W. Fiedler - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by W. Fiedler

Science Advances, 2016

Researchers uncover a large variation in the lifetime migratory decisions of young white storks.

Journal of Animal Ecology, 2018

Early arrival at breeding grounds is of prime importance for migrating birds as it is known to en... more Early arrival at breeding grounds is of prime importance for migrating birds as it is known to enhance breeding success. Adults, males and higher quality individuals typically arrive earlier, and across years, early arrival has been linked to warmer spring temperatures. However, the mechanisms and potential costs of early arrival are not well understood. To deepen the understanding of arrival date differences between individuals and years, we studied them in light of the preceding spring migration behaviour and atmospheric conditions en route. GPS and body acceleration (ACC) data were obtained for 35 adult white storks (Ciconia ciconia) over five years (2012–2016). ACC records were translated to energy expenditure estimates (overall dynamic body acceleration; ODBA) and to behavioural modes, and GPS fixes were coupled with environmental parameters. At the interindividual level (within years), early arrival was attributed primarily to departing earlier for migration and from more nort...

Science (New York, N.Y.), Jan 26, 2018

Animal movement is fundamental for ecosystem functioning and species survival, yet the effects of... more Animal movement is fundamental for ecosystem functioning and species survival, yet the effects of the anthropogenic footprint on animal movements have not been estimated across species. Using a unique GPS-tracking database of 803 individuals across 57 species, we found that movements of mammals in areas with a comparatively high human footprint were on average one-half to one-third the extent of their movements in areas with a low human footprint. We attribute this reduction to behavioral changes of individual animals and to the exclusion of species with long-range movements from areas with higher human impact. Global loss of vagility alters a key ecological trait of animals that affects not only population persistence but also ecosystem processes such as predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling, and disease transmission.

Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 2003

Latitudinal gradients in population dynamics can arise through regional variation in the determin... more Latitudinal gradients in population dynamics can arise through regional variation in the deterministic components of the population dynamics and the stochastic factors. Here, we demonstrate an increase with latitude in the contribution of a large-scale climate pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), to the fluctuations in size of populations of two European hole-nesting passerine species. However, this influence of climate induced different latitudinal gradients in the population dynamics of the two species. In the great tit the proportion of the variability in the population fluctuations explained by the NAO increased with latitude, showing a larger impact of climate on the population fluctuations of this species at higher latitudes. In contrast, no latitudinal gradient was found in the relative contribution of climate to the variability of the pied flycatcher populations because the total environmental stochasticity increased with latitude. This shows that the population ecological consequences of an expected climate change will depend on how climate affects the environmental stochasticity in the population process. In both species, the effects will be larger in those parts of Europe where large changes in climate are expected.

Science, 2005

There have been numerous recent observations of changes in the behavior and dynamics of migratory... more There have been numerous recent observations of changes in the behavior and dynamics of migratory bird populations, but the plasticity of the migratory trait and our inability to track small animals over large distances have hindered investigation of the mechanisms behind migratory change. We used habitat-specific stable isotope signatures to show that recently evolved allopatric wintering populations of European blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla pair assortatively on their sympatric breeding grounds. Birds wintering further north also produce larger clutches and fledge more young. These findings describe an important process in the evolution of migratory divides, new migration routes, and wintering quarters. Temporal segregation of breeding is a way in which subpopulations of vertebrates may become isolated in sympatry.

Effects of Climate Change on Birds

There are numerous sources of data relevant for studies of the effects of climate change. Here we... more There are numerous sources of data relevant for studies of the effects of climate change. Here we provide a classification of such data and their advantages and drawbacks. Long-term data can be classified into data from long-term population studies, nest record schemes, bird surveys, breeding and winter atlases, bird ringing information, bird ringing stations, bird observation depositories, and museum collections. Such data differ enormously in quality, but also in their usefulness. They range from long-term population studies of individually banded birds that can be used for genetic, evolution, and ecology studies to studies of presence/absence data. There are relatively few individual-based population studies while databases of records of individuals are much more abundant, albeit still useful for many purposes. Different databases also vary consistently in data quality, and there is scope for methodological studies and comparative analyses of multiple data bases.

