Holger Hoff - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Holger Hoff
ABSTRACT Scarcity often has its roots in water shortage, and it is in the arid and semiarid regio... more ABSTRACT Scarcity often has its roots in water shortage, and it is in the arid and semiarid regions affected by droughts and wide climate variability, combined with population growth and economic development, that the problems of water scarcity are most acute. The Merguellil watershed, situated in the center of Tunisia, represents exactly this state of fact where the agriculture is the main consumer with about 80% of the total water resources because of the continuous increase and intensification of irrigated area. The surface water can satisfy a very low portion of this demand; consequently, the groundwater is overexploited. The irrigation sector is divided into public and private. While the public irrigated areas are well known, the private ones are not sufficiently controlled mainly the water volumes pumped from the aquifer. Therefore, a sustainable management of all available water resources and meeting as much as possible all water demands, is crucial. To analyze the actual and future water balance of the Merguellil watershed, and to identify critical trends and thresholds and effective solutions, a WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning system) application has been developed. It utilizes a constrained optimization algorithm to allocate water among competing demands in a basin. The year 2009 is considered as the reference one which represents the basic definition of the water system as it currently exists, and forms the foundation of all scenarios analysis. Three scenarios were compared to the reference one. The first combines between the reduction of 10% in precipitation, as it is forseen by the regional climate model RCA (driven by ECHAM5) that provides statistic data of precipitation until 2050, and the increase of 2% per year in irrigated area in the kairouan plain deduced from the land use maps dating from 1991/1992 to 2009/2010 obtained by multi dates remote sensing data. The second scenario is the application of a deficit irrigation that respects the yield reduction related to each existing crop. The third one tests the effect of the three hypotheses together on the water resources: reduction in precipitation, increase in irrigated area and deficit irrigation. Merguellil WEAP model demonstrates how different management options to face water shortage can be evaluated and compared for future climate, land use change and technology development scenarios.
Berg Encyclopedia of World Dress and Fashion, 2010
For full bibliographic references please refer to the complete report. Nothing herein shall const... more For full bibliographic references please refer to the complete report. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.
Routledge eBooks, Dec 14, 2017
Demand for natural resources has grown rapidly for decades, and is expected to continue growing. ... more Demand for natural resources has grown rapidly for decades, and is expected to continue growing. These trends lead to repercussions, risks, and threats for humans and ecosystems at different scales. The challenges of sustainable resource management and governance are on numerous agendas, ranging from the G7 and G20 summits to UNEP's International Resource Panel, World Economic Forum, SDG implementation, and a growing community of international scholars. Research highlights the importance of accounting for the interdependencies of resource use and sustainability goals such as eliminating hunger, mitigating climate change, and expanding energy access. There is a need to understand interdependencies and the feasibility of more integrated approaches. Debate is often framed in terms of a "nexus" between water, energy, and food (sometimes including other resources). 1 The main aim of this handbook is to come to grips with what the nexus 2 is about, provide a reference textbook with an overview, and a survey on emerging and cutting-edge research, and application of the concept. This handbook enables readers to understand (Part I), measure (Part II), assess and model (Part III), compare political economies (Part IV), learn from applications (Part V), and upscale solutions (Part VI). The handbook's six parts and 32 chapters are carefully organized around these aims. As a whole, the handbook seeks to combine analytical rigor with attempts to be transformativei.e. shaping transformations towards sustainabilityin realms of research and knowledge-making, as well as practice and implementation.
This guide presents a joint effort of projects funded under the European Research Area for Climat... more This guide presents a joint effort of projects funded under the European Research Area for Climate Services (ERA4CS) (http://www.jpi-climate.eu/ERA4CS), a co- funded action initiated by JPI Climate with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462), 15 national public Research Funding Organisations (RFOs), and 30 Research Performing Organisations (RPOs) from 18 European countries. This guide sets out to increase the understanding of different pathways, methods, and approaches to improve knowledge co-production of climate services with users as a value-added activity of the ERA4CS Programme. Reflecting on the experiences of 16 of the 26 projects funded under ERA4CS, this guide aims to define and recommend good practices for transdisciplinary knowledge co-production of climate services to researchers, users, funding agencies, and private sector service providers. Drawing on responses from ERA4CS project teams to a questionnaire and interviews, this guide maps the diversity of method...
Routledge Handbook of the Resource Nexus, 2017
Demand for natural resources has grown rapidly for decades, and is expected to continue growing. ... more Demand for natural resources has grown rapidly for decades, and is expected to continue growing. These trends lead to repercussions, risks, and threats for humans and ecosystems at different scales. The challenges of sustainable resource management and governance are on numerous agendas, ranging from the G7 and G20 summits to UNEP’s International Resource Panel, World Economic Forum, SDG implementation, and a growing community of international scholars. Research highlights the importance of accounting for the interdependencies of resource use and sustainability goals such as eliminating hunger, mitigating climate change, and expanding energy access. There is a need to understand interdependencies and the feasibility of more integrated approaches. Debate is often framed in terms of a “nexus” between water, energy, and food (sometimes including other resources). The main aim of this handbook is to come to grips with what the nexus is about, provide a reference textbook with an overview, and a survey on emerging and cutting-edge research, and application of the concept. This handbook is edited by five dedicated scholars, drawing on different schools of thought from different continents. Assembling a wide group of more than 50 authors across a host of disciplines and interdisciplinary fields, this volume rests on a thorough review of relevant literature and, in emerging with a distinct and original perspective, it conceptualizes the resource nexus as a heuristic for understanding critical interlinkages between uses of different natural resources for systems of provision such as water, energy, and food. The editors organized a symposium which took place in London in March 2015, debating various aspects of the resource nexus and refining the concept and defining the structure of the handbook. All chapters have been reviewed several times.
Water plays a key role in the development and functioning of society by serving as a basic resour... more Water plays a key role in the development and functioning of society by serving as a basic resource for activities such as irrigation, livestock production, fisheries, aquaculture, and hydroelectric power. Adequate water use in house-holds, businesses and manufacturing is a prerequisite of economic growth. Since many of the world's diseases are waterborne, we need clean water and sanitation for reducing the incidence of these diseases. And, most significantly, water provides habitat and sustenance for a rich diversity of plant and animal species that make up aquatic and riparian ecosystems, providing the basis for many of the goods and services received by society. Society is forcing unprecedented changes on global water resources through worldwide abstraction and pollution of water. Society also has a pervasive indirect impact because anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are causing long-term global changes in weather extremes and climate. Changes in the global water system a...
Water Resources Research, 2020
Increasing population, change in consumption habits, and climate change will likely increase the ... more Increasing population, change in consumption habits, and climate change will likely increase the competition for freshwater resources in the future. Exploring ways to improve water productivity especially in food and livestock systems is important for tackling the future water challenge. Here we combine detailed data on feed use and livestock production with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) statistics and process‐based crop‐water model simulations to comprehensively assess water use and water productivity in the global livestock sector. We estimate that, annually, 4,387 km3 of blue and green water is used for the production of livestock feed, equaling about 41% of total agricultural water use. Livestock water productivity (LWP; protein produced per m3 of water) differs by several orders of magnitude between livestock types, regions, and production systems, indicating a large potential for improvements. For pigs and broilers, we identify large opportuniti...
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Freshwater ecosystems have been degraded due to intensive freshwater abstraction. Therefore, envi... more Freshwater ecosystems have been degraded due to intensive freshwater abstraction. Therefore, environmental flow requirements (EFRs) methods have been proposed to maintain healthy rivers and/or restore river flows. In this study, we used the Variable Monthly Flow (VMF) method to calculate the transgression of freshwater planetary boundaries: (1) natural deficits in which flow does not meet EFRs due to climate variability, and (2) anthropogenic deficits caused by water abstractions. The novelty is that we calculated spatially and cumulative monthly water deficits by river types including the frequency, magnitude and causes of environmental flow (EF) deficits (climatic and/or anthropogenic). Water deficit was found to be a regional rather than a global concern (less than 5% of total discharge). The results show that, from 1960 to 2000, perennial rivers with low flow alteration, such as the Amazon, had an EF deficit of 2–12% of the total discharge, and that the climate deficit was respo...
Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions, Sep 1, 2016
The planetary boundaries framework proposes quantitative global limits to the anthropogenic pertu... more The planetary boundaries framework proposes quantitative global limits to the anthropogenic perturbation of crucial Earth system processes, and thus marks out a planetary safe operating space for human activities. Yet, decisions regarding resource use and emissions are mostly made at less aggregated scales, by national and sub-national governments, businesses, and other local actors. To operationalize the planetary boundaries concept, the boundaries need to be translated into and aligned with targets that are relevant at these decision-making scales. In this paper, we develop a framework that addresses the biophysical, socioeconomic , and ethical dimensions of bridging across scales, to provide a consistently applicable approach for translating the planetary boundaries into national-level fair shares of Earth's safe operating space. We discuss our findings in the context of previous studies and their implications for future analyses and policymaking. In this way, we link the planetary boundaries framework to widely-applied operational and policy concepts for more robust strong sustainability decision-making.
Springer eBooks, Jan 5, 2012
The Mediterranean is one of the most vulnerable European regions to climate change, e.g. in terms... more The Mediterranean is one of the most vulnerable European regions to climate change, e.g. in terms of future water shortages, losses of agricultural potential and biome shifts. South-eastern Mediterranean countries differ significantly in their demographic and economic development and projected climatic changes – in particular aridification – from northern Mediterranean countries, making them generally more vulnerable. Climate change is but one driver of change in the Mediterranean, which interacts with other drivers such as land use change, urbanization, tourism, globalization etc. In combination, these drivers cause increasing pressure and often land and natural resource degradation, most prominently desertification in the south-eastern Mediterranean. CIRCE has assessed the vulnerability of agriculture and forestry as well as other ecosystem services, e.g. water provisioning and carbon storage. A range of different models at different scales have been employed to simulate these ecosystem services under global change for the full Mediterranean basin and sub-regions.
Journal of Hydrometeorology, Oct 1, 2011
This study compares, spatially explicitly and at global scale, per capita water availability and ... more This study compares, spatially explicitly and at global scale, per capita water availability and water requirements for food production presently (1971-2000) and in the future given climate and population change (2070-99). A vegetation and hydrology model Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) was used to calculate green and blue water availability per capita, water requirements to produce a balanced diet representing a benchmark for hunger alleviation [3000 kilocalories per capita per day (1 kilocalorie 5 4184 joules), here assumed to consist of 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products], and a new water scarcity indicator that relates the two at country scale. A country was considered water-scarce if its water availability fell below the water requirement for the specified diet, which is presently the case especially in North and East Africa and in southwestern Asia. Under climate (derived from 17 general circulation models) and population change (A2 and B1 emissions and population scenarios), water availability per person will most probably diminish in many regions. At the same time the calorie-specific water requirements tend to decrease, due mainly to the positive effect of rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration on crop water productivity-which, however, is very uncertain to be fully realized in most regions. As a net effect of climate, CO 2 , and population change, water scarcity will become aggravated in many countries, and a number of additional countries are at risk of losing their present capacity to produce a balanced diet for their inhabitants.
Natural Resources Forum, Nov 1, 2002
Floods and droughts are natural phenomena for which the risks of occurrence are likely to continu... more Floods and droughts are natural phenomena for which the risks of occurrence are likely to continue to grow. Increasing levels of exposure and insufficient adaptive capacity are among the factors responsible for the rising vulnerability. The former is conditioned by anthropopressure (e.g., economic development of flood-prone areas) and adverse effects of climate change; scenarios for future climates indicate the possibility of amplified water-related extremes. This article presents the current situation of coping with extreme hydrological events within the pressure-state-response framework. Among promising response strategies, the role of forecast and warning, and of watershed management are reviewed. Sample success stories and lessons learnt related to hydrological extremes are given and policy implications discussed.
