Gregory Parnell - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Gregory Parnell

Research paper thumbnail of Decision Making

Parnell/Decision Making 2E, 2010

Research paper thumbnail of Development and assessment of a resilient telecoms system

The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Jan 11, 2023

Emergency telecommunication infrastructure is essential for residents and emergency responders du... more Emergency telecommunication infrastructure is essential for residents and emergency responders during natural disasters to coordinate life-saving and life-preserving efforts. Ensuring resilience of the emergency telecommunication infrastructure is of critical importance for regions with an increased likelihood of natural disasters. We developed an integrated modeling framework for assessing emergency telecommunication systems. The framework used performance models to assess coverage and surge capabilities for a given system architecture. The performance models assess the telecom system value using a multiple objective decision analysis value model with stake-holder and technology performance measures. After constructing a life cycle cost model for emergency telecommunication systems, we conducted an illustrative value versus cost trade-off analysis using three alternative decision frames. The decision analysis framework allows for exploration of the system design tradespace so that decision-makers can select the best emergency telecom architecture using a defensible and transparent, performance-driven methodology.

Research paper thumbnail of Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering

INCOSE International Symposium

Research paper thumbnail of A Review of Set-Based Design Research Opportunities

Research paper thumbnail of A value of information methodology for multiobjective decisions in quantitative set‐based design

Systems Engineering, 2021

Engineering complex systems is an exercise in sequential multiobjective decision making under unc... more Engineering complex systems is an exercise in sequential multiobjective decision making under uncertainty. One method for handling this complexity and uncertainty is set‐based design (SBD). SBD is a concurrent engineering and management methodology that develops, analyzes, and matures numerous design options, reducing risk and delivering higher value to the stakeholders and end users. SBD accomplishes this through controlled design space convergence which reduces uncertainty and prevents premature design decisions. While SBD has been the subject of numerous scholarly articles, there is limited research providing quantitative methodologies that inform decisions enabling design maturation and convergence. We present a value of information (VOI) based methodology for multiobjective decision problems, and demonstrate its applicability for SBD decisions. We apply Bayesian decision models and information value to inform multiobjective modeling and design maturation decisions. Research con...

Research paper thumbnail of Best Practices for Stakeholder Engagement for Government R&D Organizations

Engineering Management Journal, 2022

Research paper thumbnail of Designing Engineered Resilient Systems Using Set-Based Design

Systems Engineering in Context, 2019

Designing resilience into a conceptual system has proven challenging to quantify and difficult to... more Designing resilience into a conceptual system has proven challenging to quantify and difficult to evaluate. Designing for resilience requires increasing complexity, requirements, and advancements in modeling capabilities. This paper details the use of set-based design to explore design concepts and identify designs with the potential to be resilient systems. Set-based design is a technique that explicitly considers sets of design alternatives with some common design choices. Contrary to point-based design, which selects a single concept and architecture, set-based design selects a set composed of a concept with multiple potential architectures, allowing multiple architectures to advance in the design process. With multiple architectures progressing, set-based design retains the flexibility to reevaluate affordability as requirements are refined and test data is generated. For the analysis, value and cost models are constructed using multiple objective decision analysis to define the value verses cost tradespace. The practice of set-based design expands the tradespace by generating thousands of alternatives across the design space, each alternative relatable in the tradespace by the alternative’s associated and unique cost and value. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of set-based design to evaluate system resilience. Specifically, this paper quantifies and evaluates mission resilience. Mission resilience is the value of performance maintained and recovered by the system in the face of potential performance losses suffered under a threat to the system. These concepts are applied to a military squad enhancement portfolio of systems illustration. Mission resilience value models are used in conjunction with cost models to determine affordability over the life cycle of the enhancements. Set-based design is used to explore the value versus cost tradespace, and a technique called iterative set-based design is employed to focus the tradespace on efficient and affordable solutions for further exploration. The results of this illustration identify solutions on the efficient frontier using an integrated trade-off analytics framework adaptable to requirements changes and able assess the impact of a change in near real time.