Birds and Climate Change

A dynamic pedagogical shift in CCA's interdisciplinary studio curricula is exemplified by the cla... more A dynamic pedagogical shift in CCA's interdisciplinary studio curricula is exemplified by the class: Lifecycle: Empathy and Design for Complex Processes. Within this hybrid design studio environment, the complex interaction between an object and our material and digital environments is addressed through a life-cycle assessment. This was formulated through an analysis of traceable inventories, archives of (i/o) inputs and outputs of industrial, socioeconomic and cultural processes that occurs within the life cycle of a selected object. The lifecycle of any object, the path it takes from concept, production, distribution, use, potential reuse, and ultimately as a collectible, e-waste, or landfill is critically demanding by its very nature.

Avian Migration, 2003

... Winkel and Frantzen (1991) found decreasing numbers of evasions in blue tits (Parus caeruleus... more ... Winkel and Frantzen (1991) found decreasing numbers of evasions in blue tits (Parus caeruleus) in northern Germany. ... are numerous (selection in Table 3). They are mainly obtained from field obser-vations (eg Mason 1995; Gatter 2000) or from data of bird-ringing stations like ...

... Country Sitename Year Count Type Ref. Albania Karavasta Complex 2000 17410 J 17 Algeria Sebkh... more ... Country Sitename Year Count Type Ref. Albania Karavasta Complex 2000 17410 J 17 Algeria Sebkhet Djendli 1992 9000 J 17 ... Mauritanie Trarza, Aftout Es Saheli 2004 2866 J 17 MoroccoMerja Zerga: Kenitra 1991 10960 J 17 Morocco Barrage Al Massira: Settat ...

bto.org

... Iran Hamidieh Grassland 1992 9742 J 17 Iran Anar Marz Ab-Bandan 1990 9600 J 17 Iran Hamoun La... more ... Iran Hamidieh Grassland 1992 9742 J 17 Iran Anar Marz Ab-Bandan 1990 9600 J 17 Iran Hamoun Lakes Complex: Kuh-I-Khajeh ... Spain Lucio Del Membrillo (H) 1992 5050 J 17 Spain Embalse De Zújar – Serena 1993 5036 J 17 Spain Lucios Al Sur De De Los Ansares (Se) ...

bto.org

... Thieme, Zutphen. 3 Wernham, C., Toms, M., Marchant, J., Clark, J., Siriwardena, G. & ... more ... Thieme, Zutphen. 3 Wernham, C., Toms, M., Marchant, J., Clark, J., Siriwardena, G. & Baillie, S. (eds.) 2002. ... 1. Stockholm. Including preliminary printouts for volume 2 (unpublished, 2006) 5 Bønløkke, J., Madsen, JJ, Thorup, K., Pedersen, KT, Bjerrum, M. & Rahbek, C. in press. ...

bto.org

... Thieme, Zutphen. 3 Wernham, C., Toms, M., Marchant, J., Clark, J., Siriwardena, G. &a... more ... Thieme, Zutphen. 3 Wernham, C., Toms, M., Marchant, J., Clark, J., Siriwardena, G. & Baillie, S. (eds.) 2002. ... 1. Stockholm. Including preliminary printouts for volume 2 (unpublished, 2006) 5 Bønløkke, J., Madsen, JJ, Thorup, K., Pedersen, KT, Bjerrum, M. & Rahbek, C. in press. ...

sea

... Thieme, Zutphen. 3 Wernham, C., Toms, M., Marchant, J., Clark, J., Siriwardena, G. & Bail... more ... Thieme, Zutphen. 3 Wernham, C., Toms, M., Marchant, J., Clark, J., Siriwardena, G. & Baillie, S. (eds.) 2002. ... 1. Stockholm. Including preliminary printouts for volume 2 (unpublished, 2006) 5 Bønløkke, J., Madsen, JJ, Thorup, K., Pedersen, KT, Bjerrum, M. & Rahbek, C. in press. ...

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 2009

In Germany, two distinct episodes of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus of subt... more In Germany, two distinct episodes of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus of subtype H5N1 (HPAIV H5N1) in wild birds occurred at the beginning of 2006, and in summer 2007. High local densities of wild bird populations apparently sparked clinically detectable outbreaks. However, these remained restricted in (i) number of birds, (ii) species found to be affected, (iii) time, and (iv) location despite the presence of several hundred thousands of susceptible wild birds and further stressors (food shortage, harsh weather conditions and moulting). Northern and southern subpopulations of several migratory anseriform species can be distinguished with respect to their preference for wintering grounds in Germany. This corroborates viral genetic data by Starick et al. (2008) demonstrating the introduction of two geographically restricted virus subpopulations of Qinghai-like lineage (cluster 2.2.A and 2.2.B) into northern and southern Germany, respectively, in 2006. The incursion of virus emerging in 2007, found to be distinct from the clusters detected in 2006 (Starick et al., 2008), may have been associated with moulting movements. Intensive past-outbreak investigations with negative results of live and dead wild birds and of terrestrial scavengers excluded continued circulation of virus on a larger scale. However, persistence of virus in small pockets of local wild bird populations could not be ruled out resiliently. 1.5% of investigated sera originating from cats sampled at the epicentres of the Ruegen 2006-outbreak contained H5-antibodies. Passive monitoring was found to be highly superior to live bird surveillance when aiming at the detection of HPAIV H5N1 in wild birds (P < 0.0001).

