Garth Fletcher - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Garth Fletcher
Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 1996
We have been oversold on the base rate fallacy in probabilistic judgment from an empirical, norma... more We have been oversold on the base rate fallacy in probabilistic judgment from an empirical, normative, and methodological standpoint. At the empirical level, a thorough examination of the base rate literature (including the famous lawyer–engineer problem) does not support the conventional wisdom that people routinely ignore base rates. Quite the contrary, the literature shows that base rates are almost always used and that their degree of use depends on task structure and representation. Specifically, base rates play a relatively larger role in tasks where base rates are implicitly learned or can be represented in frequentist terms. Base rates are also used more when they are reliable and relatively more diagnostic than available individuating information. At the normative level, the base rate fallacy should be rejected because few tasks map unambiguously into the narrow framework that is held up as the standard of good decision making. Mechanical applications of Bayes's theorem to identify performance errors are inappropriate when (1) key assumptions of the model are either unchecked or grossly violated, and (2) no attempt is made to identify the decision maker's goals, values, and task assumptions. Methodologically, the current approach is criticized for its failure to consider how the ambiguous, unreliable, and unstable base rates of the real world are and should be used. Where decision makers' assumptions and goals vary, and where performance criteria are complex, the traditional Bayesian standard is insufficient. Even where predictive accuracy is the goal in commonly defined problems, there may be situations (e.g., informationally redundant environments) in which base rates can be ignored with impunity. A more ecologically valid research program is called for. This program should emphasize the development of prescriptive theory in rich, realistic decision environments.
The current research tested the domain specificity sociometer model proposed by Kirkpatrick and E... more The current research tested the domain specificity sociometer model proposed by Kirkpatrick and Ellis (2001). Study 1 examined the association between relationship quality and the mediating role of state self-esteem (
Journal of personality and social psychology, 2015
In the current research, we tested the extent to which attachment insecurity produces inaccurate ... more In the current research, we tested the extent to which attachment insecurity produces inaccurate and biased perceptions of intimate partners' emotions and whether more negative perceptions of partners' emotions elicit the damaging behavior often associated with attachment insecurity. Perceptions of partners' emotions as well as partners' actual emotions were assessed multiple times in couples' conflict discussions (Study 1) and daily during a 3-week period in 2 independent samples (Study 2). Using partners' reports of their own emotional experiences as the accuracy benchmark, we simultaneously tested whether attachment insecurity was associated with the degree to which individuals (a) accurately detected shifts in their partners' negative emotions (tracking accuracy), and (b) perceived their partners were feeling more negative relationship-related emotions than they actually experienced (directional bias). Highly avoidant perceivers were equally accurate ...
Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science, 2015
This article evaluates a thesis containing three interconnected propositions. First, romantic lov... more This article evaluates a thesis containing three interconnected propositions. First, romantic love is a "commitment device" for motivating pair-bonding in humans. Second, pair-bonding facilitated the idiosyncratic life history of hominins, helping to provide the massive investment required to rear children. Third, managing long-term pair bonds (along with family relationships) facilitated the evolution of social intelligence and cooperative skills. We evaluate this thesis by integrating evidence from a broad range of scientific disciplines. First, consistent with the claim that romantic love is an evolved commitment device, our review suggests that it is universal; suppresses mate-search mechanisms; has specific behavioral, hormonal, and neuropsychological signatures; and is linked to better health and survival. Second, we consider challenges to this thesis posed by the existence of arranged marriage, polygyny, divorce, and infidelity. Third, we show how the intimate relat...
