Felix Preston - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Felix Preston

The task of decarbonization is essentially one of industrial policy, though not confined to the i... more The task of decarbonization is essentially one of industrial policy, though not confined to the industrial sector. Governments must develop national transformation strategies, build effective institutions and intervene in markets to create and withdraw rents while avoiding policy capture. z z In poor countries, the principal challenges are low levels of government capacity and a lack of economic resources. For rich countries the challenge is primarily political: governments must pursue policies that are discounted by their populations and confront powerful incumbent interests. z z Bundling mitigation with existing policy priorities and highlighting co-benefits provides governments with a way to manage political risk. However, rapid decarbonization requires governments to make emissions reduction a policy priority. z z Piloting provides an important way for governments to work with the private sector, demonstrate success, overcome opposition and avoid policy deadlock. As such, piloting is more than a technical exercise; it is a political project. z z The costs of low-carbon technologies are falling fast and the green economy is expanding. Increasingly, the key challenge for governments-of avoiding highcarbon lock-in-is one of strategic choice rather than affordability.

Ensuring access to climate-friendly technologies at affordable prices is a critical issue for int... more Ensuring access to climate-friendly technologies at affordable prices is a critical issue for international public policy - one that cuts across economic, legal, security, and geopolitical concerns. This report examines two issues: patent ownership of climate friendly technologies, and the rate of technology diffusion.

• There is growing optimism about the potential of the 'circular economy' (CE) as a new model for... more • There is growing optimism about the potential of the 'circular economy' (CE) as a new model for sustainable growth in developing countries. A CE is one in which products are recycled, repaired or reused rather than thrown away, and in which waste from one process becomes an input into other processes. In recent months there has been CE-related activity in countries as diverse as Laos, Rwanda and Colombia. • A CE strategy could help lower-income countries 'leapfrog' to a more sustainable development pathway that avoids locking in resource-intensive practices and infrastructure. But a stronger evidence base is needed to show how the agenda can deliver opportunities for industrialization, as well as addressing environmental insecurity. • Lower-income countries are in many ways more 'circular' than their developedeconomy counterparts-the question is how to turn this into a development opportunity. Much economic activity in lower-income countries revolves around sorting and reusing waste. However, higher-value, employment-generating opportunities for reuse and remanufacturing are yet to be captured. • The existence of circular activities in developing countries provides excellent political 'entry points', which could enable governments, the private sector, civil society and other actors to promote innovative economic models. The CE could provide a powerful narrative, helping to build momentum around a set of ideas that can be applied in and tailored to multiple sectors or cities. • There is a window of opportunity in which to align the efforts of development organizations and partner countries. Donors are exploring how the agenda should be aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Climate Agreement. Wider international cooperation on the CE could involve trade partnerships, regional hubs or pilot zones.

Each year, more than 4 billion tonnes of cement are produced, accounting for around 8 per cent of... more Each year, more than 4 billion tonnes of cement are produced, accounting for around 8 per cent of global CO2 emissions Making Concrete Change: Innovation in Low-carbon Cement and Concrete Executive Summary vi | #ConcreteChange all will need to be deployed at scale to meet the decarbonization challenge. Some of these solutions are well recognized and common to other sectors: for instance, the energy efficiency of cement plants can be increased, fossil fuels can be replaced with alternatives, and CO2 emitted can be captured and stored. The main focus of this report, however, is on those emissions mitigation solutions that require the transformation of cement and concrete and are thus unique to the sector. More than 50 per cent of cement sector emissions are intrinsically linked to the process for producing clinker, one of the main ingredients in cement. As the by-product of a chemical reaction, such emissions cannot be reduced simply by changing fuel sources or increasing the efficiency of cement plants. This report therefore focuses on the potential to blend clinker with alternative materials, and on the use of 'novel cements'-two levers that can reduce the need for clinker itself by lowering the proportion of clinker required in particular cement mixtures. Despite widespread acceptance among experts that these are critical, they have received far less policy focus. Well-known barriers stand in the way of deep decarbonization of cement. The sector is dominated by a handful of major producers, which are cautious about pioneering new products that challenge their existing business models. In the absence of a strong carbon-pricing signal, there is little short-term economic incentive to make changes. Alternative materials are often not readily available at the scale required. Meanwhile, architects, engineers, contractors and clients are understandably cautious about novel building materials. Implementing new practices also implies a critical role for millions of workers involved in using concrete across the urban landscape. Low expectations around the prospects for a radical breakthrough in cement production are reflected in the limited attention given to the sector in key assessments of low-carbon pathways in recent years. 5 As one recent report notes, 'When cement emissions are mentioned at all in public debate, it is typically to note that little can be done about them.' 6 There is, however, a growing sense not only of the urgency of the need to decarbonize cement production, but also of the expanding range of technological and policy solutions. The range of major organizations now working on relevant strategies includes the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), the International Energy Agency (IEA)-working with the industry-led Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI)-and the Energy Transitions Commission, an initiative involving high-level energy experts and stakeholders aimed at accelerating the transition to low-carbon energy systems. For decision-makers, more insight is needed into the potential for scalable, sustainable alternatives to traditional carbon-intensive cement and concrete. For this report Chatham House worked with CambridgeIP, an innovation and intellectual 5 The New Climate Economy's Seizing the Global Opportunity report mentions energy-intensive sectors such as cement, chemicals and iron and steel 'where emissions are large and significant reduction poses undeniable challenges', without spelling out a potential pathway for reduction of those emissions.

