Geraldine Ryan - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Geraldine Ryan

Research paper thumbnail of Determinants of equity financing: a demand-side analysis of Irish indigenous technology-based firms

The Irish Journal of Management

Successful high-technology industries enhance productivity, competition, and consumer choice. To ... more Successful high-technology industries enhance productivity, competition, and consumer choice. To support their innovating activities, these firms need access to finance. Given the uncertain nature of innovation, along with the high associated cost, many firms turn to equity financing. Using novel survey data for 153 indigenous equity and 141 indigenous non-equity financed high-tech firms, we examine what determines how these firms raise equity finance (i.e., independent and corporate venture capital, business angel, government-sponsored) and non-equity finance (i.e., personal investment, family and friend investment, debt finance). We find that debt finance is negatively associated with equity financing in high-tech firms. Moreover, in our sample of high-tech firms, we find that innovating firms, export-oriented firms operating in niche markets, and firms with high levels of human capital have a greater probability of being equity financed.

Research paper thumbnail of A micro-analysis of Irish firm deaths during the financial crisis (2006–2010)

The Irish Journal of Management, 2020

This paper examines differences in the hazard rates of young, established and mature firms during... more This paper examines differences in the hazard rates of young, established and mature firms during the financial crisis, using microdata from more than 300,000 Irish firms. The findings confirm that firm size at the time of the crisis had the largest impact on the probability of exit. The liability of smallness was pronounced in mature cohorts. Industry conditions had a considerable effect on the hazard rate of young cohorts, as opposed to mature counterparts. Interestingly, agglomeration raised the hazard rates of younger cohorts only. By contrast, attributes of the labour force of the region largely influenced the hazard rates of more established firms. Firms founded before the crisis were significantly less likely to exit in the aftermath of the crisis, in comparison with firms founded just before or during the crisis, whereas more mature firms seem to be more sensitive to the economic cycle.

Research paper thumbnail of The effectiveness of R&D and external interaction for innovation: Insights from quantile regression

Economic Issues Journal Articles, 2016

This paper utilises censored quantile regression techniques to analyse the impact of various form... more This paper utilises censored quantile regression techniques to analyse the impact of various forms of innovation inputs on the innovation output of a sample of Irish firms, using data from the Irish Community Innovation Survey 2008-2010. While there is a substantial literature on the drivers of innovation, there is a new and growing research interest in the application of quantile regression in the context of innovation. The advantage of quantile regression is that it moves beyond the typical assumption of variation around a mean, and allows for insights into the changing effectiveness of innovation inputs across the full innovation distribution. However, most papers treat innovation output as a continuous variable, when in fact it is more accurate to treat this variable as censored. Therefore, this paper applies a censored quantile regression estimator to evaluate the impact of innovation inputs on innovation output and to assess whether the effectiveness of these inputs varies, de...

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of labour market disruptions and transport choice on the environment during COVID-19

Transport Policy, 2021

Since late 2019, COVID-19 has devastated the global economy, with indirect implications for the e... more Since late 2019, COVID-19 has devastated the global economy, with indirect implications for the environment. As governments' prioritized health and implemented measures such as the closure of non-essential businesses and social distancing, many workers have lost their jobs, been furloughed, or started working from home. Consequently, the world of work has drastically transformed and this period is likely to have major implications for mobility, transportation and the environment. This paper estimates the potential for people to engage in remote work and social distancing using O*NET data and Irish Census data and calculates the potential emission savings, by commuter type from a switch to remote working and occupational social distancing. The results show that while those who commute by car have a relatively high potential for remote work, they are less likely to be able to engage in social distancing in their workplace. While this may be negative for employment prospects in the short run, our analysis indicates that this pattern has the potential for positive environmental implications in the short and long run.

Research paper thumbnail of In-House or Outsourcing Skills: How Best to Manage for Innovation?

International Journal of Innovation Management, 2019

Innovation is essential for driving business survival, development, and growth. Today, managers w... more Innovation is essential for driving business survival, development, and growth. Today, managers within firms continuously search for new ways to gain competitive advantage. In many cases, this comes from the effective use of intangible assets such as workplace skills and abilities. Despite this, little is known about what types of skills are required for innovation, whether these vary by innovation-type, or whether it matters if these skills are outsourced. This paper addresses these issues using data collected on eight skill types as part of the 2008–2010 Irish Community Innovation Survey. We find that there is substantial heterogeneity in the effectiveness of skills at generating different kinds of innovation. In addition, for some types of innovation, it is best to develop the skills in-house (e.g., Engineering skills for product innovation) while for others it is best to outsource the skills (e.g., Multimedia skills for process and organisational innovation).

