Hans-Helmut Kotz - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Hans-Helmut Kotz

Credit and Capital Markets - Kredit und Kapital

For more than a decade now, the potential and frequently simply alleged relative flaws in public ... more For more than a decade now, the potential and frequently simply alleged relative flaws in public sector ± collective ± pension schemes have been exposed in the public debate. The core case against pay-as-you-go systems being that, in order to cope with population aging, their underlying parameters ± contribution rates/payroll taxes, replacement ratio or normal retirement age ± have to be altered. This implies, evidently, a reduced expected income stream for future retirees. Concurrently, as an apparently logical corollary, these parametric adjustments entail an underperformance in terms of expected returns compared to funded systems. The latter are frequently equated with individual or privatized accounts. However, this relative underperformance is not so self-evident as it appears at first blush. Nonetheless, it is a general perception in many OECD countries after more than a decade of debates and reforms. 2 In any case, individuals are ever more called upon to take care of their own affairs. That is, they are assumed to significantly provide on their own Kredit und Kapital 2/2007 Kredit und Kapital, 40. Jahrgang, Heft 2, Seiten 175±187 Policy Issues 1 The authors would like to express their gratitude to Frank Welfens for very able support. Errors, however, are very much our own. 2 While this is not the topic of our paper, funded systems as well pay-as-you go systems are essentially options, that is, contingent claims on an output still to be produced. The return of a pay-as-you go system should be roughly equivalent to the growth in employment plus the annualized gains in real wages, i. e., for given factor shares, to GDP growth. A funded system, on the other hand, should produce returns, gross of fees, roughly in line with real interest rates, i. e. approximately the marginal efficiency of capital, which, again in equilibrium, cannot deviate too much from GDP growth. Paul Samuelson has been the first in 1958 to emphasize this equivalence. Pay-as-you go system will, however, as an inexorable consequence of the first generation of retirees receiving benefits far in excess of contributions, show lower returns. But then, net returns on privatized accounts, after management fees, sales expenses etc., are substantially below gross returns (see for example Diamond (1996)).

SAFE White Paper Series, 2021

With the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in full swing, banks face a challenging environment... more With the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in full swing, banks face a challenging environment. They will need to address disappointing results and adverse balance sheet restatements, the intensity of which depends on the evolution of the euro area economies. At the same time, vulnerable banks reinforce real economy deficiencies. The contribution of this paper is to provide a comparative assessment of the various policy responses to address a looming banking crisis. Such a crisis will fully materialize when non-performing assets drag down banks simultaneously, raising the specter of a fullblown systemic crisis. The policy responses available range from forbearance, recapitalization (with public or private resources), asset separation (bad banks, at national or EU level), to debt conversion schemes. We evaluate these responses according to a set of five criteria that define the efficacy of each. These responses are not mutually exclusive, in practice, as they have never been. They may also go hand in hand with other restructuring initiatives, including potential consolidation in the banking sector. Although we do not make a specific recommendation, we provide a framework for policymakers to guide them in their decision making. * SAFE Policy Letters represent the authors' personal opinion and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, or any other institution. We want to thank Johannes Kasinger for discussions and help in the writing process, and Carl-Georg Luft of the SAFE Policy Center Team for excellent research assistance.

France-Allemagne : Cultures monétaires et budgétaires, 2015

nétaire forgée dans les années qui suivent la Libération entrait en résonance avec la culture pol... more nétaire forgée dans les années qui suivent la Libération entrait en résonance avec la culture politique nationale de la Reconstruction, largement répandue dans l'ensemble de la population française parce qu'assise sur les « réformes de structures » issues du programme de la Résistance (nationalisations, Sécurité sociale, Plan…) et identifiée à la Grande Croissance des années 1950-début des années 1970, autant la culture de stabilité monétaire tarde à trouver ses assises dans l'ensemble de la Nation.

This paper analyses the evolution of the safety and soundness of the European banking sector duri... more This paper analyses the evolution of the safety and soundness of the European banking sector during the various stages of the Basel process of capital regulation. In the first part we document the evolution of various measures of systemic risk as the Basel process unfolds. Most strikingly, we find that the exposure to systemic risk as measured by SRISK has been steeply rising for the highest quintile, moderately rising for the second quintile and remaining roughly stationary for the remaining three quintiles of listed European banks. This observation suggests that the Basel process has succeeded in containing systemic risk for the majority of European banks but not for the largest institutions. In the second part we analyse the drivers of systemic risk. We find compelling evidence that the increase in exposure to systemic risk (SRISK) is intimately tied to the implementation of internal models for determining credit risk as well as market risk. Based on this evidence, the sub-prime ...

Capital Market Reform in Asia: Towards Developed and Integrated Markets in Times of Change

The eurozone remains in a deep, largely macro-economic crisis. A robust global economy and fallin... more The eurozone remains in a deep, largely macro-economic crisis. A robust global economy and falling oil prices have supported Europe´s economy for some time, but by now it is clear that the eurozone will only be able to pull itself out of this crisis by means of more decisive action. One response, the recent easing of monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB), has, for the most part, been sharply and onesidedly criticised in Germany. Monetary policy inaction seems to be the preferred option of many in Germany. The authors discuss the following question: What would happen if the ECB failed to respond to the excessively low inflation and the weak economy? And what economic policy would be suitable under the current circumstances, if not monetary policy?

Journal of International Economics, 2020

This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, 2018

Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.

France-Allemagne : Cultures monétaires et budgétaires, 2015

nétaire forgée dans les années qui suivent la Libération entrait en résonance avec la culture pol... more nétaire forgée dans les années qui suivent la Libération entrait en résonance avec la culture politique nationale de la Reconstruction, largement répandue dans l'ensemble de la population française parce qu'assise sur les « réformes de structures » issues du programme de la Résistance (nationalisations, Sécurité sociale, Plan…) et identifiée à la Grande Croissance des années 1950-début des années 1970, autant la culture de stabilité monétaire tarde à trouver ses assises dans l'ensemble de la Nation.

Wirtschaftsdienst, 2008

Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.

Der Ökonom als Politiker, 2003

Zeitschrift für Bankrecht und Bankwirtschaft, 2012

Revue D Economie Financiere, 1994

Pohl Karl-Otto, Kotz Hans-Helmut. Entretien avec Karl-Otto Pohl. In: Revue d'economie financi... more Pohl Karl-Otto, Kotz Hans-Helmut. Entretien avec Karl-Otto Pohl. In: Revue d'economie financiere. Hors-serie, 1994. Bretton Woods : melanges pour un cinquantenaire. pp. 121-123.

Beihefte zu Kredit und Kapital, 2000

Revue d'économie financière, 1995

Kotz Hans-Helmut, Mérieux Antoine, Marchand Christophe. Les craintes et espoirs des bâtisseurs de... more Kotz Hans-Helmut, Mérieux Antoine, Marchand Christophe. Les craintes et espoirs des bâtisseurs de l'UEM et le Cycle allemand. In: Revue d'économie financière, n°35, 1995. La tarification des services bancaires. pp. 317-321

Beihefte zu Kredit und Kapital, 1998

50 Years of EU Economic Dynamics

“The more nearly perfect a market is, the stronger is the tendency for the same price to be paid ... more “The more nearly perfect a market is, the stronger is the tendency for the same price to be paid for the same thing at the same time in all parts of the market…” Marshall, Principles, 1920

Credit and Capital Markets - Kredit und Kapital

For more than a decade now, the potential and frequently simply alleged relative flaws in public ... more For more than a decade now, the potential and frequently simply alleged relative flaws in public sector ± collective ± pension schemes have been exposed in the public debate. The core case against pay-as-you-go systems being that, in order to cope with population aging, their underlying parameters ± contribution rates/payroll taxes, replacement ratio or normal retirement age ± have to be altered. This implies, evidently, a reduced expected income stream for future retirees. Concurrently, as an apparently logical corollary, these parametric adjustments entail an underperformance in terms of expected returns compared to funded systems. The latter are frequently equated with individual or privatized accounts. However, this relative underperformance is not so self-evident as it appears at first blush. Nonetheless, it is a general perception in many OECD countries after more than a decade of debates and reforms. 2 In any case, individuals are ever more called upon to take care of their own affairs. That is, they are assumed to significantly provide on their own Kredit und Kapital 2/2007 Kredit und Kapital, 40. Jahrgang, Heft 2, Seiten 175±187 Policy Issues 1 The authors would like to express their gratitude to Frank Welfens for very able support. Errors, however, are very much our own. 2 While this is not the topic of our paper, funded systems as well pay-as-you go systems are essentially options, that is, contingent claims on an output still to be produced. The return of a pay-as-you go system should be roughly equivalent to the growth in employment plus the annualized gains in real wages, i. e., for given factor shares, to GDP growth. A funded system, on the other hand, should produce returns, gross of fees, roughly in line with real interest rates, i. e. approximately the marginal efficiency of capital, which, again in equilibrium, cannot deviate too much from GDP growth. Paul Samuelson has been the first in 1958 to emphasize this equivalence. Pay-as-you go system will, however, as an inexorable consequence of the first generation of retirees receiving benefits far in excess of contributions, show lower returns. But then, net returns on privatized accounts, after management fees, sales expenses etc., are substantially below gross returns (see for example Diamond (1996)).

SAFE White Paper Series, 2021

With the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in full swing, banks face a challenging environment... more With the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in full swing, banks face a challenging environment. They will need to address disappointing results and adverse balance sheet restatements, the intensity of which depends on the evolution of the euro area economies. At the same time, vulnerable banks reinforce real economy deficiencies. The contribution of this paper is to provide a comparative assessment of the various policy responses to address a looming banking crisis. Such a crisis will fully materialize when non-performing assets drag down banks simultaneously, raising the specter of a fullblown systemic crisis. The policy responses available range from forbearance, recapitalization (with public or private resources), asset separation (bad banks, at national or EU level), to debt conversion schemes. We evaluate these responses according to a set of five criteria that define the efficacy of each. These responses are not mutually exclusive, in practice, as they have never been. They may also go hand in hand with other restructuring initiatives, including potential consolidation in the banking sector. Although we do not make a specific recommendation, we provide a framework for policymakers to guide them in their decision making. * SAFE Policy Letters represent the authors' personal opinion and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, or any other institution. We want to thank Johannes Kasinger for discussions and help in the writing process, and Carl-Georg Luft of the SAFE Policy Center Team for excellent research assistance.

