David Gillmore - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by David Gillmore

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Dec 1, 2012

Since the trough of the 2008/09 recession, the unemployment rate has remained high. However, some... more Since the trough of the 2008/09 recession, the unemployment rate has remained high. However, some other indicators suggest that there might be less downward pressure on wage and price inflation than the unemployment rate alone implies. We explore this apparent discrepancy by looking at the relationship between vacancies and the number of people unemployed (the Beveridge curve) and by estimating a measure of the effectiveness of the labour market at matching unemployed workers with vacancies. We suggest that both the Canterbury earthquakes and international migration flows may have contributed to an apparent decline in the matching efficiency in the labour market.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series, 2012

We compare the current recovery in the New Zealand economy with the recoveries from the previous ... more We compare the current recovery in the New Zealand economy with the recoveries from the previous two recessions, focusing on the developments in the labour market. By way of comparison, we contrast the New Zealand situation with that of the United States, during its current and previous two recessions.

Estimates of the "output gap" play a significant role in the thinking of inflation- tar... more Estimates of the "output gap" play a significant role in the thinking of inflation- targeting central banks. This note outlines how the Reserve Bank estimates the level of potential output and the output gap.facing small advanced economies, such as New Zealand.

We compare the current recovery in the New Zealand economy with the recoveries from the previous ... more We compare the current recovery in the New Zealand economy with the recoveries from the previous two recessions, focusing on the developments in the labour market. By way of comparison, we contrast the New Zealand situation with that of the United States, during its current and previous two recessions.

A key determinant of New Zealand’s growth is its trade with the rest of the world. We have develo... more A key determinant of New Zealand’s growth is its trade with the rest of the world. We have developed a world inputoutput table to investigate the way in which New Zealand and Australia depend on the rest of the world, and to look at the role of demand in China, Japan, the US, and the euro area. We show how higher demand in one economy affects production in another economy both directly, through its higher demand for final products, and indirectly, via its higher demand for intermediate products and its impact on production and demand in other economies. We highlight the impact of US demand on other economies and demonstrate the importance of Chinese and Australian demand on New Zealand.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, 2008

This article reviews what we know about the long-run impact of inflation on economic growth. Econ... more This article reviews what we know about the long-run impact of inflation on economic growth. Economic theory tells us that both high inflation and deflation adversely affect the economy. Inflation tends to benefit the wealthy at the expense of the poor and those on fixed incomes and it reduces economic growth over the long term. The experiences of New Zealand and other industrialised countries since World War II generally support this negative long-term relationship between inflation and growth. The experience of Japan illustrates the negative impact of deflation. There is general agreement that both high inflation and deflation impact negatively on the economy. Recent empirical studies have estimated the level of inflation at which its long-run impact on growth becomes materially negative. For industrialised countries, this level is about 3 percent, while for developing countries it is around 11 to 12 percent.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, 2012

Since the trough of the 2008/09 recession, the unemployment rate has remained high. However, some... more Since the trough of the 2008/09 recession, the unemployment rate has remained high. However, some other indicators suggest that there might be less downward pressure on wage and price inflation than the unemployment rate alone implies. We explore this apparent discrepancy by looking at the relationship between vacancies and the number of people unemployed (the Beveridge curve) and by estimating a measure of the effectiveness of the labour market at matching unemployed workers with vacancies. We suggest that both the Canterbury earthquakes and international migration flows may have contributed to an apparent decline in the matching efficiency in the labour market.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Oct 1, 2008

This paper compares a monetary policy that targets average inflation with one that targets the ch... more This paper compares a monetary policy that targets average inflation with one that targets the change in the output gap. It shows that the stabilizing properties of monetary policy strategies are sensitive to both the existence of lags in the transmission mechanism and the design of target rules. A strategy focusing on the change in the output gap is likely to prove inferior to targeting the average rate of inflation in a model where monetary policy affects the real economy sooner than inflation. Even more favourable results for average inflation targeting emerge in a framework that also includes forward-looking expectations. These results stand in marked contrast to those in standard models where policy lags are absent. To ensure sound choice of policy, central banks are advised to examine the stabilizing properties of monetary policies in a variety of models. Over the past two decades, monetary policy in Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries has been spectacularly

International Finance, 2010

This paper compares a monetary policy that targets average inflation with one that targets the ch... more This paper compares a monetary policy that targets average inflation with one that targets the change in the output gap. It shows that the stabilizing properties of monetary policy strategies are sensitive to both the existence of lags in the transmission mechanism and the design of target rules. A strategy focusing on the change in the output gap is likely to prove inferior to targeting the average rate of inflation in a model where monetary policy affects the real economy sooner than inflation. Even more favourable results for average inflation targeting emerge in a framework that also includes forward‐looking expectations. These results stand in marked contrast to those in standard models where policy lags are absent. To ensure sound choice of policy, central banks are advised to examine the stabilizing properties of monetary policies in a variety of models.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Dec 1, 2012

