Fabio Micale - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Fabio Micale

Research paper thumbnail of Risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture

Research paper thumbnail of Impacts and adaptation to climate change of crops in Europe

Research paper thumbnail of Crowdsourced data reveal threats to household food security in near real-time during COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic and related lockdown measures have disrupted food systems globally, leading... more The COVID-19 pandemic and related lockdown measures have disrupted food systems globally, leading to fluctuations in the prices of some food commodities, from local to national levels. Yet detailed data-driven evidence of the extent, timing, and localization of the impact on food security are rarely available quickly enough or with sufficient granularity to guide policy responses. Several institutions regularly collect information on commodity prices in low-and middle-income countries (including FAO GIEWS-FPMA, World Food Programme Vulnerability Analysis and Monitoring [WFP-VAM], and the IFPRI Food Security Portal). But they are often unable to generate actionable data on sudden food system disruptions, and the time lag from data acquisition to sharing of data-driven intelligence erodes the potential for rapid response. Further, available price data are often limited in scope because they are monitored at specific markets and at highly coarse spatiotemporal scales (that is, monthly and at the [sub]national level). Therefore, they do not provide sufficient information to monitor and contextualize local (and extreme) changes in food prices or the impact on local livelihoods. Without consistent and concise data on food prices and market performance at local levels, policies, interventions, and responses to emergencies or shocks (such as COVID-19) are likely to be skewed, mostly to the disadvantage of poor rural and remote communities.

Research paper thumbnail of Recent temporal trend in modelled soil water deficit over Europe driven by meteorological observations

International Journal of Climatology, 2016

Research paper thumbnail of Combining satellite derived phenology with climate data for climate change impact assessment

Global and Planetary Change, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of An extensible model library for generating wind speed data

Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 2009

Research paper thumbnail of A novel soil moisture-based drought severity index (DSI) combining water deficit magnitude and frequency

Hydrological Processes, 2015

A correct identification of drought events over vegetated lands can be achieved by detecting thos... more A correct identification of drought events over vegetated lands can be achieved by detecting those soil moisture conditions that are both unusually dry compared with the 'normal' state and causing severe water stress to the vegetation. In this paper, we propose a novel drought index that accounts for the mutual occurrence of these two conditions by means of a multiplicative approach of a water deficit factor and a dryness probability factor. The former quantifies the actual level of plant water stress, whereas the latter verifies that the current water deficit condition is unusual for the specific site and period. The methodology was tested over Europe between 1995 and 2012 using soil moisture maps simulated by Lisflood, a distributed hydrological precipitation-runoff model. The proposed drought severity index (DSI) demonstrates to be able to detect the main drought events observed over Europe in the last two decades, as well as to provide a reasonable estimation of both extension and magnitude of these events. It also displays an improved adaptability to the range of possible conditions encountered in the experiment as compared with currently available indices based on the sole magnitude or frequency. The results show that, for the analyzed period, the most extended drought events observed over Europe were the ones in

Research paper thumbnail of Legal Notice

EUR 24744 EN- 2011The mission of the JRC-IES is to provide scientific-technical support to the Eu... more EUR 24744 EN- 2011The mission of the JRC-IES is to provide scientific-technical support to the European Union’s policies for the protection and sustainable development of the European and global environment. European Commission

Research paper thumbnail of Change impacts and adaptation in Europe, focusing on extremes and adaptation until the 2030s - PESETA-3 project, final sector report on Task 9: Droughts

Research paper thumbnail of The European Drought Observatory (EDO) - A European Contribution to a Global Drought Information System (GDIS)

Research paper thumbnail of Developing a European Drought Observatory for Monitoring, Assessing and Forecasting Droughts across the European Continent

Over the last decades many European countries have repeatedly been affected by droughts, resultin... more Over the last decades many European countries have repeatedly been affected by droughts, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage. Climate change studies further indicate a trend towards increasing climate variability in many parts of the world, most likely resulting in more frequent drought occurrences also in Europe. The need for an adequate monitoring and management is, therefore, evident and has recently triggered action at different political and management levels.

