Paul-Simon Handy - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Paul-Simon Handy

Routledge eBooks, Dec 18, 2007

Institute for Security Studies Papers, Aug 1, 2009

Ce papier porte sur le coup d'Etat militaire intervenu en Guinee le 23 decembre 2008 a la sui... more Ce papier porte sur le coup d'Etat militaire intervenu en Guinee le 23 decembre 2008 a la suite de la mort du President Lansana Conte, au pouvoir depuis avril 1984, et le processus de transition qu'il a declenche. Il tente d'expliquer les differences d'appreciation initiale des populations guineennes, d'un cote, et de la communaute internationale, de l'autre, quant a ce coup de force. Il porte egalement une reflexion sur ce que certains ont appele la recrudescence des coups de force en Afrique et identifie des defis et certaines mesures susceptibles d'eclairer la transition en Guinee. La question n'etant pas limitee a la Guinee, le papier fournit des elements de reflexion afin que l'UA et les organisations sous-regionales puissent, a l'avenir, minimiser le risque de coup d'Etat sur le continent.

African Security Review, Mar 1, 2010

Following the end of a successful inclusive political dialogue and the adherence to peace process... more Following the end of a successful inclusive political dialogue and the adherence to peace processes by the majority of military opposition groups in the Central African Republic, elections have been set up for 2010. Constitutionally, these elections must be held before April 2010 and similarly, the mandate of sitting President François Bozizé comes to an end in June 2010. As

African Security Review, Jun 1, 2013

This article examines the state of the art of early warning in Africa. It looks at the definition... more This article examines the state of the art of early warning in Africa. It looks at the definitions of early warning, considers the historical evolution of conflict early warning systems, and takes a critical look at the debate about the link or the gap between early warning and early action. To this end, it tries to answer some important questions, particularly in relation to the purpose of early warning systems (EWSs) and their limitations so as to ensure that EWSs and early warning analysts are taken for what they are, and not criticised for what they are not or cannot do. In essence, it underscores the fact that the field of conflict early warning is not a fortune-telling business; an industry aimed at predicting socio-political events. The field and its different actors and mechanisms typically serve various purposes and rely on networks and open sources as well as cooperation. At times, some actions are indeed taken and potential conflicts prevented, but these actions do not come to the attention of outside observers precisely because nothing happened. It acknowledges, however, that the field can still learn from past experiences and improve on its delivery, at the level of both analysis and the ensuing action.

African Security Review, Mar 1, 2012

The dramatic events of the Arab Spring have changed the political landscape in Africa and showed ... more The dramatic events of the Arab Spring have changed the political landscape in Africa and showed up both the need for and the shortcomings of the African Union. The author looks at the impact of the past year on security issues across Africa.

International interventions in Chad, such as the European Eufor Chad, must address structural pro... more International interventions in Chad, such as the European Eufor Chad, must address structural problems linked to governance and democracy by helping Chadian political actors to reform the country's social contract instead of focusing on preserving stability and, thus, becoming part of the problem and not of the solution.

African Security Review, 2005

Extracted from text ... AFRICA WATCH THE DYNASTIC SUCCESSION IN TOGO Continental and regional imp... more Extracted from text ... AFRICA WATCH THE DYNASTIC SUCCESSION IN TOGO Continental and regional implications PAUL SIMON HANDY Introduction The presidential poll that took place in Togo on 24 April 2005 was certainly not a model of transparency. On the contrary, it consecrated a dynastic succession and deepened the societal divide in a country that has suffered 38 years of autocratic rule. The role played by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU) in Togo has raised a series of questions which suggest the limitations of a wholly African management system for governments in peril. ..