Research paper thumbnail of The role of stimulating employees’ creativity and idea generation in encouraging innovation behaviour in Irish firms

The Irish Journal of Management, 2017

This paper analyses the impact of stimulating staff creativity and idea generation on the likelih... more This paper analyses the impact of stimulating staff creativity and idea generation on the likelihood of innovation. Using data for over 3,000 firms, obtained from the Irish Community Innovation Survey 2008-2010, we examine the impact of six creativity generating stimuli on product, process, organisational and marketing innovation. Our results indicate that the stimuli impact the four forms of innovation in different ways. For instance, brainstorming and multidisciplinary teams are found to stimulate all forms of innovation, rotation of employees is found to stimulate organisational innovation, while financial and non-financial incentives are found to have no effect on any form of innovation. We also find that the co-introduction of two or more stimuli increases the likelihood of innovation more than implementing stimuli in isolation. These results have important implications for management decisions in that they suggest that firms should target their creative efforts towards specifi...

Research paper thumbnail of Does the Technological Sophistication of a Firm Influence an Owner-Mangers Choice of Exit Mode

Utilizing Progressive Information Communication Technologies

Research paper thumbnail of The Importance of the Diverse Drivers and Types of Environmental Innovation for Firm Performance

Business Strategy and the Environment, 2014

The importance of the diverse drivers and types of environmental innovation for firm performance.... more The importance of the diverse drivers and types of environmental innovation for firm performance. Business strategy and the environment, 25(2), pp.102-119.

Research paper thumbnail of Games of Strategy

Encyclopedia of Decision Making and Decision Support Technologies

We think strategically whenever there are interactions between our decisions and other people’s d... more We think strategically whenever there are interactions between our decisions and other people’s decisions. In order to decide what we should do, we must first reason through how the other individuals are going to act or react. What are their aims? What options are open to them? In the light of our answers to these questions, we can decide what is the best way for us to act. Most business situations are interactive in the sense that the outcome of each decision emerges from the synthesis of firm owners, managers, employees, suppliers, and customers. Good decisions require that each decision-maker anticipate the decisions of the others. Game theory offers a systematic way of analysing strategic decision-making in interactive situations. It is a technique used to analyse situations where for two or more individuals the outcome of an action by one of them depends not only on their own action but also on the actions taken by the others (Binmore, 1992; Carmichael, 2005; McMillan, 1992). I...

Research paper thumbnail of The Role of Information in Decision Making

Encyclopedia of Decision Making and Decision Support Technologies

The advent of the World Wide Web and other communication technologies has significantly changed h... more The advent of the World Wide Web and other communication technologies has significantly changed how we access information, the amount of information available to us, and the cost of collecting that information. Individuals and businesses alike collect and interpret information in their decision-making activities and use this information for personal or economic gain. Underlying this description is the assumption that the information we need exists, is freely available, and easy to interpret. Yet in many instances this may not be the case at all. In some situations, information may be hidden, costly to assimilate, or difficult to interpret to ones own circumstances. In addition, two individuals who look at the same information can reach different conclusions as to its value. One person may see it as just a collection of numbers, another sees a market opportunity. In the latter case, information is used in an entrepreneurial way to create a business opportunity. Advances in technology...

Research paper thumbnail of Eco-Innovation – does additional engagement lead to additional rewards?

International Journal of Social Economics, 2014

Purpose – Eco-innovation is any form of product, process or organisational innovation that contri... more Purpose – Eco-innovation is any form of product, process or organisational innovation that contributes towards sustainable development. Firms can eco-innovate in a variety of ways. The purpose of this paper is to identify nine different eco-innovation activities – including such items as reducing material use per unit of output, reducing energy use per unit of output, reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) “footprint” – and the authors ask whether these act as substitutes or complements to one another. Design/methodology/approach – Eco-innovation is any form of product, process or organisational innovation that contributes towards sustainable development. Firms can eco-innovate in a variety of ways. In this paper the authors identify nine different eco-innovation activities – including such items as reducing material use per unit of output, reducing energy use per unit of output, reducing CO2 “footprint” – and the authors ask whether these act as substitutes or complements to one another. Fi...

