George Burt - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by George Burt
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Nov 1, 2017
In this paper we examine the impact of participant readiness to engage with, perform and benefit ... more In this paper we examine the impact of participant readiness to engage with, perform and benefit from scenario planning processes. Central to our examination is the concept of 'openness disposition', which in the context of scenario planning refers to the tendency to seek either to hold open ambiguity, complexity and uncertainty, or look for closure, simplification and surety when engaging in strategic conversations. Readiness indicates the capacity of individuals and collectives to work with competing narratives, dilemmas, tensions and differences of opinion, as may occur in scenario work. A focus on readiness through openness disposition enables critical evaluation of the utility of scenario planning to different individuals and groups based on their capacity to engage with equivocality during structured, exploratory strategic conversations. Based on findings emerging from a longitudinal field study with ProRail N.V. Holland, we empirically identify three characteristics of participant readiness, which are theorised to extend understanding of how individuals and groups might engage in, cope and benefit from, scenario planning processes.
... An example of 'events that are in the pipeline and will emerge in time&#... more ... An example of 'events that are in the pipeline and will emerge in time'would be the number of children born in a ... I now put some 'flesh on the bones' of how predetermined elements connect with Emery and Trist's (1965) ideas on turbulence by developing Wack's second ...
The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to mak... more The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to make decisions today by studying the possibilities of tomorrow. When that tomorrow was more predictable and less fraught with uncertainty, those possibilities had a good chance of being the right ones. Now, however, the only given constant in a world of complexity is change itself. In an environment where information technology is driving an information revolution, and where the rules can be rewritten with breathtaking speed, planning can seem more based on luck than foresight. There are methods for coping with unpredictability. The Scenario planning techniques described in this book will help to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Based on Gill Ringland's previous book Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future, this updated and expanded version focuses specifically on scenarios planning in business. Scenario Planning in Business and its companion, Scenarios in Public Policy are both practical paperback books that each expand on specific areas of Scenario Planning. They will appeal to managers looking to learn about and apply a particular aspect of scenario planning.
Foresight, 2003
Publikationsansicht. 44624729. The sixth sense: accelerating organizational learning with scenari... more Publikationsansicht. 44624729. The sixth sense: accelerating organizational learning with scenarios (2002). Van Der Heijden, K.,; Bradfield, RM,; Burt, George,; Cairns, George,; Wright, George. Abstract. This book helps managers ...
Despite a recent profusion of methodologies within organizational research, much of what have bee... more Despite a recent profusion of methodologies within organizational research, much of what have been formulated remains within the remit of what we call here a ‘substantialist ontology’. This includes methodologies formulated within a ‘weak’ process theory which we assert remains wedded to a substantialist ontology. Methodologies anchored in a ‘strong’ process ontology, however, remain nascent. In this paper, we argue that the operationalization of process ontology requires the development of research methodologies that are inherently sympathetic to process and movement as fundamental features of reality. This, in turn, implies the need for greater conceptual integration and translation to the practical activity of fieldwork in process research. We address this lacuna by fleshing out a methodological approach that applies insights from the recent conceptual developments in the ‘practice turn’ to researching organizational practices in within the remit of a ‘strong’ process ontology. W...
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2021
Abstract Land use, woodland and forestry policy continues to evolve in response to unfolding econ... more Abstract Land use, woodland and forestry policy continues to evolve in response to unfolding economic, social and environmental challenges and opportunities. Concerns about integration across the stakeholder landscape impacting delivery and implementation of policy are common. Competing public and private sector stakeholder goals, narratives and actions are problematic. Developing insights from a recent case study, we uncover fragmentation in narratives, tensions in priorities, and misunderstandings at multiple levels between stakeholders. We identify the corrective influence of ‘dissociative jolts’ to trigger stakeholder's self-realisation of the extent of their unintentionally diverse interpretations of policy. These ‘dissociative jolts’ moments triggered open discussion, debate and reflexive questioning by the participants, enabling them to constructively contest their differences. In doing so, the participants were able to challenge and deconstruct their assumptions, reconstruct and develop new, shared understanding without trauma or denial. The structured mechanisms and formalisms of the intuitive-logics scenario planning approach provided a psychologically safe space with openness and equality of input to surface, explore, question and defragment stakeholder assumptions and narratives. The outcome of this defragmentation process was the collective recognition of failure, if the situation did not change, the dissolution of observed tensions conflicts and dilemmas, and the negotiated agreement for future action by the diverse stakeholder group.