African Studies Companion Online

African Security Review, Sep 1, 2010

Abstract The growing importance of regional economic communities and the African Union as African... more Abstract The growing importance of regional economic communities and the African Union as African supranational organisations aimed at promoting and implementing common norms and principles has transformed the landscape of African governance. Based on a consensus model that was previously geared towards the fight against colonialism and apartheid, these organisations mostly operate under the principle of equality among states. Whereas this has contributed to forging a strong symbolism of African unity, the consensual model has unfortunately not been able to endow African regional organisations with the necessary persuasive and coercive capacity it needs to enforce the huge body of norms they produce. This article argues that club governance could be a solution. It advocates the formation of an informal club where African major powers will gather to exchange views on continental and global issues.

Ce papier porte sur le coup d'Etat militaire intervenu en Guinee le 23 decembre 2008 a la sui... more Ce papier porte sur le coup d'Etat militaire intervenu en Guinee le 23 decembre 2008 a la suite de la mort du President Lansana Conte, au pouvoir depuis avril 1984, et le processus de transition qu'il a declenche. Il tente d'expliquer les differences d'appreciation initiale des populations guineennes, d'un cote, et de la communaute internationale, de l'autre, quant a ce coup de force. Il porte egalement une reflexion sur ce que certains ont appele la recrudescence des coups de force en Afrique et identifie des defis et certaines mesures susceptibles d'eclairer la transition en Guinee. La question n'etant pas limitee a la Guinee, le papier fournit des elements de reflexion afin que l'UA et les organisations sous-regionales puissent, a l'avenir, minimiser le risque de coup d'Etat sur le continent.

International interventions in Chad, such as the European Eufor Chad, must address structural pro... more International interventions in Chad, such as the European Eufor Chad, must address structural problems linked to governance and democracy by helping Chadian political actors to reform the country’s social contract instead of focusing on preserving stability and, thus, becoming part of the problem and not of the solution. At the beginning of February 2008 a coalition of armed movements launched an attack on the Chadian capital N’Djamena from their Sudanese base and almost toppled the government of President Deby. The spectacular rebel offensive did not only take the Chadian government by surprise but also put the French military under enormous pressure. Their initial hesitation to support the Chadian army according to bilateral military agreements between the two countries was due to their concern not to jeopardise the neutrality of the Eufor, the European Force that, by that time, was supposed to be deployed in eastern Chad and the Central African Republic. Finally, backed by strong...

... Their contributions were invaluable. We would also like to thank Sir Derek Plumbly, Mr Michae... more ... Their contributions were invaluable. We would also like to thank Sir Derek Plumbly, Mr Michael O´Neill, Mr Muin Shreim, Ambassador Graham Maitland and Ms Rut ... With gratitude Paula Cristina Roque and Paul-Simon Handy Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria ...

Accelerated processes of globalisation-in the form of structural adjustment plans and of democrat... more Accelerated processes of globalisation-in the form of structural adjustment plans and of democratisation processes-have seriously shaken the fragile foundations of African countries. These processes have contributed o verall to widening the geographical scope of zones of limited statehood where the traditional monopoly of violence is challenged by multiple oligopolies of violence. During the 90s, this phenomenon was at best considered as a regionally limited problem with less significance for international stability. This however changed dramatically with the terrorist attacks in New York in 2001. The resulting US national security strategy, quickly followed by the EU, considered failed states as a major national security problem due to the fact that the attacks were partly planned in Afghanistan, a then collapsed state. The present paper is an attempt to shed a clarifying light on the phenomenon of fragile statehood as well as to explore ways of international intervention. Growing on a Weberian conception of the modern state, it identifies three core functions (monopoly of violence, provision of public goods and political order), which should all be fulfilled by well functioning states. The different stages of state fragility in Africa are then defined by the failing capacity of states to fulfil one or all of these functions. Amidst the whole range of arguments about the reasons of this situation, the paper identifies the deeply rooted neopatrimonial understanding of politics as the most salient explaining variable. The paper concludes by pointing to the fact that international attempts to prevent and to stop state failure as well as to rebuild collapsed states are still at an embryonic stage. Given the multidimensional and complex nature of the problem, an integrated approach among the donor countries will be necessary, which comprises coherent analysis and strategies. The concept of structural stability, formulated by the OECD and the EU still needs to be clarified and translated into concrete policy strategies.