Research paper thumbnail of Informing Program Management Decisions Using Quantitative Set-Based Design

IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 2021

System design is an exercise in sequential decisionmaking, with the objective of developing resil... more System design is an exercise in sequential decisionmaking, with the objective of developing resilient and affordable systems. Throughout the design process, engineering and program managers must balance several competing objectives, such as ensuring design feasibility, minimizing cost, schedule, and performance risk, while simultaneously achieving stakeholder value. Thus, engineering and program managers require design and analysis methods enabling complex and multiobjective design decisions under uncertainty. Unfortunately, there exists limited research providing quantitative methodologies specifically enabling program management decisions using quantitative set-based design. We, therefore, present a quantitative set maturation and uncertainty resolution decision methodology using value-focused multiobjective decision models and model-based engineering practices. This methodology assesses and quantifies uncertainty regarding stakeholder value, cost, requirements, and design maturity for each design set. These metrics facilitate the calculation of the program manager value, which when combined with design set feasibility entropy, enable tradeoff analysis informing design maturation and uncertainty resolution prioritization decisions. We develop and demonstrate our methodology using a model-based unmanned aerial vehicle case study implemented in the ModelCenter modeling environment. This methodology provides program managers an efficient, cost effective, and defensible approach to inform system design maturation and uncertainty resolution decisions enabling the development of resilient and affordable systems.

Research paper thumbnail of Set‐based design: The state‐of‐practice and research opportunities

Systems Engineering, 2020

Increasing system complexity has provided the impetus to develop new and novel systems engineerin... more Increasing system complexity has provided the impetus to develop new and novel systems engineering methodologies. One of these methodologies is set‐based design (SBD), a concurrent design methodology well suited for complex systems subject to significant uncertainty. Since the 1990s, numerous private, public, and defense sector design programs have successfully implemented SBD. However, concerns regarding SBD's complexity, tendency toward qualitative methods, and lack of quantitative tools have limited its use. To address these issues, our research surveys 122 refereed journal articles and conference papers to assess SBD's state‐of‐practice and identify relevant research opportunities. To accomplish these tasks, we perform a structured literature review to identify and assess relevant and influential research. We found that SBD's state‐of‐practice relies heavily upon decision and tradespace analysis with increasing emphasis on uncertainty modeling and MBSE. We found that...

Research paper thumbnail of Demonstrating set-based design techniques: an unmanned aerial vehicle case study

The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology, 2019

The Engineered Resilient Systems research program seeks to improve decision making in the Analysi... more The Engineered Resilient Systems research program seeks to improve decision making in the Analysis of Alternatives process by leveraging model-based engineering (MBE) early in the design process to develop more resilient systems. Traditional tradespace exploration using point-based design often converges quickly to an initial baseline design concept with subsequent engineering changes to modify the design. However, this process can lead to significant cost growth if the initial concept is not able to meet requirements or if the revised design is not affordable. Enabled by MBE, set-based design (SBD) considers sets of all possible design concepts and down-selects design concepts to converge to a final design using insights into design trade-off analysis, modeling and simulation, and test data. Using a notional unmanned aerial vehicle case study with low-fidelity physics-based models and an open source Excel® add-in called SIPmath©, this research implements an integrated MBE trade-off...

Research paper thumbnail of Gulf Coast Port Selection Using Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis

Decision Analysis, 2019

In today’s competitive global markets, ports play a vital role in global supply chain operations.... more In today’s competitive global markets, ports play a vital role in global supply chain operations. A port selection model was developed to demonstrate the potential to aid shipping line companies with decisions to select the best ports in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Because port selection is complex, is dynamic, and includes multiple objectives, a multiple-objective decision analysis quantified the value of the various ports using industry data and an industry expert’s knowledge. In addition, a corresponding cost model was developed using available cost data for each port. Monte Carlo simulation analyzed the uncertainties in the value and cost models. For the demonstration model scenario assumptions, the results show that the Houston port would be the best alternative for shipping lines in the Gulf Coast. The value model also identified opportunities for improvement for each port compared with the best West Coast port. The demonstration models show that port data exist to support the develo...

Research paper thumbnail of Engineered Resilient Systems with Value Focused Thinking

INCOSE International Symposium, 2017

Complex DoD systems need to be resilient due to evolving adversarial and environmental threats. T... more Complex DoD systems need to be resilient due to evolving adversarial and environmental threats. The DoD created a program called Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) to increase resilience in future systems. In our ERS research, resilience has been separated into two parts, mission and platform resilience. Mission resilience is the ability of a system to repel, resist, absorb, and recover from environments and threats that occur on planned missions. Platform resilience is the ability of a system to adapt to new missions and new threats. Using capabilities based planning one can map platform and mission resilience. This paper addresses how a valuefocused thinking (VFT) multiple objective decision analysis (MODA) model is a useful tool for capabilities based assessments. If all performance objectives can be categorized as mission or platform resilience, this extra value above the threshold of the minimum performance can provide mission and platform resilience. Displaying this information in a value component chart and a floating value chart allows decision makers to consider resilience early in the acquisition decision making process.