The frequency of ""high-impact, low-probability"" (HILP) events in the last d... more The frequency of ""high-impact, low-probability"" (HILP) events in the last decade --such as Hurricane Katrina, the T hoku earthquake and tsunami, and major floods in Pakistan and Thailand --signals the emergence of a new ""normal". In a world of globalized production and optimized supply chains, the impacts of HILP events spread rapidly and are felt on an international scale. This report examines the effects of the volcanic ash cloud that spread across Europe in April 2010 and draws lessons for other HILP events. It considers whether governments and the private sector are sufficiently prepared, how the global economy could be made more resilient, and the role of communications in a crisis.

Radical transformation in the way we use natural resources is central to meeting the needs of fut... more Radical transformation in the way we use natural resources is central to meeting the needs of future generations. Current trends in global resource extraction are incompatible with internationally agreed targets to limit the rise in global average temperature to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Diverting to a sustainable growth pathway will require both substantial improvements in the efficient use of primary resources and a significant degree of displacement of primary resources with secondary materials-those recovered from waste streams and repurposed or remanufactured for further use. The 'circular economy' (CE) concept is fast becoming a new model for resilient growth. A circular economy is one in which products and materials are recycled, repaired and reused rather than thrown away, and in which waste from one industrial process becomes a valued input into another. Creating and optimizing resource 'loops' along value chains could help meet the material needs of growing populations through drastically lower rates of per capita primary resource use. The CE is now a core component both of the EU's 2050 Long-Term Strategy to achieve a climate-neutral Europe and of China's five-year plans. Japan has tabled the CE as a priority for the 2019 G20 summit. Insufficient attention has been paid to CE pathways in developing countries, despite considerable innovation and policy progress. Structural and political conditions, and the rapid pace of growth and industrial development, will require different solutions to those adopted in developed countries; for example, the agricultural sector has been afforded minimal attention in global CE discussions to date, but will need to take a central place in developing-country CE pathways. Innovation is already under way in developing countries, in the agricultural sector and beyond, and developing-country governments are beginning to adopt ambitious strategies for more resource-efficient and circular patterns of industrial growth. The CE offers a promising alternative strategy for industrial development and job creation to the traditional manufacturing-led growth pathway. The CE continues to be understood primarily as a waste management and recycling strategy, but the economic opportunities are far broader and more diverse. With the right enabling conditions, the CE could provide new opportunities for economic diversification, value creation and skills development. Developing countries are in a strong position to take advantage of the new economic opportunities. Their large informal sectors already practice 'circular' activities-in areas such as electronic waste (e-waste) and phone repairs, for example-and could engage in higher-value CE supply chains. Moreover, with enough investment, developing countries can 'leapfrog' developed countries in digital and materials innovation to embed sustainable production and consumption at the heart of their economies. A transition to a CE brings certain trade-offs that require careful management. In the absence of a coordinated and strategic approach to the CE at national or international level, there is the risk that companies will adopt tokenistic-or, at worst, harmful-activities under the umbrella of the CE which preclude more sustainable or higher-value material use. Waste-to-energy initiatives using substandard incineration practices, for example, may bring environmental and human health risks and may also be drawing on waste streams better suited to second-life products. Trade-offs may 1

