Ingo Piepers - Academia.edu (original) (raw)
Papers by Ingo Piepers
arXiv (Cornell University), Nov 30, 2006
The assumption that complex systems function optimally at the edge of chaos seems applicable to t... more The assumption that complex systems function optimally at the edge of chaos seems applicable to the international system as well. In this paper I argue that the normal chaotic war dynamic of the European international system (1495-1945) was temporarily (1657-1763) interrupted by a more simplified dynamic, resulting in more intense Great Power wars and in a delay of the reorganization of the international system in the 18th century.
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arXiv (Cornell University), Nov 21, 2006
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arXiv (Cornell University), Apr 24, 2006
In this paper I discuss the outcome of an exploratory research project based on complexity scienc... more In this paper I discuss the outcome of an exploratory research project based on complexity science concepts and theories; this research is focused on the Great Power war dynamics in the time period 1495 - 1945. According to this research, the international system has self-organized critical (SOC) characteristics. A critical point is the attractor of the international system. The war dynamics of Great Powers can be illustrated by a power law. As a result of a driving force, the international system is constantly being pushed toward this critical point. The security dilemma is a booster of this driving force. Tension and frustration build up in the international system as a result of various system thresholds, and are periodically discharged through wars. The SOC characteristics of the international system result in a punctuated equilibrium dynamic. The punctuations produce new international systems, each with its specific characteristics. A quantifiable development of the international system toward a condition of increased stability and reduced resilience can be observed. In addition to SOC characteristics, the international system exhibits characteristics of a chaotic system. Chaos, order and development are closely linked. The SOC dynamics generate a process of social expansion. It is possible to explain the social integration of Europe from this perspective.
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arXiv (Cornell University), Oct 23, 2014
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arXiv (Cornell University), Sep 22, 2014
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arXiv (Cornell University), Sep 30, 2008
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arXiv (Cornell University), Oct 10, 2006
Social systems must fulfil four basic functions to ensure their survival in competitive condition... more Social systems must fulfil four basic functions to ensure their survival in competitive conditions. Social systems must provide for: (1) energy and other necessities of life, (2) security against external and internal threats, (3) identity and self-development, and (4) consistency and direction. These functions result in four more or less autonomous aspect systems; these aspect systems interact. Between the variables of basic functions and variables of aspect systems, a minimal level of consistency is required to facilitate growth and development, and to ensure the (future) survivability of the social system. Sooner or later, growth, change, and differentiated development result in inconsistencies within/between basic functions and aspect systems. These inconsistencies affect the effectiveness and efficiency of these social systems to provide for the basic functions. Periodically, deliberate or spontaneous corrective adjustments of social systems are required, to correct for these inconsistencies.
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arXiv (Cornell University), Oct 15, 2009
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arXiv (Cornell University), Jul 3, 2007
Various self-organized characteristics of the international system can be identified with the hel... more Various self-organized characteristics of the international system can be identified with the help of a complexity science perspective. The perspective discussed in this article is based on various complexity science concepts and theories, and concepts related to ecology and ecosystems. It can be argued that the Great Power war dynamics of the international system in Europe during the period 1480-1945, showed self-organized critical (SOC) characteristics, resulting in a punctuated equilibrium dynamic. It seems that the SOC-characteristics of the international system and the punctuated equilibrium dynamic were - in combination with chaotic war dynamics - functional in a process of social expansion in Europe. According to a model presented in this article, population growth was a component of the driving force of the international system during this time frame. The findings of this exploratory research project contradict with generally held opinions in International Relations theory.
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arXiv (Cornell University), Mar 1, 2015
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arXiv (Cornell University), Jun 20, 2006
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The International System is a self-organized system that shows emergent behavior. During the time... more The International System is a self-organized system that shows emergent behavior. During the timeframe (1495-1945) covered in this study, a finite-time singularity and four accompanying accelerating log-periodic cycles shaped the dynamics of the International System. Each cycle began and ended with a systemic war. During their life span, these cycles show remarkable regularities in their dynamics. The accelerated growth of the connectivity of the regulatory network of the International System, in combination with its anarchistic structure, produce and shape the war dynamics of the system. The accelerated growth of the connectivity of the International System is fed by population growth and the need for social systems to fulfill basic requirements. The finite-time singularity and accompanying log-periodic oscillations were instrumental in the periodic reorganization of the regulatory network of the International System and contributed to a long-term process of social expansion and in...