Ecological Indicators, Jun 1, 2021
Livestock is important for livelihoods of millions of people across the world and yet climate cha... more Livestock is important for livelihoods of millions of people across the world and yet climate change risk and impacts assessments are predominantly on cropping systems. Climate change has significant impacts on Net Primary Production (NPP) which is a grassland dynamics indicator. This study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of NPP under climate scenario RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in the grassland of Tanzania by 2050 and link this to potential for key livestock species. To this end, a regression model to estimate NPP was developed based on temperature (T), precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET) during the period 2001-2019. NPP fluctuation maps under future scenarios were produced as difference maps of the current (2009-2019) and future (2050). The vulnerable areas whose NPP is mostly likely to get affected by climate change in 2050 were identified. The number of livestock units in grasslands was estimated according to NPP in grasslands of Tanzania at the Provincial levels. The results indicate the mean temperature and evapotranspiration are projected to increase under both emission scenarios while precipitation will decrease. NPP is significantly positively correlated with T max and ET and projected increases in these variables will be beneficial to NPP under climate change. Increases of 17% in 2050 under RCP8.5 scenario are projected, with the southern parts of the country projected to have the largest increase in NPP. The southwest areas showed a decreasing trend in mean NPP of 27.95% (RCP2.6) and 13.43% (RCP8.5). The highest decrease would occur in the RCP2.6 scenario in Ruvuma Province, by contrast, the mean NPP value in the western, eastern, and central parts would increase in 2050 under both Scenarios, the largest increase would observe in Kilimanjaro, DarEs -Salaam and Dodoma Provinces. It was found that the number of grazing livestock such as cattle, sheep, and goats will increase in the Tanzania grasslands under both climate scenarios. As the grassland ecosystems under intensive exploitation are fragile ecosystems, a combination of improving grassland productivity and grassland conservation under environmental pressures such as climate change should be considered for sustainable grassland management.
Environmental Research Letters, Oct 9, 2009
... Stefanie Rost1, Dieter Gerten1,4, Holger Hoff1,2, Wolfgang Lucht1, Malin Falkenmark3 and Joha... more ... Stefanie Rost1, Dieter Gerten1,4, Holger Hoff1,2, Wolfgang Lucht1, Malin Falkenmark3 and Johan Rockström2,3 ... Present climate 19712000 (a) OPT Maximum NPP ∗ under always saturated soil (b) BAS Baseline run including irrigation (c) INO BAS, but no irrigation (d) VS ...
Water Resources Research, Feb 14, 2009
Water, Jun 27, 2011
The Jordan River basin is subject to extreme and increasing water scarcity. Management of transbo... more The Jordan River basin is subject to extreme and increasing water scarcity. Management of transboundary water resources in the basin is closely intertwined with political conflicts in the region. We have jointly developed with stakeholders and experts from the riparian countries, a new dynamic consensus database and-supported by hydro-climatological model simulations and participatory scenario exercises in the GLOWA (Global Change and the Hydrological Cycle) Jordan River project-a basin-wide Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool, which will allow testing of various unilateral and multilateral adaptation options under climate and socioeconomic change. We present its validation and initial (climate and socioeconomic) scenario analyses with this budget and allocation tool, and invite further adaptation and application of the tool for specific Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) problems.
This third report in the Turn Down the Heat series covers three World Bank regions: Latin America... more This third report in the Turn Down the Heat series covers three World Bank regions: Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC); the Middle East and North Africa (MENA); and parts of Europe and Central Asia (ECA). The focus is on the risks of climate change to development. While covering a range of sectors, special attention is paid to projected impacts on food and energy systems, water resources, and ecosystem services. The report also considers the social vulnerability that could magnify or moderate the climate change repercussions for human well-being. The report complements the first Turn Down the Heat report (2012) that offered a global overview of climate change and its impacts in a 4 degrees Celsius world and concluded that impacts are expected to be felt disproportionately in developing countries around the equatorial regions. Also, it extends the analysis in the second report (2013) that focused on the consequences of climate change for present day, 2 degrees Celsius, and 4 degrees Celsius warming above pre-industrial levels in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and South East Asia and demonstrated the potential of early onset impacts at lower levels of warming.
ABSTRACT Scarcity often has its roots in water shortage, and it is in the arid and semiarid regio... more ABSTRACT Scarcity often has its roots in water shortage, and it is in the arid and semiarid regions affected by droughts and wide climate variability, combined with population growth and economic development, that the problems of water scarcity are most acute. The Merguellil watershed, situated in the center of Tunisia, represents exactly this state of fact where the agriculture is the main consumer with about 80% of the total water resources because of the continuous increase and intensification of irrigated area. The surface water can satisfy a very low portion of this demand; consequently, the groundwater is overexploited. The irrigation sector is divided into public and private. While the public irrigated areas are well known, the private ones are not sufficiently controlled mainly the water volumes pumped from the aquifer. Therefore, a sustainable management of all available water resources and meeting as much as possible all water demands, is crucial. To analyze the actual and future water balance of the Merguellil watershed, and to identify critical trends and thresholds and effective solutions, a WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning system) application has been developed. It utilizes a constrained optimization algorithm to allocate water among competing demands in a basin. The year 2009 is considered as the reference one which represents the basic definition of the water system as it currently exists, and forms the foundation of all scenarios analysis. Three scenarios were compared to the reference one. The first combines between the reduction of 10% in precipitation, as it is forseen by the regional climate model RCA (driven by ECHAM5) that provides statistic data of precipitation until 2050, and the increase of 2% per year in irrigated area in the kairouan plain deduced from the land use maps dating from 1991/1992 to 2009/2010 obtained by multi dates remote sensing data. The second scenario is the application of a deficit irrigation that respects the yield reduction related to each existing crop. The third one tests the effect of the three hypotheses together on the water resources: reduction in precipitation, increase in irrigated area and deficit irrigation. Merguellil WEAP model demonstrates how different management options to face water shortage can be evaluated and compared for future climate, land use change and technology development scenarios.
Berg Encyclopedia of World Dress and Fashion, 2010
For full bibliographic references please refer to the complete report. Nothing herein shall const... more For full bibliographic references please refer to the complete report. Nothing herein shall constitute or be considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.
Routledge eBooks, Dec 14, 2017
Demand for natural resources has grown rapidly for decades, and is expected to continue growing. ... more Demand for natural resources has grown rapidly for decades, and is expected to continue growing. These trends lead to repercussions, risks, and threats for humans and ecosystems at different scales. The challenges of sustainable resource management and governance are on numerous agendas, ranging from the G7 and G20 summits to UNEP's International Resource Panel, World Economic Forum, SDG implementation, and a growing community of international scholars. Research highlights the importance of accounting for the interdependencies of resource use and sustainability goals such as eliminating hunger, mitigating climate change, and expanding energy access. There is a need to understand interdependencies and the feasibility of more integrated approaches. Debate is often framed in terms of a "nexus" between water, energy, and food (sometimes including other resources). 1 The main aim of this handbook is to come to grips with what the nexus 2 is about, provide a reference textbook with an overview, and a survey on emerging and cutting-edge research, and application of the concept. This handbook enables readers to understand (Part I), measure (Part II), assess and model (Part III), compare political economies (Part IV), learn from applications (Part V), and upscale solutions (Part VI). The handbook's six parts and 32 chapters are carefully organized around these aims. As a whole, the handbook seeks to combine analytical rigor with attempts to be transformativei.e. shaping transformations towards sustainabilityin realms of research and knowledge-making, as well as practice and implementation.
This guide presents a joint effort of projects funded under the European Research Area for Climat... more This guide presents a joint effort of projects funded under the European Research Area for Climate Services (ERA4CS) (http://www.jpi-climate.eu/ERA4CS), a co- funded action initiated by JPI Climate with co-funding by the European Union (Grant 690462), 15 national public Research Funding Organisations (RFOs), and 30 Research Performing Organisations (RPOs) from 18 European countries. This guide sets out to increase the understanding of different pathways, methods, and approaches to improve knowledge co-production of climate services with users as a value-added activity of the ERA4CS Programme. Reflecting on the experiences of 16 of the 26 projects funded under ERA4CS, this guide aims to define and recommend good practices for transdisciplinary knowledge co-production of climate services to researchers, users, funding agencies, and private sector service providers. Drawing on responses from ERA4CS project teams to a questionnaire and interviews, this guide maps the diversity of method...
