Forrest Council - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Uploads

Papers by Forrest Council

Research paper thumbnail of Traffic Safety Evaluation of Nighttime and Daytime Work Zones

Research paper thumbnail of Safety Data and Analysis in Developing Emphasis Area Plans

Research paper thumbnail of Accident Modification Factors for Traffic Engineering and ITS Improvements

... Bhagwant Persaud Craig Lyon DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING RYERSON UNIVERSITY Toronto, ON, C... more ... Bhagwant Persaud Craig Lyon DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING RYERSON UNIVERSITY Toronto, ON, Canada Ezra Hauer CONSULTANT ... Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Charles W. Niessner, Senior Program Officer Eileen P. Delaney, Director of ...

Research paper thumbnail of Paper No: 991438

Research paper thumbnail of Impact of Speed Limit Increases on Crash Injury Severity: Analysis of Single-Vehicle Crashes on North Carolina Interstate Highways

This paper introduces the ordered probit model as a new powerful technique for studying theimpact... more This paper introduces the ordered probit model as a new powerful technique for studying theimpacts of speed limit changes on crash injury severity and compares the findings of this modelwith a paired-comparison before/after evaluation.

Research paper thumbnail of Safety Impacts of Pavement Edge Drop-offs

Research paper thumbnail of Value of Research About the Safety Effect of Actions

Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board

Money ought to be spent on research that promises most value for the buck; but how is one to esti... more Money ought to be spent on research that promises most value for the buck; but how is one to estimate the value?. This paper suggests a logical and quantitative approach to estimating the valueforaclassofproposedroadsafetyresearchprojectsresearchtoestimatethesafetyeffectofvariousactions.Theaimofsuchresearchistoimprovingourabilitytopredict.Themoreaccuratelyonecanpredictthesafetyeffectofsomeactionthefewerincorrectdecisionswillbemade.Withmoredecisionscorrectinvestmentismorecost−effective.Thisiswhatgivessuchresearchitsvalue.Thetaskofassigningvalue for a class of proposed road safety research projectsresearch to estimate the safety effect of various actions. The aim of such research is to improving our ability to predict. The more accurately one can predict the safety effect of some action the fewer incorrect decisions will be made. With more decisions correct investment is more cost-effective. This is what gives such research its value. The task of assigning valueforaclassofproposedroadsafetyresearchprojectsresearchtoestimatethesafetyeffectofvariousactions.Theaimofsuchresearchistoimprovingourabilitytopredict.Themoreaccuratelyonecanpredictthesafetyeffectofsomeactionthefewerincorrectdecisionswillbemade.Withmoredecisionscorrectinvestmentismorecost−effective.Thisiswhatgivessuchresearchitsvalue.Thetaskofassigning-value to a proposed research is doable. The logic and the computations are described. The estimated $-value, when coupled with the cost of research, can used to prioritize proposed research projects.

Research paper thumbnail of Child restraints workshop series: Volume I

Research paper thumbnail of Value of Research on Safety Effects of Actions

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2012

Money ought to be spent on research that promises most value for the buck; but how is one to esti... more Money ought to be spent on research that promises most value for the buck; but how is one to estimate the value?. This paper suggests a logical and quantitative approach to estimating the valueforaclassofproposedroadsafetyresearchprojectsresearchtoestimatethesafetyeffectofvariousactions.Theaimofsuchresearchistoimprovingourabilitytopredict.Themoreaccuratelyonecanpredictthesafetyeffectofsomeactionthefewerincorrectdecisionswillbemade.Withmoredecisionscorrectinvestmentismorecost−effective.Thisiswhatgivessuchresearchitsvalue.Thetaskofassigningvalue for a class of proposed road safety research projectsresearch to estimate the safety effect of various actions. The aim of such research is to improving our ability to predict. The more accurately one can predict the safety effect of some action the fewer incorrect decisions will be made. With more decisions correct investment is more cost-effective. This is what gives such research its value. The task of assigning valueforaclassofproposedroadsafetyresearchprojectsresearchtoestimatethesafetyeffectofvariousactions.Theaimofsuchresearchistoimprovingourabilitytopredict.Themoreaccuratelyonecanpredictthesafetyeffectofsomeactionthefewerincorrectdecisionswillbemade.Withmoredecisionscorrectinvestmentismorecost−effective.Thisiswhatgivessuchresearchitsvalue.Thetaskofassigning-value to a proposed research is doable. The logic and the computations are described. The estimated $-value, when coupled with the cost of research, can used to prioritize proposed research projects.