Research paper thumbnail of Integrating Reliability in Conceptual Design Trade‐Off Analysis: A look at the Literature

INCOSE International Symposium, Jul 1, 2022

Research paper thumbnail of Defining Resilience for Engineered Systems

Engineering Management Research, 2019

This paper surveys the literature on resilience, provides several definitions of resilience, and ... more This paper surveys the literature on resilience, provides several definitions of resilience, and proposes a new comprehensive definition for a resilient engineered system, which is: a system that is able to successfully complete its planned mission(s) in the face of disruption(s) (environmental or adversarial), and has capabilities allowing it to successfully complete future missions with evolving threats. This definition captures the subtle differences between resilience and a resilient engineered system. We further examine the terminology associated with resilience to understand the various resilient time-frames and use the terminology to propose a resilience cycle, which differentiates mission resilience (short term) and platform resilience (long term). We then provide insight into various resilience evaluation methodologies and discuss how understanding the full scope of resilience enable designers to better incorporate resilience into system design, decision makers to consider ...

Research paper thumbnail of Frame the Decision

Research paper thumbnail of Quantify Uncertainty

Research paper thumbnail of Avoiding Common Pitfalls in Decision Support Frameworks for Department of Defense Analyses

Military Operations Research, 2008

Research paper thumbnail of Assessing Communications Systems for the Australian Defense Force

ASIA PACIFIC JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, 1997

Research paper thumbnail of Integrating risk management with homeland security and antiterrorism resource allocation decision-making

The McGraw-Hill Handbook of Homeland Security, 2005

Research paper thumbnail of Quantifying CERCLA using site decision maker values

Remediation, 1998

This article shows how decision analysis techniques assisted decision makers in the critical RI/F... more This article shows how decision analysis techniques assisted decision makers in the critical RI/FS task of technology selection at a specific Superfund site. Each remediation alternative's performance was quantified by creating a set of objective evaluation measures tied to the criteria mandated in the comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act of 1980. The evaluation measure scores were input into a quantitative decision analysis model used to rank alternatives based on their performance relative to the CERCLA criteria, and to provide insight to the sensitivity of the results to changes in decision maker preferences or technology performance. The model is designed to reflect the site decision maker's preferences and the site-specific characteristics within the framework of the nine CERCLA criteria. This model will give Superfund site decision makers an objective and transparent framework to evaluate remedial technologies.

Research paper thumbnail of Decision Making

Parnell/Decision Making 2E, 2010

Research paper thumbnail of Development and assessment of a resilient telecoms system

The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, Jan 11, 2023

Emergency telecommunication infrastructure is essential for residents and emergency responders du... more Emergency telecommunication infrastructure is essential for residents and emergency responders during natural disasters to coordinate life-saving and life-preserving efforts. Ensuring resilience of the emergency telecommunication infrastructure is of critical importance for regions with an increased likelihood of natural disasters. We developed an integrated modeling framework for assessing emergency telecommunication systems. The framework used performance models to assess coverage and surge capabilities for a given system architecture. The performance models assess the telecom system value using a multiple objective decision analysis value model with stake-holder and technology performance measures. After constructing a life cycle cost model for emergency telecommunication systems, we conducted an illustrative value versus cost trade-off analysis using three alternative decision frames. The decision analysis framework allows for exploration of the system design tradespace so that decision-makers can select the best emergency telecom architecture using a defensible and transparent, performance-driven methodology.

Research paper thumbnail of Systems Engineering and Industrial Engineering

INCOSE International Symposium

Research paper thumbnail of A Review of Set-Based Design Research Opportunities

Research paper thumbnail of A value of information methodology for multiobjective decisions in quantitative set‐based design

Systems Engineering, 2021

Engineering complex systems is an exercise in sequential multiobjective decision making under unc... more Engineering complex systems is an exercise in sequential multiobjective decision making under uncertainty. One method for handling this complexity and uncertainty is set‐based design (SBD). SBD is a concurrent engineering and management methodology that develops, analyzes, and matures numerous design options, reducing risk and delivering higher value to the stakeholders and end users. SBD accomplishes this through controlled design space convergence which reduces uncertainty and prevents premature design decisions. While SBD has been the subject of numerous scholarly articles, there is limited research providing quantitative methodologies that inform decisions enabling design maturation and convergence. We present a value of information (VOI) based methodology for multiobjective decision problems, and demonstrate its applicability for SBD decisions. We apply Bayesian decision models and information value to inform multiobjective modeling and design maturation decisions. Research con...

Research paper thumbnail of Best Practices for Stakeholder Engagement for Government R&D Organizations

Engineering Management Journal, 2022

Research paper thumbnail of Designing Engineered Resilient Systems Using Set-Based Design

Systems Engineering in Context, 2019

Designing resilience into a conceptual system has proven challenging to quantify and difficult to... more Designing resilience into a conceptual system has proven challenging to quantify and difficult to evaluate. Designing for resilience requires increasing complexity, requirements, and advancements in modeling capabilities. This paper details the use of set-based design to explore design concepts and identify designs with the potential to be resilient systems. Set-based design is a technique that explicitly considers sets of design alternatives with some common design choices. Contrary to point-based design, which selects a single concept and architecture, set-based design selects a set composed of a concept with multiple potential architectures, allowing multiple architectures to advance in the design process. With multiple architectures progressing, set-based design retains the flexibility to reevaluate affordability as requirements are refined and test data is generated. For the analysis, value and cost models are constructed using multiple objective decision analysis to define the value verses cost tradespace. The practice of set-based design expands the tradespace by generating thousands of alternatives across the design space, each alternative relatable in the tradespace by the alternative’s associated and unique cost and value. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of set-based design to evaluate system resilience. Specifically, this paper quantifies and evaluates mission resilience. Mission resilience is the value of performance maintained and recovered by the system in the face of potential performance losses suffered under a threat to the system. These concepts are applied to a military squad enhancement portfolio of systems illustration. Mission resilience value models are used in conjunction with cost models to determine affordability over the life cycle of the enhancements. Set-based design is used to explore the value versus cost tradespace, and a technique called iterative set-based design is employed to focus the tradespace on efficient and affordable solutions for further exploration. The results of this illustration identify solutions on the efficient frontier using an integrated trade-off analytics framework adaptable to requirements changes and able assess the impact of a change in near real time.

Research paper thumbnail of Informing Program Management Decisions Using Quantitative Set-Based Design

IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 2021

System design is an exercise in sequential decisionmaking, with the objective of developing resil... more System design is an exercise in sequential decisionmaking, with the objective of developing resilient and affordable systems. Throughout the design process, engineering and program managers must balance several competing objectives, such as ensuring design feasibility, minimizing cost, schedule, and performance risk, while simultaneously achieving stakeholder value. Thus, engineering and program managers require design and analysis methods enabling complex and multiobjective design decisions under uncertainty. Unfortunately, there exists limited research providing quantitative methodologies specifically enabling program management decisions using quantitative set-based design. We, therefore, present a quantitative set maturation and uncertainty resolution decision methodology using value-focused multiobjective decision models and model-based engineering practices. This methodology assesses and quantifies uncertainty regarding stakeholder value, cost, requirements, and design maturity for each design set. These metrics facilitate the calculation of the program manager value, which when combined with design set feasibility entropy, enable tradeoff analysis informing design maturation and uncertainty resolution prioritization decisions. We develop and demonstrate our methodology using a model-based unmanned aerial vehicle case study implemented in the ModelCenter modeling environment. This methodology provides program managers an efficient, cost effective, and defensible approach to inform system design maturation and uncertainty resolution decisions enabling the development of resilient and affordable systems.

Research paper thumbnail of Set‐based design: The state‐of‐practice and research opportunities

Systems Engineering, 2020

Increasing system complexity has provided the impetus to develop new and novel systems engineerin... more Increasing system complexity has provided the impetus to develop new and novel systems engineering methodologies. One of these methodologies is set‐based design (SBD), a concurrent design methodology well suited for complex systems subject to significant uncertainty. Since the 1990s, numerous private, public, and defense sector design programs have successfully implemented SBD. However, concerns regarding SBD's complexity, tendency toward qualitative methods, and lack of quantitative tools have limited its use. To address these issues, our research surveys 122 refereed journal articles and conference papers to assess SBD's state‐of‐practice and identify relevant research opportunities. To accomplish these tasks, we perform a structured literature review to identify and assess relevant and influential research. We found that SBD's state‐of‐practice relies heavily upon decision and tradespace analysis with increasing emphasis on uncertainty modeling and MBSE. We found that...

Research paper thumbnail of Demonstrating set-based design techniques: an unmanned aerial vehicle case study

The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology, 2019

The Engineered Resilient Systems research program seeks to improve decision making in the Analysi... more The Engineered Resilient Systems research program seeks to improve decision making in the Analysis of Alternatives process by leveraging model-based engineering (MBE) early in the design process to develop more resilient systems. Traditional tradespace exploration using point-based design often converges quickly to an initial baseline design concept with subsequent engineering changes to modify the design. However, this process can lead to significant cost growth if the initial concept is not able to meet requirements or if the revised design is not affordable. Enabled by MBE, set-based design (SBD) considers sets of all possible design concepts and down-selects design concepts to converge to a final design using insights into design trade-off analysis, modeling and simulation, and test data. Using a notional unmanned aerial vehicle case study with low-fidelity physics-based models and an open source Excel® add-in called SIPmath©, this research implements an integrated MBE trade-off...

