Gabriel Ahlfeldt - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Gabriel Ahlfeldt
Journal of Urban Economics, 2019
We provide the first systematic documentation and analysis of a generation gap in direct democrac... more We provide the first systematic documentation and analysis of a generation gap in direct democracy outcomes across a wide range of topics using postelection survey data covering more than 300 Swiss referenda and four decades. We find that older voters are more likely to resist reform projects, particularly those that are associated with the political left. We separate age and cohort effects without imposing functional form constraints using a panel rank regression approach. The aging effect on political orientation is robust for controlling for arbitrary cohort effects and appears to be driven by expected utility maximization and not by habituation-induced status-quo bias. Our results suggest that population aging raises the hurdle for investment-like reform projects with positive net present values, long-run benefits and short-run costs in direct polls.
Hamburg Contemporary Economic Discussions No. 59, 2017
While urban renewal programs have become widely used policy measures to target urban development ... more While urban renewal programs have become widely used policy measures to target urban development less is known about the reasons why certain areas are more responsive to policy interventions than others. With this study we address some of these issues by analyzing an urban renewal program in Berlin, Germany, with 22 designated renewal zones between 1990 and 2012. We separately estimate the effects of the renewal policy on property prices for each respective redevelopment area by comparing price developments in these areas to a series of runner-up areas and to geographically close transactions. We find a considerable amount of heterogeneity. While some areas profit form the renewal policies, there are several areas which develop quite differently and end up with a decrease in property prices due to the urban renewal policy.
This paper develops a hedonic price model explaining standard land values in Berlin. The model as... more This paper develops a hedonic price model explaining standard land values in Berlin. The model assesses the impact of three multifunctional sports arenas situated in Berlin-Prenzlauer Berg which were de-signed to improve the attractiveness of their formerly deprived neighbourhoods. Empirical results confirm expectations about the impact of various attributes on land values. Sports arenas have significant positive impacts within a radius of about 3000 meters. The patterns of impact vary, indicating that the effective impact depends on how planning authorities address potential countervailing negative externalities.
Journal of Economics and Statistics, 2015
International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 2010
... this unequal impact pattern in a study that compared the development of land prices in the ..... more ... this unequal impact pattern in a study that compared the development of land prices in the ... rates in standard land values, d is a full set of time fixed effects, MS and ... 17 For dummy variables percentage impacts (PI) are calculated according to the well-established formula: PI = (exp ...
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This article provides empirical evidence for the (anticipated) net costs and benefits of a common... more This article provides empirical evidence for the (anticipated) net costs and benefits of a common monetary policy that varies across regions depending on the industry mix. The paper is the first to approach the issue of the regional and sectoral effects of a common monetary policy by using empirical spatial models to analyze referenda. Here, the referenda examined are the 2000 and 2003 referenda held in Denmark and Sweden regarding participation in the EMU. We find that voters in regions with a high proportion of interest-sensitive sectors and low international integration tend to oppose participation in a currency union. The opposite is true for non-interest-sensitive sectors with relatively high integration. These findings are in line with the hypothesis of rational voters maximizing utility. Furthermore, perceived net costs are found to increase with distance from the European core and with the age of voters, indicating that a national currency represents an experience good. These results are robust to spatial dependencies and are not driven by broader forms of Euro-skepticism.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This paper analyses the impact of heritage-listed buildings on condominium transaction prices in ... more This paper analyses the impact of heritage-listed buildings on condominium transaction prices in Berlin, Germany. We use transaction data to test for price differentials between listed and nonlisted properties and to study their impact on surrounding property prices. Proximity to built heritage is captured by distance to listed houses and indicators capturing neighborhoods with built heritage. Impact is assessed by applying a hedonic model to micro-level data and a non-parametric approach to location. While our findings suggest that listed properties do not sell at a premium or discount, heritage-listed buildings are found to have positive external effects on surrounding property prices.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This paper employs a hedonic price model to explain standard land values in Berlin. Impact on lan... more This paper employs a hedonic price model to explain standard land values in Berlin. Impact on land values is assessed for the two city airports situated in Berlin, Germany, Tempelhof and Tegel.
To assess the likely effects of population ageing on the outcomes of direct democracy, we analyze... more To assess the likely effects of population ageing on the outcomes of direct democracy, we analyze the effect of age on voting decisions in public referenda. To this end, we provide the first quantitative review of the literature and a case study of the Stuttgart 21 referendum on one of the largest infrastructure projects in Germany. The evidence suggests that intergenerational conflicts arising from population ageing will likely be limited to areas in which the net present value differs particularly strongly across generations, such as educa-tion and health spending, green energy, and major transport projects. In such instances, however, the effect can be quantitatively relevant, raising the question of whether, as population ageing progresses, decisions should be based on social cost-benefit analyses, instead of referenda.