Research paper thumbnail of The Power of Incentives in Decision Making

Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications

The organisation of the workplace is evolving. In many industries, mass production by large, vert... more The organisation of the workplace is evolving. In many industries, mass production by large, vertically integrated, hierarchically organised firms is being replaced with more flexible forms of both internal organisation and industrial structure (Brynjolfsson & Mendelson, 1993). Work is increasingly accomplished through networks of smaller, more focused enterprises. Added value is generated by ever-changing coalitions, where each member of a coalition specialises in its area of core competence and controls it through the use of strategic partnerships. The information systems (IS) revolution has had an enormous influence on how organisations are managed. Electronic access, communication, and decision support influence several managerial processes and systems including the nature and scope of managerial roles, organisational structure, strategic planning systems, budgeting, performance measurement and review, incentive compensation systems, and knowledge management.

Research paper thumbnail of Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence

The Review of Economic Studies, 1991

Recent research based on variance ratios and multiperiod-return autocorrelations concludes that t... more Recent research based on variance ratios and multiperiod-return autocorrelations concludes that the stock market exhibits mean reversion in the sense that a return in excess of the average tends to be followed by partially offsetting returns in the opposite direction. Dividing history into pre-1926, 1926-46, and post-1946 subperiods, we find that the mean-reversion phenomenon is a feature of the 1926-46 period, but not of the post-1946 period which instead exhibits persistence of returns. Evidence for pre-1926 data is mixed. The statisticai significance of test statistics is assessed by estimating their distribution using stratified randomization. Autocorrelations of multiperiod returns imply a forecast of future returns, which is presented for postwar three-year returns using 1926-46, full sample, and sequentially updated coefficient estimates. The correlation between actual and forecasted returns is negative in each case. We conclude that evidence of mean reversion in U.S. stock returns is substantially weaker than reported in the recent literature. If mean-reversion continues to be a feature of the stock market, then the experience of the past forty years has been an aberration.

Research paper thumbnail of Regional Influences oBusiness Transfers within the British Isles

ERSA conference …, 2011

As a direct consequence of the ageing workforce, many entrepreneurs will exit their firm in the c... more As a direct consequence of the ageing workforce, many entrepreneurs will exit their firm in the coming years. We examine some of the factors that may impact the entrepreneurs ' succession choice (i.e. whether to transfer the firm to a family member, sell the firm, or shutdown the firm). Using a sample of British Isles entrepreneurs (N=641), we examine how factors such as the economic vibrancy of the region in which the firm is located, the age, size and type of firm and the age of the retiring entrepreneurs impact on his/her succession choice. The succession choice is particularly important for rural communiti es where succession failure results in the loss of valuable enterprises, jobs, knowledge, and expertise. Using a multinomial probit model we find evidence that entrepreneurs who run older, smaller firms and firms located in rural areas expect to shutdown their business and dispose of the assets on retirement.

Research paper thumbnail of Regulation and firm perception, eco‐innovation and firm performance

European Journal of Innovation Management, 2012

PurposeRecent reports argue that eco‐innovation is the key to realising growth. The purpose of th... more PurposeRecent reports argue that eco‐innovation is the key to realising growth. The purpose of this paper is to examine the factors which drive eco‐innovation and test if eco‐innovating firms perform better than non‐eco‐innovating firms. The paper provides insights into the role government regulation can play in directing and stimulating eco‐innovation.Design/methodology/approachThe approach utilised by this paper is empirical in nature. Using a sample of 2,181 firms, gathered as part of the Irish Community Survey 2006‐2008, the authors estimate a modified innovation production function in order to assess the impact of regulation, consumer expectations and voluntary agreements on the performance of eco‐innovation, subsequently a knowledge augmented production function is estimated to assess the impact of eco‐innovation on firm performance.FindingsThe findings suggest that regulation and customer perception can explain a firm's decision to engage in eco‐innovation. Eco‐innovation...

Research paper thumbnail of The predictive power of the present value model of stock prices

Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, 2006

Using monthly data from 1926:01 to 2003:12 for the United States, this paper examines the predict... more Using monthly data from 1926:01 to 2003:12 for the United States, this paper examines the predictability of real stock prices based on the dividend-price ratio. In particular, we focus on estimating and forecasting a nonlinear exponential smooth autoregressive model (ESTAR). One ...