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In this article I discuss the outcome of an exploratory research project based on complexity scie... more In this article I discuss the outcome of an exploratory research project based on complexity science concepts and theories; this research is focused on the Great Power war dynamics in the time period 1495 - 1945. According to this research, the international system has self-organized critical (SOC) characteristics. A critical point is the attractor of the international system. The war dynamics of Great Powers can be illustrated by a power law. As a result of a driving force, the international system is constantly being pushed toward this critical point. The security dilemma is a booster of this driving force. Tension and frustration build up in the international system as a result of various system thresholds, and are periodically discharged through wars. The SOC characteristics of the international system result in a punctuated equilibrium dynamic. The punctuations produce new international systems, each with its specific characteristics. A quantifiable development of the internati...
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In this paper I discuss the outcome of an exploratory research project based on complexity scienc... more In this paper I discuss the outcome of an exploratory research project based on complexity science concepts and theories; this research is focused on the Great Power war dynamics in the time period 1495 - 1945. According to this research, the international system has self-organized critical (SOC) characteristics. A critical point is the attractor of the international system. The war dynamics of Great Powers can be illustrated by a power law. As a result of a driving force, the international system is constantly being pushed toward this critical point. The security dilemma is a booster of this driving force. Tension and frustration build up in the international system as a result of various system thresholds, and are periodically discharged through wars. The SOC characteristics of the international system result in a punctuated equilibrium dynamic. The punctuations produce new international systems, each with its specific characteristics. A quantifiable development of the internation...
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arXiv: Physics and Society, 2014
The International System is a self-organized system that shows emergent behavior. During the time... more The International System is a self-organized system that shows emergent behavior. During the timeframe (1495-1945) covered in this study, a finite-time singularity and four accompanying accelerating log-periodic cycles shaped the dynamics of the International System. Each cycle began and ended with a systemic war. During their life span, these cycles show remarkable regularities in their dynamics. The accelerated growth of the connectivity of the regulatory network of the International System, in combination with its anarchistic structure, produce and shape the war dynamics of the system. The accelerated growth of the connectivity of the International System is fed by population growth and the need for social systems to fulfill basic requirements. The finite-time singularity and accompanying log-periodic oscillations were instrumental in the periodic reorganization of the regulatory network of the International System and contributed to a long-term process of social expansion and in...
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arXiv: Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems, 2008
The process of social expansion in Europe can be better understood with various concepts related ... more The process of social expansion in Europe can be better understood with various concepts related to complexity science. Findings of exploratory research show a typical process of social expansion in Europe within the period 1495-1945, in which wars have been instrumental. Furthermore, this research enables the identification of vulnerabilities, and conditions for success in a process of social expansion.
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arXiv: Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems, 2006
The assumption that complex systems function optimally at the edge of chaos seems applicable to t... more The assumption that complex systems function optimally at the edge of chaos seems applicable to the international system as well. In this paper I argue that the normal chaotic war dynamic of the European international system (1495-1945) was temporarily (1657-1763) interrupted by a more simplified dynamic, resulting in more intense Great Power wars and in a delay of the reorganization of the international system in the 18th century.
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arXiv: Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems, 2009
The risk of systemic war seems dependant on the level of criticality and sensitivity of the Inter... more The risk of systemic war seems dependant on the level of criticality and sensitivity of the International System, and the system's conditions. The level of criticality and sensitivity is dependant on the developmental stage of the International System. Initially, following a systemic war, the increase of the level of criticality and sensitivity go hand in hand. However, at a certain stage the sensitivity of the International System for larger sized wars decreases; as a consequence of a network effect, we argue. This network effect results in increased local stability of the System. During this phase the criticality of the International System steadily increases, resulting in a release deficit. This release deficit facilitates a necessary build up of energy to push the International System, by means of systemic war, into a new stability domain. Systemic war is functional in the periodic rebalancing of an anarchistic international system.
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The International System develops according to a clear logic: By means of systemic wars organisat... more The International System develops according to a clear logic: By means of systemic wars organisational innovations are periodically introduced, contributing to a process of social expansion and integration, and to wealth creation. A finite-time singularity accompanied by four accelerating log-periodic cycles can be identified during the time frame 1495-1945.
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A finite-time singularity accompanied by log-periodic oscillations shaped the war dynamics and de... more A finite-time singularity accompanied by log-periodic oscillations shaped the war dynamics and development of the International System during the period 1495 - 1945. The identification of this singularity provides us with a perspective to penetrate and decode the dynamics of the International System. Various regularities in the dynamics of the International System can be identified. These regularities are remarkably consistent, and can be attributed to the connectivity and the growth of connectivity of the International System.
