution of the disease. We present the estimates of typhoid and paratyphoid fever burden from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, and the approach taken to produce them. Methods For this systematic analysis we broke down the relative contributions of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers by country, year, and age, and analysed trends in incidence and mortality. We modelled the combined incidence of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers and split these total cases proportionally between typhoid and paratyphoid fevers using aetiological proportion models. We estimated deaths using vital registration data for countries with sufficiently high data completeness and using a natural history approach for other locations. We also estimated disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for typhoid and paratyphoid fevers. Findings Globally, 14•3 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 12•5-16•3) cases of typhoid and paratyphoid fevers occurred in 2017, a 44•6% (42•2-47•0) decline from 25•9 million (22•0-29•9) in 1990. Age-standardised incidence rates declined by 54•9% (53•4-56•5), from 439•2 (376•7-507•7) per 100 000 person-years in 1990, to 197•8 (172•0-226•2) per 100 000 person-years in 2017. In 2017, Salmonella enterica serotype Typhi caused 76•3% (71•8-80•5) of cases of enteric fever. We estimated a global case fatality of 0•95% (0•54-1•53) in 2017, with higher case fatality estimates among children and older adults, and among those living in lower-income countries. We therefore estimated 135•9 thousand (76•9-218•9) deaths from typhoid and paratyphoid fever globally in 2017, a 41•0% (33•6-48•3) decline from 230•5 thousand (131•2-372•6) in 1990. Overall, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers were responsible for 9•8 million (5•6-15•8) DALYs in 2017, down 43•0% (35•5-50•6) from 17•2 million (9•9-27•8) DALYs in 1990. Interpretation Despite notable progress, typhoid and paratyphoid fevers remain major causes of disability and death, with billions of people likely to be exposed to the pathogens. Although improvements in water and sanitation remain essential, increased vaccine use (including with typhoid conjugate vaccines that are effective in infants and young children and protective for longer periods) and improved data and surveillance to inform vaccine rollout are likely to drive the greatest improvements in the global burden of the disease. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
The Lancet Respiratory Medicine
Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing... more Take-down policy If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.
The Lancet Neurology
Background Acute meningitis has a high case-fatality rate and survivors can have severe lifelong ... more Background Acute meningitis has a high case-fatality rate and survivors can have severe lifelong disability. We aimed to provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of global meningitis burden that could help to guide introduction, continuation, and ongoing development of vaccines and treatment programmes. Methods The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2016 study estimated meningitis burden due to one of four types of cause: pneumococcal, meningococcal, Haemophilus influenzae type b, and a residual category of other causes. Cause-specific mortality estimates were generated via cause of death ensemble modelling of vital registration and verbal autopsy data that were subject to standardised data processing algorithms. Deaths were multiplied by the GBD standard life expectancy at age of death to estimate years of life lost, the mortality component of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A systematic analysis of relevant publications and hospital and claims data was used to estimate meningitis incidence via a Bayesian meta-regression tool. Meningitis deaths and cases were split between causes with meta-regressions of aetiological proportions of mortality and incidence, respectively. Probabilities of long-term impairment by cause of meningitis were applied to survivors and used to estimate years of life lived with disability (YLDs). We assessed the relationship between burden metrics and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure of development based on fertility, income, and education. Findings Global meningitis deaths decreased by 21•0% from 1990 to 2016, from 403 012 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 319 426-458 514) to 318 400 (265 218-408 705). Incident cases globally increased from 2•50 million (95% UI 2•19-2•91) in 1990 to 2•82 million (2•46-3•31) in 2016. Meningitis mortality and incidence were closely related to SDI. The highest mortality rates and incidence rates were found in the peri-Sahelian countries that comprise the African meningitis belt, with six of the ten countries with the largest number of cases and deaths being located within this region. Haemophilus influenzae type b was the most common cause of incident meningitis in 1990, at 780 070 cases (95% UI 613 585-978 219) globally, but decreased the most (-49•1%) to become the least common cause in 2016, with 397 297 cases (291 076-533 662). Meningococcus was the leading cause of meningitis mortality in 1990 (192 833 deaths [95% UI 153 358-221 503] globally), whereas other meningitis was the leading cause for both deaths (136 423 [112 682-178 022]) and incident cases (1•25 million [1•06-1•49]) in 2016. Pneumococcus caused the largest number of YLDs (634 458 [444 787-839 749]) in 2016, owing to its more severe long-term effects on survivors. Globally in 2016, 1•48 million (1•04-1•96) YLDs were due to meningitis compared with 21•87 million (18•20-28•28) DALYs, indicating that the contribution of mortality to meningitis burden is far greater than the contribution of disabling outcomes. Interpretation Meningitis burden remains high and progress lags substantially behind that of other vaccinepreventable diseases. Particular attention should be given to developing vaccines with broader coverage against the causes of meningitis, making these vaccines affordable in the most affected countries, improving vaccine uptake, improving access to low-cost diagnostics and therapeutics, and improving support for disabled survivors. Substantial uncertainty remains around pathogenic causes and risk factors for meningitis. Ongoing, active cause-specific surveillance of meningitis is crucial to continue and to improve monitoring of meningitis burdens and trends throughout the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
The Lancet
Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to... more Background Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10-54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10-14 years and 50-54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15-19 years and 45-49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49•4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46•4-52•0). The TFR decreased from 4•7 livebirths (4•5-4•9) to 2•4 livebirths (2•2-2•5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10-19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34-40) to 22 livebirths (19-24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83•8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197•2% (193•3-200•8) since 1950, from 2•6 billion (2•5-2•6) to 7•6 billion (7•4-7•9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2•0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1•1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2•5% in 1963 to 0•7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2•7%. The global average age increased from 26•6 years in 1950 to 32•1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15-64 years) increased from 59•9% to 65•3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1•0 livebirths (95% UI 0•9-1•2) in Cyprus to a high of 7•1 livebirths (6•8-7•4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0•08 livebirths (0•07-0•09) in South Korea to 2•4 livebirths (2•2-2•6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0•3 livebirths (0•3-0•4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3•1 livebirths (3•0-3•2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2•0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger.
The Lancet
Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Dev... more Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of "leaving no one behind", it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990-2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4-67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6-14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1-86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from…