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Papers by Gregory Schwarz

The Astronomical Journal, 2007

A J A c c e p t e d 2 0 0 7 -2 -

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 1998

LMC 1988 1 was a moderately fast, CO, dust-forming classical nova. It was observed extensively in... more LMC 1988 1 was a moderately fast, CO, dust-forming classical nova. It was observed extensively in many different wavelength regions during its early evolution. The UV, optical and infrared light curves of LMC 1988 1 are very similar to those of the Galactic Nova V1668 Cyg 1978. As in V1668 Cyg, LMC 1988 1 showed the presence of an optically

JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2009

Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the G... more Excessive loads of nutrients transported by tributary rivers have been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. Management efforts to reduce the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico and improve the water quality of rivers and streams could benefit from targeting nutrient reductions toward watersheds with the highest nutrient yields delivered to sensitive downstream waters. One challenge is that most conventional watershed modeling approaches (e.g., mechanistic models) used in these management decisions do not consider uncertainties in the predictions of nutrient yields and their downstream delivery. The increasing use of parameter estimation procedures to statistically estimate model coefficients, however, allows uncertainties in these predictions to be reliably estimated. Here, we use a robust bootstrapping procedure applied to the results of a previous application of the hybrid statistical ⁄ mechanistic watershed model SPARROW (Spatially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes) to develop a statistically reliable method for identifying ''high priority'' areas for management, based on a probabilistic ranking of delivered nutrient yields from watersheds throughout a basin. The method is designed to be used by managers to prioritize watersheds where additional stream monitoring and evaluations of nutrient-reduction strategies could be undertaken. Our ranking procedure incorporates information on the confidence intervals of model predictions and the corresponding watershed rankings of the delivered nutrient yields. From this quantified uncertainty, we estimate the probability that individual watersheds are among a collection of watersheds that have the highest delivered nutrient yields. We illustrate the application of the procedure to 818 eight-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds in the Mississippi ⁄ Atchafalaya River basin by identifying 150 watersheds having the highest delivered nutrient yields to the Gulf of Mexico. Highest delivered yields were from watersheds in the Central Mississippi, Ohio, and Lower Mississippi River basins. With 90% confidence, only a few watersheds can be reliably placed into the highest 150 category; however, many more watersheds can be removed from consideration as not belonging to the highest 150 category. Results from this ranking procedure provide robust information on watershed nutrient yields that can benefit management efforts to reduce nutrient loadings to downstream coastal waters, such as the Gulf of Mexico, or to local receiving streams and reservoirs.

JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2014

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loading from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) has b... more Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) loading from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) has been linked to hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. With geospatial datasets for 2002, including inputs from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs), and monitored loads throughout the MARB, SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) watershed models were constructed specifically for the MARB, which reduced simulation errors from previous models. Based on these models, N loads/yields were highest from the central part (centered over Iowa and Indiana) of the MARB (Corn Belt), and the highest P yields were scattered throughout the MARB. Spatial differences in yields from previous studies resulted from different descriptions of the dominant sources (N yields are highest with crop-oriented agriculture and P yields are highest with crop and animal agriculture and major WWTPs) and different descriptions of downstream transport. Delivered loads/yields from the MARB SPARROW models are used to rank subbasins, states, and eight-digit Hydrologic Unit Code basins (HUC8s) by N and P contributions and then rankings are compared with those from other studies. Changes in delivered yields result in an average absolute change of 1.3 (N) and 1.9 (P) places in state ranking and 41 (N) and 69 (P) places in HUC8 ranking from those made with previous national-scale SPARROW models. This information may help managers decide where efforts could have the largest effects (highest ranked areas) and thus reduce hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico.

Journal of Hydrology, 2012

Sediment transport Regression Water quality Ungaged GAGES SPARROW s u m m a r y Estimates of mean... more Sediment transport Regression Water quality Ungaged GAGES SPARROW s u m m a r y Estimates of mean annual watershed sediment discharge, derived from long-term measurements of suspended-sediment concentration and streamflow, often are not available at locations of interest. The goal of this study was to develop multivariate regression models to enable prediction of mean annual suspended-sediment discharge from available basin characteristics useful for most ungaged river locations in the eastern United States. The models are based on long-term mean sediment discharge estimates and explanatory variables obtained from a combined dataset of 1201 US Geological Survey (USGS) stations derived from a SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) study and the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow (GAGES) database. The resulting regional regression models summarized for major US water resources regions 1-8, exhibited prediction R 2 values ranging from 76.9% to 92.7% and corresponding average model prediction errors ranging from 56.5% to 124.3%. Results from cross-validation experiments suggest that a majority of the models will perform similarly to calibration runs. The 36-parameter regional regression models also outperformed a 16-parameter national SPARROW model of suspended-sediment discharge and indicate that mean annual sediment loads in the eastern United States generally correlates with a combination of basin area, land use patterns, seasonal precipitation, soil composition, hydrologic modification, and to a lesser extent, topography.

Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 2007

1] The frequency and magnitude of hypoxic areas in coastal waterbodies are increasing across the ... more 1] The frequency and magnitude of hypoxic areas in coastal waterbodies are increasing across the globe, partially in response to the increase in nitrogen delivery from the landscape . Although studies of annual total nitrogen and nitrate yields have greatly improved understanding of the contaminant sources that contribute to riverine nitrogen loads , the emphasis of these studies on annual timescales and selected nitrogen forms is not sufficient to understand the factors that control the cycling, transport, and fate of reactive nitrogen. Here we use data from 850 river stations to calculate long-term mean-annual and interannual loads of organic, ammonia, and nitrate-nitrite nitrogen suitable for spatial analysis. We find that organic nitrogen is the dominant nitrogen pool within rivers across most of the United States and is significant even in basins with high anthropogenic sources of nitrogen. Downstream organic nitrogen patterns illustrate that organic nitrogen is an abundant fraction of the nitrogen loads in all regions. Although the longitudinal patterns are not consistent across regions, these patterns are suggestive of cycling between ON and NO 3 À on seasonal timescales influenced by land use, stream morphology, and riparian connectivity with active floodplains. Future regional studies need to incorporate multinitrogen species at intraannual timescales, as well as stream characteristics beyond channel depth, to elucidate the roles of nitrogen sources and in-stream transformations on the fate and reactivity of riverine nitrogen transported to coastal seas.

JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 2010

We describe the sources and transport of fluvial suspended sediment in nontidal streams of the Ch... more We describe the sources and transport of fluvial suspended sediment in nontidal streams of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and vicinity. We applied SPAtially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes, which spatially correlates estimated mean annual flux of suspended sediment in nontidal streams with sources of suspended sediment and transport factors. According to our model, urban development generates on average the greatest amount of suspended sediment per unit area (3,928 Mg ⁄ km 2 ⁄ year), although agriculture is much more widespread and is the greatest overall source of suspended sediment (57 Mg ⁄ km 2 ⁄ year). Factors affecting sediment transport from uplands to streams include mean basin slope, reservoirs, physiography, and soil permeability. On average, 59% of upland suspended sediment generated is temporarily stored along large rivers draining the Coastal Plain or in reservoirs throughout the watershed. Applying erosion and sediment controls from agriculture and urban development in areas of the northern Piedmont close to the upper Bay, where the combined effects of watershed characteristics on sediment transport have the greatest influence may be most helpful in mitigating sedimentation in the bay and its tributaries. Stream restoration efforts addressing floodplain and bank stabilization and incision may be more effective in smaller, headwater streams outside of the Coastal Plain.