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arXiv (Cornell University), Nov 30, 2006
The assumption that complex systems function optimally at the edge of chaos seems applicable to t... more The assumption that complex systems function optimally at the edge of chaos seems applicable to the international system as well. In this paper I argue that the normal chaotic war dynamic of the European international system (1495-1945) was temporarily (1657-1763) interrupted by a more simplified dynamic, resulting in more intense Great Power wars and in a delay of the reorganization of the international system in the 18th century.
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arXiv (Cornell University), Nov 21, 2006
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arXiv (Cornell University), Apr 24, 2006
In this paper I discuss the outcome of an exploratory research project based on complexity scienc... more In this paper I discuss the outcome of an exploratory research project based on complexity science concepts and theories; this research is focused on the Great Power war dynamics in the time period 1495 - 1945. According to this research, the international system has self-organized critical (SOC) characteristics. A critical point is the attractor of the international system. The war dynamics of Great Powers can be illustrated by a power law. As a result of a driving force, the international system is constantly being pushed toward this critical point. The security dilemma is a booster of this driving force. Tension and frustration build up in the international system as a result of various system thresholds, and are periodically discharged through wars. The SOC characteristics of the international system result in a punctuated equilibrium dynamic. The punctuations produce new international systems, each with its specific characteristics. A quantifiable development of the international system toward a condition of increased stability and reduced resilience can be observed. In addition to SOC characteristics, the international system exhibits characteristics of a chaotic system. Chaos, order and development are closely linked. The SOC dynamics generate a process of social expansion. It is possible to explain the social integration of Europe from this perspective.
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arXiv (Cornell University), Oct 23, 2014
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arXiv (Cornell University), Sep 22, 2014
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arXiv (Cornell University), Sep 30, 2008
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arXiv (Cornell University), Oct 10, 2006
Social systems must fulfil four basic functions to ensure their survival in competitive condition... more Social systems must fulfil four basic functions to ensure their survival in competitive conditions. Social systems must provide for: (1) energy and other necessities of life, (2) security against external and internal threats, (3) identity and self-development, and (4) consistency and direction. These functions result in four more or less autonomous aspect systems; these aspect systems interact. Between the variables of basic functions and variables of aspect systems, a minimal level of consistency is required to facilitate growth and development, and to ensure the (future) survivability of the social system. Sooner or later, growth, change, and differentiated development result in inconsistencies within/between basic functions and aspect systems. These inconsistencies affect the effectiveness and efficiency of these social systems to provide for the basic functions. Periodically, deliberate or spontaneous corrective adjustments of social systems are required, to correct for these inconsistencies.
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arXiv (Cornell University), Oct 15, 2009
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arXiv (Cornell University), Jul 3, 2007
Various self-organized characteristics of the international system can be identified with the hel... more Various self-organized characteristics of the international system can be identified with the help of a complexity science perspective. The perspective discussed in this article is based on various complexity science concepts and theories, and concepts related to ecology and ecosystems. It can be argued that the Great Power war dynamics of the international system in Europe during the period 1480-1945, showed self-organized critical (SOC) characteristics, resulting in a punctuated equilibrium dynamic. It seems that the SOC-characteristics of the international system and the punctuated equilibrium dynamic were - in combination with chaotic war dynamics - functional in a process of social expansion in Europe. According to a model presented in this article, population growth was a component of the driving force of the international system during this time frame. The findings of this exploratory research project contradict with generally held opinions in International Relations theory.
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arXiv (Cornell University), Mar 1, 2015
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arXiv (Cornell University), Jun 20, 2006
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The International System is a self-organized system that shows emergent behavior. During the time... more The International System is a self-organized system that shows emergent behavior. During the timeframe (1495-1945) covered in this study, a finite-time singularity and four accompanying accelerating log-periodic cycles shaped the dynamics of the International System. Each cycle began and ended with a systemic war. During their life span, these cycles show remarkable regularities in their dynamics. The accelerated growth of the connectivity of the regulatory network of the International System, in combination with its anarchistic structure, produce and shape the war dynamics of the system. The accelerated growth of the connectivity of the International System is fed by population growth and the need for social systems to fulfill basic requirements. The finite-time singularity and accompanying log-periodic oscillations were instrumental in the periodic reorganization of the regulatory network of the International System and contributed to a long-term process of social expansion and in...