Research paper thumbnail of Food Price Crowdsourcing Africa

Research paper thumbnail of Global and continental changes of arid areas using the FAO Aridity Index over the periods 1951-1980 and 1981-2010

An increase in arid areas and progressing land degradation are two of the main consequences of gl... more An increase in arid areas and progressing land degradation are two of the main consequences of global climate change. In the 2nd edition of the World Atlas of Desertification (WAD), published by the United Nation Environment Program (UNEP) in 1997, a global aridity map was presented. This map was based on the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Aridity Index (AI) that takes into account the annual ratio between precipitation (RR) and Potential Evapo-Transpiration (PET). According to the long-term mean value of this ratio, climate is therefore classified in hyper-arid (<0.05), arid (0.05-0.2), semi-arid (0.2-0.5), dry sub-humid (0.5-0.65), and humid (>0.65); a special case are cold climates, which occur if the mean annual PET is below 400 mm. In the framework of the 3rd edition of the WAD, we computed new global aridity maps to improve and update the old version that was based on a single dataset (CRU dataset, Climate Research Unit of University of East Anglia) related to the 1951-80 period only. We computed the AI on two different time intervals (1951-80 and 1981-2010) in order to account for shifts in classes between the two periods and we used two different datasets: PET from CRU (version 3.2), and precipitation from the global 0.5˚x0.5˚gridded monthly precipitation of the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). We used the GPCC Full Data Reanalysis Version 6.0, which showed a high reliability during many quality checks and is based on more stations than the CRU's precipitation counterpart. The results show that the "arid areas" (i.e. AI <0.5) globally increased from 28.4% to 29.6% and in Northern Hemisphere the cold climate areas decreased from 26.6% to 25.4%. Comparing the aridity maps of the two periods, the areas which most remarkably moved to lower AI values ("more arid" conditions) are

Research paper thumbnail of Post-sampling crowdsourced data to allow reliable statistical inference: the case of food price indices in Nigeria

arXiv: Methodology, 2020

Sound policy and decision making in developing countries is often limited by the lack of timely a... more Sound policy and decision making in developing countries is often limited by the lack of timely and reliable data. Crowdsourced data may provide a valuable alternative for data collection and analysis, e. g. in remote and insecure areas or of poor accessibility where traditional methods are difficult or costly. However, crowdsourced data are not directly usable to draw sound statistical inference. Indeed, its use involves statistical problems because data do not obey any formal sampling design and may also suffer from various non-sampling errors. To overcome this, we propose the use of a special form of post-stratification with which crowdsourced data are reweighted prior their use in an inferential context. An example in Nigeria illustrates the applicability of the method.

Research paper thumbnail of Adaptation of WOFOST model from CGMS to Romanian conditions

This preliminary study is an inventory of the main resources and difficulties in adaptation of th... more This preliminary study is an inventory of the main resources and difficulties in adaptation of the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) used by Agri4cast unit of IPSC from Joint Research Centre (JRC) Ispra of European Commission to conditions of Romania. In contrast with the original model calibrated mainly with statistical average yields at national level, for local calibration of the model the statistical yields at lower administrative units (macroregion or county) must be used. In addition, for winter crops, the start of simulation in the new system will be in the autumn of the previous year. The start of simulation (and emergence day) in the genuine system is 1 of January of the current year and the existing calibration was meant to provide a compensation system for this technical physiological delay. Proposed approach provides a better initialisation of the water balance (emergence occurs after start of simulation), as well as a better account for impact of wintering conditions...

Research paper thumbnail of Winter wheat yield estimation for Romania, based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data available on MARSOP site

The model outputs from extranet MARSOP of MARS unit from JRC-ISPRA were not designed for a direct... more The model outputs from extranet MARSOP of MARS unit from JRC-ISPRA were not designed for a direct use as yield forecast. This study investigated if there is any simple possibility for an external user to obtain early yield estimation for different regions of Romania, based on remote sensing data, also available on this site. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) calculated from SPOT Vegetation data available on MARSOP site explained for the southern half of Romania more than 60% of the variation in the wheat yields from EUROSTAT database. Exclusion of an outlier (year 2007) improved the forecast capacity (R2 = 0.8 at national level) of the NDVI from the beginning and mid April. In some regions, quadratic regressions were able to provide a better fit. The simulated leaf area index and relative soil moisture proved to be helpful for an earlier interpretation of a year as a possible outlier.