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of Covid-19 restrictions on workers: Who is most exposed?

The coronavirus is severely disrupting labour markets. Businesses that rely on face-to-face commu... more The coronavirus is severely disrupting labour markets. Businesses that rely on face-to-face communication or close physical proximity between co-workers and with customers are particularly vulnerable. While interventions such as occupational social distancing and remote working have become widespread responses to the pandemic, we know very little about which workers will be affected the most by these interventions. Does our age, gender, marital status, educational attainment, occupation, or location affect our ability to practice occupational socially distancing, or our ability to work remotely? Social distancing and remote working potential indices are constructed, by occupation, using O*Net data, and this is matched to individual level data on over 150,000 individuals in employment from the Irish Census 2011. This allows us to identify, at the individual level, worker characteristics which can explain the degree to which a given individual working in a certain occupation may be ab...

Research paper thumbnail of Economic Issues in Media Regulation

User Generated Content Consumption

Changes in technology bring new challenges and opportunities for every industry, and the media in... more Changes in technology bring new challenges and opportunities for every industry, and the media industry is no different. Today people use mass media, and in particular the Internet, to participate in discussions and debate, to advertise and sell their products, to collect and store knowledge and to interact with the global community on the information super-highway. Given both the fast pace of innovation in the media industry and consumer demands for ever greater media content regulatory authorities are faced with challenging times. In this chapter, the authors examine how vertical mergers, vertical restraints, regulations, and competition policy are impacting on the European and American media industries. The authors examine how the internationalisation of the industry, increased merger activity, and the move towards cross media ownership are impacting on market concentration and diversity. The authors conclude that a balance must be struck between encouraging greater capital flows...

Research paper thumbnail of Firms’ skills as drivers of radical and incremental innovation

Economics Letters, 2014

Highlights  We use a novel dataset with information on the different skill sets possessed by fir... more Highlights  We use a novel dataset with information on the different skill sets possessed by firms.  We distinguish between the impact of skills on radical and incremental innovation.  We distinguish between internally and externally sourced skills.  We estimate two innovation production functions using a multivariate probit model.  One of the few papers to analyse the impact of different skill sets on innovation.

Research paper thumbnail of Determinants of equity financing: a demand-side analysis of Irish indigenous technology-based firms

The Irish Journal of Management

Successful high-technology industries enhance productivity, competition, and consumer choice. To ... more Successful high-technology industries enhance productivity, competition, and consumer choice. To support their innovating activities, these firms need access to finance. Given the uncertain nature of innovation, along with the high associated cost, many firms turn to equity financing. Using novel survey data for 153 indigenous equity and 141 indigenous non-equity financed high-tech firms, we examine what determines how these firms raise equity finance (i.e., independent and corporate venture capital, business angel, government-sponsored) and non-equity finance (i.e., personal investment, family and friend investment, debt finance). We find that debt finance is negatively associated with equity financing in high-tech firms. Moreover, in our sample of high-tech firms, we find that innovating firms, export-oriented firms operating in niche markets, and firms with high levels of human capital have a greater probability of being equity financed.

Research paper thumbnail of A micro-analysis of Irish firm deaths during the financial crisis (2006–2010)

The Irish Journal of Management, 2020

This paper examines differences in the hazard rates of young, established and mature firms during... more This paper examines differences in the hazard rates of young, established and mature firms during the financial crisis, using microdata from more than 300,000 Irish firms. The findings confirm that firm size at the time of the crisis had the largest impact on the probability of exit. The liability of smallness was pronounced in mature cohorts. Industry conditions had a considerable effect on the hazard rate of young cohorts, as opposed to mature counterparts. Interestingly, agglomeration raised the hazard rates of younger cohorts only. By contrast, attributes of the labour force of the region largely influenced the hazard rates of more established firms. Firms founded before the crisis were significantly less likely to exit in the aftermath of the crisis, in comparison with firms founded just before or during the crisis, whereas more mature firms seem to be more sensitive to the economic cycle.