Research paper thumbnail of Comprehensive and human capital crash costs by maximum police-reported injury severity within selected crash types

Annual proceedings / Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine. Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine, 2004

This paper presents estimates for both the economic and comprehensive costs per crash for three p... more This paper presents estimates for both the economic and comprehensive costs per crash for three police-coded severity groupings within 16 selected crash types and within two speed limit categories (<or=45 and >or=50 mph). The economic costs are hard dollar costs. The comprehensive costs include economic costs and quality of life losses. We merged previously developed costs per victim keyed on the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) into US crash data files that scored injuries in both the AIS and police-coded severity scales to produce per crash estimates. The most costly crashes were non-intersection fatal/disabling injury crashes on a road with a speed limit of 50 miles per hour or higher where multiple vehicles crashed head-on or a single vehicle struck a human (over 1.69 and $1.16 million per crash, respectively). The annual cost of police-reported run-off-road collisions, which include both rollovers and object impacts, represented 34% of total costs.

Research paper thumbnail of Effect of Speed Limit Increases on Crash Injury Severity: Analysis of Single-Vehicle Crashes on North Carolina Interstate Highways

Transportation Research Record, 1999

Page 1. 100 Paper No. 99-0975 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD 1665 The recent congressional action... more Page 1. 100 Paper No. 99-0975 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD 1665 The recent congressional action revoking the national maximum speed limits has rekindled the debate over safety and travel time tradeoff. The ...

Research paper thumbnail of Techniques for Predicting High-Risk Drivers for Alcohol Countermeasures: Volume I: Technical Report

Research paper thumbnail of Examination of Fault, Unsafe Driving Acts, and Total Harm in Car-Truck Collisions

Transportation Research Record, 2003

Crashes involving large trucks and passenger cars are important topics for research and counterme... more Crashes involving large trucks and passenger cars are important topics for research and countermeasure development since they represent more than 60% of all fatal truck crashes and because the passenger car occupant is much more likely to be killed. This study (a) examined “fault” in total car– ...

Research paper thumbnail of Role of Adverse Weather in Key Crash Types on Limited-Access: Roadways Implications for Advanced Weather Systems

Transportation Research Record, 1998

Adverse weather can reduce visibility and road surface friction and thus increase crash frequency... more Adverse weather can reduce visibility and road surface friction and thus increase crash frequency and injury severity. However, drivers may compensate for higher crash risk by reducing speeds, maintaining safe spacing, and driving more carefully. The impacts of adverse ...

Research paper thumbnail of Applying the Ordered Probit Model to Injury Severity in Truck-Passenger Car Rear-End Collisions

Transportation Research Record, 1998

Collisions between heavy trucks and passenger cars are a major concern because of the severity of... more Collisions between heavy trucks and passenger cars are a major concern because of the severity of injuries. This research has two objectives. One is to examine the impact of various factors on injuries to passenger car occupants involved in such collisions. Due to the complex ...

Research paper thumbnail of Injury Effects of Rollovers and Events Sequence in Single-Vehicle Crashes

Transportation Research Record, 2000

The effect that rollovers and tripping-event sequence surrounding rollover crashes have on the se... more The effect that rollovers and tripping-event sequence surrounding rollover crashes have on the severity of driver injury was explored. Three-year crash and inventory data from Michigan (N = 35,447) and Illinois (N = 24,296) were analyzed to explore the effect of rollover, while ...

Research paper thumbnail of Safety Effectiveness of Selected Treatments at Urban Signalized Intersections

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2008

This study conducted a before-after evaluation by means of the empirical Bayes methodology for fo... more This study conducted a before-after evaluation by means of the empirical Bayes methodology for four types of treatments at signalized intersections with data from Winston-Salem, North Carolina. The results indicated that changing to protected left-turn phasing ...

Research paper thumbnail of Three-Strand Cable Median Barrier in North Carolina: In-Service Evaluation

Transportation Research Record, 2001

By using historical crash data, several regression-type models were developed with which to estim... more By using historical crash data, several regression-type models were developed with which to estimate the effects of the installation of cable median barrier on crash rates for several crash types while taking into account several other factors associated with variation in ...

Research paper thumbnail of Multijurisdictional Safety Evaluation of Red Light Cameras

Transportation Research Record, 2005

... of Red Light Cameras Bhagwant Persaud, Forrest M. Council, Craig Lyon, Kimberly Eccles, andMi... more ... of Red Light Cameras Bhagwant Persaud, Forrest M. Council, Craig Lyon, Kimberly Eccles, andMike Griffith B. Persaud and C. Lyon, Department of Civil Engineering, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street, Toronto, Ontario M5B 2K3, Canada. ... 14 ) Fleck and Smith (15 ) ...

