Fabio Trojani - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Fabio Trojani
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
ABSTRACT Conventional tests of present-value models tend to over-reject the null of no predictabi... more ABSTRACT Conventional tests of present-value models tend to over-reject the null of no predictability, concluding that price-dividend ratio variations are due to both cash flow and discount rate shocks. We propose a nonparametric Monte Carlo testing method, which does not rely on distributional assumptions to aggregate the information from the time series of price-dividend ratios and dividend growth. We find evidence of return predictability, but no apparent evidence of dividend growth predictability, thus reconciling the diverging conclusions in the literature. Our findings are robust to the specification of the predictive information set and account for the intrinsic probability of detecting predictive relations by chance alone.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Journal of Econometrics, 2005
Applied Optimization, 2002
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Review of Financial Studies, 2006
Quantitative Finance, 2011
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2006
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2004
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2002
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2002
European Financial Management, 2002
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
ABSTRACT Conventional tests of present-value models tend to over-reject the null of no predictabi... more ABSTRACT Conventional tests of present-value models tend to over-reject the null of no predictability, concluding that price-dividend ratio variations are due to both cash flow and discount rate shocks. We propose a nonparametric Monte Carlo testing method, which does not rely on distributional assumptions to aggregate the information from the time series of price-dividend ratios and dividend growth. We find evidence of return predictability, but no apparent evidence of dividend growth predictability, thus reconciling the diverging conclusions in the literature. Our findings are robust to the specification of the predictive information set and account for the intrinsic probability of detecting predictive relations by chance alone.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Journal of Econometrics, 2005
Applied Optimization, 2002
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Review of Financial Studies, 2006
Quantitative Finance, 2011
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2006
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2004
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 2002
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2002
European Financial Management, 2002