Current Opinion in Psychology, 2015
Personal Relationships, 2010
ABSTRACT An experiment investigated the independent and combined effects of receiving feedback fr... more ABSTRACT An experiment investigated the independent and combined effects of receiving feedback from romantic partners that varied in both accuracy (i.e., profile agreement) and positive bias, as compared with one's self-perceptions. Both members of 55 romantically involved couples were randomly assigned to receive either high or low levels of accurate or positively biased feedback ostensibly created from a comparison between their self-ratings and their partner's appraisals. After receiving this feedback, participants rated how positive and intimate they felt in their relationships. As expected, both accuracy and positive bias in partner feedback had independent positive effects. Importantly, positive bias and accuracy were found to operate additively; participants who received feedback that was simultaneously positively biased and accurate rated their relationships particularly positively.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2015
Proceedings of Vehicular Technology Conference - VTC, 1996
... Alfonso Fernhdez-Durk, Tom& Sanjuin Alcatet Research Division * Jan Sevenhans Alcatel Bel... more ... Alfonso Fernhdez-Durk, Tom& Sanjuin Alcatet Research Division * Jan Sevenhans Alcatel Bell, Belgium Jacques Dulongpont Alcatel Mobile ... John Barrett National Microelectronics Research Centre, Ireland Terje Rflste Nera Satcom, Norway Graham Fletcher Swindon Silicon ...
Personality & social psychology bulletin, 2004
Prior research and theory suggest that people use three main sets of criteria in mate selection: ... more Prior research and theory suggest that people use three main sets of criteria in mate selection: warmth/trustworthiness, attractiveness/vitality, and status/resources. In two studies, men and women made mating choices between pairs of hypothetical potential partners and were forced to make trade-offs among these three criteria (e.g., warm and homely vs. cold and attractive). As predicted, women (relative to men) placed greater importance on warmth/trustworthiness and status/resources in a potential mate but less importance on attractiveness/vitality. In addition, as expected (a) ratings of ideal standards partly mediated the link between sex and mate choices, (b) ideal standards declined in importance from long-term to short-term relationships, with the exception of attractiveness/vitality, and unexpectedly, (c) sex differences were higher for long-term (compared to short-term) mate choice. Explanations and implications are discussed.
Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 1999
Psychological Bulletin, 2010
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 2014
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 2001
Personal Relationships, 2000
The Journal of Social Psychology, 2014
Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, 1999
Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology, 1990
Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 1996
We have been oversold on the base rate fallacy in probabilistic judgment from an empirical, norma... more We have been oversold on the base rate fallacy in probabilistic judgment from an empirical, normative, and methodological standpoint. At the empirical level, a thorough examination of the base rate literature (including the famous lawyer–engineer problem) does not support the conventional wisdom that people routinely ignore base rates. Quite the contrary, the literature shows that base rates are almost always used and that their degree of use depends on task structure and representation. Specifically, base rates play a relatively larger role in tasks where base rates are implicitly learned or can be represented in frequentist terms. Base rates are also used more when they are reliable and relatively more diagnostic than available individuating information. At the normative level, the base rate fallacy should be rejected because few tasks map unambiguously into the narrow framework that is held up as the standard of good decision making. Mechanical applications of Bayes's theorem to identify performance errors are inappropriate when (1) key assumptions of the model are either unchecked or grossly violated, and (2) no attempt is made to identify the decision maker's goals, values, and task assumptions. Methodologically, the current approach is criticized for its failure to consider how the ambiguous, unreliable, and unstable base rates of the real world are and should be used. Where decision makers' assumptions and goals vary, and where performance criteria are complex, the traditional Bayesian standard is insufficient. Even where predictive accuracy is the goal in commonly defined problems, there may be situations (e.g., informationally redundant environments) in which base rates can be ignored with impunity. A more ecologically valid research program is called for. This program should emphasize the development of prescriptive theory in rich, realistic decision environments.