Research paper thumbnail of Severity Indexes for Roadside Objects

Transportation Research Record, 1996

Research paper thumbnail of Traffic Safety Evaluation of Nighttime and Daytime Work Zones

Research paper thumbnail of Safety Data and Analysis in Developing Emphasis Area Plans

Research paper thumbnail of Accident Modification Factors for Traffic Engineering and ITS Improvements

... Bhagwant Persaud Craig Lyon DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING RYERSON UNIVERSITY Toronto, ON, C... more ... Bhagwant Persaud Craig Lyon DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING RYERSON UNIVERSITY Toronto, ON, Canada Ezra Hauer CONSULTANT ... Deputy Director, Cooperative Research Programs Charles W. Niessner, Senior Program Officer Eileen P. Delaney, Director of ...

Research paper thumbnail of Paper No: 991438

Research paper thumbnail of Impact of Speed Limit Increases on Crash Injury Severity: Analysis of Single-Vehicle Crashes on North Carolina Interstate Highways

This paper introduces the ordered probit model as a new powerful technique for studying theimpact... more This paper introduces the ordered probit model as a new powerful technique for studying theimpacts of speed limit changes on crash injury severity and compares the findings of this modelwith a paired-comparison before/after evaluation.

Research paper thumbnail of Safety Impacts of Pavement Edge Drop-offs

Research paper thumbnail of Value of Research About the Safety Effect of Actions

Transportation Research Record Journal of the Transportation Research Board

Money ought to be spent on research that promises most value for the buck; but how is one to esti... more Money ought to be spent on research that promises most value for the buck; but how is one to estimate the value?. This paper suggests a logical and quantitative approach to estimating the valueforaclassofproposedroadsafetyresearchprojectsresearchtoestimatethesafetyeffectofvariousactions.Theaimofsuchresearchistoimprovingourabilitytopredict.Themoreaccuratelyonecanpredictthesafetyeffectofsomeactionthefewerincorrectdecisionswillbemade.Withmoredecisionscorrectinvestmentismorecost−effective.Thisiswhatgivessuchresearchitsvalue.Thetaskofassigningvalue for a class of proposed road safety research projectsresearch to estimate the safety effect of various actions. The aim of such research is to improving our ability to predict. The more accurately one can predict the safety effect of some action the fewer incorrect decisions will be made. With more decisions correct investment is more cost-effective. This is what gives such research its value. The task of assigning valueforaclassofproposedroadsafetyresearchprojectsresearchtoestimatethesafetyeffectofvariousactions.Theaimofsuchresearchistoimprovingourabilitytopredict.Themoreaccuratelyonecanpredictthesafetyeffectofsomeactionthefewerincorrectdecisionswillbemade.Withmoredecisionscorrectinvestmentismorecost−effective.Thisiswhatgivessuchresearchitsvalue.Thetaskofassigning-value to a proposed research is doable. The logic and the computations are described. The estimated $-value, when coupled with the cost of research, can used to prioritize proposed research projects.

Research paper thumbnail of Child restraints workshop series: Volume I

Research paper thumbnail of Value of Research on Safety Effects of Actions

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2012

Money ought to be spent on research that promises most value for the buck; but how is one to esti... more Money ought to be spent on research that promises most value for the buck; but how is one to estimate the value?. This paper suggests a logical and quantitative approach to estimating the valueforaclassofproposedroadsafetyresearchprojectsresearchtoestimatethesafetyeffectofvariousactions.Theaimofsuchresearchistoimprovingourabilitytopredict.Themoreaccuratelyonecanpredictthesafetyeffectofsomeactionthefewerincorrectdecisionswillbemade.Withmoredecisionscorrectinvestmentismorecost−effective.Thisiswhatgivessuchresearchitsvalue.Thetaskofassigningvalue for a class of proposed road safety research projectsresearch to estimate the safety effect of various actions. The aim of such research is to improving our ability to predict. The more accurately one can predict the safety effect of some action the fewer incorrect decisions will be made. With more decisions correct investment is more cost-effective. This is what gives such research its value. The task of assigning valueforaclassofproposedroadsafetyresearchprojectsresearchtoestimatethesafetyeffectofvariousactions.Theaimofsuchresearchistoimprovingourabilitytopredict.Themoreaccuratelyonecanpredictthesafetyeffectofsomeactionthefewerincorrectdecisionswillbemade.Withmoredecisionscorrectinvestmentismorecost−effective.Thisiswhatgivessuchresearchitsvalue.Thetaskofassigning-value to a proposed research is doable. The logic and the computations are described. The estimated $-value, when coupled with the cost of research, can used to prioritize proposed research projects.