African Security Review, 2010

Abstract The growing importance of regional economic communities and the African Union as African... more Abstract The growing importance of regional economic communities and the African Union as African supranational organisations aimed at promoting and implementing common norms and principles has transformed the landscape of African governance. Based on a consensus model that was previously geared towards the fight against colonialism and apartheid, these organisations mostly operate under the principle of equality among states. Whereas this has contributed to forging a strong symbolism of African unity, the consensual model has unfortunately not been able to endow African regional organisations with the necessary persuasive and coercive capacity it needs to enforce the huge body of norms they produce. This article argues that club governance could be a solution. It advocates the formation of an informal club where African major powers will gather to exchange views on continental and global issues.

African Security Review, 2013

This article examines the state of the art of early warning in Africa. It looks at the definition... more This article examines the state of the art of early warning in Africa. It looks at the definitions of early warning, considers the historical evolution of conflict early warning systems, and takes a critical look at the debate about the link or the gap between early warning and early action. To this end, it tries to answer some important questions, particularly in relation to the purpose of early warning systems (EWSs) and their limitations so as to ensure that EWSs and early warning analysts are taken for what they are, and not criticised for what they are not or cannot do. In essence, it underscores the fact that the field of conflict early warning is not a fortune-telling business; an industry aimed at predicting socio-political events. The field and its different actors and mechanisms typically serve various purposes and rely on networks and open sources as well as cooperation. At times, some actions are indeed taken and potential conflicts prevented, but these actions do not come to the attention of outside observers precisely because nothing happened. It acknowledges, however, that the field can still learn from past experiences and improve on its delivery, at the level of both analysis and the ensuing action.

African Security Review, 2010

Following the end of a successful inclusive political dialogue and the adherence to peace process... more Following the end of a successful inclusive political dialogue and the adherence to peace processes by the majority of military opposition groups in the Central African Republic, elections have been set up for 2010. Constitutionally, these elections must be held before April 2010 and similarly, the mandate of sitting President François Bozizé comes to an end in June 2010. As

Routledge eBooks, Dec 18, 2007

Institute for Security Studies Papers, Aug 1, 2009

Ce papier porte sur le coup d'Etat militaire intervenu en Guinee le 23 decembre 2008 a la sui... more Ce papier porte sur le coup d'Etat militaire intervenu en Guinee le 23 decembre 2008 a la suite de la mort du President Lansana Conte, au pouvoir depuis avril 1984, et le processus de transition qu'il a declenche. Il tente d'expliquer les differences d'appreciation initiale des populations guineennes, d'un cote, et de la communaute internationale, de l'autre, quant a ce coup de force. Il porte egalement une reflexion sur ce que certains ont appele la recrudescence des coups de force en Afrique et identifie des defis et certaines mesures susceptibles d'eclairer la transition en Guinee. La question n'etant pas limitee a la Guinee, le papier fournit des elements de reflexion afin que l'UA et les organisations sous-regionales puissent, a l'avenir, minimiser le risque de coup d'Etat sur le continent.

African Security Review, Mar 1, 2010

Following the end of a successful inclusive political dialogue and the adherence to peace process... more Following the end of a successful inclusive political dialogue and the adherence to peace processes by the majority of military opposition groups in the Central African Republic, elections have been set up for 2010. Constitutionally, these elections must be held before April 2010 and similarly, the mandate of sitting President François Bozizé comes to an end in June 2010. As

African Security Review, Jun 1, 2013

This article examines the state of the art of early warning in Africa. It looks at the definition... more This article examines the state of the art of early warning in Africa. It looks at the definitions of early warning, considers the historical evolution of conflict early warning systems, and takes a critical look at the debate about the link or the gap between early warning and early action. To this end, it tries to answer some important questions, particularly in relation to the purpose of early warning systems (EWSs) and their limitations so as to ensure that EWSs and early warning analysts are taken for what they are, and not criticised for what they are not or cannot do. In essence, it underscores the fact that the field of conflict early warning is not a fortune-telling business; an industry aimed at predicting socio-political events. The field and its different actors and mechanisms typically serve various purposes and rely on networks and open sources as well as cooperation. At times, some actions are indeed taken and potential conflicts prevented, but these actions do not come to the attention of outside observers precisely because nothing happened. It acknowledges, however, that the field can still learn from past experiences and improve on its delivery, at the level of both analysis and the ensuing action.

