GEORGETA Maris Muntean - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Uploads
Papers by GEORGETA Maris Muntean
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), Feb 18, 2021
We present an empirical model to estimate the probability that a high speed stream produced by a ... more We present an empirical model to estimate the probability that a high speed stream produced by a coronal hole will be associated with a geomagnetic storm or not. The model is applied to a database build using the HSS catalogue available on the Institute of Geodynamics webpage at http://www.geodin.ro/hss-sc23/. We present the structure of the catalogue as well as a statistical analysis of these currents. We estimate that the model proposed may correctly predict the association or disassociation of a HSS that is generated by a coronal hole with a geomagnetic storm with a 80% efficiency.
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2015
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, May 1, 2014
Solar Physics, May 1, 2022
Annales Geophysicae, 2013
In this paper we analyse 25 Earth-directed and strongly geoeffective interplanetary coronal mass ... more In this paper we analyse 25 Earth-directed and strongly geoeffective interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) which occurred during solar cycle 23, using data provided by instruments on SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory), ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) and geomagnetic stations. We also examine the in situ parameters, the energy transfer into magnetosphere, and the geomagnetic indexes. We compare observed travel times with those calculated by observed speeds projected into the plane of the sky and de-projected by a simple model. The best fit was found with the projected speeds. No correlation was found between the importance of a flare and the geomagnetic Dst (disturbance storm time) index. By comparing the in situ parameters with the Dst index we find a strong connection between some of these parameters (such as Bz, Bs • V and the energy transfer into the magnetosphere) with the strength of the geomagnetic storm. No correlation was found with proton density and plasma temperature. A superposed epoch analysis revealed a strong dependence of the Dst index on the southward component of interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, and to the Akasofu coupling function, which evaluates the energy transfer between the ICME and the magnetosphere. The analysis also showed that the geomagnetic field at higher latitudes is disturbed before the field around the Earth's equator.
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2019
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are pieces of the puzzle that drive space weather. Numerous methods... more Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are pieces of the puzzle that drive space weather. Numerous methods (theoretical, numerical and empirical) are being used to predict whether the CME will be geoeffective or not. We present here an attempt to predict the geoeffectiveness of a given CME using a modified version of logistic regression model proposed by Srivastava (2005), using only initial CME parameters. Our model attempts to forecast if the CME will be associated with geomagnetic storm defined by a minimum Dst value <-30 nT. We applied this modified logistic regression model for CMEs detected by LASCO during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 (April 1, 2010 to June 30, 2011). Although the hit rate and proportion correctness were not promising for the training CME set, we obtained good hit rates and proportion correctness for the validation set. We expect to improve the model upon applying it to a dataset comprising
We present an empirical model to estimate the probability that a high speed stream produced by a ... more We present an empirical model to estimate the probability that a high speed stream produced by a coronal hole will be associated with a geomagnetic storm or not. The model is applied to a database build using the HSS catalogue available on the Institute of Geodynamics webpage at http://www.geodin.ro/hss-sc23/. We present the structure of the catalogue as well as a statistical analysis of these currents. We estimate that the model proposed may correctly predict the association or disassociation of a HSS that is generated by a coronal hole with a geomagnetic storm with a 80% efficiency.
Romanian Astronomical Journal, 2006
Romanian Astronomical Journal Supplement, Vol. 16, Proceedings of the Scientific Session, Scienti... more Romanian Astronomical Journal Supplement, Vol. 16, Proceedings of the Scientific Session, Scientific Programs and Astronomy Education in See and Ukraine, Bucharest, Romania, 16--17 September 2005. Edited by Magda Stavinschi and Vasile Mioc., p. 229
Revue Roumaine de Geophysique, Mar 1, 2014
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2015
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, May 1, 2014
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) structure, determined by the solar magnetic field and its var... more Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) structure, determined by the solar magnetic field and its variability, is responsible for an essential part of the geomagnetic perturbations. IMF in the terrestrial orbital plane is structured into two or four sectors with opposite direction of the magnetic field, “away” and “towards” the Sun so that the Earth is passing through the opposite magnetic structures during a solar rotation (27 days). The magnetic structure of IMF is significantly varying during the 11-yr solar cycle.
On March 29, 2014 GOES detected a X1.0 solar flare in the central north-western part of the solar... more On March 29, 2014 GOES detected a X1.0 solar flare in the central north-western part of the solar disk. We present here its main characteristics and several interesting effects in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere. We chose this flare because of its seismic emission (a recent discovery in solar physics which is not yet fully understood) and its many associations with different wavelength signatures. Seismic signatures share the same location (projected on the solar disk) as the hard X-ray emission suggesting that the energy released by the electrons is responsible for the excitation of the acoustic emission. Ground based instruments have detected a disturbance in the propagation of the terrestrial radio transmission. A flash in the extreme UV radiation influenced the ionization in the Earth's upper atmosphere and was seen as a sudden ionospheric disturbance (SID). Several ground based magnetometers have detected a magnetic crochet. We investigate the main emissions ch...