Research in Transportation Business & Management

The global disaggregation of food supply chains and just-in-time business models with low invento... more The global disaggregation of food supply chains and just-in-time business models with low inventories mean that governments, traders, producers and consumers are increasingly exposed to unforeseen interruptions to supply and associated volatility in food prices. While considerable research has examined the risk of disturbance in global energy markets resulting from a disruption to physical chokepoints along major trade routes, no comparable analysis has been undertaken for agricultural commodities. Here we present the Chatham House Maritime Analysis Tool (CH-MAT), which estimates the volume and value of staple foods passing through maritime chokepoints. The CH-MAT permits analysis of flows through chokepoints arising from bilateral trade in commodities over the period 2000 to 2015. The value of the CH-MAT is illustrated by a first assessment of global flows via maritime chokepoints. We discuss how such data can be combined with information on inland and overland transport networks, strategic reserves and environmental change, to enhance understanding of the risks associated with disruption to critical infrastructureowing to weather events, trade restrictions, conflict, congestion, or institutional failures. We consider the applications within risk management frameworks, and governance mechanisms at national, and multilateral level and identify priority measures to enhance global food security.

Journal of Cleaner Production, 2007

Liberal reform programmes in developing countries were not designed with the need to extend elect... more Liberal reform programmes in developing countries were not designed with the need to extend electricity supplies to rural areas. This paper focuses on the Peruvian experience, examining the impact of electricity reform policies on the characteristics of rural electrification. In rural areas, electrification levels have traditionally been the lowest in the country e making them less or non-profitable for private firms. Only in 2002 did the government introduce a specific Rural Electrification Law, which was intended to promote electrification within the context of a liberalised market. This paper draws upon an analysis of both this piece of legislation and stakeholder interviews, indicating that there exists a need to look further into the evolving relationship between the private and public sectors and how it affects the rural poor. This study forms part of the RESURL international research project on renewable energy for sustainable rural livelihoods in developing countries, funded by the UK Government's Department for International Development (DfID).

The task of decarbonization is essentially one of industrial policy, though not confined to the i... more The task of decarbonization is essentially one of industrial policy, though not confined to the industrial sector. Governments must develop national transformation strategies, build effective institutions and intervene in markets to create and withdraw rents while avoiding policy capture. z z In poor countries, the principal challenges are low levels of government capacity and a lack of economic resources. For rich countries the challenge is primarily political: governments must pursue policies that are discounted by their populations and confront powerful incumbent interests. z z Bundling mitigation with existing policy priorities and highlighting co-benefits provides governments with a way to manage political risk. However, rapid decarbonization requires governments to make emissions reduction a policy priority. z z Piloting provides an important way for governments to work with the private sector, demonstrate success, overcome opposition and avoid policy deadlock. As such, piloting is more than a technical exercise; it is a political project. z z The costs of low-carbon technologies are falling fast and the green economy is expanding. Increasingly, the key challenge for governments-of avoiding highcarbon lock-in-is one of strategic choice rather than affordability.

Ensuring access to climate-friendly technologies at affordable prices is a critical issue for int... more Ensuring access to climate-friendly technologies at affordable prices is a critical issue for international public policy - one that cuts across economic, legal, security, and geopolitical concerns. This report examines two issues: patent ownership of climate friendly technologies, and the rate of technology diffusion.

• There is growing optimism about the potential of the 'circular economy' (CE) as a new model for... more • There is growing optimism about the potential of the 'circular economy' (CE) as a new model for sustainable growth in developing countries. A CE is one in which products are recycled, repaired or reused rather than thrown away, and in which waste from one process becomes an input into other processes. In recent months there has been CE-related activity in countries as diverse as Laos, Rwanda and Colombia. • A CE strategy could help lower-income countries 'leapfrog' to a more sustainable development pathway that avoids locking in resource-intensive practices and infrastructure. But a stronger evidence base is needed to show how the agenda can deliver opportunities for industrialization, as well as addressing environmental insecurity. • Lower-income countries are in many ways more 'circular' than their developedeconomy counterparts-the question is how to turn this into a development opportunity. Much economic activity in lower-income countries revolves around sorting and reusing waste. However, higher-value, employment-generating opportunities for reuse and remanufacturing are yet to be captured. • The existence of circular activities in developing countries provides excellent political 'entry points', which could enable governments, the private sector, civil society and other actors to promote innovative economic models. The CE could provide a powerful narrative, helping to build momentum around a set of ideas that can be applied in and tailored to multiple sectors or cities. • There is a window of opportunity in which to align the efforts of development organizations and partner countries. Donors are exploring how the agenda should be aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the Paris Climate Agreement. Wider international cooperation on the CE could involve trade partnerships, regional hubs or pilot zones.