African Security Review, Mar 1, 2012

The dramatic events of the Arab Spring have changed the political landscape in Africa and showed ... more The dramatic events of the Arab Spring have changed the political landscape in Africa and showed up both the need for and the shortcomings of the African Union. The author looks at the impact of the past year on security issues across Africa.

International interventions in Chad, such as the European Eufor Chad, must address structural pro... more International interventions in Chad, such as the European Eufor Chad, must address structural problems linked to governance and democracy by helping Chadian political actors to reform the country's social contract instead of focusing on preserving stability and, thus, becoming part of the problem and not of the solution.

African Security Review, 2005

Extracted from text ... AFRICA WATCH THE DYNASTIC SUCCESSION IN TOGO Continental and regional imp... more Extracted from text ... AFRICA WATCH THE DYNASTIC SUCCESSION IN TOGO Continental and regional implications PAUL SIMON HANDY Introduction The presidential poll that took place in Togo on 24 April 2005 was certainly not a model of transparency. On the contrary, it consecrated a dynastic succession and deepened the societal divide in a country that has suffered 38 years of autocratic rule. The role played by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the African Union (AU) in Togo has raised a series of questions which suggest the limitations of a wholly African management system for governments in peril. ..

African Studies Companion Online

African Security Review, Sep 1, 2010

Abstract The growing importance of regional economic communities and the African Union as African... more Abstract The growing importance of regional economic communities and the African Union as African supranational organisations aimed at promoting and implementing common norms and principles has transformed the landscape of African governance. Based on a consensus model that was previously geared towards the fight against colonialism and apartheid, these organisations mostly operate under the principle of equality among states. Whereas this has contributed to forging a strong symbolism of African unity, the consensual model has unfortunately not been able to endow African regional organisations with the necessary persuasive and coercive capacity it needs to enforce the huge body of norms they produce. This article argues that club governance could be a solution. It advocates the formation of an informal club where African major powers will gather to exchange views on continental and global issues.

Ce papier porte sur le coup d'Etat militaire intervenu en Guinee le 23 decembre 2008 a la sui... more Ce papier porte sur le coup d'Etat militaire intervenu en Guinee le 23 decembre 2008 a la suite de la mort du President Lansana Conte, au pouvoir depuis avril 1984, et le processus de transition qu'il a declenche. Il tente d'expliquer les differences d'appreciation initiale des populations guineennes, d'un cote, et de la communaute internationale, de l'autre, quant a ce coup de force. Il porte egalement une reflexion sur ce que certains ont appele la recrudescence des coups de force en Afrique et identifie des defis et certaines mesures susceptibles d'eclairer la transition en Guinee. La question n'etant pas limitee a la Guinee, le papier fournit des elements de reflexion afin que l'UA et les organisations sous-regionales puissent, a l'avenir, minimiser le risque de coup d'Etat sur le continent.

International interventions in Chad, such as the European Eufor Chad, must address structural pro... more International interventions in Chad, such as the European Eufor Chad, must address structural problems linked to governance and democracy by helping Chadian political actors to reform the country’s social contract instead of focusing on preserving stability and, thus, becoming part of the problem and not of the solution. At the beginning of February 2008 a coalition of armed movements launched an attack on the Chadian capital N’Djamena from their Sudanese base and almost toppled the government of President Deby. The spectacular rebel offensive did not only take the Chadian government by surprise but also put the French military under enormous pressure. Their initial hesitation to support the Chadian army according to bilateral military agreements between the two countries was due to their concern not to jeopardise the neutrality of the Eufor, the European Force that, by that time, was supposed to be deployed in eastern Chad and the Central African Republic. Finally, backed by strong...

