Greg McMahon - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Greg McMahon
Hydrology & Water Resources Symposium, 2012
An issue arising with the January 2011 flood in South Queensland was the current practice of atta... more An issue arising with the January 2011 flood in South Queensland was the current practice of attaching a probability to very large floods, including the PMF. This paper addresses the history to the development of this practice, including: - The discussions transitioning from the opposite view to the current view - The summary problems with the practice - The methods adopted in engineering reports to deal with the problems associated with the practice. Certain situations arose during the South Queensland floods of 2011 that exemplify the practice as well as an alternative to the practice. The influences that the practice may be having on the community are discussed. The paper concludes that the use of the practice needs to be more controlled and perhaps limited to purposes where loss of life contributed to by false expectations held by community members does not arise. In any case, a fuller discussion than that that occurred during the writing of the current Australian Rainfall & Run-off is merited.
11th ISE 2016 Melbourne Australia, 2016
An issue arising with the January 2011 flood in South Queensland was the effectiveness of the Que... more An issue arising with the January 2011 flood in South Queensland was the effectiveness of the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry [QFCI], as an investigative process, in determining improved flood mitigation works and control procedures for future flood events. A $16 million class action has since been initiated in the Courts, making claims about the 2011 event that challenge the basic technical findings by the QFCI. The releases from the Callide Dam during Feb 2015, that reportedly constituted a two (2) metre flood wave that destroyed property and businesses in downstream communities, has drawn a new inquiry and possible class action into whether the lessons from the 2013 flood and from the QFCI have been learned by relevant Queensland Authorities. The Callide Dam Inquiry was not a quasi-judicial inquiry, but was conducted by a government official with responsibility for effecting emergency responses to floods. There has also been an inquiry into the QFCI findings from its investigation of the catastrophic flooding of Grantham. This paper evaluates the strengths and possible deficiencies in the technical outputs from the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry, and the factors of technical expertise and legal process that may have contributed to possible deficiencies. Other formats for conducting inquiry into technical issues using combinations of technical expertise and legal process are outlined, and these are considered for their potential for achieving improved technical outcomes. The paper concludes that independence of inquiry into technical issues is critical for optimum resolution of those technical issues.
11th ISE 2016 Melbourne Australia, 2016
Prior to 1986, Australian Rainfall and Runoff specifically required that overtopping of rockfill ... more Prior to 1986, Australian Rainfall and Runoff specifically required that overtopping of rockfill dams be prevented, by designing the spillway to have the capacity of the Maximum Probable Flood [PMF]. The perceived need to vary from this public safety standard followed increases in estimates of the Probable Maximum Precipitation [PMP] and thus increases in the PMF. These revisions to the design flows required existing dams in Australia to be upgraded, at significant cost to the community, if the public safety standard was to be maintained. The 'no-overtopping' standard was abandoned by principal engineering professional bodies and by government authorities in water engineering. There was considerable controversy at the time of the change. This paper offers perspectives, from recent flood events, as to the implications of the practice of designing rockfill dams and other dams to be overtopped by very large floods. The paper explains how these implications may be of a more physical, emotional, psychological and mathematical nature than the economic justifications given for the reduction on standards and guidelines effected 30 years ago. The paper describes how these implications may be adversely affecting the risk management of floods through rockfill dams intended by current procedures. A review of standards and guidelines applied to rockfill dams by engineering professional bodies is recommended. The inclusion of engineering professional bodies in that review, wider than the authors of standards and guidelines, is advocated.
Prior to 1986, Australian Rainfall and Runoff specifically required that overtopping of rockfill ... more Prior to 1986, Australian Rainfall and Runoff specifically required that overtopping of rockfill dams be prevented, by designing the spillway to have the capacity of the Maximum Probable Flood [PMF]. The perceived need to vary from this public safety standard followed increases in estimates of the Probable Maximum Precipitation [PMP] and thus increases in the PMF. These revisions to the design flows required existing dams in Australia to be upgraded, at significant cost to the community, if the public safety standard was to be maintained. The 'no-overtopping' standard was abandoned by principal engineering professional bodies and by government authorities in water engineering. There was considerable controversy at the time of the change. This paper offers perspectives, from recent flood events, as to the implications of the practice of designing rockfill dams and other dams to be overtopped by very large floods. The paper explains how these implications may be of a more physical, emotional, psychological and mathematical nature than the economic justifications given for the reduction on standards and guidelines effected 30 years ago. The paper describes how these implications may be adversely affecting the risk management of floods through rockfill dams intended by current procedures. A review of standards and guidelines applied to rockfill dams by engineering professional bodies is recommended. The inclusion of engineering professional bodies in that review, wider than the authors of standards and guidelines, is advocated.