Urban renewal areas are popular but empirically understudied spatial planning instruments designe... more Urban renewal areas are popular but empirically understudied spatial planning instruments designed to prevent urban decline and induce renewal. We use a quasi-experimental research design to study the effects of 22 renewal areas implemented in Berlin, Germany, to increase housing and living quality in the aftermath of the city's division during the Cold War period. Our results suggest that the policy has helped reduce (increase) the number of buildings in poor (good) condition by 25% (10%). Property prices increased at an annual rate of 0.4-1.7% according to our preferred estimates. Evidence is weak at best, however, for positive housing externalities. More generally, our findings indicate that the efficiency of program evaluations for place based -policies using quasi-experimental methods increases with the number of targeted areas and areas that provide the counterfactual.
Applied Economics Letters, 2017
Attitudes for a common currency differ from nation to nation, or from region to region. We analyz... more Attitudes for a common currency differ from nation to nation, or from region to region. We analyze regionally differing voting results of a referendum held in Sweden in lieu of joining the European Monetary Union. We put a special focus on the role of the industrial mix – being a potential factor influencing heterogeneous transmission – and find a significant, but subordinated, impact on voting behavior.
Journal of Economic Geography, 2017
We use a quasi-experimental research design to study the effects of a spatially targeted renewal ... more We use a quasi-experimental research design to study the effects of a spatially targeted renewal policy implemented in Berlin, Germany, in the aftermath of the city's division during the Cold War period. Our results suggest that over nearly 20 years the policy helped to reduce (increase) the propensity of buildings being in poor (good) condition within the targeted areas by on average 1.2-3.7% (0.8-2.6%) per year. The estimated effects on property prices range from 0.4-2% per year. In each case, the lower-bound estimate is not statistically significant. We find little evidence of positive housing externalities or positive welfare effects.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This paper investigates socioeconomic impacts of three multifunctional sports arenas situated in ... more This paper investigates socioeconomic impacts of three multifunctional sports arenas situated in Berlin-Prenzlauer Berg, Germany. The three arenas were chosen for their potential to contribute to revitalisation of their economically deprived neighbourhoods. We employ a difference-in-differences approach to check for structural breaks in development of land values within areas of potential impact.
This article analyzes the impact of designated landmarks on condominium transaction prices in Ber... more This article analyzes the impact of designated landmarks on condominium transaction prices in Berlin, Germany. We test for price differentials between listed and nonlisted properties and study their impact on surrounding property prices. The proximity to built heritage is captured by the distance to listed houses and heritage potentiality indicators. Impact is assessed by applying a hedonic model to microlevel data, and this process also addresses spatial dependency. While our findings suggest that designated landmarks do not sell at a premium or discount, landmarks are found to have positive external effects on surrounding property prices within a distance of approximately 600 m. 1 Listokin, Listokin and Lahr (1998) provide an excellent survey of the contributions of historic preservation to housing and economic development. 2 Although empirical studies yield mixed results, the existing body of literature as a whole suggests positive price effects (Asabere, Hachey and Grubaugh 1989, Schaeffer and
Urban Studies, 2009
This paper investigates impacts of three multifunctional sports arenas situated in Berlin-Prenzla... more This paper investigates impacts of three multifunctional sports arenas situated in Berlin-Prenzlauer Berg, Germany employing highly disaggregated data on land values. The three arenas, their architecture and location within the city structure were explicitly designed to contribute to revitalisation of their economically deprived neighbourhoods. We employ a difference-in-differences approach to check for structural breaks in development of land values within areas of potential impact. Our results suggest that arenas emanate positive externalities that improve location desirability in their neighbourhoods. However, evidence also supports concerns that negative external effects of arenas may adversely affect neighbourhoods, when not addressed appropriately during planning.
Journal of Urban Economics, 2019
We provide the first systematic documentation and analysis of a generation gap in direct democrac... more We provide the first systematic documentation and analysis of a generation gap in direct democracy outcomes across a wide range of topics using postelection survey data covering more than 300 Swiss referenda and four decades. We find that older voters are more likely to resist reform projects, particularly those that are associated with the political left. We separate age and cohort effects without imposing functional form constraints using a panel rank regression approach. The aging effect on political orientation is robust for controlling for arbitrary cohort effects and appears to be driven by expected utility maximization and not by habituation-induced status-quo bias. Our results suggest that population aging raises the hurdle for investment-like reform projects with positive net present values, long-run benefits and short-run costs in direct polls.