Routledge Handbook of the Resource Nexus, 2017
Demand for natural resources has grown rapidly for decades, and is expected to continue growing. ... more Demand for natural resources has grown rapidly for decades, and is expected to continue growing. These trends lead to repercussions, risks, and threats for humans and ecosystems at different scales. The challenges of sustainable resource management and governance are on numerous agendas, ranging from the G7 and G20 summits to UNEP’s International Resource Panel, World Economic Forum, SDG implementation, and a growing community of international scholars. Research highlights the importance of accounting for the interdependencies of resource use and sustainability goals such as eliminating hunger, mitigating climate change, and expanding energy access. There is a need to understand interdependencies and the feasibility of more integrated approaches. Debate is often framed in terms of a “nexus” between water, energy, and food (sometimes including other resources). The main aim of this handbook is to come to grips with what the nexus is about, provide a reference textbook with an overview, and a survey on emerging and cutting-edge research, and application of the concept. This handbook is edited by five dedicated scholars, drawing on different schools of thought from different continents. Assembling a wide group of more than 50 authors across a host of disciplines and interdisciplinary fields, this volume rests on a thorough review of relevant literature and, in emerging with a distinct and original perspective, it conceptualizes the resource nexus as a heuristic for understanding critical interlinkages between uses of different natural resources for systems of provision such as water, energy, and food. The editors organized a symposium which took place in London in March 2015, debating various aspects of the resource nexus and refining the concept and defining the structure of the handbook. All chapters have been reviewed several times.
Water plays a key role in the development and functioning of society by serving as a basic resour... more Water plays a key role in the development and functioning of society by serving as a basic resource for activities such as irrigation, livestock production, fisheries, aquaculture, and hydroelectric power. Adequate water use in house-holds, businesses and manufacturing is a prerequisite of economic growth. Since many of the world's diseases are waterborne, we need clean water and sanitation for reducing the incidence of these diseases. And, most significantly, water provides habitat and sustenance for a rich diversity of plant and animal species that make up aquatic and riparian ecosystems, providing the basis for many of the goods and services received by society. Society is forcing unprecedented changes on global water resources through worldwide abstraction and pollution of water. Society also has a pervasive indirect impact because anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are causing long-term global changes in weather extremes and climate. Changes in the global water system a...
Water Resources Research, 2020
Increasing population, change in consumption habits, and climate change will likely increase the ... more Increasing population, change in consumption habits, and climate change will likely increase the competition for freshwater resources in the future. Exploring ways to improve water productivity especially in food and livestock systems is important for tackling the future water challenge. Here we combine detailed data on feed use and livestock production with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) statistics and process‐based crop‐water model simulations to comprehensively assess water use and water productivity in the global livestock sector. We estimate that, annually, 4,387 km3 of blue and green water is used for the production of livestock feed, equaling about 41% of total agricultural water use. Livestock water productivity (LWP; protein produced per m3 of water) differs by several orders of magnitude between livestock types, regions, and production systems, indicating a large potential for improvements. For pigs and broilers, we identify large opportuniti...
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
Freshwater ecosystems have been degraded due to intensive freshwater abstraction. Therefore, envi... more Freshwater ecosystems have been degraded due to intensive freshwater abstraction. Therefore, environmental flow requirements (EFRs) methods have been proposed to maintain healthy rivers and/or restore river flows. In this study, we used the Variable Monthly Flow (VMF) method to calculate the transgression of freshwater planetary boundaries: (1) natural deficits in which flow does not meet EFRs due to climate variability, and (2) anthropogenic deficits caused by water abstractions. The novelty is that we calculated spatially and cumulative monthly water deficits by river types including the frequency, magnitude and causes of environmental flow (EF) deficits (climatic and/or anthropogenic). Water deficit was found to be a regional rather than a global concern (less than 5% of total discharge). The results show that, from 1960 to 2000, perennial rivers with low flow alteration, such as the Amazon, had an EF deficit of 2–12% of the total discharge, and that the climate deficit was respo...