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
In this article I discuss the outcome of an exploratory research project based on complexity scie... more In this article I discuss the outcome of an exploratory research project based on complexity science concepts and theories; this research is focused on the Great Power war dynamics in the time period 1495 - 1945. According to this research, the international system has self-organized critical (SOC) characteristics. A critical point is the attractor of the international system. The war dynamics of Great Powers can be illustrated by a power law. As a result of a driving force, the international system is constantly being pushed toward this critical point. The security dilemma is a booster of this driving force. Tension and frustration build up in the international system as a result of various system thresholds, and are periodically discharged through wars. The SOC characteristics of the international system result in a punctuated equilibrium dynamic. The punctuations produce new international systems, each with its specific characteristics. A quantifiable development of the internati...
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In this paper I discuss the outcome of an exploratory research project based on complexity scienc... more In this paper I discuss the outcome of an exploratory research project based on complexity science concepts and theories; this research is focused on the Great Power war dynamics in the time period 1495 - 1945. According to this research, the international system has self-organized critical (SOC) characteristics. A critical point is the attractor of the international system. The war dynamics of Great Powers can be illustrated by a power law. As a result of a driving force, the international system is constantly being pushed toward this critical point. The security dilemma is a booster of this driving force. Tension and frustration build up in the international system as a result of various system thresholds, and are periodically discharged through wars. The SOC characteristics of the international system result in a punctuated equilibrium dynamic. The punctuations produce new international systems, each with its specific characteristics. A quantifiable development of the internation...
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arXiv: Physics and Society, 2014
The International System is a self-organized system that shows emergent behavior. During the time... more The International System is a self-organized system that shows emergent behavior. During the timeframe (1495-1945) covered in this study, a finite-time singularity and four accompanying accelerating log-periodic cycles shaped the dynamics of the International System. Each cycle began and ended with a systemic war. During their life span, these cycles show remarkable regularities in their dynamics. The accelerated growth of the connectivity of the regulatory network of the International System, in combination with its anarchistic structure, produce and shape the war dynamics of the system. The accelerated growth of the connectivity of the International System is fed by population growth and the need for social systems to fulfill basic requirements. The finite-time singularity and accompanying log-periodic oscillations were instrumental in the periodic reorganization of the regulatory network of the International System and contributed to a long-term process of social expansion and in...
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arXiv: Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems, 2008
The process of social expansion in Europe can be better understood with various concepts related ... more The process of social expansion in Europe can be better understood with various concepts related to complexity science. Findings of exploratory research show a typical process of social expansion in Europe within the period 1495-1945, in which wars have been instrumental. Furthermore, this research enables the identification of vulnerabilities, and conditions for success in a process of social expansion.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
arXiv: Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems, 2006
The assumption that complex systems function optimally at the edge of chaos seems applicable to t... more The assumption that complex systems function optimally at the edge of chaos seems applicable to the international system as well. In this paper I argue that the normal chaotic war dynamic of the European international system (1495-1945) was temporarily (1657-1763) interrupted by a more simplified dynamic, resulting in more intense Great Power wars and in a delay of the reorganization of the international system in the 18th century.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
arXiv: Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems, 2009
The risk of systemic war seems dependant on the level of criticality and sensitivity of the Inter... more The risk of systemic war seems dependant on the level of criticality and sensitivity of the International System, and the system's conditions. The level of criticality and sensitivity is dependant on the developmental stage of the International System. Initially, following a systemic war, the increase of the level of criticality and sensitivity go hand in hand. However, at a certain stage the sensitivity of the International System for larger sized wars decreases; as a consequence of a network effect, we argue. This network effect results in increased local stability of the System. During this phase the criticality of the International System steadily increases, resulting in a release deficit. This release deficit facilitates a necessary build up of energy to push the International System, by means of systemic war, into a new stability domain. Systemic war is functional in the periodic rebalancing of an anarchistic international system.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
The International System develops according to a clear logic: By means of systemic wars organisat... more The International System develops according to a clear logic: By means of systemic wars organisational innovations are periodically introduced, contributing to a process of social expansion and integration, and to wealth creation. A finite-time singularity accompanied by four accelerating log-periodic cycles can be identified during the time frame 1495-1945.
Bookmarks Related papers MentionsView impact
A finite-time singularity accompanied by log-periodic oscillations shaped the war dynamics and de... more A finite-time singularity accompanied by log-periodic oscillations shaped the war dynamics and development of the International System during the period 1495 - 1945. The identification of this singularity provides us with a perspective to penetrate and decode the dynamics of the International System. Various regularities in the dynamics of the International System can be identified. These regularities are remarkably consistent, and can be attributed to the connectivity and the growth of connectivity of the International System.