Successful strategy is about being different. Successful strategy emerges from the creation of ne... more Successful strategy is about being different. Successful strategy emerges from the creation of new knowledge and insights before others. Interventions have long been accepted as an approach to support strategising in organisations. Successful interventions are therefore measured by the new knowledge and insights that they create. Such new knowledge and insights should in turn help in the navigation of the organisation as part of management's ongoing development of (successful) strategy. For many managers may not be aware of the unfolding situation within which their organisation operates in, until the unfolding situation springs a surprise or jolt. Successful interventions should therefore create new knowledge and insights that enable management to avoid such surprises or jolts. This paper presents a longitudinal case study that proposes the integration of system modelling within the scenario planning approach as a platform for strategising. Scenarios are stories of plausible fu...
Management Learning, 2014
Analogous to long-sightedness, hyperopia describes the condition of being able to grasp with acui... more Analogous to long-sightedness, hyperopia describes the condition of being able to grasp with acuity matters which are far removed from current experience (temporally, spatially or cognitively) while encountering difficulty in interpreting and acting on that which is close at hand. We examine data from a top management team’s activity in which they collectively display a hyperopic approach. A single in-depth field study is analysed retroductively to examine the plausibility of potential causal mechanisms that might explain the emergence of hyperopia. In the case examined, hyperopia appears to emerge from a strategic learning approach that emphasises foresightful learning mechanisms while neglecting experiential learning from direct exposure to operations. To avoid the emergence of pathologies of managerial approaches, such as hyperopia or myopia, practitioners are encouraged to engage with balanced strategic learning mechanisms of varying temporal, spatial and cognitive scope.
Handbook of Research on Strategy and Foresight, 2009
Offer and innovative and multi-disciplinary perspective on the past, present and future of manage... more Offer and innovative and multi-disciplinary perspective on the past, present and future of management strategy formulation and foresight. This chapter looks at strategy innovation for the future in the organisataion-environment relationship.
The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock... more The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock-on effects exemplified by the implosion of financial markets and economies around the globe. This book is for business and organizational leaders who want and need to think through how best to deal with increasing turbulence, and with the complexity and uncertainty that come with it. The authors explain in clear language how future orientation and, specifically, modern scenario techniques help to address these conditions. They draw on examples from a wide variety of international settings and circumstances including large corporations, inter-governmental organizations, small firms and municipalities. Readers will be inspired to try out scenario approaches themselves to better address the turbulence that affects them and others with whom they work, live and do business.
Hyperopia – or long-sightedness – describes a capacity to focus with acuity on that which is far ... more Hyperopia – or long-sightedness – describes a capacity to focus with acuity on that which is far off whilst experiencing deficiencies in interpreting and acting on that which is close at hand. We surface insights into the under-researched topic of hyperopic top management team (TMT) strategic practice and seek to better understand influences on and between hyperopia and TMT scenario planning approaches. We present empirical findings from a contemporary case where scenario planning practices are used extensively by the TMT. We also critically review an analogous historical case of hyperopic TMT strategic practice in a comparable sectoral context. Our findings suggest that the business impacts of hyperopia might be masked by munificent institutional conditions but as these conditions evolve, damaging effects of hyperopic strategic practice might be experienced. We also argue that further research is required to elaborate the relationship between TMT hyperopia and an over-reliance on scenario planning practices.
Hyperopia describes the condition of being able to focus with acuity on that which is far off (te... more Hyperopia describes the condition of being able to focus with acuity on that which is far off (temporally, spatially or cognitively) whilst experiencing difficulty in interpreting and acting on that which is close at hand. In this paper, managerial hyperopia is empirically explored as an unintended consequence of a top management team’s shared preference for strategic foresight generating practices. Data from a single in-depth case study, analysed through a realist social theoretical lens, is used to explore underlying factors and potential implications of managerial hyperopia. Our findings suggest that managerial hyperopia emerges from top management team practices privileging strategic foresight over strategic insight. These practices encapsulate a relatively frequent exposure to external institutional actors and infrequent interaction with internal organizational actors. Whilst strategic foresight techniques are intended to generate learning towards achieving long term organizational growth and survival, short term consequences of managerial hyperopia appear to harm the performance and sustainability of the organization. To avoid the emergence of managerial hyperopia, practitioners engaging in strategic foresight techniques are urged to undertake complementary strategic insight generating techniques focussed on the here and now. Further replication studies are suggested to establish the generalizability of the implications developed.