Research paper thumbnail of The effectiveness of R&D and external interaction for innovation: Insights from quantile regression

Economic Issues Journal Articles, 2016

This paper utilises censored quantile regression techniques to analyse the impact of various form... more This paper utilises censored quantile regression techniques to analyse the impact of various forms of innovation inputs on the innovation output of a sample of Irish firms, using data from the Irish Community Innovation Survey 2008-2010. While there is a substantial literature on the drivers of innovation, there is a new and growing research interest in the application of quantile regression in the context of innovation. The advantage of quantile regression is that it moves beyond the typical assumption of variation around a mean, and allows for insights into the changing effectiveness of innovation inputs across the full innovation distribution. However, most papers treat innovation output as a continuous variable, when in fact it is more accurate to treat this variable as censored. Therefore, this paper applies a censored quantile regression estimator to evaluate the impact of innovation inputs on innovation output and to assess whether the effectiveness of these inputs varies, de...

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of labour market disruptions and transport choice on the environment during COVID-19

Transport Policy, 2021

Since late 2019, COVID-19 has devastated the global economy, with indirect implications for the e... more Since late 2019, COVID-19 has devastated the global economy, with indirect implications for the environment. As governments' prioritized health and implemented measures such as the closure of non-essential businesses and social distancing, many workers have lost their jobs, been furloughed, or started working from home. Consequently, the world of work has drastically transformed and this period is likely to have major implications for mobility, transportation and the environment. This paper estimates the potential for people to engage in remote work and social distancing using O*NET data and Irish Census data and calculates the potential emission savings, by commuter type from a switch to remote working and occupational social distancing. The results show that while those who commute by car have a relatively high potential for remote work, they are less likely to be able to engage in social distancing in their workplace. While this may be negative for employment prospects in the short run, our analysis indicates that this pattern has the potential for positive environmental implications in the short and long run.

Research paper thumbnail of In-House or Outsourcing Skills: How Best to Manage for Innovation?

International Journal of Innovation Management, 2019

Innovation is essential for driving business survival, development, and growth. Today, managers w... more Innovation is essential for driving business survival, development, and growth. Today, managers within firms continuously search for new ways to gain competitive advantage. In many cases, this comes from the effective use of intangible assets such as workplace skills and abilities. Despite this, little is known about what types of skills are required for innovation, whether these vary by innovation-type, or whether it matters if these skills are outsourced. This paper addresses these issues using data collected on eight skill types as part of the 2008–2010 Irish Community Innovation Survey. We find that there is substantial heterogeneity in the effectiveness of skills at generating different kinds of innovation. In addition, for some types of innovation, it is best to develop the skills in-house (e.g., Engineering skills for product innovation) while for others it is best to outsource the skills (e.g., Multimedia skills for process and organisational innovation).

Research paper thumbnail of The role of stimulating employees’ creativity and idea generation in encouraging innovation behaviour in Irish firms

The Irish Journal of Management, 2017

This paper analyses the impact of stimulating staff creativity and idea generation on the likelih... more This paper analyses the impact of stimulating staff creativity and idea generation on the likelihood of innovation. Using data for over 3,000 firms, obtained from the Irish Community Innovation Survey 2008-2010, we examine the impact of six creativity generating stimuli on product, process, organisational and marketing innovation. Our results indicate that the stimuli impact the four forms of innovation in different ways. For instance, brainstorming and multidisciplinary teams are found to stimulate all forms of innovation, rotation of employees is found to stimulate organisational innovation, while financial and non-financial incentives are found to have no effect on any form of innovation. We also find that the co-introduction of two or more stimuli increases the likelihood of innovation more than implementing stimuli in isolation. These results have important implications for management decisions in that they suggest that firms should target their creative efforts towards specifi...

Research paper thumbnail of Does the Technological Sophistication of a Firm Influence an Owner-Mangers Choice of Exit Mode

Utilizing Progressive Information Communication Technologies

Research paper thumbnail of The Importance of the Diverse Drivers and Types of Environmental Innovation for Firm Performance

Business Strategy and the Environment, 2014

The importance of the diverse drivers and types of environmental innovation for firm performance.... more The importance of the diverse drivers and types of environmental innovation for firm performance. Business strategy and the environment, 25(2), pp.102-119.

Research paper thumbnail of Games of Strategy

Encyclopedia of Decision Making and Decision Support Technologies

We think strategically whenever there are interactions between our decisions and other people’s d... more We think strategically whenever there are interactions between our decisions and other people’s decisions. In order to decide what we should do, we must first reason through how the other individuals are going to act or react. What are their aims? What options are open to them? In the light of our answers to these questions, we can decide what is the best way for us to act. Most business situations are interactive in the sense that the outcome of each decision emerges from the synthesis of firm owners, managers, employees, suppliers, and customers. Good decisions require that each decision-maker anticipate the decisions of the others. Game theory offers a systematic way of analysing strategic decision-making in interactive situations. It is a technique used to analyse situations where for two or more individuals the outcome of an action by one of them depends not only on their own action but also on the actions taken by the others (Binmore, 1992; Carmichael, 2005; McMillan, 1992). I...