Research paper thumbnail of Using crowd-sourced data for real-time monitoring of food prices during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from a pilot project in northern Nigeria

Research paper thumbnail of Priority questions in multidisciplinary drought research

Climate Research

Full affiliations in Supplement 1 at www. int-res. com/ articles/ suppl/ c075 p241 _ supp. pdf AB... more Full affiliations in Supplement 1 at www. int-res. com/ articles/ suppl/ c075 p241 _ supp. pdf ABSTRACT: Addressing timely and relevant questions across a multitude of spatio-temporal scales, state-of-the-art interdisciplinary drought research will likely increase in importance under projected climate change. Given the complexity of the various direct and indirect causes and consequences of a drier world, scientific tasks need to be coordinated efficiently. Drought-related research endeavors ranging from individual projects to global initiatives therefore require prioritization. Here, we present 60 priority questions for optimizing future drought research. This topical catalogue reflects the experience of 65 scholars from 21 countries and almost 20 fields of research in both natural sciences and the humanities. The set of drought-related questions primarily covers drought monitoring, impacts, forecasting, climatology, adaptation, as well as planning and policy. The questions highlight the increasingly important role of remote sensing techniques in drought monitoring, importance of drought forecasting and understanding the relationships between drought parameters and drought impacts, but also challenges of drought adaptation and preparedness policies.

Research paper thumbnail of Activities realized within the Service Level Agreement between JRC and EFSA, as a support of the FATE Working Group of EFSA PPR in support of the revision of the guidance document Persistence in Soil

EFSA Supporting Publications, 2010

Abstract Within the frame of the Collaboration Agreement signed the 10th November 2008 between th... more Abstract Within the frame of the Collaboration Agreement signed the 10th November 2008 between the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), a specific Service Level Agreement (SLA/EFSA-JRC/2008/01) supporting the activities of ...

Research paper thumbnail of Report on the activities realized in 2010 within the Service Level Agreement between JRC and EFSA, as a support of the FATE and Ecoregions working groups of EFSA PPR (SLA EFSA‐JRC/2008/01)

EFSA Supporting Publications, 2011

Research paper thumbnail of Risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture

Research paper thumbnail of Impacts and adaptation to climate change of crops in Europe

Research paper thumbnail of Crowdsourced data reveal threats to household food security in near real-time during COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic and related lockdown measures have disrupted food systems globally, leading... more The COVID-19 pandemic and related lockdown measures have disrupted food systems globally, leading to fluctuations in the prices of some food commodities, from local to national levels. Yet detailed data-driven evidence of the extent, timing, and localization of the impact on food security are rarely available quickly enough or with sufficient granularity to guide policy responses. Several institutions regularly collect information on commodity prices in low-and middle-income countries (including FAO GIEWS-FPMA, World Food Programme Vulnerability Analysis and Monitoring [WFP-VAM], and the IFPRI Food Security Portal). But they are often unable to generate actionable data on sudden food system disruptions, and the time lag from data acquisition to sharing of data-driven intelligence erodes the potential for rapid response. Further, available price data are often limited in scope because they are monitored at specific markets and at highly coarse spatiotemporal scales (that is, monthly and at the [sub]national level). Therefore, they do not provide sufficient information to monitor and contextualize local (and extreme) changes in food prices or the impact on local livelihoods. Without consistent and concise data on food prices and market performance at local levels, policies, interventions, and responses to emergencies or shocks (such as COVID-19) are likely to be skewed, mostly to the disadvantage of poor rural and remote communities.

Research paper thumbnail of Recent temporal trend in modelled soil water deficit over Europe driven by meteorological observations

International Journal of Climatology, 2016

Research paper thumbnail of Combining satellite derived phenology with climate data for climate change impact assessment

Global and Planetary Change, 2012

Research paper thumbnail of An extensible model library for generating wind speed data

Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 2009

Research paper thumbnail of A novel soil moisture-based drought severity index (DSI) combining water deficit magnitude and frequency