Each year, more than 4 billion tonnes of cement are produced, accounting for around 8 per cent of... more Each year, more than 4 billion tonnes of cement are produced, accounting for around 8 per cent of global CO2 emissions Making Concrete Change: Innovation in Low-carbon Cement and Concrete Executive Summary vi | #ConcreteChange all will need to be deployed at scale to meet the decarbonization challenge. Some of these solutions are well recognized and common to other sectors: for instance, the energy efficiency of cement plants can be increased, fossil fuels can be replaced with alternatives, and CO2 emitted can be captured and stored. The main focus of this report, however, is on those emissions mitigation solutions that require the transformation of cement and concrete and are thus unique to the sector. More than 50 per cent of cement sector emissions are intrinsically linked to the process for producing clinker, one of the main ingredients in cement. As the by-product of a chemical reaction, such emissions cannot be reduced simply by changing fuel sources or increasing the efficiency of cement plants. This report therefore focuses on the potential to blend clinker with alternative materials, and on the use of 'novel cements'-two levers that can reduce the need for clinker itself by lowering the proportion of clinker required in particular cement mixtures. Despite widespread acceptance among experts that these are critical, they have received far less policy focus. Well-known barriers stand in the way of deep decarbonization of cement. The sector is dominated by a handful of major producers, which are cautious about pioneering new products that challenge their existing business models. In the absence of a strong carbon-pricing signal, there is little short-term economic incentive to make changes. Alternative materials are often not readily available at the scale required. Meanwhile, architects, engineers, contractors and clients are understandably cautious about novel building materials. Implementing new practices also implies a critical role for millions of workers involved in using concrete across the urban landscape. Low expectations around the prospects for a radical breakthrough in cement production are reflected in the limited attention given to the sector in key assessments of low-carbon pathways in recent years. 5 As one recent report notes, 'When cement emissions are mentioned at all in public debate, it is typically to note that little can be done about them.' 6 There is, however, a growing sense not only of the urgency of the need to decarbonize cement production, but also of the expanding range of technological and policy solutions. The range of major organizations now working on relevant strategies includes the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), the International Energy Agency (IEA)-working with the industry-led Cement Sustainability Initiative (CSI)-and the Energy Transitions Commission, an initiative involving high-level energy experts and stakeholders aimed at accelerating the transition to low-carbon energy systems. For decision-makers, more insight is needed into the potential for scalable, sustainable alternatives to traditional carbon-intensive cement and concrete. For this report Chatham House worked with CambridgeIP, an innovation and intellectual 5 The New Climate Economy's Seizing the Global Opportunity report mentions energy-intensive sectors such as cement, chemicals and iron and steel 'where emissions are large and significant reduction poses undeniable challenges', without spelling out a potential pathway for reduction of those emissions.

The frequency of ""high-impact, low-probability"" (HILP) events in the last d... more The frequency of ""high-impact, low-probability"" (HILP) events in the last decade --such as Hurricane Katrina, the T hoku earthquake and tsunami, and major floods in Pakistan and Thailand --signals the emergence of a new ""normal". In a world of globalized production and optimized supply chains, the impacts of HILP events spread rapidly and are felt on an international scale. This report examines the effects of the volcanic ash cloud that spread across Europe in April 2010 and draws lessons for other HILP events. It considers whether governments and the private sector are sufficiently prepared, how the global economy could be made more resilient, and the role of communications in a crisis.

