Franco Caron - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Franco Caron
Work Constraints and Spatial Representations -- the Case of Delivery Vehicles
Recherche - Transports - Sécurité, Jun 1, 1991
Trasporto pubblico locale: la sfida della deverticalizzazione
Risk analysis to assess completion time of a tram-line
Page 26 Risk Analysis to Assess Completion Time of a Tram-Line Enrico Cagno, Politecnico di Milan... more Page 26 Risk Analysis to Assess Completion Time of a Tram-Line Enrico Cagno, Politecnico di Milano, Italy Franco Caron, Politecnico di Milano, Italy Mauro Mancini, Politecnico di Milano, Italy Keywords: Schedule Risk Analysis, Simulation, Public Transports The paper ...
Project Control Using a Bayesian Approach
Advances in logistics, operations, and management science book series, 2019
The capability to elaborate a reliable estimate at completion for a project since the early stage... more The capability to elaborate a reliable estimate at completion for a project since the early stage of project execution is the prerequisite in order to provide an effective project control. The non-repetitive and uncertain nature of projects and the involvement of multiple stakeholders increase project complexity and raise the need to exploit all the available knowledge sources in order to improve the forecasting process. Therefore, drawing on a set of case studies, this chapter proposes a Bayesian approach to support the elaboration of the estimate at completion in those industrial fields where projects are denoted by a high level of uncertainty and complexity. The Bayesian approach allows the integration of experts' opinions, data records related to past projects, and data related to the performance of the ongoing project. Data from past projects are selected through a similarity analysis. The proposed approach shows a higher accuracy in comparison with the traditional formulas typical of the earned value management (EVM) methodology.
Chapter 21 - Analysis of External and Internal Risks in Project Early Phase
Bayesian Integration of Internal and External Views in Forecasting Project Performance
The Journal of Modern Project Management, Sep 3, 2013
This paper focuses on the project control process and aims at improving the accuracy of the Estim... more This paper focuses on the project control process and aims at improving the accuracy of the Estimate at Completion at Time Now, both in terms of cost and time. This objective requires the use of all the available information, in particular the information related to the actual performance of the current project, corresponding to the “internal view”, and the information related to the cluster of similar projects completed in the past, corresponding to the “external view”. In order to integrate both types of information, a Bayesian model has been developed, allowing for the updating of a prior estimate based on the external view by means of the data records collected during the progress of the current project, in order to obtain a posterior estimate of the final cost and duration of the project. This approach allows for the mitigation of possible biases which can affect the project control process, particularly at the project early stage. The Bayesian model has been applied to three cases in the Oil and Gas industry. Notwithstanding the great difference between the projects, the integration of the internal and external views in the Bayesian model resulted in a better accuracy compared to the traditional formulas used in the Earned Value Management approach and, moreover, a better stability of the estimates from the early stage along the entire life cycle of the project.
Project buffer sizing through historical errors
Evaluation of Projects in The oil Sector: Analysis and Results of a Probabilistic Approach
LCC-based identification of critical requirements in the procurement process
Il ruolo del project manager in Italia
Real Options
Springer eBooks, 2013
Trasporto pubblico locale: la sfida della deverticalizzazione
Financial Risk Analysis for a B.O.T. contract in the public transport field
Risk Dependency Analysis (RDA) in Complex Projects
Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online, Aug 21, 2018
Analisi dei Grandi Rischi nelle Società di Engineering & Contracting
Time Impact Analysis in engineering & contracting projects: an industrial case
The present article contributes to Project Management, in particular the control of a project in ... more The present article contributes to Project Management, in particular the control of a project in the private residential building sector. We propose a method, validated by the analysis of a specific residential building project, to provide adequate frequency monitoring (at least greater than that found in the case analysed) of progress in the completion of the site work. The proposed method derives from the application of the parametric approach used to estimate project costs, which is re-adapted to estimate of physical progress in the construction phase and provide with relative ease a clear picture of the actual progress on the site. The State of Works Progress as the first part of project control can, thereby, provide effective and continual support over time (Conroy & Soltan, 1998) to the Project Manager’s decisions and not merely produce data for their own sake or to fulfil a contractual obligation (Rossi, 2003); The resultant quantitative information may support a broad and in...
Project Risk Analysis
Project Risk Analysis, 2016
Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online, 2016
A reliable "estimate at completion" from the early stage of project execution is essential in ord... more A reliable "estimate at completion" from the early stage of project execution is essential in order to enable efficient and proactive project management. The nonrepetitive and uncertain nature of projects and the involvement of multiple stakeholders require the use and integration of multiple informative sources in order to provide accurate forecasts. Moreover, in the Oil & Gas industry, projects are characterized by a high level of complexity and financial impact. The article aims at multiple objectives such as introducing the need for the identification and utilization of all the available knowledge in order to improve the forecasting process; developing a Bayesian approach in order to integrate the diverse knowledge sources; exploring the integration of data records and experts' judgment related to the ongoing project; exploring the integration of data records related to projects completed in the past and to the ongoing project; and finally developing a Bayesian model capable of using three different knowledge sources, data records and experts' judgments related to the ongoing project and data records related to similar projects completed in the past. The model has been tested in a set of large and complex projects in the Oil & Gas industry, in order to forecast the final duration and the final cost. The results show a higher forecasting accuracy of the Bayesian model compared to the traditional earned value management (EVM) methodology.