Hydrological Processes, 2015

A correct identification of drought events over vegetated lands can be achieved by detecting thos... more A correct identification of drought events over vegetated lands can be achieved by detecting those soil moisture conditions that are both unusually dry compared with the 'normal' state and causing severe water stress to the vegetation. In this paper, we propose a novel drought index that accounts for the mutual occurrence of these two conditions by means of a multiplicative approach of a water deficit factor and a dryness probability factor. The former quantifies the actual level of plant water stress, whereas the latter verifies that the current water deficit condition is unusual for the specific site and period. The methodology was tested over Europe between 1995 and 2012 using soil moisture maps simulated by Lisflood, a distributed hydrological precipitation-runoff model. The proposed drought severity index (DSI) demonstrates to be able to detect the main drought events observed over Europe in the last two decades, as well as to provide a reasonable estimation of both extension and magnitude of these events. It also displays an improved adaptability to the range of possible conditions encountered in the experiment as compared with currently available indices based on the sole magnitude or frequency. The results show that, for the analyzed period, the most extended drought events observed over Europe were the ones in

Research paper thumbnail of Legal Notice

EUR 24744 EN- 2011The mission of the JRC-IES is to provide scientific-technical support to the Eu... more EUR 24744 EN- 2011The mission of the JRC-IES is to provide scientific-technical support to the European Union’s policies for the protection and sustainable development of the European and global environment. European Commission

Research paper thumbnail of Change impacts and adaptation in Europe, focusing on extremes and adaptation until the 2030s - PESETA-3 project, final sector report on Task 9: Droughts

Research paper thumbnail of The European Drought Observatory (EDO) - A European Contribution to a Global Drought Information System (GDIS)

Research paper thumbnail of Developing a European Drought Observatory for Monitoring, Assessing and Forecasting Droughts across the European Continent

Over the last decades many European countries have repeatedly been affected by droughts, resultin... more Over the last decades many European countries have repeatedly been affected by droughts, resulting in considerable ecological and economic damage. Climate change studies further indicate a trend towards increasing climate variability in many parts of the world, most likely resulting in more frequent drought occurrences also in Europe. The need for an adequate monitoring and management is, therefore, evident and has recently triggered action at different political and management levels.

Research paper thumbnail of Food Price Crowdsourcing Africa

Research paper thumbnail of Global and continental changes of arid areas using the FAO Aridity Index over the periods 1951-1980 and 1981-2010

An increase in arid areas and progressing land degradation are two of the main consequences of gl... more An increase in arid areas and progressing land degradation are two of the main consequences of global climate change. In the 2nd edition of the World Atlas of Desertification (WAD), published by the United Nation Environment Program (UNEP) in 1997, a global aridity map was presented. This map was based on the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Aridity Index (AI) that takes into account the annual ratio between precipitation (RR) and Potential Evapo-Transpiration (PET). According to the long-term mean value of this ratio, climate is therefore classified in hyper-arid (<0.05), arid (0.05-0.2), semi-arid (0.2-0.5), dry sub-humid (0.5-0.65), and humid (>0.65); a special case are cold climates, which occur if the mean annual PET is below 400 mm. In the framework of the 3rd edition of the WAD, we computed new global aridity maps to improve and update the old version that was based on a single dataset (CRU dataset, Climate Research Unit of University of East Anglia) related to the 1951-80 period only. We computed the AI on two different time intervals (1951-80 and 1981-2010) in order to account for shifts in classes between the two periods and we used two different datasets: PET from CRU (version 3.2), and precipitation from the global 0.5˚x0.5˚gridded monthly precipitation of the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) of the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). We used the GPCC Full Data Reanalysis Version 6.0, which showed a high reliability during many quality checks and is based on more stations than the CRU's precipitation counterpart. The results show that the "arid areas" (i.e. AI <0.5) globally increased from 28.4% to 29.6% and in Northern Hemisphere the cold climate areas decreased from 26.6% to 25.4%. Comparing the aridity maps of the two periods, the areas which most remarkably moved to lower AI values ("more arid" conditions) are

Research paper thumbnail of Post-sampling crowdsourced data to allow reliable statistical inference: the case of food price indices in Nigeria

arXiv: Methodology, 2020

Sound policy and decision making in developing countries is often limited by the lack of timely a... more Sound policy and decision making in developing countries is often limited by the lack of timely and reliable data. Crowdsourced data may provide a valuable alternative for data collection and analysis, e. g. in remote and insecure areas or of poor accessibility where traditional methods are difficult or costly. However, crowdsourced data are not directly usable to draw sound statistical inference. Indeed, its use involves statistical problems because data do not obey any formal sampling design and may also suffer from various non-sampling errors. To overcome this, we propose the use of a special form of post-stratification with which crowdsourced data are reweighted prior their use in an inferential context. An example in Nigeria illustrates the applicability of the method.