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Nov 1, 2017
In this paper we examine the impact of participant readiness to engage with, perform and benefit ... more In this paper we examine the impact of participant readiness to engage with, perform and benefit from scenario planning processes. Central to our examination is the concept of 'openness disposition', which in the context of scenario planning refers to the tendency to seek either to hold open ambiguity, complexity and uncertainty, or look for closure, simplification and surety when engaging in strategic conversations. Readiness indicates the capacity of individuals and collectives to work with competing narratives, dilemmas, tensions and differences of opinion, as may occur in scenario work. A focus on readiness through openness disposition enables critical evaluation of the utility of scenario planning to different individuals and groups based on their capacity to engage with equivocality during structured, exploratory strategic conversations. Based on findings emerging from a longitudinal field study with ProRail N.V. Holland, we empirically identify three characteristics of participant readiness, which are theorised to extend understanding of how individuals and groups might engage in, cope and benefit from, scenario planning processes.
... An example of 'events that are in the pipeline and will emerge in time&#... more ... An example of 'events that are in the pipeline and will emerge in time'would be the number of children born in a ... I now put some 'flesh on the bones' of how predetermined elements connect with Emery and Trist's (1965) ideas on turbulence by developing Wack's second ...
The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to mak... more The history of scenario planning is rich and varied. Throughout the ages people have tried to make decisions today by studying the possibilities of tomorrow. When that tomorrow was more predictable and less fraught with uncertainty, those possibilities had a good chance of being the right ones. Now, however, the only given constant in a world of complexity is change itself. In an environment where information technology is driving an information revolution, and where the rules can be rewritten with breathtaking speed, planning can seem more based on luck than foresight. There are methods for coping with unpredictability. The Scenario planning techniques described in this book will help to think about uncertainty in a structured way. Based on Gill Ringland's previous book Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future, this updated and expanded version focuses specifically on scenarios planning in business. Scenario Planning in Business and its companion, Scenarios in Public Policy are both practical paperback books that each expand on specific areas of Scenario Planning. They will appeal to managers looking to learn about and apply a particular aspect of scenario planning.
Foresight, 2003
Publikationsansicht. 44624729. The sixth sense: accelerating organizational learning with scenari... more Publikationsansicht. 44624729. The sixth sense: accelerating organizational learning with scenarios (2002). Van Der Heijden, K.,; Bradfield, RM,; Burt, George,; Cairns, George,; Wright, George. Abstract. This book helps managers ...
Despite a recent profusion of methodologies within organizational research, much of what have bee... more Despite a recent profusion of methodologies within organizational research, much of what have been formulated remains within the remit of what we call here a ‘substantialist ontology’. This includes methodologies formulated within a ‘weak’ process theory which we assert remains wedded to a substantialist ontology. Methodologies anchored in a ‘strong’ process ontology, however, remain nascent. In this paper, we argue that the operationalization of process ontology requires the development of research methodologies that are inherently sympathetic to process and movement as fundamental features of reality. This, in turn, implies the need for greater conceptual integration and translation to the practical activity of fieldwork in process research. We address this lacuna by fleshing out a methodological approach that applies insights from the recent conceptual developments in the ‘practice turn’ to researching organizational practices in within the remit of a ‘strong’ process ontology. W...
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2021
Abstract Land use, woodland and forestry policy continues to evolve in response to unfolding econ... more Abstract Land use, woodland and forestry policy continues to evolve in response to unfolding economic, social and environmental challenges and opportunities. Concerns about integration across the stakeholder landscape impacting delivery and implementation of policy are common. Competing public and private sector stakeholder goals, narratives and actions are problematic. Developing insights from a recent case study, we uncover fragmentation in narratives, tensions in priorities, and misunderstandings at multiple levels between stakeholders. We identify the corrective influence of ‘dissociative jolts’ to trigger stakeholder's self-realisation of the extent of their unintentionally diverse interpretations of policy. These ‘dissociative jolts’ moments triggered open discussion, debate and reflexive questioning by the participants, enabling them to constructively contest their differences. In doing so, the participants were able to challenge and deconstruct their assumptions, reconstruct and develop new, shared understanding without trauma or denial. The structured mechanisms and formalisms of the intuitive-logics scenario planning approach provided a psychologically safe space with openness and equality of input to surface, explore, question and defragment stakeholder assumptions and narratives. The outcome of this defragmentation process was the collective recognition of failure, if the situation did not change, the dissolution of observed tensions conflicts and dilemmas, and the negotiated agreement for future action by the diverse stakeholder group.