Global Environmental Change-human and Policy Dimensions, Sep 1, 2016
The planetary boundaries framework proposes quantitative global limits to the anthropogenic pertu... more The planetary boundaries framework proposes quantitative global limits to the anthropogenic perturbation of crucial Earth system processes, and thus marks out a planetary safe operating space for human activities. Yet, decisions regarding resource use and emissions are mostly made at less aggregated scales, by national and sub-national governments, businesses, and other local actors. To operationalize the planetary boundaries concept, the boundaries need to be translated into and aligned with targets that are relevant at these decision-making scales. In this paper, we develop a framework that addresses the biophysical, socioeconomic , and ethical dimensions of bridging across scales, to provide a consistently applicable approach for translating the planetary boundaries into national-level fair shares of Earth's safe operating space. We discuss our findings in the context of previous studies and their implications for future analyses and policymaking. In this way, we link the planetary boundaries framework to widely-applied operational and policy concepts for more robust strong sustainability decision-making.
Springer eBooks, Jan 5, 2012
The Mediterranean is one of the most vulnerable European regions to climate change, e.g. in terms... more The Mediterranean is one of the most vulnerable European regions to climate change, e.g. in terms of future water shortages, losses of agricultural potential and biome shifts. South-eastern Mediterranean countries differ significantly in their demographic and economic development and projected climatic changes – in particular aridification – from northern Mediterranean countries, making them generally more vulnerable. Climate change is but one driver of change in the Mediterranean, which interacts with other drivers such as land use change, urbanization, tourism, globalization etc. In combination, these drivers cause increasing pressure and often land and natural resource degradation, most prominently desertification in the south-eastern Mediterranean. CIRCE has assessed the vulnerability of agriculture and forestry as well as other ecosystem services, e.g. water provisioning and carbon storage. A range of different models at different scales have been employed to simulate these ecosystem services under global change for the full Mediterranean basin and sub-regions.
Journal of Hydrometeorology, Oct 1, 2011
This study compares, spatially explicitly and at global scale, per capita water availability and ... more This study compares, spatially explicitly and at global scale, per capita water availability and water requirements for food production presently (1971-2000) and in the future given climate and population change (2070-99). A vegetation and hydrology model Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJmL) was used to calculate green and blue water availability per capita, water requirements to produce a balanced diet representing a benchmark for hunger alleviation [3000 kilocalories per capita per day (1 kilocalorie 5 4184 joules), here assumed to consist of 80% vegetal food and 20% animal products], and a new water scarcity indicator that relates the two at country scale. A country was considered water-scarce if its water availability fell below the water requirement for the specified diet, which is presently the case especially in North and East Africa and in southwestern Asia. Under climate (derived from 17 general circulation models) and population change (A2 and B1 emissions and population scenarios), water availability per person will most probably diminish in many regions. At the same time the calorie-specific water requirements tend to decrease, due mainly to the positive effect of rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration on crop water productivity-which, however, is very uncertain to be fully realized in most regions. As a net effect of climate, CO 2 , and population change, water scarcity will become aggravated in many countries, and a number of additional countries are at risk of losing their present capacity to produce a balanced diet for their inhabitants.
Natural Resources Forum, Nov 1, 2002
Floods and droughts are natural phenomena for which the risks of occurrence are likely to continu... more Floods and droughts are natural phenomena for which the risks of occurrence are likely to continue to grow. Increasing levels of exposure and insufficient adaptive capacity are among the factors responsible for the rising vulnerability. The former is conditioned by anthropopressure (e.g., economic development of flood-prone areas) and adverse effects of climate change; scenarios for future climates indicate the possibility of amplified water-related extremes. This article presents the current situation of coping with extreme hydrological events within the pressure-state-response framework. Among promising response strategies, the role of forecast and warning, and of watershed management are reviewed. Sample success stories and lessons learnt related to hydrological extremes are given and policy implications discussed.