Research paper thumbnail of Adaptation of WOFOST model from CGMS to Romanian conditions

This preliminary study is an inventory of the main resources and difficulties in adaptation of th... more This preliminary study is an inventory of the main resources and difficulties in adaptation of the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) used by Agri4cast unit of IPSC from Joint Research Centre (JRC) Ispra of European Commission to conditions of Romania. In contrast with the original model calibrated mainly with statistical average yields at national level, for local calibration of the model the statistical yields at lower administrative units (macroregion or county) must be used. In addition, for winter crops, the start of simulation in the new system will be in the autumn of the previous year. The start of simulation (and emergence day) in the genuine system is 1 of January of the current year and the existing calibration was meant to provide a compensation system for this technical physiological delay. Proposed approach provides a better initialisation of the water balance (emergence occurs after start of simulation), as well as a better account for impact of wintering conditions...

Research paper thumbnail of Winter wheat yield estimation for Romania, based on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data available on MARSOP site

The model outputs from extranet MARSOP of MARS unit from JRC-ISPRA were not designed for a direct... more The model outputs from extranet MARSOP of MARS unit from JRC-ISPRA were not designed for a direct use as yield forecast. This study investigated if there is any simple possibility for an external user to obtain early yield estimation for different regions of Romania, based on remote sensing data, also available on this site. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) calculated from SPOT Vegetation data available on MARSOP site explained for the southern half of Romania more than 60% of the variation in the wheat yields from EUROSTAT database. Exclusion of an outlier (year 2007) improved the forecast capacity (R2 = 0.8 at national level) of the NDVI from the beginning and mid April. In some regions, quadratic regressions were able to provide a better fit. The simulated leaf area index and relative soil moisture proved to be helpful for an earlier interpretation of a year as a possible outlier.

Research paper thumbnail of Using crowd-sourced data for real-time monitoring of food prices during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from a pilot project in northern Nigeria

Research paper thumbnail of Priority questions in multidisciplinary drought research

Climate Research

Full affiliations in Supplement 1 at www. int-res. com/ articles/ suppl/ c075 p241 _ supp. pdf AB... more Full affiliations in Supplement 1 at www. int-res. com/ articles/ suppl/ c075 p241 _ supp. pdf ABSTRACT: Addressing timely and relevant questions across a multitude of spatio-temporal scales, state-of-the-art interdisciplinary drought research will likely increase in importance under projected climate change. Given the complexity of the various direct and indirect causes and consequences of a drier world, scientific tasks need to be coordinated efficiently. Drought-related research endeavors ranging from individual projects to global initiatives therefore require prioritization. Here, we present 60 priority questions for optimizing future drought research. This topical catalogue reflects the experience of 65 scholars from 21 countries and almost 20 fields of research in both natural sciences and the humanities. The set of drought-related questions primarily covers drought monitoring, impacts, forecasting, climatology, adaptation, as well as planning and policy. The questions highlight the increasingly important role of remote sensing techniques in drought monitoring, importance of drought forecasting and understanding the relationships between drought parameters and drought impacts, but also challenges of drought adaptation and preparedness policies.

Research paper thumbnail of Activities realized within the Service Level Agreement between JRC and EFSA, as a support of the FATE Working Group of EFSA PPR in support of the revision of the guidance document Persistence in Soil

EFSA Supporting Publications, 2010

Abstract Within the frame of the Collaboration Agreement signed the 10th November 2008 between th... more Abstract Within the frame of the Collaboration Agreement signed the 10th November 2008 between the Joint Research Centre (JRC) and the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), a specific Service Level Agreement (SLA/EFSA-JRC/2008/01) supporting the activities of ...

Research paper thumbnail of Report on the activities realized in 2010 within the Service Level Agreement between JRC and EFSA, as a support of the FATE and Ecoregions working groups of EFSA PPR (SLA EFSA‐JRC/2008/01)

EFSA Supporting Publications, 2011