Since the trough of the 2008/09 recession, the unemployment rate has remained high. However, some... more Since the trough of the 2008/09 recession, the unemployment rate has remained high. However, some other indicators suggest that there might be less downward pressure on wage and price inflation than the unemployment rate alone implies. We explore this apparent discrepancy by looking at the relationship between vacancies and the number of people unemployed (the Beveridge curve) and by estimating a measure of the effectiveness of the labour market at matching unemployed workers with vacancies. We suggest that both the Canterbury earthquakes and international migration flows may have contributed to an apparent decline in the matching efficiency in the labour market.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Analytical Notes series, 2012

We compare the current recovery in the New Zealand economy with the recoveries from the previous ... more We compare the current recovery in the New Zealand economy with the recoveries from the previous two recessions, focusing on the developments in the labour market. By way of comparison, we contrast the New Zealand situation with that of the United States, during its current and previous two recessions.

Estimates of the "output gap" play a significant role in the thinking of inflation- tar... more Estimates of the "output gap" play a significant role in the thinking of inflation- targeting central banks. This note outlines how the Reserve Bank estimates the level of potential output and the output gap.facing small advanced economies, such as New Zealand.

We compare the current recovery in the New Zealand economy with the recoveries from the previous ... more We compare the current recovery in the New Zealand economy with the recoveries from the previous two recessions, focusing on the developments in the labour market. By way of comparison, we contrast the New Zealand situation with that of the United States, during its current and previous two recessions.

A key determinant of New Zealand’s growth is its trade with the rest of the world. We have develo... more A key determinant of New Zealand’s growth is its trade with the rest of the world. We have developed a world inputoutput table to investigate the way in which New Zealand and Australia depend on the rest of the world, and to look at the role of demand in China, Japan, the US, and the euro area. We show how higher demand in one economy affects production in another economy both directly, through its higher demand for final products, and indirectly, via its higher demand for intermediate products and its impact on production and demand in other economies. We highlight the impact of US demand on other economies and demonstrate the importance of Chinese and Australian demand on New Zealand.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, 2008

This article reviews what we know about the long-run impact of inflation on economic growth. Econ... more This article reviews what we know about the long-run impact of inflation on economic growth. Economic theory tells us that both high inflation and deflation adversely affect the economy. Inflation tends to benefit the wealthy at the expense of the poor and those on fixed incomes and it reduces economic growth over the long term. The experiences of New Zealand and other industrialised countries since World War II generally support this negative long-term relationship between inflation and growth. The experience of Japan illustrates the negative impact of deflation. There is general agreement that both high inflation and deflation impact negatively on the economy. Recent empirical studies have estimated the level of inflation at which its long-run impact on growth becomes materially negative. For industrialised countries, this level is about 3 percent, while for developing countries it is around 11 to 12 percent.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, 2012

Since the trough of the 2008/09 recession, the unemployment rate has remained high. However, some... more Since the trough of the 2008/09 recession, the unemployment rate has remained high. However, some other indicators suggest that there might be less downward pressure on wage and price inflation than the unemployment rate alone implies. We explore this apparent discrepancy by looking at the relationship between vacancies and the number of people unemployed (the Beveridge curve) and by estimating a measure of the effectiveness of the labour market at matching unemployed workers with vacancies. We suggest that both the Canterbury earthquakes and international migration flows may have contributed to an apparent decline in the matching efficiency in the labour market.

RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, Oct 1, 2008

This paper compares a monetary policy that targets average inflation with one that targets the ch... more This paper compares a monetary policy that targets average inflation with one that targets the change in the output gap. It shows that the stabilizing properties of monetary policy strategies are sensitive to both the existence of lags in the transmission mechanism and the design of target rules. A strategy focusing on the change in the output gap is likely to prove inferior to targeting the average rate of inflation in a model where monetary policy affects the real economy sooner than inflation. Even more favourable results for average inflation targeting emerge in a framework that also includes forward-looking expectations. These results stand in marked contrast to those in standard models where policy lags are absent. To ensure sound choice of policy, central banks are advised to examine the stabilizing properties of monetary policies in a variety of models. Over the past two decades, monetary policy in Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries has been spectacularly

International Finance, 2010

This paper compares a monetary policy that targets average inflation with one that targets the ch... more This paper compares a monetary policy that targets average inflation with one that targets the change in the output gap. It shows that the stabilizing properties of monetary policy strategies are sensitive to both the existence of lags in the transmission mechanism and the design of target rules. A strategy focusing on the change in the output gap is likely to prove inferior to targeting the average rate of inflation in a model where monetary policy affects the real economy sooner than inflation. Even more favourable results for average inflation targeting emerge in a framework that also includes forward‐looking expectations. These results stand in marked contrast to those in standard models where policy lags are absent. To ensure sound choice of policy, central banks are advised to examine the stabilizing properties of monetary policies in a variety of models.