Guntur Sugiyarto - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Guntur Sugiyarto

Global Economic Review, 2010

Series is a forum for stimulating discussion and eliciting feedback on ongoing and recently compl... more Series is a forum for stimulating discussion and eliciting feedback on ongoing and recently completed research and policy studies undertaken by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) staff, consultants, or resource persons. The series deals with key economic and development problems, particularly those facing the Asia and Pacific region; as well as conceptual, analytical, or methodological issues relating to project/program economic analysis, and statistical data and measurement. The series aims to enhance the knowledge on Asia's development and policy challenges; strengthen analytical rigor and quality of ADB's country partnership strategies, and its subregional and country operations; and improve the quality and availability of statistical data and development indicators for monitoring development effectiveness.

Douglas H. Brooks is Principal Economist and Guntur Sugiyarto is Economist in the Economics and R... more Douglas H. Brooks is Principal Economist and Guntur Sugiyarto is Economist in the Economics and Research Department of the Asian Development Bank. This paper represents the views of the authors and does not represent those of the Asian Development Bank, its Executive ...

The work of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is aimed at improving the welfare of the people in A... more The work of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is aimed at improving the welfare of the people in Asia and the Pacific, particularly the 1.9 billion who live on less than $2 a day. Despite many success stories, Asia and the Pacific remains home to two thirds of the world's poor. ADB is a multilateral development finance institution owned by 67 members, 48 from the region and 19 from other parts of the globe. ADB's vision is a region free of poverty. Its mission is to help its developing member countries reduce poverty and improve the quality of life of their citizens.

… Record: Journal of the …, Jan 1, 2010

Infrastructure development across Central Asia facilitates connectivity, competitiveness, product... more Infrastructure development across Central Asia facilitates connectivity, competitiveness, productivity, and ultimately economic growth and regional integration. A sample development project is a large road corridor in Kazakhstan. This report shows the economic impact of ...

Transportation Research Record

University of California, …, Jan 1, 2010

As Asia consolidates the economic gains and policy lessons of two generations, it can look to a b... more As Asia consolidates the economic gains and policy lessons of two generations, it can look to a bright future of sustained growth. More effective policies will even accelerate this growth, provided they recognize the essential agents of trade and productivity growth, as well as the importance of promoting domestic regional demand. Rising incomes promise greater homegrown demand for domestic producers and essential diversification for regional exporters. This study surveys historical income distribution data from 22 Asian economies, projects the emergence of middle classes in the next 20 years, and examines its role in Asian economies. The study also examines the drivers of growth over this periond using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to forecast GDP and consumption trends. The findings suggest that Asia can sustain and even accelerate current patterns of poverty reduction and livelihood advancement beyond poverty. Over the next 20 years, about 1 billion people will be added to the 2.7 billion Asian middle class (based on $2-a-day PPP standard). The rate of middle class emergence will be uneven across the region and will depend mostly on initial conditions. The results also suggest that energy price vulnerability is a critical risk to regional growth-and calls for energy efficiency measures to insure against this risk. The agricultural productivity growth can improve both the incomes of the majority of Asia's rural poor and the purchasing power of urbanites. Policies that reduce both energy and food costs can therefore be a potent source of new demand for products and services as well as jobs. Finally, given the importance of labor resources to Asian growth, skills development is the most critical prerequisite for realizing the vast economic potential of Asia. Higher incomes, a larger middle class, and self-sustaining prosperity can only be built on the foundation of a skilled and productive labor force that captures significant value added and channels higher incomes into sustained long-term expenditure, savings, and investment. JEL classification: O15, O4, O53 58 ASIAN DEVELOPMENT REVIEW

The biofuel policy of India stipulates a blending target of 20% for both bioethanol and biodiesel... more The biofuel policy of India stipulates a blending target of 20% for both bioethanol and biodiesel. In the case of biodiesel, this target is to be achieved using wastelands and fallow lands to cultivate nonedible oil seed plants without affecting food security. This paper ...

Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Jan 1, 2005

fourth Poverty and Economic Policy ( …, Jan 1, 2005

This paper assesses the poverty impact of the December 2004 tsunami by relying on hard evidences ... more This paper assesses the poverty impact of the December 2004 tsunami by relying on hard evidences on the number of casualties and displaced people as well as physical damages of villages and houses.

… Annual Conference on …, Jan 1, 2003

There is still considerable debate on the issue of trade liberalization in the form of tariff red... more There is still considerable debate on the issue of trade liberalization in the form of tariff reductions, particularly about its economic benefits and its forms. In contrast to standard assumptions, trade liberalization in developing countries commonly occurs in a context of multiple distortions, notably in the labor market in the form of wage rigidities. Governments have introduced various regulations resulting in wage rigidities with the objective of providing lower cost inputs or restraining relative wage bargaining, thereby limiting the cost of the public sector wage bill. Prediction of trade liberalization effects within this context is by no means clear. An important issue relating to tariff liberalization is, therefore, the economic effects that will ensue within a context of labor market distortions, compared with the effects that would occur if such distortions were removed.

7th Annual Conference …, Jan 1, 2004

Trade liberalization has long been advocated for standard reasons of increasing competition and w... more Trade liberalization has long been advocated for standard reasons of increasing competition and welfare. Yet, there is still considerable debate, particularly in developing countries, about the range of effects that result from liberalization and the relative magnitudes of different effects. Such debate stems, in part, from the fact that trade reform takes place in a distortionary context. The effects of trade reform in the presence of other distortions fall into two strands: trade liberalization and distortionary domestic taxes, and trade liberalization and labor market distortions. Whereas the former has received significant attention, the analysis has generally been undertaken in the context of an unchanging labor market regime. However, labor market reforms are commonly under consideration, so that it is important to take account of their possible effects on trade liberalization and welfare of different sectors of the population.

Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Jan 1, 2008

Unemployment and underemployment are the most pressing problems in Asia today, as reflected in th... more Unemployment and underemployment are the most pressing problems in Asia today, as reflected in the widespread underutilization rate of about 29% of the total labor force. Most labor forces in developing countries cannot afford to be completely unemployed and the standard ...

Journal of Development …, Jan 1, 2011

The paper examines impact of two water supply and sanitation projects in rural Pakistan in improv... more The paper examines impact of two water supply and sanitation projects in rural Pakistan in improving access to water supply and sanitation and on health, education, and labour supply based on a household survey of 1300 project and 1300 comparison house-holds. The impact was ...