Successful strategy is about being different. Successful strategy emerges from the creation of ne... more Successful strategy is about being different. Successful strategy emerges from the creation of new knowledge and insights before others. Interventions have long been accepted as an approach to support strategising in organisations. Successful interventions are therefore measured by the new knowledge and insights that they create. Such new knowledge and insights should in turn help in the navigation of the organisation as part of management's ongoing development of (successful) strategy. For many managers may not be aware of the unfolding situation within which their organisation operates in, until the unfolding situation springs a surprise or jolt. Successful interventions should therefore create new knowledge and insights that enable management to avoid such surprises or jolts. This paper presents a longitudinal case study that proposes the integration of system modelling within the scenario planning approach as a platform for strategising. Scenarios are stories of plausible fu...
Management Learning, 2014
Analogous to long-sightedness, hyperopia describes the condition of being able to grasp with acui... more Analogous to long-sightedness, hyperopia describes the condition of being able to grasp with acuity matters which are far removed from current experience (temporally, spatially or cognitively) while encountering difficulty in interpreting and acting on that which is close at hand. We examine data from a top management team’s activity in which they collectively display a hyperopic approach. A single in-depth field study is analysed retroductively to examine the plausibility of potential causal mechanisms that might explain the emergence of hyperopia. In the case examined, hyperopia appears to emerge from a strategic learning approach that emphasises foresightful learning mechanisms while neglecting experiential learning from direct exposure to operations. To avoid the emergence of pathologies of managerial approaches, such as hyperopia or myopia, practitioners are encouraged to engage with balanced strategic learning mechanisms of varying temporal, spatial and cognitive scope.
Handbook of Research on Strategy and Foresight, 2009
Offer and innovative and multi-disciplinary perspective on the past, present and future of manage... more Offer and innovative and multi-disciplinary perspective on the past, present and future of management strategy formulation and foresight. This chapter looks at strategy innovation for the future in the organisataion-environment relationship.
The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock... more The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock-on effects exemplified by the implosion of financial markets and economies around the globe. This book is for business and organizational leaders who want and need to think through how best to deal with increasing turbulence, and with the complexity and uncertainty that come with it. The authors explain in clear language how future orientation and, specifically, modern scenario techniques help to address these conditions. They draw on examples from a wide variety of international settings and circumstances including large corporations, inter-governmental organizations, small firms and municipalities. Readers will be inspired to try out scenario approaches themselves to better address the turbulence that affects them and others with whom they work, live and do business.
Hyperopia – or long-sightedness – describes a capacity to focus with acuity on that which is far ... more Hyperopia – or long-sightedness – describes a capacity to focus with acuity on that which is far off whilst experiencing deficiencies in interpreting and acting on that which is close at hand. We surface insights into the under-researched topic of hyperopic top management team (TMT) strategic practice and seek to better understand influences on and between hyperopia and TMT scenario planning approaches. We present empirical findings from a contemporary case where scenario planning practices are used extensively by the TMT. We also critically review an analogous historical case of hyperopic TMT strategic practice in a comparable sectoral context. Our findings suggest that the business impacts of hyperopia might be masked by munificent institutional conditions but as these conditions evolve, damaging effects of hyperopic strategic practice might be experienced. We also argue that further research is required to elaborate the relationship between TMT hyperopia and an over-reliance on scenario planning practices.
Hyperopia describes the condition of being able to focus with acuity on that which is far off (te... more Hyperopia describes the condition of being able to focus with acuity on that which is far off (temporally, spatially or cognitively) whilst experiencing difficulty in interpreting and acting on that which is close at hand. In this paper, managerial hyperopia is empirically explored as an unintended consequence of a top management team’s shared preference for strategic foresight generating practices. Data from a single in-depth case study, analysed through a realist social theoretical lens, is used to explore underlying factors and potential implications of managerial hyperopia. Our findings suggest that managerial hyperopia emerges from top management team practices privileging strategic foresight over strategic insight. These practices encapsulate a relatively frequent exposure to external institutional actors and infrequent interaction with internal organizational actors. Whilst strategic foresight techniques are intended to generate learning towards achieving long term organizational growth and survival, short term consequences of managerial hyperopia appear to harm the performance and sustainability of the organization. To avoid the emergence of managerial hyperopia, practitioners engaging in strategic foresight techniques are urged to undertake complementary strategic insight generating techniques focussed on the here and now. Further replication studies are suggested to establish the generalizability of the implications developed.