Journal of Ornithology, 2010

bto.org

... 1998 11091 J 17 Page 4. Table 1 continued: Greylag Goose Anser anser Country Sitename Year Co... more ... 1998 11091 J 17 Page 4. Table 1 continued: Greylag Goose Anser anser Country Sitename Year Count Type Ref. Iran Dasht-E-Arjan Marsh ... Iran Gharaso (Boralan) Marsh 1993 3400 J 17 Iran Band Ali Khan Complex: Band-Ali Khan 1998 3000 J 17 Iran Shur Gol / Hassanlu ...

Journal of Applied Ecology, 2014

1. Quantifying ecosystem functions in spatially explicit ways is important for management decisio... more 1. Quantifying ecosystem functions in spatially explicit ways is important for management decisions in increasingly fragmented landscapes. Between-patch dispersal of seeds by frugivores constitutes a key ecosystem function to ensure connectivity for fleshy-fruited plants. However, to date, methodological hurdles have limited our understanding of dispersal pathways on the landscape scale. 2. We made use of newly available tracking devices and combined movement data of 30 trumpeter hornbills Bycanistes bucinator with gut passage times and high-resolution habitat data in a fragmented forest landscape in South Africa. We identified each potential seed dispersal path and distinguished whether potential seed transport happened to a different forest patch (between-patch dispersal), within the same patch (within-patch dispersal) or into the habitat matrix (failed dispersal). To quantify functional landscape connectivity, we identified all possible between-patch connections and used graph networks to estimate landscape connectivity provided by hornbills. 3. Although potential between-patch dispersal events were rare (on average 7% compared to 20% failed dispersal and 73% within-patch dispersal), hornbills could cover distances of up to 15 km. Hornbills visited over 100 forest patches and connected a habitat network with an extent of about 50 km, which increased the potential functional connectivity of the landscape more than twofold. 4. We identified habitat patches that were critical stepping stones for seed dispersal pathways. Without these stepping stones, the network would likely disintegrate into separated components and lead to isolation of forest fragments. 5. Synthesis and applications. We showed that large frugivorous birds can greatly improve functional connectivity for fleshy-fruited plants across broad scales, linking habitat patches in fragmented forest landscapes. Combining high-resolution movement and landscape data in graph networks allows identifying seed dispersal pathways and critical stepping stones in fragmented landscapes. This approach addresses the general challenge of spatially explicit mapping of ecosystem services and can be widely incorporated in reserve design and landscape-level conservation planning.

Ecology, 2005

The risk of extinction of populations has not previously been empirically related to parameters c... more The risk of extinction of populations has not previously been empirically related to parameters characterizing their population dynamics. To analyze this relationship, we simulated how the distribution of population dynamical characters changed as a function of time, in both the remaining and the extinct populations. We found for a set of 38 bird populations that environmental stochasticity had the most immediate effect on the risk of extinction, whereas the long-term persistence of the population was most strongly affected by the specific population growth rate. This illustrates the importance of including information on temporal trends in population size when assessing the viability of a population. We used these relationships to examine whether time to extinction can be predicted from interspecific life history variation. Two alternative hypotheses were examined. (1) Time to extinction should decrease with increasing clutch size or decreasing survival rate because of the larger stochastic components in the population dynamics of such species. (2) Time to extinction should increase with decreasing clutch size or longer life expectancy if extinction rates are most strongly influenced by variation in the specific population growth rate. In the present data set, time to extinction increased with decreasing clutch size because of larger stochastic influences on the population dynamics of species with large clutch sizes located toward the fast end of the ''slow-fast continuum'' of life history variation. This demonstrates that interspecific variation in extinction risk can be predicted from knowledge of general life history characteristics. Such information can therefore be useful for assessing minimum sizes of viable populations of birds.

