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Papers by Frank Van Kouwen
Title: The Quasta approach. Exploring new pathways to improve the use of knowledge in sustainabil... more Title: The Quasta approach. Exploring new pathways to improve the use of knowledge in sustainability challenges. Author: Kouwen, FA van. Year: 2007. ...
Environmental Modelling & Software, 2008
There is a dichotomy between advanced simulation models and flexible, simple tools for supporting... more There is a dichotomy between advanced simulation models and flexible, simple tools for supporting policy-making. The former is difficult to use for policy-makers and the latter lacks in analytical value. It is a step forward to link these two types of tools in a way that enables the analytical value of the advanced models, while retaining the flexibility and comprehensibility of the simple tools. This paper presents a framework for such a linkage. The framework is based on an interactive cognitive mapping tool, which uses the qualitative probabilistic network (QPN) formalism to make qualitative (sign-based) calculations. This paper shows that there are several differences that need to be bridged. Each of these is discussed and approaches are presented. It is shown that (1) QPNs can be linked consistently to models with deterministic functions and continuous variables; (2) it is possible to deal with spatially and temporally explicit information; (3) despite the fact that QPNs must be a-cyclic, it is possible to capture feedback loops in a QPN-based tool. To prevent that negative feedback loops automatically result in ambiguous influences, we used a heuristic approach. The framework has been illustrated by analysing two models from literature with the QPN-based method.
Environment and Planning A, 2009
The environmental management and planning community is struggling with a gap between knowledge an... more The environmental management and planning community is struggling with a gap between knowledge and policy making. To bridge this gap,`decision support systems',`planning support systems', and other computer tools have been developed to make knowledge about complex issues more accessible for policy makers. However, the use of these systems in practice is limited. One major reason for this is that these systems are designed for well-defined problems, whereas in practice there is often a lack of stakeholder consensus on the problem structure. The aim of this paper is to present, and explore the potential of, a new approach for decision and planning support. The Quasta tool aims at facilitating participatory problem structuring through computer-supported cognitive mapping. The tool, allowing qualitative exploration of scenarios and simultaneous forecasting and backcasting, is tested in four participatory problem-structuring workshops, in which various environmental issues have been discussed. Evaluations of these workshops show that this approach (1) helps stakeholders to become aware of causal relationships, (2) is useful for a qualitative exploration of scenarios, (3) identifies the need for further (in-depth) knowledge, and (4) has a low threshold for nontechnicians.
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 2009
Qualitative probabilistic networks (QPNs) are basically qualitative derivations of Bayesian belie... more Qualitative probabilistic networks (QPNs) are basically qualitative derivations of Bayesian belief networks. Originally, QPNs were designed to improve the speed of the construction and calculation of these networks, at the cost of specificity of the result. The formalism can also be used to facilitate cognitive mapping by means of inference in sign-based causal diagrams. Whatever the type of application, any computer based use of QPNs requires an algorithm capable of propagating information throughout the networks. Such an algorithm was developed in the 1990s. This polynomial time sign-propagation algorithm is explicitly or implicitly used in most existing QPN studies. This paper firstly shows that two types of undesired results may occur with the original sign-propagation algorithm: the results can be (1) less specific than possible at the given level of abstraction, or, more seriously (2) incorrect. Secondly, the paper identifies the causes underlying these problems. Thirdly, this paper presents an adapted sign-propagation algorithm. The worst-case running time of the adapted algorithm is still polynomial in the number of arrows. The results of the new algorithm have been compared with those of the original algorithm by applying both algorithms to a real-life constructed cognitive map. It is shown that the problems of the original algorithm are indeed prevented with the adapted algorithm.
Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) is struggling with a lack of sciencemanagement integrat... more Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) is struggling with a lack of sciencemanagement integration. Many computer systems, usually known as “decision support systems”, have been developed with the intention to make scientific knowledge about complex systems more accessible for coastal managers. These tools, allowing a multidisciplinary approach with multi-criteria analyses, are designed for well-defined, structured problems. However, in practice stakeholder consensus on the problem structure is usually lacking. Aim of this paper is to explore the practical opportunities for the new so-called Quasta approach to structure complex problems in a group setting. This approach is based on a combination of Cognitive Mapping and Qualitative Probabilistic Networks. It comprehends a new type of computer system which is quite simple and flexible as well. The tool is tested in two workshops in which various coastal management issues were discussed. Evaluations of these workshops show that (1) ...
Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) is struggling with a lack of science-management integra... more Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) is struggling with a lack of science-management integration. Many computer systems, usually known as “decision support systems”, have been developed with the intention to make scientific knowledge about complex systems more accessible for coastal managers. These tools, allowing a multi-disciplinary approach with multi-criteria analyses, are designed for well-defined, structured problems. However, in practice stakeholder consensus on the problem structure is usually lacking. Aim of this paper is to explore the practical opportunities for the new so-called Quasta approach to structure complex problems in a group setting. This approach is based on a combination of Cognitive Mapping and Qualitative Probabilistic Networks. It comprehends a new type of computer system which is quite simple and flexible as well. The tool is tested in two workshops in which various coastal management issues were discussed. Evaluations of these workshops show that (1...
With regard to environmental decision-making, the field of conceptual modelling is primarily focu... more With regard to environmental decision-making, the field of conceptual modelling is primarily focused on representation and visualisation. As such, the 'soft' problem structuring methods have limited analytical value. On the other hand, quantitative analyses with various types of 'hard' models lack in flexibility and versatility. The Quasta approach as presented in this paper aims to bridge the gap between soft and hard systems by allowing qualitative analysis on the basis of a purely conceptual model. The method can be used to identify the key elements to be modelled in a quantitative system, in order to address the problems as captured in the conceptual model.
Coastal Management, 2007
The use of Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) has decli... more The use of Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) has declined since the 1990s. In this article we investigate the opportunities for enhancing the applicability of ICZM-DSSs by considering the following research questions: (1) “What DSS functionalities are important for ICZM decision-making?” and (2) “which of these functionalities are part of present-day ICZM-DSS tools?” The first question has been answered by a literature survey. We identified knowledge- and process-related ICZM challenges and DSS functionalities that may help in meeting these challenges. For the second question, a selection of ICZM-DSS tools has been evaluated. The study shows none of the tools have all of the identified functionalities. The tools support either problem structuring/exploration or impact assessment while none of the tools manages to combine these functions. The implications for both DSS users (coastal managers) and DSS developers are discussed.
Title: The Quasta approach. Exploring new pathways to improve the use of knowledge in sustainabil... more Title: The Quasta approach. Exploring new pathways to improve the use of knowledge in sustainability challenges. Author: Kouwen, FA van. Year: 2007. ...
Environmental Modelling & Software, 2008
There is a dichotomy between advanced simulation models and flexible, simple tools for supporting... more There is a dichotomy between advanced simulation models and flexible, simple tools for supporting policy-making. The former is difficult to use for policy-makers and the latter lacks in analytical value. It is a step forward to link these two types of tools in a way that enables the analytical value of the advanced models, while retaining the flexibility and comprehensibility of the simple tools. This paper presents a framework for such a linkage. The framework is based on an interactive cognitive mapping tool, which uses the qualitative probabilistic network (QPN) formalism to make qualitative (sign-based) calculations. This paper shows that there are several differences that need to be bridged. Each of these is discussed and approaches are presented. It is shown that (1) QPNs can be linked consistently to models with deterministic functions and continuous variables; (2) it is possible to deal with spatially and temporally explicit information; (3) despite the fact that QPNs must be a-cyclic, it is possible to capture feedback loops in a QPN-based tool. To prevent that negative feedback loops automatically result in ambiguous influences, we used a heuristic approach. The framework has been illustrated by analysing two models from literature with the QPN-based method.
Environment and Planning A, 2009
The environmental management and planning community is struggling with a gap between knowledge an... more The environmental management and planning community is struggling with a gap between knowledge and policy making. To bridge this gap,`decision support systems',`planning support systems', and other computer tools have been developed to make knowledge about complex issues more accessible for policy makers. However, the use of these systems in practice is limited. One major reason for this is that these systems are designed for well-defined problems, whereas in practice there is often a lack of stakeholder consensus on the problem structure. The aim of this paper is to present, and explore the potential of, a new approach for decision and planning support. The Quasta tool aims at facilitating participatory problem structuring through computer-supported cognitive mapping. The tool, allowing qualitative exploration of scenarios and simultaneous forecasting and backcasting, is tested in four participatory problem-structuring workshops, in which various environmental issues have been discussed. Evaluations of these workshops show that this approach (1) helps stakeholders to become aware of causal relationships, (2) is useful for a qualitative exploration of scenarios, (3) identifies the need for further (in-depth) knowledge, and (4) has a low threshold for nontechnicians.