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From Decline to Renewal
This work explores the inevitability of a transformation within the international order, of which... more This work explores the inevitability of a transformation within the international order, of which we are currently witnessing the initial stages.
Historical precedents, such as World War II, demonstrate that while such transitional periods entail significant risks, they also offer opportunities for structural improvements.
A thorough understanding and insight into these transformation processes is crucial (how do these operate?), as well as having a vision and strategy to guide these changes. This transformation can also be crucial for addressing the escalating climate crisis.
I advocate for a proactive approach. It is also essential that Europe increases its capacity to independently protect its values and interests. This requires better integration of its political and military forces. The book outlines a strategic framework for addressing this transformation, something that has been lacking until now.
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Patterns in War Dynamics, 2016
"Patterns in War Dynamics. WARning 2020". In this study, complexity and network science are appli... more "Patterns in War Dynamics. WARning 2020". In this study, complexity and network science are applied to the dynamics and development of the (International) System. This study shows that the System periodically becomes critical and produces "systemic wars". The typical dynamics that are revealed in this study are a consequence of laws of physics that apply also to the System. Systemic wars are instrumental in rebalancing the System, and in periodically producing "upgraded" international orders that allow for further growth and development. The patterns that can be observed in the war dynamics of the System, make it possible to predict these dynamics and the System's direction of development.
Data-analysis shows that the System will again become critical around 2020 (+/- two years).
This study shows that intensifying war dynamics pose an existential threat to human kind: Systemic wars will cause increasing damage and suffering and will put our climate system at (additional) risk: Fundamental change is a prerequisite for our survival.
This study was initially published in 2016. The publication "On the Thermodynamics of War and Social Evolution" (2019) provides a scientific explanation for the war dynamics that can be observed.
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On the Thermodynamics of War and Social Evolution, 2019
The study On the Thermodynamics of War and Social Evolution, shows that patterns can be identifie... more The study On the Thermodynamics of War and Social Evolution, shows that patterns can be identified in the war dynamics of the System, and that a relationship exists between these war dynamics and social evolution. The research suggests that Prigogine’s idea about non-equilibrium systems being able to attain highly ordered states in response to an increase of energy flux, can also be successfully applied to the social sciences. These new insights could have profound implications for our understanding of war (dynamics), and for our ability to better control and prevent war, in the future.I argue that the System can be considered a non-equilibrium system, and that the (relationship between) war dynamics - and the patterns they produce - and social evolution, can be explained from a (non-equilibrium) thermodynamic perspective: Interactions between components of the System (individual humans, communities, societies, states, etc.) are irreversible, and result in the production of entropy - tensions - in the System.
These tensions (entropy) serve as a source of order and are regulated by means of a dissipative structure that also puts kinetic activity (war) to use, to ensure the most efficient path to thermodynamic equilibrium of the System.
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Mass Shooting Cycles in American Society and the Route to Chaos, 2019
Periodic dynamics T = 8 yrs Per. dyn. T = 4 yrs Chaotic dyn. Period-doubling bifurcation Chaotic ... more Periodic dynamics T = 8 yrs Per. dyn. T = 4 yrs Chaotic dyn. Period-doubling bifurcation Chaotic bifurcation Route to chaos Ingo Piepers, GLOBAL4CAST, V 05/09/19 2 system. The changes in the behavior of MS-dynamics, during the period 1982-2019, from cycles with periodic characteristics (with T = 8 years, to T= 4 years), to aperiodic dynamics with chaotic characteristics, starting around 2016/2017, involved two bifurcations (respectively in 2008 and in 2016/2017). This process-characterized by a typical sequence of bifurcations and dynamics that can also be observed in other systems-is sometimes also referred to as the "route to chaos. A question is how American society can (and will) respond to an increasing frequency of mass shootings, with increasing numbers of fatalities, now that mass shooting dynamics have become chaotic: Will the route to chaos, a phrase/term in dynamical system sciences, also cause chaos in American society, in a social and political sense? The patterns that can be identified in mass shootings provide valuable insights in the mechanisms and systems that produce them, and furthermore provide clues to develop more effective strategies and policies to prevent and control these events. These preliminary conclusions are based on a limited data set, and further research and validation are required. Figure 2: Fatalities during mass shootings and presidential cycles (1985-2019). Fatalities in mass shootings and presidential cycles show remarkable regularities and consistency.
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The workings and impacts of dissipative structures, 2019
In this summary article I describe the workings and implications of dissipative structures in our... more In this summary article I describe the workings and implications of dissipative structures in our System.
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