Research paper thumbnail of The Role of Information in Decision Making

Encyclopedia of Decision Making and Decision Support Technologies

The advent of the World Wide Web and other communication technologies has significantly changed h... more The advent of the World Wide Web and other communication technologies has significantly changed how we access information, the amount of information available to us, and the cost of collecting that information. Individuals and businesses alike collect and interpret information in their decision-making activities and use this information for personal or economic gain. Underlying this description is the assumption that the information we need exists, is freely available, and easy to interpret. Yet in many instances this may not be the case at all. In some situations, information may be hidden, costly to assimilate, or difficult to interpret to ones own circumstances. In addition, two individuals who look at the same information can reach different conclusions as to its value. One person may see it as just a collection of numbers, another sees a market opportunity. In the latter case, information is used in an entrepreneurial way to create a business opportunity. Advances in technology...

Research paper thumbnail of Eco-Innovation – does additional engagement lead to additional rewards?

International Journal of Social Economics, 2014

Purpose – Eco-innovation is any form of product, process or organisational innovation that contri... more Purpose – Eco-innovation is any form of product, process or organisational innovation that contributes towards sustainable development. Firms can eco-innovate in a variety of ways. The purpose of this paper is to identify nine different eco-innovation activities – including such items as reducing material use per unit of output, reducing energy use per unit of output, reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) “footprint” – and the authors ask whether these act as substitutes or complements to one another. Design/methodology/approach – Eco-innovation is any form of product, process or organisational innovation that contributes towards sustainable development. Firms can eco-innovate in a variety of ways. In this paper the authors identify nine different eco-innovation activities – including such items as reducing material use per unit of output, reducing energy use per unit of output, reducing CO2 “footprint” – and the authors ask whether these act as substitutes or complements to one another. Fi...

Research paper thumbnail of The Power of Incentives in Decision Making

Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications

The organisation of the workplace is evolving. In many industries, mass production by large, vert... more The organisation of the workplace is evolving. In many industries, mass production by large, vertically integrated, hierarchically organised firms is being replaced with more flexible forms of both internal organisation and industrial structure (Brynjolfsson & Mendelson, 1993). Work is increasingly accomplished through networks of smaller, more focused enterprises. Added value is generated by ever-changing coalitions, where each member of a coalition specialises in its area of core competence and controls it through the use of strategic partnerships. The information systems (IS) revolution has had an enormous influence on how organisations are managed. Electronic access, communication, and decision support influence several managerial processes and systems including the nature and scope of managerial roles, organisational structure, strategic planning systems, budgeting, performance measurement and review, incentive compensation systems, and knowledge management.

Research paper thumbnail of Mean Reversion in Stock Prices? A Reappraisal of the Empirical Evidence

The Review of Economic Studies, 1991

Recent research based on variance ratios and multiperiod-return autocorrelations concludes that t... more Recent research based on variance ratios and multiperiod-return autocorrelations concludes that the stock market exhibits mean reversion in the sense that a return in excess of the average tends to be followed by partially offsetting returns in the opposite direction. Dividing history into pre-1926, 1926-46, and post-1946 subperiods, we find that the mean-reversion phenomenon is a feature of the 1926-46 period, but not of the post-1946 period which instead exhibits persistence of returns. Evidence for pre-1926 data is mixed. The statisticai significance of test statistics is assessed by estimating their distribution using stratified randomization. Autocorrelations of multiperiod returns imply a forecast of future returns, which is presented for postwar three-year returns using 1926-46, full sample, and sequentially updated coefficient estimates. The correlation between actual and forecasted returns is negative in each case. We conclude that evidence of mean reversion in U.S. stock returns is substantially weaker than reported in the recent literature. If mean-reversion continues to be a feature of the stock market, then the experience of the past forty years has been an aberration.