Radical transformation in the way we use natural resources is central to meeting the needs of fut... more Radical transformation in the way we use natural resources is central to meeting the needs of future generations. Current trends in global resource extraction are incompatible with internationally agreed targets to limit the rise in global average temperature to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Diverting to a sustainable growth pathway will require both substantial improvements in the efficient use of primary resources and a significant degree of displacement of primary resources with secondary materials-those recovered from waste streams and repurposed or remanufactured for further use. The 'circular economy' (CE) concept is fast becoming a new model for resilient growth. A circular economy is one in which products and materials are recycled, repaired and reused rather than thrown away, and in which waste from one industrial process becomes a valued input into another. Creating and optimizing resource 'loops' along value chains could help meet the material needs of growing populations through drastically lower rates of per capita primary resource use. The CE is now a core component both of the EU's 2050 Long-Term Strategy to achieve a climate-neutral Europe and of China's five-year plans. Japan has tabled the CE as a priority for the 2019 G20 summit. Insufficient attention has been paid to CE pathways in developing countries, despite considerable innovation and policy progress. Structural and political conditions, and the rapid pace of growth and industrial development, will require different solutions to those adopted in developed countries; for example, the agricultural sector has been afforded minimal attention in global CE discussions to date, but will need to take a central place in developing-country CE pathways. Innovation is already under way in developing countries, in the agricultural sector and beyond, and developing-country governments are beginning to adopt ambitious strategies for more resource-efficient and circular patterns of industrial growth. The CE offers a promising alternative strategy for industrial development and job creation to the traditional manufacturing-led growth pathway. The CE continues to be understood primarily as a waste management and recycling strategy, but the economic opportunities are far broader and more diverse. With the right enabling conditions, the CE could provide new opportunities for economic diversification, value creation and skills development. Developing countries are in a strong position to take advantage of the new economic opportunities. Their large informal sectors already practice 'circular' activities-in areas such as electronic waste (e-waste) and phone repairs, for example-and could engage in higher-value CE supply chains. Moreover, with enough investment, developing countries can 'leapfrog' developed countries in digital and materials innovation to embed sustainable production and consumption at the heart of their economies. A transition to a CE brings certain trade-offs that require careful management. In the absence of a coordinated and strategic approach to the CE at national or international level, there is the risk that companies will adopt tokenistic-or, at worst, harmful-activities under the umbrella of the CE which preclude more sustainable or higher-value material use. Waste-to-energy initiatives using substandard incineration practices, for example, may bring environmental and human health risks and may also be drawing on waste streams better suited to second-life products. Trade-offs may 1

Research in Transportation Business & Management

The global disaggregation of food supply chains and just-in-time business models with low invento... more The global disaggregation of food supply chains and just-in-time business models with low inventories mean that governments, traders, producers and consumers are increasingly exposed to unforeseen interruptions to supply and associated volatility in food prices. While considerable research has examined the risk of disturbance in global energy markets resulting from a disruption to physical chokepoints along major trade routes, no comparable analysis has been undertaken for agricultural commodities. Here we present the Chatham House Maritime Analysis Tool (CH-MAT), which estimates the volume and value of staple foods passing through maritime chokepoints. The CH-MAT permits analysis of flows through chokepoints arising from bilateral trade in commodities over the period 2000 to 2015. The value of the CH-MAT is illustrated by a first assessment of global flows via maritime chokepoints. We discuss how such data can be combined with information on inland and overland transport networks, strategic reserves and environmental change, to enhance understanding of the risks associated with disruption to critical infrastructureowing to weather events, trade restrictions, conflict, congestion, or institutional failures. We consider the applications within risk management frameworks, and governance mechanisms at national, and multilateral level and identify priority measures to enhance global food security.

Journal of Cleaner Production, 2007

Liberal reform programmes in developing countries were not designed with the need to extend elect... more Liberal reform programmes in developing countries were not designed with the need to extend electricity supplies to rural areas. This paper focuses on the Peruvian experience, examining the impact of electricity reform policies on the characteristics of rural electrification. In rural areas, electrification levels have traditionally been the lowest in the country e making them less or non-profitable for private firms. Only in 2002 did the government introduce a specific Rural Electrification Law, which was intended to promote electrification within the context of a liberalised market. This paper draws upon an analysis of both this piece of legislation and stakeholder interviews, indicating that there exists a need to look further into the evolving relationship between the private and public sectors and how it affects the rural poor. This study forms part of the RESURL international research project on renewable energy for sustainable rural livelihoods in developing countries, funded by the UK Government's Department for International Development (DfID).