... Their contributions were invaluable. We would also like to thank Sir Derek Plumbly, Mr Michae... more ... Their contributions were invaluable. We would also like to thank Sir Derek Plumbly, Mr Michael O´Neill, Mr Muin Shreim, Ambassador Graham Maitland and Ms Rut ... With gratitude Paula Cristina Roque and Paul-Simon Handy Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria ...

Accelerated processes of globalisation-in the form of structural adjustment plans and of democrat... more Accelerated processes of globalisation-in the form of structural adjustment plans and of democratisation processes-have seriously shaken the fragile foundations of African countries. These processes have contributed o verall to widening the geographical scope of zones of limited statehood where the traditional monopoly of violence is challenged by multiple oligopolies of violence. During the 90s, this phenomenon was at best considered as a regionally limited problem with less significance for international stability. This however changed dramatically with the terrorist attacks in New York in 2001. The resulting US national security strategy, quickly followed by the EU, considered failed states as a major national security problem due to the fact that the attacks were partly planned in Afghanistan, a then collapsed state. The present paper is an attempt to shed a clarifying light on the phenomenon of fragile statehood as well as to explore ways of international intervention. Growing on a Weberian conception of the modern state, it identifies three core functions (monopoly of violence, provision of public goods and political order), which should all be fulfilled by well functioning states. The different stages of state fragility in Africa are then defined by the failing capacity of states to fulfil one or all of these functions. Amidst the whole range of arguments about the reasons of this situation, the paper identifies the deeply rooted neopatrimonial understanding of politics as the most salient explaining variable. The paper concludes by pointing to the fact that international attempts to prevent and to stop state failure as well as to rebuild collapsed states are still at an embryonic stage. Given the multidimensional and complex nature of the problem, an integrated approach among the donor countries will be necessary, which comprises coherent analysis and strategies. The concept of structural stability, formulated by the OECD and the EU still needs to be clarified and translated into concrete policy strategies.

African Security Review, 2010

Abstract The growing importance of regional economic communities and the African Union as African... more Abstract The growing importance of regional economic communities and the African Union as African supranational organisations aimed at promoting and implementing common norms and principles has transformed the landscape of African governance. Based on a consensus model that was previously geared towards the fight against colonialism and apartheid, these organisations mostly operate under the principle of equality among states. Whereas this has contributed to forging a strong symbolism of African unity, the consensual model has unfortunately not been able to endow African regional organisations with the necessary persuasive and coercive capacity it needs to enforce the huge body of norms they produce. This article argues that club governance could be a solution. It advocates the formation of an informal club where African major powers will gather to exchange views on continental and global issues.

African Security Review, 2013

This article examines the state of the art of early warning in Africa. It looks at the definition... more This article examines the state of the art of early warning in Africa. It looks at the definitions of early warning, considers the historical evolution of conflict early warning systems, and takes a critical look at the debate about the link or the gap between early warning and early action. To this end, it tries to answer some important questions, particularly in relation to the purpose of early warning systems (EWSs) and their limitations so as to ensure that EWSs and early warning analysts are taken for what they are, and not criticised for what they are not or cannot do. In essence, it underscores the fact that the field of conflict early warning is not a fortune-telling business; an industry aimed at predicting socio-political events. The field and its different actors and mechanisms typically serve various purposes and rely on networks and open sources as well as cooperation. At times, some actions are indeed taken and potential conflicts prevented, but these actions do not come to the attention of outside observers precisely because nothing happened. It acknowledges, however, that the field can still learn from past experiences and improve on its delivery, at the level of both analysis and the ensuing action.

African Security Review, 2010

Following the end of a successful inclusive political dialogue and the adherence to peace process... more Following the end of a successful inclusive political dialogue and the adherence to peace processes by the majority of military opposition groups in the Central African Republic, elections have been set up for 2010. Constitutionally, these elections must be held before April 2010 and similarly, the mandate of sitting President François Bozizé comes to an end in June 2010. As