Science Advances, 2016

Researchers uncover a large variation in the lifetime migratory decisions of young white storks.

Journal of Animal Ecology, 2018

Early arrival at breeding grounds is of prime importance for migrating birds as it is known to en... more Early arrival at breeding grounds is of prime importance for migrating birds as it is known to enhance breeding success. Adults, males and higher quality individuals typically arrive earlier, and across years, early arrival has been linked to warmer spring temperatures. However, the mechanisms and potential costs of early arrival are not well understood. To deepen the understanding of arrival date differences between individuals and years, we studied them in light of the preceding spring migration behaviour and atmospheric conditions en route. GPS and body acceleration (ACC) data were obtained for 35 adult white storks (Ciconia ciconia) over five years (2012–2016). ACC records were translated to energy expenditure estimates (overall dynamic body acceleration; ODBA) and to behavioural modes, and GPS fixes were coupled with environmental parameters. At the interindividual level (within years), early arrival was attributed primarily to departing earlier for migration and from more nort...

Science (New York, N.Y.), Jan 26, 2018

Animal movement is fundamental for ecosystem functioning and species survival, yet the effects of... more Animal movement is fundamental for ecosystem functioning and species survival, yet the effects of the anthropogenic footprint on animal movements have not been estimated across species. Using a unique GPS-tracking database of 803 individuals across 57 species, we found that movements of mammals in areas with a comparatively high human footprint were on average one-half to one-third the extent of their movements in areas with a low human footprint. We attribute this reduction to behavioral changes of individual animals and to the exclusion of species with long-range movements from areas with higher human impact. Global loss of vagility alters a key ecological trait of animals that affects not only population persistence but also ecosystem processes such as predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling, and disease transmission.

Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences, 2003

Latitudinal gradients in population dynamics can arise through regional variation in the determin... more Latitudinal gradients in population dynamics can arise through regional variation in the deterministic components of the population dynamics and the stochastic factors. Here, we demonstrate an increase with latitude in the contribution of a large-scale climate pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), to the fluctuations in size of populations of two European hole-nesting passerine species. However, this influence of climate induced different latitudinal gradients in the population dynamics of the two species. In the great tit the proportion of the variability in the population fluctuations explained by the NAO increased with latitude, showing a larger impact of climate on the population fluctuations of this species at higher latitudes. In contrast, no latitudinal gradient was found in the relative contribution of climate to the variability of the pied flycatcher populations because the total environmental stochasticity increased with latitude. This shows that the population ecological consequences of an expected climate change will depend on how climate affects the environmental stochasticity in the population process. In both species, the effects will be larger in those parts of Europe where large changes in climate are expected.

Science, 2005

There have been numerous recent observations of changes in the behavior and dynamics of migratory... more There have been numerous recent observations of changes in the behavior and dynamics of migratory bird populations, but the plasticity of the migratory trait and our inability to track small animals over large distances have hindered investigation of the mechanisms behind migratory change. We used habitat-specific stable isotope signatures to show that recently evolved allopatric wintering populations of European blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla pair assortatively on their sympatric breeding grounds. Birds wintering further north also produce larger clutches and fledge more young. These findings describe an important process in the evolution of migratory divides, new migration routes, and wintering quarters. Temporal segregation of breeding is a way in which subpopulations of vertebrates may become isolated in sympatry.

Effects of Climate Change on Birds

There are numerous sources of data relevant for studies of the effects of climate change. Here we... more There are numerous sources of data relevant for studies of the effects of climate change. Here we provide a classification of such data and their advantages and drawbacks. Long-term data can be classified into data from long-term population studies, nest record schemes, bird surveys, breeding and winter atlases, bird ringing information, bird ringing stations, bird observation depositories, and museum collections. Such data differ enormously in quality, but also in their usefulness. They range from long-term population studies of individually banded birds that can be used for genetic, evolution, and ecology studies to studies of presence/absence data. There are relatively few individual-based population studies while databases of records of individuals are much more abundant, albeit still useful for many purposes. Different databases also vary consistently in data quality, and there is scope for methodological studies and comparative analyses of multiple data bases.