Work Constraints and Spatial Representations -- the Case of Delivery Vehicles
Recherche - Transports - Sécurité, Jun 1, 1991
Trasporto pubblico locale: la sfida della deverticalizzazione
Risk analysis to assess completion time of a tram-line
Page 26 Risk Analysis to Assess Completion Time of a Tram-Line Enrico Cagno, Politecnico di Milan... more Page 26 Risk Analysis to Assess Completion Time of a Tram-Line Enrico Cagno, Politecnico di Milano, Italy Franco Caron, Politecnico di Milano, Italy Mauro Mancini, Politecnico di Milano, Italy Keywords: Schedule Risk Analysis, Simulation, Public Transports The paper ...
Project Control Using a Bayesian Approach
Advances in logistics, operations, and management science book series, 2019
The capability to elaborate a reliable estimate at completion for a project since the early stage... more The capability to elaborate a reliable estimate at completion for a project since the early stage of project execution is the prerequisite in order to provide an effective project control. The non-repetitive and uncertain nature of projects and the involvement of multiple stakeholders increase project complexity and raise the need to exploit all the available knowledge sources in order to improve the forecasting process. Therefore, drawing on a set of case studies, this chapter proposes a Bayesian approach to support the elaboration of the estimate at completion in those industrial fields where projects are denoted by a high level of uncertainty and complexity. The Bayesian approach allows the integration of experts' opinions, data records related to past projects, and data related to the performance of the ongoing project. Data from past projects are selected through a similarity analysis. The proposed approach shows a higher accuracy in comparison with the traditional formulas typical of the earned value management (EVM) methodology.
Chapter 21 - Analysis of External and Internal Risks in Project Early Phase
Bayesian Integration of Internal and External Views in Forecasting Project Performance
The Journal of Modern Project Management, Sep 3, 2013
This paper focuses on the project control process and aims at improving the accuracy of the Estim... more This paper focuses on the project control process and aims at improving the accuracy of the Estimate at Completion at Time Now, both in terms of cost and time. This objective requires the use of all the available information, in particular the information related to the actual performance of the current project, corresponding to the “internal view”, and the information related to the cluster of similar projects completed in the past, corresponding to the “external view”. In order to integrate both types of information, a Bayesian model has been developed, allowing for the updating of a prior estimate based on the external view by means of the data records collected during the progress of the current project, in order to obtain a posterior estimate of the final cost and duration of the project. This approach allows for the mitigation of possible biases which can affect the project control process, particularly at the project early stage. The Bayesian model has been applied to three cases in the Oil and Gas industry. Notwithstanding the great difference between the projects, the integration of the internal and external views in the Bayesian model resulted in a better accuracy compared to the traditional formulas used in the Earned Value Management approach and, moreover, a better stability of the estimates from the early stage along the entire life cycle of the project.
Project buffer sizing through historical errors
Evaluation of Projects in The oil Sector: Analysis and Results of a Probabilistic Approach
LCC-based identification of critical requirements in the procurement process
Il ruolo del project manager in Italia
Real Options
Springer eBooks, 2013
Trasporto pubblico locale: la sfida della deverticalizzazione
Financial Risk Analysis for a B.O.T. contract in the public transport field
Risk Dependency Analysis (RDA) in Complex Projects
Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online, Aug 21, 2018
Analisi dei Grandi Rischi nelle Società di Engineering & Contracting
Time Impact Analysis in engineering & contracting projects: an industrial case
The present article contributes to Project Management, in particular the control of a project in ... more The present article contributes to Project Management, in particular the control of a project in the private residential building sector. We propose a method, validated by the analysis of a specific residential building project, to provide adequate frequency monitoring (at least greater than that found in the case analysed) of progress in the completion of the site work. The proposed method derives from the application of the parametric approach used to estimate project costs, which is re-adapted to estimate of physical progress in the construction phase and provide with relative ease a clear picture of the actual progress on the site. The State of Works Progress as the first part of project control can, thereby, provide effective and continual support over time (Conroy & Soltan, 1998) to the Project Manager’s decisions and not merely produce data for their own sake or to fulfil a contractual obligation (Rossi, 2003); The resultant quantitative information may support a broad and in...
Project Risk Analysis
Project Risk Analysis, 2016
Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online, 2016
A reliable "estimate at completion" from the early stage of project execution is essential in ord... more A reliable "estimate at completion" from the early stage of project execution is essential in order to enable efficient and proactive project management. The nonrepetitive and uncertain nature of projects and the involvement of multiple stakeholders require the use and integration of multiple informative sources in order to provide accurate forecasts. Moreover, in the Oil & Gas industry, projects are characterized by a high level of complexity and financial impact. The article aims at multiple objectives such as introducing the need for the identification and utilization of all the available knowledge in order to improve the forecasting process; developing a Bayesian approach in order to integrate the diverse knowledge sources; exploring the integration of data records and experts' judgment related to the ongoing project; exploring the integration of data records related to projects completed in the past and to the ongoing project; and finally developing a Bayesian model capable of using three different knowledge sources, data records and experts' judgments related to the ongoing project and data records related to similar projects completed in the past. The model has been tested in a set of large and complex projects in the Oil & Gas industry, in order to forecast the final duration and the final cost. The results show a higher forecasting accuracy of the Bayesian model compared to the traditional earned value management (EVM) methodology.