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Papers by G. Roglic

BMC PUBLIC HEALTH, 2007

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major cause of mortality in developing countries, and in ... more Background: Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major cause of mortality in developing countries, and in these countries diabetes prevalence is increasing rapidly. Diabetes increases the risk of TB. Our aim was to assess the potential impact of diabetes as a risk factor for incident pulmonary tuberculosis, using India as an example. Methods: We constructed an epidemiological model using data on tuberculosis incidence, diabetes prevalence, population structure, and relative risk of tuberculosis associated with diabetes. We evaluated the contribution made by diabetes to both tuberculosis incidence, and to the difference between tuberculosis incidence in urban and rural areas. Results: In India in 2000 there were an estimated 20.7 million adults with diabetes, and 900,000 incident adult cases of pulmonary tuberculosis. Our calculations suggest that diabetes accounts for 14.8% (uncertainty range 7.1% to 23.8%) of pulmonary tuberculosis and 20.2% (8.3% to 41.9%) of smear-positive (i.e. infectious) tuberculosis. We estimate that the increased diabetes prevalence in urban areas is associated with a 15.2% greater smear-positive tuberculosis incidence in urban than rural areas-over a fifth of the estimated total difference. Conclusion: Diabetes makes a substantial contribution to the burden of incident tuberculosis in India, and the association is particularly strong for the infectious form of tuberculosis. The current diabetes epidemic may lead to a resurgence of tuberculosis in endemic regions, especially in urban areas. This potentially carries a risk of global spread with serious implications for tuberculosis control and the achievement of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. Background Tuberculosis remains a leading cause of death globally. In 2005 there were an estimated 8.8 million new cases of tuberculosis worldwide, with 1.9 million of those occur

To evaluate the impact on perinatal outcomes of universal gestational diabetes (GDM) screening ba... more To evaluate the impact on perinatal outcomes of universal gestational diabetes (GDM) screening based on 1999 WHO and IADPSG diagnostic criteria; to assess the quality of the evidence (GRADE) to support GDM screening. Simulation of a hypothetical cohort of community-based pregnant women with 10% GDM prevalence (1999 WHO). Most parameters were obtained from recent systematic reviews. Compared to no screening, screening based on 1999 WHO criteria (followed by treatment) reduced the incidence of large for gestational age (LGA) neonates by 0.53% (95% CI 0.37-0.74%; NNS=189) and of preeclampsia by 0.27% (0.10-0.45%; NNS=376). Screening based on IADPSG criteria reduced incidences by 0.85% (0.54-1.29%; NNS=117) and by 0.39% (0.15-0.65%; NNS=257), respectively. Compared to screening based on 1999 WHO criteria, screening with IADPSG criteria reduced the incidence of LGA by 0.32% (0.09-0.63%; NNS=309) and of preeclampsia by 0.12% (0.01-0.25; NNS=808). The quality of evidence for both screening approaches is very low. Universal screening for GDM has only a modest impact on pregnancy outcomes. The impact of screening based on IADPSG (vs. WHO, 1999) criteria is slightly larger. However, costs and resources should also be considered in local selection of a screening approach.

The lancet. Diabetes & endocrinology, 2014

Lifestyle interventions among people with impaired glucose tolerance reduce the incidence of diab... more Lifestyle interventions among people with impaired glucose tolerance reduce the incidence of diabetes, but their effect on all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality is unclear. We assessed the long-term effect of lifestyle intervention on long-term outcomes among adults with impaired glucose tolerance who participated in the Da Qing Diabetes Prevention Study. The study was a cluster randomised trial in which 33 clinics in Da Qing, China-serving 577 adults with impaired glucose tolerance-were randomised (1:1:1:1) to a control group or lifestyle intervention groups (diet or exercise or both). Patients were enrolled in 1986 and the intervention phase lasted for 6 years. In 2009, we followed up participants to assess the primary outcomes of cardiovascular mortality, all-cause mortality, and incidence of diabetes in the intention-to-treat population. Of the 577 patients, 439 were assigned to the intervention group and 138 were assigned to the control group (one refused baseline exam...

Diabetes Care, 2005

OBJECTIVE -To estimate the global number of excess deaths due to diabetes in the year 2000.

British Journal of General Practice, 2012

Diabetologia, 2010

This article presents the conclusions of a WHO Expert Consultation that evaluated the utility of ... more This article presents the conclusions of a WHO Expert Consultation that evaluated the utility of the 'metabolic syndrome' concept in relation to four key areas: pathophysiology, epidemiology, clinical work and public health. The metabolic syndrome is a concept that focuses attention on complex multifactorial health problems. While it may be considered useful as an educational concept, it has limited practical utility as a diagnostic or management Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (