Harold Ngalawa - Academia.edu (original) (raw)

Papers by Harold Ngalawa

Journal of Economic Integration

This study analyzes the evolution of Africa's degree of economic integration with China from ... more This study analyzes the evolution of Africa's degree of economic integration with China from 1993 to 2019. The study period encompasses a number of China-Africa bilateral economic treaties, which the literature claims are prolific and have significantly strengthened Africa's degree of economic integration with China. We develop a theoretical argument that, if this assertion holds, the integration indicator must reflect a long-run upward trend that is less obstructed by noise. To validate this argument, we use a wavelet approach and find no evidence necessitating failure to reject the null hypothesis of no periodicity, suggesting that the integration indicator was statistically noisy over the study period. This finding suggests that interpreting the evolution of China-Africa economic integration primarily through bilateral economic pacts can be deceptive. The interpretation should instead be exploratory in nature to unpack some hidden motivations associated with this integrat...

Journal of Economic and Financial Sciences

Orientation: Inflation targeting requires prudent fiscal policy to achieve desired results.Motiva... more Orientation: Inflation targeting requires prudent fiscal policy to achieve desired results.Motivation for the study: Since the 2007–2008 financial crisis, fiscal authorities in South Africa have implemented an aggressive fiscal stimulus that has resulted in an acceleration of public debt, accompanied by a sustained government deficit. At the same time, the economy has continued to struggle with achieving significant growth to assist the government with its ever-growing expenditure obligations.Research Purpose: This study set out to investigate the relationship between inflation dynamics and the stance of fiscal policy, with a focus on public debt, in South Africa.Method: This study employs a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (NKDSGE) model with financial frictions calibrated on South African data.Main Findings: The results of this study showed that when fiscal authorities put a relatively small weight on the control of public debt, inflation significantly increase...

Journal of Life Economics, Nov 14, 2022

Australian Economic Papers, 2021

This paper models the volatility of South Africa’s exchange rate amidst global shocks. Using the ... more This paper models the volatility of South Africa’s exchange rate amidst global shocks. Using the symmetric GARCH (p,q) and asymmetric EGARCH (p,q) and the theoretical model of Omolo (2014), it is established that the asymmetric EGARCH (p,q) model outperforms the symmetric GARCH (p,q) model and can be recommended to policymakers in South Africa. The study results show that South Africa’s exchange rates are significantly affected by global shocks. It is, therefore, recommended that the South Africa’s government should consider the impact of global shocks when formulating and implementing economic policies, especially exchange rates policies.

Montenegrin Journal of Economics

Abstract: Coastal and Marine Tourism (CMT), as part of the oceans economy, offers significant dev... more Abstract: Coastal and Marine Tourism (CMT), as part of the oceans economy, offers significant development opportunities that can contribute to job creation and sustainability. However, there are limited national and international best practices to assess the economic impacts of CMT. The aim of this study was to reflect on experiences from a piloting exercise that was undertaken to inform the development of a framework to assess the economic contribution of CMT to South Africa’s tourism sector. Previous studies, focus on contextualising Operation Phakisa, examining CMT globally and in South Africa, and highlighting economic contributions identified in selected CMT case studies (including the economic models generally used). Drawing on the review of existing studies as well as discussions with key economic experts, a framework for a pilot study to assess the economic impacts of CMT in South Africa was developed. Supply (coastal and marine tourism business owners, accommodation establi...

African Journal of Governance & Development, Oct 1, 2020

British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade, 2017

This study applied recently developed Panel Structural Vector Autoregressives (P-SVAR) estimating... more This study applied recently developed Panel Structural Vector Autoregressives (P-SVAR) estimating technique to empirically assess the transmission processes of oil price shocks and how it impacts economic performance within the monetary framework of the Africa’s net oil exporting economies. The study considered, among other variables; inflation, money supply, bank rate, exchange rate, gross domestic product, unemployment and oil price shocks which is treated as exogenous while other variables as endogenous variables. The period of the study covered 1980- 2015. The analysis of the data revealed that there were significant responses to oil price shocks during this period. The result of the study showed that oil price shocks have large impact on the economic performance of Africa’s oil exporting countries and also that transmission of oil price ensues monetary medium. Hence, the study suggests that strong monetary control measure should be put in place whenever positive shocks in oil i...

Studies in Economics and Econometrics

Abstract hile deposit insurance aimed at minimising the risk of banking instability has been adop... more Abstract hile deposit insurance aimed at minimising the risk of banking instability has been adopted in the regulatory structures of a large number of middle to high income countries and in only a few low income countries, most cases of banking instability have been recorded in the low income countries. Does the absence of deposit insurance explain the high prevalence of banking instability in low income countries relative to their high income counterparts? Or, are low income countries just prone to banking instability more than high income countries? This study sets out to answer these and other questions. Using an empirical framework that distinguishes bank runs and insolvency of banks as identifiers of banking instability, the study establishes that deposit insurance per se has no bearing on banking fragility. The study further finds very weak evidence that low income countries are vulnerable to banking instability more than high income countries.

South African Journal of Economics, 2008

Economic Research Southern Africa (ERSA) is a research programme funded by the National

International journal of economics and finance, 2016

This paper investigates the long run and short run dynamics between industrial production and fac... more This paper investigates the long run and short run dynamics between industrial production and factors affecting production in the Emerging Market Economies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Using the Chudik and Pesaran (2013) P-ARDL model and monthly data from 1994:01 – 2013:12, the study finds evidence of a cointegrating relationship between industrial production and selected variables. It is further observed that capital, labour, per capita income and exports have a positive long run impact on industrial production in the BRICS. A currency appreciation (an increase in the exchange rate), however, has a negative impact on industrial production. In the short run, it is found that imports, exports, exchange rates, labour, capital and per capita income significantly affect industrial production.

This paper sets out to investigate the process through which monetary policy affects economic act... more This paper sets out to investigate the process through which monetary policy affects economic activity in Malawi. Using innovation accounting in a structural vector autoregressive model, it is established that monetary authorities in Malawi employ hybrid operating procedures and pursue both price stability and high growth and employment objectives. Two operating targets of monetary policy are identified, viz., bank rate and reserve money, and it is demonstrated that the former is a more effective measure of monetary policy than the latter. The study also illustrates that bank lending, exchange rates and aggregate money supply contain important additional information in the transmission process of monetary policy shocks in Malawi. Furthermore, it is shown that the floatation of the Malawi Kwacha in February 1994 had considerable effects on the country’s monetary transmission process. In the post-1994 period, the role of exchange rates became more conspicuous than before although its ...