An issue arising with the January 2011 flood in South Queensland was the effectiveness of the Que... more An issue arising with the January 2011 flood in South Queensland was the effectiveness of the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry [QFCI], as an investigative process, in determining improved flood mitigation works and control procedures for future flood events. A $16 million class action has since been initiated in the Courts, making claims about the 2011 event that challenge the basic technical findings by the QFCI. The releases from the Callide Dam during Feb 2015, that reportedly constituted a two (2) metre flood wave that destroyed property and businesses in downstream communities, has drawn a new inquiry and possible class action into whether the lessons from the 2013 flood and from the QFCI have been learned by relevant Queensland Authorities. The Callide Dam Inquiry was not a quasi-judicial inquiry, but was conducted by a government official with responsibility for effecting emergency responses to floods. There has also been an inquiry into the QFCI findings from its inves...
Entities can be challenged by situations that can emerge in the implementation of change projects... more Entities can be challenged by situations that can emerge in the implementation of change projects. The projects can be undertaken to adopt diversity practices, or to restructure for strategic opportunities, to introduce new technology, to reposition within the market, to change the leadership culture, or to meet community expectations regarding social or environmental factors. Such changes, and lower scale change projects within parts of any organisation, may not be destined to follow any plan - leaders may need to respond to fracturing, to resistance and / or to backlash. Some negative effects are inevitable. Success with such changes requires a progressive appreciation of the developing and turning negatives that any change can bring to frontline operations and support operations, to communications and coordinations within and across the teams and networks, and to the individuals who are affected negatively or positively by the changes. Superimposed changes, caused by a hasty sequ...
Prior to 1986, Australian Rainfall and Runoff specifically required that overtopping of rockfill ... more Prior to 1986, Australian Rainfall and Runoff specifically required that overtopping of rockfill dams be prevented, by designing the spillway to have the capacity of the Maximum Probable Flood [PMF]. The perceived need to vary from this public safety standard followed increases in estimates of the Probable Maximum Precipitation [PMP] and thus increases in the PMF. These revisions to the design flows required existing dams in Australia to be upgraded, at significant cost to the community, if the public safety standard was to be maintained. The 'no-overtopping' standard was abandoned by principal engineering professional bodies and by government authorities in water engineering. There was considerable controversy at the time of the change. This paper offers perspectives, from recent flood events, as to the implications of the practice of designing rockfill dams and other dams to be overtopped by very large floods. The paper explains how these implications may be of a more phys...
An issue arising with the January 2011 flood in South Queensland was the use of forecast rainfall... more An issue arising with the January 2011 flood in South Queensland was the use of forecast rainfalls in the control of flooding. The elements to the use of rainfall forecasts discussed in this paper include: - The reliability of rainfall forecasts, - The consideration given to the results from modeling that includes forecast rainfall, - The weight that is given to these results, - Operational aspects to dealing with differences between forecast and actual rainfalls, - The role of risk management in managing flood controls, and, - The alternatives to using forecast rainfall and risk management in the control of floods. Certain situations that arose during the South Queensland floods are used to show the choices that need to be made, and to appreciate the circumstances that have yet to be experienced in that region. The concept of a 'fog' of information that can occur in flood control situations is used to make the analogy with the 'fog' of war and thus explore how the m...
The aim of this paper is to illustrate how some project management concepts might assist the deve... more The aim of this paper is to illustrate how some project management concepts might assist the development of military doctrine for modern war Developments to date in military doctrine appear most sophisticated at the conventional warfighting end of the Spectrum of Conflict models used by most defence forces. The doctrine at the 'peace' end of the spectrum appears less so. Project management concepts, a 'Project-space' if you like, to accompany the Battlespace concepts in military doctrine, is discussed, using the examples of integration and stakeholder management as leads.