Hamburg Contemporary Economic Discussions No. 59, 2017
While urban renewal programs have become widely used policy measures to target urban development ... more While urban renewal programs have become widely used policy measures to target urban development less is known about the reasons why certain areas are more responsive to policy interventions than others. With this study we address some of these issues by analyzing an urban renewal program in Berlin, Germany, with 22 designated renewal zones between 1990 and 2012. We separately estimate the effects of the renewal policy on property prices for each respective redevelopment area by comparing price developments in these areas to a series of runner-up areas and to geographically close transactions. We find a considerable amount of heterogeneity. While some areas profit form the renewal policies, there are several areas which develop quite differently and end up with a decrease in property prices due to the urban renewal policy.
This paper develops a hedonic price model explaining standard land values in Berlin. The model as... more This paper develops a hedonic price model explaining standard land values in Berlin. The model assesses the impact of three multifunctional sports arenas situated in Berlin-Prenzlauer Berg which were de-signed to improve the attractiveness of their formerly deprived neighbourhoods. Empirical results confirm expectations about the impact of various attributes on land values. Sports arenas have significant positive impacts within a radius of about 3000 meters. The patterns of impact vary, indicating that the effective impact depends on how planning authorities address potential countervailing negative externalities.
Journal of Economics and Statistics, 2015
International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 2010
... this unequal impact pattern in a study that compared the development of land prices in the ..... more ... this unequal impact pattern in a study that compared the development of land prices in the ... rates in standard land values, d is a full set of time fixed effects, MS and ... 17 For dummy variables percentage impacts (PI) are calculated according to the well-established formula: PI = (exp ...
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This article provides empirical evidence for the (anticipated) net costs and benefits of a common... more This article provides empirical evidence for the (anticipated) net costs and benefits of a common monetary policy that varies across regions depending on the industry mix. The paper is the first to approach the issue of the regional and sectoral effects of a common monetary policy by using empirical spatial models to analyze referenda. Here, the referenda examined are the 2000 and 2003 referenda held in Denmark and Sweden regarding participation in the EMU. We find that voters in regions with a high proportion of interest-sensitive sectors and low international integration tend to oppose participation in a currency union. The opposite is true for non-interest-sensitive sectors with relatively high integration. These findings are in line with the hypothesis of rational voters maximizing utility. Furthermore, perceived net costs are found to increase with distance from the European core and with the age of voters, indicating that a national currency represents an experience good. These results are robust to spatial dependencies and are not driven by broader forms of Euro-skepticism.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This paper analyses the impact of heritage-listed buildings on condominium transaction prices in ... more This paper analyses the impact of heritage-listed buildings on condominium transaction prices in Berlin, Germany. We use transaction data to test for price differentials between listed and nonlisted properties and to study their impact on surrounding property prices. Proximity to built heritage is captured by distance to listed houses and indicators capturing neighborhoods with built heritage. Impact is assessed by applying a hedonic model to micro-level data and a non-parametric approach to location. While our findings suggest that listed properties do not sell at a premium or discount, heritage-listed buildings are found to have positive external effects on surrounding property prices.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This paper employs a hedonic price model to explain standard land values in Berlin. Impact on lan... more This paper employs a hedonic price model to explain standard land values in Berlin. Impact on land values is assessed for the two city airports situated in Berlin, Germany, Tempelhof and Tegel.
To assess the likely effects of population ageing on the outcomes of direct democracy, we analyze... more To assess the likely effects of population ageing on the outcomes of direct democracy, we analyze the effect of age on voting decisions in public referenda. To this end, we provide the first quantitative review of the literature and a case study of the Stuttgart 21 referendum on one of the largest infrastructure projects in Germany. The evidence suggests that intergenerational conflicts arising from population ageing will likely be limited to areas in which the net present value differs particularly strongly across generations, such as educa-tion and health spending, green energy, and major transport projects. In such instances, however, the effect can be quantitatively relevant, raising the question of whether, as population ageing progresses, decisions should be based on social cost-benefit analyses, instead of referenda.
Urban renewal areas are popular but empirically understudied spatial planning instruments designe... more Urban renewal areas are popular but empirically understudied spatial planning instruments designed to prevent urban decline and induce renewal. We use a quasi-experimental research design to study the effects of 22 renewal areas implemented in Berlin, Germany, to increase housing and living quality in the aftermath of the city's division during the Cold War period. Our results suggest that the policy has helped reduce (increase) the number of buildings in poor (good) condition by 25% (10%). Property prices increased at an annual rate of 0.4-1.7% according to our preferred estimates. Evidence is weak at best, however, for positive housing externalities. More generally, our findings indicate that the efficiency of program evaluations for place based -policies using quasi-experimental methods increases with the number of targeted areas and areas that provide the counterfactual.
Applied Economics Letters, 2017
Attitudes for a common currency differ from nation to nation, or from region to region. We analyz... more Attitudes for a common currency differ from nation to nation, or from region to region. We analyze regionally differing voting results of a referendum held in Sweden in lieu of joining the European Monetary Union. We put a special focus on the role of the industrial mix – being a potential factor influencing heterogeneous transmission – and find a significant, but subordinated, impact on voting behavior.
Journal of Economic Geography, 2017
We use a quasi-experimental research design to study the effects of a spatially targeted renewal ... more We use a quasi-experimental research design to study the effects of a spatially targeted renewal policy implemented in Berlin, Germany, in the aftermath of the city's division during the Cold War period. Our results suggest that over nearly 20 years the policy helped to reduce (increase) the propensity of buildings being in poor (good) condition within the targeted areas by on average 1.2-3.7% (0.8-2.6%) per year. The estimated effects on property prices range from 0.4-2% per year. In each case, the lower-bound estimate is not statistically significant. We find little evidence of positive housing externalities or positive welfare effects.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This paper investigates socioeconomic impacts of three multifunctional sports arenas situated in ... more This paper investigates socioeconomic impacts of three multifunctional sports arenas situated in Berlin-Prenzlauer Berg, Germany. The three arenas were chosen for their potential to contribute to revitalisation of their economically deprived neighbourhoods. We employ a difference-in-differences approach to check for structural breaks in development of land values within areas of potential impact.
This article analyzes the impact of designated landmarks on condominium transaction prices in Ber... more This article analyzes the impact of designated landmarks on condominium transaction prices in Berlin, Germany. We test for price differentials between listed and nonlisted properties and study their impact on surrounding property prices. The proximity to built heritage is captured by the distance to listed houses and heritage potentiality indicators. Impact is assessed by applying a hedonic model to microlevel data, and this process also addresses spatial dependency. While our findings suggest that designated landmarks do not sell at a premium or discount, landmarks are found to have positive external effects on surrounding property prices within a distance of approximately 600 m. 1 Listokin, Listokin and Lahr (1998) provide an excellent survey of the contributions of historic preservation to housing and economic development. 2 Although empirical studies yield mixed results, the existing body of literature as a whole suggests positive price effects (Asabere, Hachey and Grubaugh 1989, Schaeffer and
Urban Studies, 2009
This paper investigates impacts of three multifunctional sports arenas situated in Berlin-Prenzla... more This paper investigates impacts of three multifunctional sports arenas situated in Berlin-Prenzlauer Berg, Germany employing highly disaggregated data on land values. The three arenas, their architecture and location within the city structure were explicitly designed to contribute to revitalisation of their economically deprived neighbourhoods. We employ a difference-in-differences approach to check for structural breaks in development of land values within areas of potential impact. Our results suggest that arenas emanate positive externalities that improve location desirability in their neighbourhoods. However, evidence also supports concerns that negative external effects of arenas may adversely affect neighbourhoods, when not addressed appropriately during planning.
This paper synthesises the state of knowledge on the economic effects of density. We consider 15 ... more This paper synthesises the state of knowledge on the economic effects of density. We consider 15 outcome categories and 202 estimates of density elasticities from 102 studies. More than 50% of these estimates have not been previously published and have been provided by authors on request or inferred from published results in auxiliary analyses. We contribute own estimates of density elasticities of 16 distinct outcome variables that belong to categories where the evidence base is thin, inconsistent or non-existent. Along with a critical discussion of the quality and the quantity of the evidence base we present a set of recommended elasticities. Applying them to a scenario that roughly corresponds to an average high-income city, we find that a 10% increase in density in per capita and year terms is associated with a 140increaseinwageanda140 increase in wage and a 140increaseinwageanda243 increase in rent. The decrease in real wage net of taxes of 171ispartiallycompensatedforbyanaggregateamenityeffectof171 is partially compensated for by an aggregate amenity effect of 171ispartiallycompensatedforbyanaggregateamenityeffectof106 and there is a positive external welfare effect of $29. Density has important positive amenity and resource implications, but also appears to create a scarcity rent, which harms renters and first-time buyers.