Fitsum Teklu - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
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Papers by Fitsum Teklu
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2020
Abstract Direct demand models estimated to ticket sales data have for many years provided evidenc... more Abstract Direct demand models estimated to ticket sales data have for many years provided evidence on how key variables influence rail demand in Great Britain. Nonetheless, there has been relatively little estimation of demand models disaggregated by ticket type which would provide own and cross-price elasticities that can inform the pricing of different ticket products. We here report such enhanced models estimated on large data sets and exploiting the relationships of economic theory within a demand system. In addition, a complementary market research exercise is undertaken that itself provides ticket specific own and cross-elasticities and which also supports the estimation of models jointly based on actual and stated behaviour. We conclude that the demand systems approach can recover robust ticket specific own-elasticities but that there are econometric difficulties in estimating cross-elasticities even using supporting economic theory, so that cross-elasticities between tickets are better deduced from these own-elasticities than estimated. This contrasts with the convention in the railway industry in Great Britain where own and cross-elasticities are deduced from recommended conditional elasticity evidence. Market research also has a role to play and provides own-elasticities that, as is common, are rather larger and cross-elasticities that are a little larger than those derived from ticket sales analysis. A key feature of this work is to reconcile those two approaches by scaling the market research elasticities using ticket sales data. This further supports our conclusion that generating robust own-elasticities and deducing cross-elasticities from these is currently the most fruitful method of obtaining a full set of own- and cross-elasticities for different ticket types within a demand system framework, and that this approach is superior to the conventional single equation approach.
Transportation, 2019
Recovery time in the rail industry is the additional time that is included in train timetables ov... more Recovery time in the rail industry is the additional time that is included in train timetables over and above the minimum journey time necessary often with the explicit aim of improving punctuality. Recovery time is widely used in railways in a number of countries but prior to this study there has been no investigation of the rail users’ point of view. Perceived recovery time, such as being held outside stations and prolonged stops at stations, might have some premium valuation due to the frustration caused. If perceived recovery time in train timetables does carry a premium, then the benefits of improved punctuality achieved by it will be reduced. This paper is the first to investigate passengers’ views and preferences on the use of recovery time. We summarise the findings of a large study and provide estimates of passengers’ valuations of recovery time, both relative to in-vehicle time and late time, that can be used for economic appraisal purposes. Overall, we find most passenger...
Traffic Engineering Control, 2007
Representing capacity constaints of transit vehicles, for networks where the vehicle capacities a... more Representing capacity constaints of transit vehicles, for networks where the vehicle capacities are small and the buses do not operate to timetables, requires an accurate representaton of the impacts on passenger costs and flows, and their day-to-day variability. This paper presents a frequency-based Markov process model for transit assignment that considers the day-to-day dynamics of the transit network, whereby line frequencies are used to parameterise distributions of vehicle arrivals and the passenger flows are constrained to the individual vehicle capacities.
Networks and Spatial Economics, 2007
... Files: UMTRIS. Media Type: Print. Pagination: pp 483-505. Authors: Teklu, Fitsum. University ... more ... Files: UMTRIS. Media Type: Print. Pagination: pp 483-505. Authors: Teklu, Fitsum. University of Leeds. Watling, David. University of Leeds. Connors, Richard D. University of Leeds. Monograph Title: Transportation and Traffic Theory 2007. Monograph Accession #: 01076679. ...
Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 2007
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2020
Abstract Direct demand models estimated to ticket sales data have for many years provided evidenc... more Abstract Direct demand models estimated to ticket sales data have for many years provided evidence on how key variables influence rail demand in Great Britain. Nonetheless, there has been relatively little estimation of demand models disaggregated by ticket type which would provide own and cross-price elasticities that can inform the pricing of different ticket products. We here report such enhanced models estimated on large data sets and exploiting the relationships of economic theory within a demand system. In addition, a complementary market research exercise is undertaken that itself provides ticket specific own and cross-elasticities and which also supports the estimation of models jointly based on actual and stated behaviour. We conclude that the demand systems approach can recover robust ticket specific own-elasticities but that there are econometric difficulties in estimating cross-elasticities even using supporting economic theory, so that cross-elasticities between tickets are better deduced from these own-elasticities than estimated. This contrasts with the convention in the railway industry in Great Britain where own and cross-elasticities are deduced from recommended conditional elasticity evidence. Market research also has a role to play and provides own-elasticities that, as is common, are rather larger and cross-elasticities that are a little larger than those derived from ticket sales analysis. A key feature of this work is to reconcile those two approaches by scaling the market research elasticities using ticket sales data. This further supports our conclusion that generating robust own-elasticities and deducing cross-elasticities from these is currently the most fruitful method of obtaining a full set of own- and cross-elasticities for different ticket types within a demand system framework, and that this approach is superior to the conventional single equation approach.
Transportation, 2019
Recovery time in the rail industry is the additional time that is included in train timetables ov... more Recovery time in the rail industry is the additional time that is included in train timetables over and above the minimum journey time necessary often with the explicit aim of improving punctuality. Recovery time is widely used in railways in a number of countries but prior to this study there has been no investigation of the rail users’ point of view. Perceived recovery time, such as being held outside stations and prolonged stops at stations, might have some premium valuation due to the frustration caused. If perceived recovery time in train timetables does carry a premium, then the benefits of improved punctuality achieved by it will be reduced. This paper is the first to investigate passengers’ views and preferences on the use of recovery time. We summarise the findings of a large study and provide estimates of passengers’ valuations of recovery time, both relative to in-vehicle time and late time, that can be used for economic appraisal purposes. Overall, we find most passenger...
Traffic Engineering Control, 2007
Representing capacity constaints of transit vehicles, for networks where the vehicle capacities a... more Representing capacity constaints of transit vehicles, for networks where the vehicle capacities are small and the buses do not operate to timetables, requires an accurate representaton of the impacts on passenger costs and flows, and their day-to-day variability. This paper presents a frequency-based Markov process model for transit assignment that considers the day-to-day dynamics of the transit network, whereby line frequencies are used to parameterise distributions of vehicle arrivals and the passenger flows are constrained to the individual vehicle capacities.
Networks and Spatial Economics, 2007
... Files: UMTRIS. Media Type: Print. Pagination: pp 483-505. Authors: Teklu, Fitsum. University ... more ... Files: UMTRIS. Media Type: Print. Pagination: pp 483-505. Authors: Teklu, Fitsum. University of Leeds. Watling, David. University of Leeds. Connors, Richard D. University of Leeds. Monograph Title: Transportation and Traffic Theory 2007. Monograph Accession #: 01076679. ...
Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering, 2007