Hydrology & Water Resources Symposium, 2012
An issue arising with the January 2011 flood in South Queensland was the current practice of atta... more An issue arising with the January 2011 flood in South Queensland was the current practice of attaching a probability to very large floods, including the PMF. This paper addresses the history to the development of this practice, including: - The discussions transitioning from the opposite view to the current view - The summary problems with the practice - The methods adopted in engineering reports to deal with the problems associated with the practice. Certain situations arose during the South Queensland floods of 2011 that exemplify the practice as well as an alternative to the practice. The influences that the practice may be having on the community are discussed. The paper concludes that the use of the practice needs to be more controlled and perhaps limited to purposes where loss of life contributed to by false expectations held by community members does not arise. In any case, a fuller discussion than that that occurred during the writing of the current Australian Rainfall & Run-off is merited.
11th ISE 2016 Melbourne Australia, 2016
An issue arising with the January 2011 flood in South Queensland was the effectiveness of the Que... more An issue arising with the January 2011 flood in South Queensland was the effectiveness of the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry [QFCI], as an investigative process, in determining improved flood mitigation works and control procedures for future flood events. A $16 million class action has since been initiated in the Courts, making claims about the 2011 event that challenge the basic technical findings by the QFCI. The releases from the Callide Dam during Feb 2015, that reportedly constituted a two (2) metre flood wave that destroyed property and businesses in downstream communities, has drawn a new inquiry and possible class action into whether the lessons from the 2013 flood and from the QFCI have been learned by relevant Queensland Authorities. The Callide Dam Inquiry was not a quasi-judicial inquiry, but was conducted by a government official with responsibility for effecting emergency responses to floods. There has also been an inquiry into the QFCI findings from its investigation of the catastrophic flooding of Grantham. This paper evaluates the strengths and possible deficiencies in the technical outputs from the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry, and the factors of technical expertise and legal process that may have contributed to possible deficiencies. Other formats for conducting inquiry into technical issues using combinations of technical expertise and legal process are outlined, and these are considered for their potential for achieving improved technical outcomes. The paper concludes that independence of inquiry into technical issues is critical for optimum resolution of those technical issues.
11th ISE 2016 Melbourne Australia, 2016
Prior to 1986, Australian Rainfall and Runoff specifically required that overtopping of rockfill ... more Prior to 1986, Australian Rainfall and Runoff specifically required that overtopping of rockfill dams be prevented, by designing the spillway to have the capacity of the Maximum Probable Flood [PMF]. The perceived need to vary from this public safety standard followed increases in estimates of the Probable Maximum Precipitation [PMP] and thus increases in the PMF. These revisions to the design flows required existing dams in Australia to be upgraded, at significant cost to the community, if the public safety standard was to be maintained. The 'no-overtopping' standard was abandoned by principal engineering professional bodies and by government authorities in water engineering. There was considerable controversy at the time of the change. This paper offers perspectives, from recent flood events, as to the implications of the practice of designing rockfill dams and other dams to be overtopped by very large floods. The paper explains how these implications may be of a more physical, emotional, psychological and mathematical nature than the economic justifications given for the reduction on standards and guidelines effected 30 years ago. The paper describes how these implications may be adversely affecting the risk management of floods through rockfill dams intended by current procedures. A review of standards and guidelines applied to rockfill dams by engineering professional bodies is recommended. The inclusion of engineering professional bodies in that review, wider than the authors of standards and guidelines, is advocated.
Prior to 1986, Australian Rainfall and Runoff specifically required that overtopping of rockfill ... more Prior to 1986, Australian Rainfall and Runoff specifically required that overtopping of rockfill dams be prevented, by designing the spillway to have the capacity of the Maximum Probable Flood [PMF]. The perceived need to vary from this public safety standard followed increases in estimates of the Probable Maximum Precipitation [PMP] and thus increases in the PMF. These revisions to the design flows required existing dams in Australia to be upgraded, at significant cost to the community, if the public safety standard was to be maintained. The 'no-overtopping' standard was abandoned by principal engineering professional bodies and by government authorities in water engineering. There was considerable controversy at the time of the change. This paper offers perspectives, from recent flood events, as to the implications of the practice of designing rockfill dams and other dams to be overtopped by very large floods. The paper explains how these implications may be of a more physical, emotional, psychological and mathematical nature than the economic justifications given for the reduction on standards and guidelines effected 30 years ago. The paper describes how these implications may be adversely affecting the risk management of floods through rockfill dams intended by current procedures. A review of standards and guidelines applied to rockfill dams by engineering professional bodies is recommended. The inclusion of engineering professional bodies in that review, wider than the authors of standards and guidelines, is advocated.
An issue arising with the January 2011 flood in South Queensland was the effectiveness of the Que... more An issue arising with the January 2011 flood in South Queensland was the effectiveness of the Queensland Flood Commission of Inquiry [QFCI], as an investigative process, in determining improved flood mitigation works and control procedures for future flood events. A $16 million class action has since been initiated in the Courts, making claims about the 2011 event that challenge the basic technical findings by the QFCI. The releases from the Callide Dam during Feb 2015, that reportedly constituted a two (2) metre flood wave that destroyed property and businesses in downstream communities, has drawn a new inquiry and possible class action into whether the lessons from the 2013 flood and from the QFCI have been learned by relevant Queensland Authorities. The Callide Dam Inquiry was not a quasi-judicial inquiry, but was conducted by a government official with responsibility for effecting emergency responses to floods. There has also been an inquiry into the QFCI findings from its inves...
Entities can be challenged by situations that can emerge in the implementation of change projects... more Entities can be challenged by situations that can emerge in the implementation of change projects. The projects can be undertaken to adopt diversity practices, or to restructure for strategic opportunities, to introduce new technology, to reposition within the market, to change the leadership culture, or to meet community expectations regarding social or environmental factors. Such changes, and lower scale change projects within parts of any organisation, may not be destined to follow any plan - leaders may need to respond to fracturing, to resistance and / or to backlash. Some negative effects are inevitable. Success with such changes requires a progressive appreciation of the developing and turning negatives that any change can bring to frontline operations and support operations, to communications and coordinations within and across the teams and networks, and to the individuals who are affected negatively or positively by the changes. Superimposed changes, caused by a hasty sequ...
Prior to 1986, Australian Rainfall and Runoff specifically required that overtopping of rockfill ... more Prior to 1986, Australian Rainfall and Runoff specifically required that overtopping of rockfill dams be prevented, by designing the spillway to have the capacity of the Maximum Probable Flood [PMF]. The perceived need to vary from this public safety standard followed increases in estimates of the Probable Maximum Precipitation [PMP] and thus increases in the PMF. These revisions to the design flows required existing dams in Australia to be upgraded, at significant cost to the community, if the public safety standard was to be maintained. The 'no-overtopping' standard was abandoned by principal engineering professional bodies and by government authorities in water engineering. There was considerable controversy at the time of the change. This paper offers perspectives, from recent flood events, as to the implications of the practice of designing rockfill dams and other dams to be overtopped by very large floods. The paper explains how these implications may be of a more phys...
An issue arising with the January 2011 flood in South Queensland was the use of forecast rainfall... more An issue arising with the January 2011 flood in South Queensland was the use of forecast rainfalls in the control of flooding. The elements to the use of rainfall forecasts discussed in this paper include: - The reliability of rainfall forecasts, - The consideration given to the results from modeling that includes forecast rainfall, - The weight that is given to these results, - Operational aspects to dealing with differences between forecast and actual rainfalls, - The role of risk management in managing flood controls, and, - The alternatives to using forecast rainfall and risk management in the control of floods. Certain situations that arose during the South Queensland floods are used to show the choices that need to be made, and to appreciate the circumstances that have yet to be experienced in that region. The concept of a 'fog' of information that can occur in flood control situations is used to make the analogy with the 'fog' of war and thus explore how the m...
The aim of this paper is to illustrate how some project management concepts might assist the deve... more The aim of this paper is to illustrate how some project management concepts might assist the development of military doctrine for modern war Developments to date in military doctrine appear most sophisticated at the conventional warfighting end of the Spectrum of Conflict models used by most defence forces. The doctrine at the 'peace' end of the spectrum appears less so. Project management concepts, a 'Project-space' if you like, to accompany the Battlespace concepts in military doctrine, is discussed, using the examples of integration and stakeholder management as leads.