Research paper thumbnail of Comprehensive and human capital crash costs by maximum police-reported injury severity within selected crash types

Annual proceedings / Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine. Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine, 2004

This paper presents estimates for both the economic and comprehensive costs per crash for three p... more This paper presents estimates for both the economic and comprehensive costs per crash for three police-coded severity groupings within 16 selected crash types and within two speed limit categories (<or=45 and >or=50 mph). The economic costs are hard dollar costs. The comprehensive costs include economic costs and quality of life losses. We merged previously developed costs per victim keyed on the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) into US crash data files that scored injuries in both the AIS and police-coded severity scales to produce per crash estimates. The most costly crashes were non-intersection fatal/disabling injury crashes on a road with a speed limit of 50 miles per hour or higher where multiple vehicles crashed head-on or a single vehicle struck a human (over 1.69 and $1.16 million per crash, respectively). The annual cost of police-reported run-off-road collisions, which include both rollovers and object impacts, represented 34% of total costs.

Research paper thumbnail of Effect of Speed Limit Increases on Crash Injury Severity: Analysis of Single-Vehicle Crashes on North Carolina Interstate Highways

Transportation Research Record, 1999

Page 1. 100 Paper No. 99-0975 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD 1665 The recent congressional action... more Page 1. 100 Paper No. 99-0975 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD 1665 The recent congressional action revoking the national maximum speed limits has rekindled the debate over safety and travel time tradeoff. The ...

Research paper thumbnail of Techniques for Predicting High-Risk Drivers for Alcohol Countermeasures: Volume I: Technical Report

Research paper thumbnail of Examination of Fault, Unsafe Driving Acts, and Total Harm in Car-Truck Collisions

Transportation Research Record, 2003

Crashes involving large trucks and passenger cars are important topics for research and counterme... more Crashes involving large trucks and passenger cars are important topics for research and countermeasure development since they represent more than 60% of all fatal truck crashes and because the passenger car occupant is much more likely to be killed. This study (a) examined “fault” in total car– ...

Research paper thumbnail of Role of Adverse Weather in Key Crash Types on Limited-Access: Roadways Implications for Advanced Weather Systems

Transportation Research Record, 1998

Adverse weather can reduce visibility and road surface friction and thus increase crash frequency... more Adverse weather can reduce visibility and road surface friction and thus increase crash frequency and injury severity. However, drivers may compensate for higher crash risk by reducing speeds, maintaining safe spacing, and driving more carefully. The impacts of adverse ...

Research paper thumbnail of Applying the Ordered Probit Model to Injury Severity in Truck-Passenger Car Rear-End Collisions

Transportation Research Record, 1998

Collisions between heavy trucks and passenger cars are a major concern because of the severity of... more Collisions between heavy trucks and passenger cars are a major concern because of the severity of injuries. This research has two objectives. One is to examine the impact of various factors on injuries to passenger car occupants involved in such collisions. Due to the complex ...

Research paper thumbnail of Injury Effects of Rollovers and Events Sequence in Single-Vehicle Crashes

Transportation Research Record, 2000

The effect that rollovers and tripping-event sequence surrounding rollover crashes have on the se... more The effect that rollovers and tripping-event sequence surrounding rollover crashes have on the severity of driver injury was explored. Three-year crash and inventory data from Michigan (N = 35,447) and Illinois (N = 24,296) were analyzed to explore the effect of rollover, while ...

Research paper thumbnail of Safety Effectiveness of Selected Treatments at Urban Signalized Intersections

Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2008

This study conducted a before-after evaluation by means of the empirical Bayes methodology for fo... more This study conducted a before-after evaluation by means of the empirical Bayes methodology for four types of treatments at signalized intersections with data from Winston-Salem, North Carolina. The results indicated that changing to protected left-turn phasing ...

Research paper thumbnail of Three-Strand Cable Median Barrier in North Carolina: In-Service Evaluation

Transportation Research Record, 2001

By using historical crash data, several regression-type models were developed with which to estim... more By using historical crash data, several regression-type models were developed with which to estimate the effects of the installation of cable median barrier on crash rates for several crash types while taking into account several other factors associated with variation in ...

Research paper thumbnail of Multijurisdictional Safety Evaluation of Red Light Cameras

Transportation Research Record, 2005

... of Red Light Cameras Bhagwant Persaud, Forrest M. Council, Craig Lyon, Kimberly Eccles, andMi... more ... of Red Light Cameras Bhagwant Persaud, Forrest M. Council, Craig Lyon, Kimberly Eccles, andMike Griffith B. Persaud and C. Lyon, Department of Civil Engineering, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street, Toronto, Ontario M5B 2K3, Canada. ... 14 ) Fleck and Smith (15 ) ...

Research paper thumbnail of Severity Indexes for Roadside Objects

Transportation Research Record, 1996