Birds and Climate Change

A dynamic pedagogical shift in CCA's interdisciplinary studio curricula is exemplified by the cla... more A dynamic pedagogical shift in CCA's interdisciplinary studio curricula is exemplified by the class: Lifecycle: Empathy and Design for Complex Processes. Within this hybrid design studio environment, the complex interaction between an object and our material and digital environments is addressed through a life-cycle assessment. This was formulated through an analysis of traceable inventories, archives of (i/o) inputs and outputs of industrial, socioeconomic and cultural processes that occurs within the life cycle of a selected object. The lifecycle of any object, the path it takes from concept, production, distribution, use, potential reuse, and ultimately as a collectible, e-waste, or landfill is critically demanding by its very nature.

Avian Migration, 2003

... Winkel and Frantzen (1991) found decreasing numbers of evasions in blue tits (Parus caeruleus... more ... Winkel and Frantzen (1991) found decreasing numbers of evasions in blue tits (Parus caeruleus) in northern Germany. ... are numerous (selection in Table 3). They are mainly obtained from field obser-vations (eg Mason 1995; Gatter 2000) or from data of bird-ringing stations like ...

... Country Sitename Year Count Type Ref. Albania Karavasta Complex 2000 17410 J 17 Algeria Sebkh... more ... Country Sitename Year Count Type Ref. Albania Karavasta Complex 2000 17410 J 17 Algeria Sebkhet Djendli 1992 9000 J 17 ... Mauritanie Trarza, Aftout Es Saheli 2004 2866 J 17 MoroccoMerja Zerga: Kenitra 1991 10960 J 17 Morocco Barrage Al Massira: Settat ...

bto.org

... Iran Hamidieh Grassland 1992 9742 J 17 Iran Anar Marz Ab-Bandan 1990 9600 J 17 Iran Hamoun La... more ... Iran Hamidieh Grassland 1992 9742 J 17 Iran Anar Marz Ab-Bandan 1990 9600 J 17 Iran Hamoun Lakes Complex: Kuh-I-Khajeh ... Spain Lucio Del Membrillo (H) 1992 5050 J 17 Spain Embalse De Zújar – Serena 1993 5036 J 17 Spain Lucios Al Sur De De Los Ansares (Se) ...

bto.org

... Thieme, Zutphen. 3 Wernham, C., Toms, M., Marchant, J., Clark, J., Siriwardena, G. & ... more ... Thieme, Zutphen. 3 Wernham, C., Toms, M., Marchant, J., Clark, J., Siriwardena, G. & Baillie, S. (eds.) 2002. ... 1. Stockholm. Including preliminary printouts for volume 2 (unpublished, 2006) 5 Bønløkke, J., Madsen, JJ, Thorup, K., Pedersen, KT, Bjerrum, M. & Rahbek, C. in press. ...

bto.org

... Thieme, Zutphen. 3 Wernham, C., Toms, M., Marchant, J., Clark, J., Siriwardena, G. &a... more ... Thieme, Zutphen. 3 Wernham, C., Toms, M., Marchant, J., Clark, J., Siriwardena, G. & Baillie, S. (eds.) 2002. ... 1. Stockholm. Including preliminary printouts for volume 2 (unpublished, 2006) 5 Bønløkke, J., Madsen, JJ, Thorup, K., Pedersen, KT, Bjerrum, M. & Rahbek, C. in press. ...

sea

... Thieme, Zutphen. 3 Wernham, C., Toms, M., Marchant, J., Clark, J., Siriwardena, G. & Bail... more ... Thieme, Zutphen. 3 Wernham, C., Toms, M., Marchant, J., Clark, J., Siriwardena, G. & Baillie, S. (eds.) 2002. ... 1. Stockholm. Including preliminary printouts for volume 2 (unpublished, 2006) 5 Bønløkke, J., Madsen, JJ, Thorup, K., Pedersen, KT, Bjerrum, M. & Rahbek, C. in press. ...

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 2009

In Germany, two distinct episodes of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus of subt... more In Germany, two distinct episodes of outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus of subtype H5N1 (HPAIV H5N1) in wild birds occurred at the beginning of 2006, and in summer 2007. High local densities of wild bird populations apparently sparked clinically detectable outbreaks. However, these remained restricted in (i) number of birds, (ii) species found to be affected, (iii) time, and (iv) location despite the presence of several hundred thousands of susceptible wild birds and further stressors (food shortage, harsh weather conditions and moulting). Northern and southern subpopulations of several migratory anseriform species can be distinguished with respect to their preference for wintering grounds in Germany. This corroborates viral genetic data by Starick et al. (2008) demonstrating the introduction of two geographically restricted virus subpopulations of Qinghai-like lineage (cluster 2.2.A and 2.2.B) into northern and southern Germany, respectively, in 2006. The incursion of virus emerging in 2007, found to be distinct from the clusters detected in 2006 (Starick et al., 2008), may have been associated with moulting movements. Intensive past-outbreak investigations with negative results of live and dead wild birds and of terrestrial scavengers excluded continued circulation of virus on a larger scale. However, persistence of virus in small pockets of local wild bird populations could not be ruled out resiliently. 1.5% of investigated sera originating from cats sampled at the epicentres of the Ruegen 2006-outbreak contained H5-antibodies. Passive monitoring was found to be highly superior to live bird surveillance when aiming at the detection of HPAIV H5N1 in wild birds (P < 0.0001).