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), Feb 18, 2021
We present an empirical model to estimate the probability that a high speed stream produced by a ... more We present an empirical model to estimate the probability that a high speed stream produced by a coronal hole will be associated with a geomagnetic storm or not. The model is applied to a database build using the HSS catalogue available on the Institute of Geodynamics webpage at http://www.geodin.ro/hss-sc23/. We present the structure of the catalogue as well as a statistical analysis of these currents. We estimate that the model proposed may correctly predict the association or disassociation of a HSS that is generated by a coronal hole with a geomagnetic storm with a 80% efficiency.
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2015
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, May 1, 2014
Solar Physics, May 1, 2022
Annales Geophysicae, 2013
In this paper we analyse 25 Earth-directed and strongly geoeffective interplanetary coronal mass ... more In this paper we analyse 25 Earth-directed and strongly geoeffective interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) which occurred during solar cycle 23, using data provided by instruments on SOHO (Solar and Heliospheric Observatory), ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) and geomagnetic stations. We also examine the in situ parameters, the energy transfer into magnetosphere, and the geomagnetic indexes. We compare observed travel times with those calculated by observed speeds projected into the plane of the sky and de-projected by a simple model. The best fit was found with the projected speeds. No correlation was found between the importance of a flare and the geomagnetic Dst (disturbance storm time) index. By comparing the in situ parameters with the Dst index we find a strong connection between some of these parameters (such as Bz, Bs • V and the energy transfer into the magnetosphere) with the strength of the geomagnetic storm. No correlation was found with proton density and plasma temperature. A superposed epoch analysis revealed a strong dependence of the Dst index on the southward component of interplanetary magnetic field, Bz, and to the Akasofu coupling function, which evaluates the energy transfer between the ICME and the magnetosphere. The analysis also showed that the geomagnetic field at higher latitudes is disturbed before the field around the Earth's equator.
Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2019
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are pieces of the puzzle that drive space weather. Numerous methods... more Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are pieces of the puzzle that drive space weather. Numerous methods (theoretical, numerical and empirical) are being used to predict whether the CME will be geoeffective or not. We present here an attempt to predict the geoeffectiveness of a given CME using a modified version of logistic regression model proposed by Srivastava (2005), using only initial CME parameters. Our model attempts to forecast if the CME will be associated with geomagnetic storm defined by a minimum Dst value <-30 nT. We applied this modified logistic regression model for CMEs detected by LASCO during the ascending phase of solar cycle 24 (April 1, 2010 to June 30, 2011). Although the hit rate and proportion correctness were not promising for the training CME set, we obtained good hit rates and proportion correctness for the validation set. We expect to improve the model upon applying it to a dataset comprising
We present an empirical model to estimate the probability that a high speed stream produced by a ... more We present an empirical model to estimate the probability that a high speed stream produced by a coronal hole will be associated with a geomagnetic storm or not. The model is applied to a database build using the HSS catalogue available on the Institute of Geodynamics webpage at http://www.geodin.ro/hss-sc23/. We present the structure of the catalogue as well as a statistical analysis of these currents. We estimate that the model proposed may correctly predict the association or disassociation of a HSS that is generated by a coronal hole with a geomagnetic storm with a 80% efficiency.
Romanian Astronomical Journal, 2006
Romanian Astronomical Journal Supplement, Vol. 16, Proceedings of the Scientific Session, Scienti... more Romanian Astronomical Journal Supplement, Vol. 16, Proceedings of the Scientific Session, Scientific Programs and Astronomy Education in See and Ukraine, Bucharest, Romania, 16--17 September 2005. Edited by Magda Stavinschi and Vasile Mioc., p. 229
Revue Roumaine de Geophysique, Mar 1, 2014
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Apr 1, 2015
EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, May 1, 2014
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) structure, determined by the solar magnetic field and its var... more Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) structure, determined by the solar magnetic field and its variability, is responsible for an essential part of the geomagnetic perturbations. IMF in the terrestrial orbital plane is structured into two or four sectors with opposite direction of the magnetic field, “away” and “towards” the Sun so that the Earth is passing through the opposite magnetic structures during a solar rotation (27 days). The magnetic structure of IMF is significantly varying during the 11-yr solar cycle.
On March 29, 2014 GOES detected a X1.0 solar flare in the central north-western part of the solar... more On March 29, 2014 GOES detected a X1.0 solar flare in the central north-western part of the solar disk. We present here its main characteristics and several interesting effects in the Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere. We chose this flare because of its seismic emission (a recent discovery in solar physics which is not yet fully understood) and its many associations with different wavelength signatures. Seismic signatures share the same location (projected on the solar disk) as the hard X-ray emission suggesting that the energy released by the electrons is responsible for the excitation of the acoustic emission. Ground based instruments have detected a disturbance in the propagation of the terrestrial radio transmission. A flash in the extreme UV radiation influenced the ionization in the Earth's upper atmosphere and was seen as a sudden ionospheric disturbance (SID). Several ground based magnetometers have detected a magnetic crochet. We investigate the main emissions ch...