International Journal of Approximate Reasoning, 2009
Qualitative probabilistic networks (QPNs) are basically qualitative derivations of Bayesian belie... more Qualitative probabilistic networks (QPNs) are basically qualitative derivations of Bayesian belief networks. Originally, QPNs were designed to improve the speed of the construction and calculation of these networks, at the cost of specificity of the result. The formalism can also be used to facilitate cognitive mapping by means of inference in sign-based causal diagrams. Whatever the type of application, any computer based use of QPNs requires an algorithm capable of propagating information throughout the networks. Such an algorithm was developed in the 1990s. This polynomial time sign-propagation algorithm is explicitly or implicitly used in most existing QPN studies. This paper firstly shows that two types of undesired results may occur with the original sign-propagation algorithm: the results can be (1) less specific than possible at the given level of abstraction, or, more seriously (2) incorrect. Secondly, the paper identifies the causes underlying these problems. Thirdly, this paper presents an adapted sign-propagation algorithm. The worst-case running time of the adapted algorithm is still polynomial in the number of arrows. The results of the new algorithm have been compared with those of the original algorithm by applying both algorithms to a real-life constructed cognitive map. It is shown that the problems of the original algorithm are indeed prevented with the adapted algorithm.
Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) is struggling with a lack of sciencemanagement integrat... more Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) is struggling with a lack of sciencemanagement integration. Many computer systems, usually known as “decision support systems”, have been developed with the intention to make scientific knowledge about complex systems more accessible for coastal managers. These tools, allowing a multidisciplinary approach with multi-criteria analyses, are designed for well-defined, structured problems. However, in practice stakeholder consensus on the problem structure is usually lacking. Aim of this paper is to explore the practical opportunities for the new so-called Quasta approach to structure complex problems in a group setting. This approach is based on a combination of Cognitive Mapping and Qualitative Probabilistic Networks. It comprehends a new type of computer system which is quite simple and flexible as well. The tool is tested in two workshops in which various coastal management issues were discussed. Evaluations of these workshops show that (1) ...
Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) is struggling with a lack of science-management integra... more Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) is struggling with a lack of science-management integration. Many computer systems, usually known as “decision support systems”, have been developed with the intention to make scientific knowledge about complex systems more accessible for coastal managers. These tools, allowing a multi-disciplinary approach with multi-criteria analyses, are designed for well-defined, structured problems. However, in practice stakeholder consensus on the problem structure is usually lacking. Aim of this paper is to explore the practical opportunities for the new so-called Quasta approach to structure complex problems in a group setting. This approach is based on a combination of Cognitive Mapping and Qualitative Probabilistic Networks. It comprehends a new type of computer system which is quite simple and flexible as well. The tool is tested in two workshops in which various coastal management issues were discussed. Evaluations of these workshops show that (1...
With regard to environmental decision-making, the field of conceptual modelling is primarily focu... more With regard to environmental decision-making, the field of conceptual modelling is primarily focused on representation and visualisation. As such, the 'soft' problem structuring methods have limited analytical value. On the other hand, quantitative analyses with various types of 'hard' models lack in flexibility and versatility. The Quasta approach as presented in this paper aims to bridge the gap between soft and hard systems by allowing qualitative analysis on the basis of a purely conceptual model. The method can be used to identify the key elements to be modelled in a quantitative system, in order to address the problems as captured in the conceptual model.
Coastal Management, 2007
The use of Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) has decli... more The use of Decision Support Systems (DSSs) in Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) has declined since the 1990s. In this article we investigate the opportunities for enhancing the applicability of ICZM-DSSs by considering the following research questions: (1) “What DSS functionalities are important for ICZM decision-making?” and (2) “which of these functionalities are part of present-day ICZM-DSS tools?” The first question has been answered by a literature survey. We identified knowledge- and process-related ICZM challenges and DSS functionalities that may help in meeting these challenges. For the second question, a selection of ICZM-DSS tools has been evaluated. The study shows none of the tools have all of the identified functionalities. The tools support either problem structuring/exploration or impact assessment while none of the tools manages to combine these functions. The implications for both DSS users (coastal managers) and DSS developers are discussed.