Graham Lovell - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Graham Lovell

German translation of the Syriac text. I would to like acknowledge my appreciation of the directi... more German translation of the Syriac text. I would to like acknowledge my appreciation of the direction, assistance, encouragement and patience of Alanna Nobbs, Ken Parry, and Samuel Lieu, who have directed this study, other academic staff of Macquarie University Ancient History Department, in particular

The world is on a path to reach 1.5C by 2030 and somewhere between 1.6C and 2.0C by 2070. Action ... more The world is on a path to reach 1.5C by 2030 and somewhere between 1.6C and 2.0C by 2070. Action can be taken to hold temperatures within that range out into the future, but that will require action in individual discrete areas as solutions become apparent. One of those solutions, currently overlooked, is the full replacement of oil-based fuels for vehicles with ethanol. Almost all of the infrastructure for this change is already in place, in contrast with the alternatives of full-electric vehicles and hydrogen fuelled vehicles. Ethanol can be used in all vehicles and ships, immediately replacing oil-based fuels and thus providing an immediately available climate change fix for surface transport. Implemented across the board, this will cut current CO2 emissions by 20%. However, ethanol is currently more expensive to produce than oil-based fuels. This is likely to continue as oil is currently in an oversupply situation and all producers are expecting the demand for oil will reduce in the future much more quickly than supply. Here is a situation where some kind of subsidy for ethanol or a tax on oil will be needed to sustain ethanol as the transportation fuel of the future.

Using a conservative model, if we continue to emit greenhouse gases at the current rate the globa... more Using a conservative model, if we continue to emit greenhouse gases at the current rate the global average temperature will be 2C over pre-industrial levels by 2070, but if we make the changes suggested here it should be possible for global average temperature to be held at +1.6C by 2050 and be sustained at that level thereafter. There are two limbs to the strategy recommended here. The first is to cut CO2 emissions by 60% by 2050. The second is to have in place, by that date, the necessary infrastructure and planning to completely replace all fossil fuels with hydrogen gas created from water. This changeover will begin before 2050 and continue until about 2070, when it should be almost fully complete. This approach will not cause a radical reconstruction of all industrial processes, but can be carried out without ineffectively destroying current infrastructure, requiring the creation of brand new infrastructure. It will not result in the de-industrialisation of the world as some seem willing to contemplate, nor will it offer false hope for cuts that can never be delivered. The alternative approach, called "net-zero by 2050" involves continuing to use fossils fuels well into the future. The "net" part of the equation, to offset CO2 emissions, seems to be provided in this totally unworkable plan by growing lots of trees and other plants, cutting them down, then using the material supplied to create electricity and burying the resultant CO2 underground in "secure storage." It is argued here that world leaders now should look for solutions that use resources that we have in abundance, choosing solutions that help people to preserve their preferred way of life as far as possible and ones that look after the environment at the same time. More so, the leaders of prosperous nations should not chose solutions that will lead to further impoverishment of poor nations, but rather choose solutions that will help the leaders of those nations find the prosperity that the people of those nations truly seek.

The science of climate change is well established, based on formulae that have established the wa... more The science of climate change is well established, based on formulae that have established the warming potential of changes in the atmospheric composition of a range of gases. These formulae express this warming potential in terms of Watts per metre squared (W/m-2). Yet science does not yet supply a similarly neat formula that translates W/m-2 into a measure of the increase in global average temperature. Despite 30 years of work on the subject, the chase for a complex formula that works without ambiguity remains unresolved. Yet "Climate Change" is a macro expression and it is clear that an understandable solution can be found at the macro level. It is argued here that macro-modelling can provide exactly the required formula and at the same time provide a testable approach to support the existing results of Climate Change science.