Research paper thumbnail of Regional Influences oBusiness Transfers within the British Isles

ERSA conference …, 2011

As a direct consequence of the ageing workforce, many entrepreneurs will exit their firm in the c... more As a direct consequence of the ageing workforce, many entrepreneurs will exit their firm in the coming years. We examine some of the factors that may impact the entrepreneurs ' succession choice (i.e. whether to transfer the firm to a family member, sell the firm, or shutdown the firm). Using a sample of British Isles entrepreneurs (N=641), we examine how factors such as the economic vibrancy of the region in which the firm is located, the age, size and type of firm and the age of the retiring entrepreneurs impact on his/her succession choice. The succession choice is particularly important for rural communiti es where succession failure results in the loss of valuable enterprises, jobs, knowledge, and expertise. Using a multinomial probit model we find evidence that entrepreneurs who run older, smaller firms and firms located in rural areas expect to shutdown their business and dispose of the assets on retirement.

Research paper thumbnail of Regulation and firm perception, eco‐innovation and firm performance

European Journal of Innovation Management, 2012

PurposeRecent reports argue that eco‐innovation is the key to realising growth. The purpose of th... more PurposeRecent reports argue that eco‐innovation is the key to realising growth. The purpose of this paper is to examine the factors which drive eco‐innovation and test if eco‐innovating firms perform better than non‐eco‐innovating firms. The paper provides insights into the role government regulation can play in directing and stimulating eco‐innovation.Design/methodology/approachThe approach utilised by this paper is empirical in nature. Using a sample of 2,181 firms, gathered as part of the Irish Community Survey 2006‐2008, the authors estimate a modified innovation production function in order to assess the impact of regulation, consumer expectations and voluntary agreements on the performance of eco‐innovation, subsequently a knowledge augmented production function is estimated to assess the impact of eco‐innovation on firm performance.FindingsThe findings suggest that regulation and customer perception can explain a firm's decision to engage in eco‐innovation. Eco‐innovation...

Research paper thumbnail of The predictive power of the present value model of stock prices

Computing in Economics and Finance 2006, 2006

Using monthly data from 1926:01 to 2003:12 for the United States, this paper examines the predict... more Using monthly data from 1926:01 to 2003:12 for the United States, this paper examines the predictability of real stock prices based on the dividend-price ratio. In particular, we focus on estimating and forecasting a nonlinear exponential smooth autoregressive model (ESTAR). One ...

Research paper thumbnail of The impact of Covid-19 restrictions on workers: Who is most exposed?

The coronavirus is severely disrupting labour markets. Businesses that rely on face-to-face commu... more The coronavirus is severely disrupting labour markets. Businesses that rely on face-to-face communication or close physical proximity between co-workers and with customers are particularly vulnerable. While interventions such as occupational social distancing and remote working have become widespread responses to the pandemic, we know very little about which workers will be affected the most by these interventions. Does our age, gender, marital status, educational attainment, occupation, or location affect our ability to practice occupational socially distancing, or our ability to work remotely? Social distancing and remote working potential indices are constructed, by occupation, using O*Net data, and this is matched to individual level data on over 150,000 individuals in employment from the Irish Census 2011. This allows us to identify, at the individual level, worker characteristics which can explain the degree to which a given individual working in a certain occupation may be ab...

Research paper thumbnail of Economic Issues in Media Regulation

User Generated Content Consumption

Changes in technology bring new challenges and opportunities for every industry, and the media in... more Changes in technology bring new challenges and opportunities for every industry, and the media industry is no different. Today people use mass media, and in particular the Internet, to participate in discussions and debate, to advertise and sell their products, to collect and store knowledge and to interact with the global community on the information super-highway. Given both the fast pace of innovation in the media industry and consumer demands for ever greater media content regulatory authorities are faced with challenging times. In this chapter, the authors examine how vertical mergers, vertical restraints, regulations, and competition policy are impacting on the European and American media industries. The authors examine how the internationalisation of the industry, increased merger activity, and the move towards cross media ownership are impacting on market concentration and diversity. The authors conclude that a balance must be struck between encouraging greater capital flows...

Research paper thumbnail of Firms’ skills as drivers of radical and incremental innovation

Economics Letters, 2014

Highlights  We use a novel dataset with information on the different skill sets possessed by fir... more Highlights  We use a novel dataset with information on the different skill sets possessed by firms.  We distinguish between the impact of skills on radical and incremental innovation.  We distinguish between internally and externally sourced skills.  We estimate two innovation production functions using a multivariate probit model.  One of the few papers to analyse the impact of different skill sets on innovation.