Research paper thumbnail of Gulf Coast Port Selection Using Multiple-Objective Decision Analysis

Decision Analysis, 2019

In today’s competitive global markets, ports play a vital role in global supply chain operations.... more In today’s competitive global markets, ports play a vital role in global supply chain operations. A port selection model was developed to demonstrate the potential to aid shipping line companies with decisions to select the best ports in the U.S. Gulf Coast. Because port selection is complex, is dynamic, and includes multiple objectives, a multiple-objective decision analysis quantified the value of the various ports using industry data and an industry expert’s knowledge. In addition, a corresponding cost model was developed using available cost data for each port. Monte Carlo simulation analyzed the uncertainties in the value and cost models. For the demonstration model scenario assumptions, the results show that the Houston port would be the best alternative for shipping lines in the Gulf Coast. The value model also identified opportunities for improvement for each port compared with the best West Coast port. The demonstration models show that port data exist to support the develo...

Research paper thumbnail of Engineered Resilient Systems with Value Focused Thinking

INCOSE International Symposium, 2017

Complex DoD systems need to be resilient due to evolving adversarial and environmental threats. T... more Complex DoD systems need to be resilient due to evolving adversarial and environmental threats. The DoD created a program called Engineered Resilient Systems (ERS) to increase resilience in future systems. In our ERS research, resilience has been separated into two parts, mission and platform resilience. Mission resilience is the ability of a system to repel, resist, absorb, and recover from environments and threats that occur on planned missions. Platform resilience is the ability of a system to adapt to new missions and new threats. Using capabilities based planning one can map platform and mission resilience. This paper addresses how a valuefocused thinking (VFT) multiple objective decision analysis (MODA) model is a useful tool for capabilities based assessments. If all performance objectives can be categorized as mission or platform resilience, this extra value above the threshold of the minimum performance can provide mission and platform resilience. Displaying this information in a value component chart and a floating value chart allows decision makers to consider resilience early in the acquisition decision making process.

Research paper thumbnail of Integrating Reliability in Conceptual Design Trade‐Off Analysis: A look at the Literature

INCOSE International Symposium, Jul 1, 2022

Research paper thumbnail of Defining Resilience for Engineered Systems

Engineering Management Research, 2019

This paper surveys the literature on resilience, provides several definitions of resilience, and ... more This paper surveys the literature on resilience, provides several definitions of resilience, and proposes a new comprehensive definition for a resilient engineered system, which is: a system that is able to successfully complete its planned mission(s) in the face of disruption(s) (environmental or adversarial), and has capabilities allowing it to successfully complete future missions with evolving threats. This definition captures the subtle differences between resilience and a resilient engineered system. We further examine the terminology associated with resilience to understand the various resilient time-frames and use the terminology to propose a resilience cycle, which differentiates mission resilience (short term) and platform resilience (long term). We then provide insight into various resilience evaluation methodologies and discuss how understanding the full scope of resilience enable designers to better incorporate resilience into system design, decision makers to consider ...

Research paper thumbnail of Frame the Decision

Research paper thumbnail of Quantify Uncertainty

Research paper thumbnail of Avoiding Common Pitfalls in Decision Support Frameworks for Department of Defense Analyses

Military Operations Research, 2008

Research paper thumbnail of Assessing Communications Systems for the Australian Defense Force

ASIA PACIFIC JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH, 1997

Research paper thumbnail of Integrating risk management with homeland security and antiterrorism resource allocation decision-making

The McGraw-Hill Handbook of Homeland Security, 2005

Research paper thumbnail of Quantifying CERCLA using site decision maker values

Remediation, 1998

This article shows how decision analysis techniques assisted decision makers in the critical RI/F... more This article shows how decision analysis techniques assisted decision makers in the critical RI/FS task of technology selection at a specific Superfund site. Each remediation alternative's performance was quantified by creating a set of objective evaluation measures tied to the criteria mandated in the comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act of 1980. The evaluation measure scores were input into a quantitative decision analysis model used to rank alternatives based on their performance relative to the CERCLA criteria, and to provide insight to the sensitivity of the results to changes in decision maker preferences or technology performance. The model is designed to reflect the site decision maker's preferences and the site-specific characteristics within the framework of the nine CERCLA criteria. This model will give Superfund site decision makers an objective and transparent framework to evaluate remedial technologies.