Ecological Indicators, Jun 1, 2021
Livestock is important for livelihoods of millions of people across the world and yet climate cha... more Livestock is important for livelihoods of millions of people across the world and yet climate change risk and impacts assessments are predominantly on cropping systems. Climate change has significant impacts on Net Primary Production (NPP) which is a grassland dynamics indicator. This study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of NPP under climate scenario RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in the grassland of Tanzania by 2050 and link this to potential for key livestock species. To this end, a regression model to estimate NPP was developed based on temperature (T), precipitation (P) and evapotranspiration (ET) during the period 2001-2019. NPP fluctuation maps under future scenarios were produced as difference maps of the current (2009-2019) and future (2050). The vulnerable areas whose NPP is mostly likely to get affected by climate change in 2050 were identified. The number of livestock units in grasslands was estimated according to NPP in grasslands of Tanzania at the Provincial levels. The results indicate the mean temperature and evapotranspiration are projected to increase under both emission scenarios while precipitation will decrease. NPP is significantly positively correlated with T max and ET and projected increases in these variables will be beneficial to NPP under climate change. Increases of 17% in 2050 under RCP8.5 scenario are projected, with the southern parts of the country projected to have the largest increase in NPP. The southwest areas showed a decreasing trend in mean NPP of 27.95% (RCP2.6) and 13.43% (RCP8.5). The highest decrease would occur in the RCP2.6 scenario in Ruvuma Province, by contrast, the mean NPP value in the western, eastern, and central parts would increase in 2050 under both Scenarios, the largest increase would observe in Kilimanjaro, DarEs -Salaam and Dodoma Provinces. It was found that the number of grazing livestock such as cattle, sheep, and goats will increase in the Tanzania grasslands under both climate scenarios. As the grassland ecosystems under intensive exploitation are fragile ecosystems, a combination of improving grassland productivity and grassland conservation under environmental pressures such as climate change should be considered for sustainable grassland management.
Environmental Research Letters, Oct 9, 2009
... Stefanie Rost1, Dieter Gerten1,4, Holger Hoff1,2, Wolfgang Lucht1, Malin Falkenmark3 and Joha... more ... Stefanie Rost1, Dieter Gerten1,4, Holger Hoff1,2, Wolfgang Lucht1, Malin Falkenmark3 and Johan Rockström2,3 ... Present climate 19712000 (a) OPT Maximum NPP ∗ under always saturated soil (b) BAS Baseline run including irrigation (c) INO BAS, but no irrigation (d) VS ...
Water Resources Research, Feb 14, 2009
Water, Jun 27, 2011
The Jordan River basin is subject to extreme and increasing water scarcity. Management of transbo... more The Jordan River basin is subject to extreme and increasing water scarcity. Management of transboundary water resources in the basin is closely intertwined with political conflicts in the region. We have jointly developed with stakeholders and experts from the riparian countries, a new dynamic consensus database and-supported by hydro-climatological model simulations and participatory scenario exercises in the GLOWA (Global Change and the Hydrological Cycle) Jordan River project-a basin-wide Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool, which will allow testing of various unilateral and multilateral adaptation options under climate and socioeconomic change. We present its validation and initial (climate and socioeconomic) scenario analyses with this budget and allocation tool, and invite further adaptation and application of the tool for specific Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) problems.
This third report in the Turn Down the Heat series covers three World Bank regions: Latin America... more This third report in the Turn Down the Heat series covers three World Bank regions: Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC); the Middle East and North Africa (MENA); and parts of Europe and Central Asia (ECA). The focus is on the risks of climate change to development. While covering a range of sectors, special attention is paid to projected impacts on food and energy systems, water resources, and ecosystem services. The report also considers the social vulnerability that could magnify or moderate the climate change repercussions for human well-being. The report complements the first Turn Down the Heat report (2012) that offered a global overview of climate change and its impacts in a 4 degrees Celsius world and concluded that impacts are expected to be felt disproportionately in developing countries around the equatorial regions. Also, it extends the analysis in the second report (2013) that focused on the consequences of climate change for present day, 2 degrees Celsius, and 4 degrees Celsius warming above pre-industrial levels in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and South East Asia and demonstrated the potential of early onset impacts at lower levels of warming.