Macro-modelling, using regression analysis over the period from 1850 to 2012, can be used to succ... more Macro-modelling, using regression analysis over the period from 1850 to 2012, can be used to successfully identify the impact of identified variables on the average annual global temperature. Variables included were: increases in the atmospheric levels of GHGs, anthropogenic atmospheric sulphur emissions, volcanic acidic aerosols, total solar irradiance and ENSO / El Niño. The generated model uses the IPCC's formulae for measuring the change in flux arising from the identified changes in the atmospheric levels of each of the GHGs. In addition, the model has been adapted to take into account delays in the heat taken up into the atmosphere. From this model we can calculate the observed climate sensitivity over the 163 years examined. This is shown to be 1.6 °C (with a 90% confidence range of 1.4-1.8 °C), even after taking into account all the "take-up delay" actually found in the data. Although there could be some residual delay not identified by the model, it is not sufficiently material to be actually found in data. Therefore this modelling allows us to propose that equilibrium climate sensitivity is likely to be very close to the 1.6 °C climate sensitivity observed in the data.

Upon taking office as bishop of Neocaesarea in Pontus, and in formulating his own theological pos... more Upon taking office as bishop of Neocaesarea in Pontus, and in formulating his own theological position, Gregory of Neocaesarea (also known as Gregory the Wonder-worker) drew on what he had learnt under Origen in order to craft his own Statement of Faith. Sometime later, an alternative Statement of Faith was produced by Lucian of Antioch, premised on a different view of the relationships within the Trinity. Arius also responded to Gregory’s Statement of Faith, contradicting it, point by point, in his Thalia. Even though Eusebius of Palestinian Caesarea would have been aware of Gregory’s theology and Statement of Faith, he used Lucian’s Statement when preparing the creed he submitted to the Council of Nicaea, in this way aligning himself with Lucian’s theological perspective against Gregory’s. Nevertheless, we can deduce that Gregory’s theology lived on, serving as a background to the development of the theological positions of the famous Cappadocians, especially the brothers, Basil of Cappadocian Caesarea and Gregory of Nyssa. Finally, we can say that there remains a parallel between the teachings of Cyril of Alexandria and Gregory of Neocaesarea, specifically in relation to their respective teachings on the sufferings of Christ.

The proposition argued here that the natural result of the Hebrew language moving from oral-only ... more The proposition argued here that the natural result of the Hebrew language moving from oral-only to a written form was a great flowering of literature in Hebrew. This can be seen in the historical books of 1 and 2 Samuel, which are so different from the orally-based book of Judges. Dating literacy in Hebrew to around David's time is not strictly controversial, since it is obvious from the texts, but it is further argued here that much of the material found in Proverbs, Ecclesiastes, Job and Song of Songs can also be reasonably dated around Solomon's time. The point here is not to promote an argument of actual authorship of these works by Biblical figures, since that has nothing to do with the case being presented. Rather, this article reflects upon the impact of the introduction of literacy in the Hebrew language – with its own character script (rather than via Akkadian, or via cuneiform symbols). Similarly, this article does not pretend to be a commentary on four quite different and difficult texts, but rather to provide a way of looking at these texts that is in accord with the likely historical situation in which the original texts were written. It is true that much current scholarship dismisses the possibility of an early date for these works, as is proposed here. Yet, it is argued that most scholars have not given sufficient regard to the possibility that these texts were somewhat modified by later editors and copiers. When the likelihood of later editing is considered, it is found that subsequent editorial changes can be identified and an original set of texts can be established for these four wisdom literature books. These reconstructed texts can, with confidence, be placed around Solomon's time.

This paper looks at the historical global temperature data and finds that macro-climate modelling... more This paper looks at the historical global temperature data and finds that macro-climate modelling can adequately explain this data, without having to utilise detailed physical models, which are, in fact, less able to identify long-term trends. Despite this, the IPCC leadership have been committed to ever more detailed micro-climate modelling, and have yet to embrace macroclimate modelling. If the IPCC had not been so obsessed with resolving the almost impossible task of physical modelling at the micro level, they would have saved a lot of argument about climate science. Moving from micro to macro modelling is not a new idea. It was an innovation in economics, introduced by Keynes, which can usefully be adopted in analysing long-term trends in the climate, particularly changes in average global temperature. Similarly, macroclimate modelling is able to show the relationship between changes in global average temperature and the drivers of those changes at a macro level.