Journal of Ornithology, 2010

bto.org

... 1998 11091 J 17 Page 4. Table 1 continued: Greylag Goose Anser anser Country Sitename Year Co... more ... 1998 11091 J 17 Page 4. Table 1 continued: Greylag Goose Anser anser Country Sitename Year Count Type Ref. Iran Dasht-E-Arjan Marsh ... Iran Gharaso (Boralan) Marsh 1993 3400 J 17 Iran Band Ali Khan Complex: Band-Ali Khan 1998 3000 J 17 Iran Shur Gol / Hassanlu ...

Journal of Applied Ecology, 2014

1. Quantifying ecosystem functions in spatially explicit ways is important for management decisio... more 1. Quantifying ecosystem functions in spatially explicit ways is important for management decisions in increasingly fragmented landscapes. Between-patch dispersal of seeds by frugivores constitutes a key ecosystem function to ensure connectivity for fleshy-fruited plants. However, to date, methodological hurdles have limited our understanding of dispersal pathways on the landscape scale. 2. We made use of newly available tracking devices and combined movement data of 30 trumpeter hornbills Bycanistes bucinator with gut passage times and high-resolution habitat data in a fragmented forest landscape in South Africa. We identified each potential seed dispersal path and distinguished whether potential seed transport happened to a different forest patch (between-patch dispersal), within the same patch (within-patch dispersal) or into the habitat matrix (failed dispersal). To quantify functional landscape connectivity, we identified all possible between-patch connections and used graph networks to estimate landscape connectivity provided by hornbills. 3. Although potential between-patch dispersal events were rare (on average 7% compared to 20% failed dispersal and 73% within-patch dispersal), hornbills could cover distances of up to 15 km. Hornbills visited over 100 forest patches and connected a habitat network with an extent of about 50 km, which increased the potential functional connectivity of the landscape more than twofold. 4. We identified habitat patches that were critical stepping stones for seed dispersal pathways. Without these stepping stones, the network would likely disintegrate into separated components and lead to isolation of forest fragments. 5. Synthesis and applications. We showed that large frugivorous birds can greatly improve functional connectivity for fleshy-fruited plants across broad scales, linking habitat patches in fragmented forest landscapes. Combining high-resolution movement and landscape data in graph networks allows identifying seed dispersal pathways and critical stepping stones in fragmented landscapes. This approach addresses the general challenge of spatially explicit mapping of ecosystem services and can be widely incorporated in reserve design and landscape-level conservation planning.

Ecology, 2005

The risk of extinction of populations has not previously been empirically related to parameters c... more The risk of extinction of populations has not previously been empirically related to parameters characterizing their population dynamics. To analyze this relationship, we simulated how the distribution of population dynamical characters changed as a function of time, in both the remaining and the extinct populations. We found for a set of 38 bird populations that environmental stochasticity had the most immediate effect on the risk of extinction, whereas the long-term persistence of the population was most strongly affected by the specific population growth rate. This illustrates the importance of including information on temporal trends in population size when assessing the viability of a population. We used these relationships to examine whether time to extinction can be predicted from interspecific life history variation. Two alternative hypotheses were examined. (1) Time to extinction should decrease with increasing clutch size or decreasing survival rate because of the larger stochastic components in the population dynamics of such species. (2) Time to extinction should increase with decreasing clutch size or longer life expectancy if extinction rates are most strongly influenced by variation in the specific population growth rate. In the present data set, time to extinction increased with decreasing clutch size because of larger stochastic influences on the population dynamics of species with large clutch sizes located toward the fast end of the ''slow-fast continuum'' of life history variation. This demonstrates that interspecific variation in extinction risk can be predicted from knowledge of general life history characteristics. Such information can therefore be useful for assessing minimum sizes of viable populations of birds.