France-Allemagne : Cultures monétaires et budgétaires, 2015

nétaire forgée dans les années qui suivent la Libération entrait en résonance avec la culture pol... more nétaire forgée dans les années qui suivent la Libération entrait en résonance avec la culture politique nationale de la Reconstruction, largement répandue dans l'ensemble de la population française parce qu'assise sur les « réformes de structures » issues du programme de la Résistance (nationalisations, Sécurité sociale, Plan…) et identifiée à la Grande Croissance des années 1950-début des années 1970, autant la culture de stabilité monétaire tarde à trouver ses assises dans l'ensemble de la Nation.

This paper analyses the evolution of the safety and soundness of the European banking sector duri... more This paper analyses the evolution of the safety and soundness of the European banking sector during the various stages of the Basel process of capital regulation. In the first part we document the evolution of various measures of systemic risk as the Basel process unfolds. Most strikingly, we find that the exposure to systemic risk as measured by SRISK has been steeply rising for the highest quintile, moderately rising for the second quintile and remaining roughly stationary for the remaining three quintiles of listed European banks. This observation suggests that the Basel process has succeeded in containing systemic risk for the majority of European banks but not for the largest institutions. In the second part we analyse the drivers of systemic risk. We find compelling evidence that the increase in exposure to systemic risk (SRISK) is intimately tied to the implementation of internal models for determining credit risk as well as market risk. Based on this evidence, the sub-prime ...

Capital Market Reform in Asia: Towards Developed and Integrated Markets in Times of Change

The eurozone remains in a deep, largely macro-economic crisis. A robust global economy and fallin... more The eurozone remains in a deep, largely macro-economic crisis. A robust global economy and falling oil prices have supported Europe´s economy for some time, but by now it is clear that the eurozone will only be able to pull itself out of this crisis by means of more decisive action. One response, the recent easing of monetary policy by the European Central Bank (ECB), has, for the most part, been sharply and onesidedly criticised in Germany. Monetary policy inaction seems to be the preferred option of many in Germany. The authors discuss the following question: What would happen if the ECB failed to respond to the excessively low inflation and the weak economy? And what economic policy would be suitable under the current circumstances, if not monetary policy?

Journal of International Economics, 2020

This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the ad... more This is a PDF file of an article that has undergone enhancements after acceptance, such as the addition of a cover page and metadata, and formatting for readability, but it is not yet the definitive version of record. This version will undergo additional copyediting, typesetting and review before it is published in its final form, but we are providing this version to give early visibility of the article. Please note that, during the production process, errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain.

Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung, 2018

Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.

France-Allemagne : Cultures monétaires et budgétaires, 2015

nétaire forgée dans les années qui suivent la Libération entrait en résonance avec la culture pol... more nétaire forgée dans les années qui suivent la Libération entrait en résonance avec la culture politique nationale de la Reconstruction, largement répandue dans l'ensemble de la population française parce qu'assise sur les « réformes de structures » issues du programme de la Résistance (nationalisations, Sécurité sociale, Plan…) et identifiée à la Grande Croissance des années 1950-début des années 1970, autant la culture de stabilité monétaire tarde à trouver ses assises dans l'ensemble de la Nation.

Wirtschaftsdienst, 2008

Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch ge... more Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your personal and scholarly purposes. You are not to copy documents for public or commercial purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. If the documents have been made available under an Open Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence.

Der Ökonom als Politiker, 2003

Zeitschrift für Bankrecht und Bankwirtschaft, 2012

Revue D Economie Financiere, 1994

Pohl Karl-Otto, Kotz Hans-Helmut. Entretien avec Karl-Otto Pohl. In: Revue d'economie financi... more Pohl Karl-Otto, Kotz Hans-Helmut. Entretien avec Karl-Otto Pohl. In: Revue d'economie financiere. Hors-serie, 1994. Bretton Woods : melanges pour un cinquantenaire. pp. 121-123.

Beihefte zu Kredit und Kapital, 2000

Revue d'économie financière, 1995

Kotz Hans-Helmut, Mérieux Antoine, Marchand Christophe. Les craintes et espoirs des bâtisseurs de... more Kotz Hans-Helmut, Mérieux Antoine, Marchand Christophe. Les craintes et espoirs des bâtisseurs de l'UEM et le Cycle allemand. In: Revue d'économie financière, n°35, 1995. La tarification des services bancaires. pp. 317-321

Beihefte zu Kredit und Kapital, 1998

50 Years of EU Economic Dynamics

“The more nearly perfect a market is, the stronger is the tendency for the same price to be paid ... more “The more nearly perfect a market is, the stronger is the tendency for the same price to be paid for the same thing at the same time in all parts of the market…” Marshall, Principles, 1920