The current research tested the domain specificity sociometer model proposed by Kirkpatrick and E... more The current research tested the domain specificity sociometer model proposed by Kirkpatrick and Ellis (2001). Study 1 examined the association between relationship quality and the mediating role of state self-esteem (
Journal of personality and social psychology, 2015
In the current research, we tested the extent to which attachment insecurity produces inaccurate ... more In the current research, we tested the extent to which attachment insecurity produces inaccurate and biased perceptions of intimate partners' emotions and whether more negative perceptions of partners' emotions elicit the damaging behavior often associated with attachment insecurity. Perceptions of partners' emotions as well as partners' actual emotions were assessed multiple times in couples' conflict discussions (Study 1) and daily during a 3-week period in 2 independent samples (Study 2). Using partners' reports of their own emotional experiences as the accuracy benchmark, we simultaneously tested whether attachment insecurity was associated with the degree to which individuals (a) accurately detected shifts in their partners' negative emotions (tracking accuracy), and (b) perceived their partners were feeling more negative relationship-related emotions than they actually experienced (directional bias). Highly avoidant perceivers were equally accurate ...
Perspectives on psychological science : a journal of the Association for Psychological Science, 2015
This article evaluates a thesis containing three interconnected propositions. First, romantic lov... more This article evaluates a thesis containing three interconnected propositions. First, romantic love is a "commitment device" for motivating pair-bonding in humans. Second, pair-bonding facilitated the idiosyncratic life history of hominins, helping to provide the massive investment required to rear children. Third, managing long-term pair bonds (along with family relationships) facilitated the evolution of social intelligence and cooperative skills. We evaluate this thesis by integrating evidence from a broad range of scientific disciplines. First, consistent with the claim that romantic love is an evolved commitment device, our review suggests that it is universal; suppresses mate-search mechanisms; has specific behavioral, hormonal, and neuropsychological signatures; and is linked to better health and survival. Second, we consider challenges to this thesis posed by the existence of arranged marriage, polygyny, divorce, and infidelity. Third, we show how the intimate relat...
Current Opinion in Psychology, 2015
Personal Relationships, 2010
ABSTRACT An experiment investigated the independent and combined effects of receiving feedback fr... more ABSTRACT An experiment investigated the independent and combined effects of receiving feedback from romantic partners that varied in both accuracy (i.e., profile agreement) and positive bias, as compared with one's self-perceptions. Both members of 55 romantically involved couples were randomly assigned to receive either high or low levels of accurate or positively biased feedback ostensibly created from a comparison between their self-ratings and their partner's appraisals. After receiving this feedback, participants rated how positive and intimate they felt in their relationships. As expected, both accuracy and positive bias in partner feedback had independent positive effects. Importantly, positive bias and accuracy were found to operate additively; participants who received feedback that was simultaneously positively biased and accurate rated their relationships particularly positively.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2015
Proceedings of Vehicular Technology Conference - VTC, 1996
... Alfonso Fernhdez-Durk, Tom& Sanjuin Alcatet Research Division * Jan Sevenhans Alcatel Bel... more ... Alfonso Fernhdez-Durk, Tom& Sanjuin Alcatet Research Division * Jan Sevenhans Alcatel Bell, Belgium Jacques Dulongpont Alcatel Mobile ... John Barrett National Microelectronics Research Centre, Ireland Terje Rflste Nera Satcom, Norway Graham Fletcher Swindon Silicon ...
Personality & social psychology bulletin, 2004
Prior research and theory suggest that people use three main sets of criteria in mate selection: ... more Prior research and theory suggest that people use three main sets of criteria in mate selection: warmth/trustworthiness, attractiveness/vitality, and status/resources. In two studies, men and women made mating choices between pairs of hypothetical potential partners and were forced to make trade-offs among these three criteria (e.g., warm and homely vs. cold and attractive). As predicted, women (relative to men) placed greater importance on warmth/trustworthiness and status/resources in a potential mate but less importance on attractiveness/vitality. In addition, as expected (a) ratings of ideal standards partly mediated the link between sex and mate choices, (b) ideal standards declined in importance from long-term to short-term relationships, with the exception of attractiveness/vitality, and unexpectedly, (c) sex differences were higher for long-term (compared to short-term) mate choice. Explanations and implications are discussed.
Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 1999
Psychological Bulletin, 2010
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 2014
Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 2001
Personal Relationships, 2000
The Journal of Social Psychology, 2014
Journal of Social and Personal Relationships, 1999
Journal of Social and Clinical Psychology, 1990